Poll: Over Under 47 Wins

[dreamgreen]

Can't wait to break this thread out of the archives at the all-star break when we are 20-30 lol.

That's my prediction at the 50 game point with the current roster. Now if Danny makes a real move from now until than, brings in a true starter than we have to re-argue hehehe.

[dreamgreen]

We got a bunch of role players, 2 starters, and 1 borderline all star. The only guy that can make this team reach 40 wins is not even a player. 

Who are the 2 starters?
And when did we get a borderline all-start and who is it? I missed that signing!

I have us as the best and deepest bench in the league.

[LGC88]

I wish you would try to provide better evidence for your "playing down" theory. 

I don't know that I can really give you evidence.

I just know that it is well "known" (i.e. not proven, but accepted as truth) that the last couple months of the NBA season are kind of an extended garbage time for a lot of teams.

Yes, the Celts played and defeated a number of teams that were also in the playoff hunt, at least ostensibly, but that doesn't mean those teams weren't playing down.  The Celts "played down" to opponents for more than half the 2009-2010 season, and clearly they were "trying" to win.  They also clearly had it in them to play very, very well, as we saw in those playoffs.

The 2015 Celts winning games at a 54 win pace defies reason, based on the players on the roster.  So I believe there were other factors at play.  Factors that won't be in play for most of next season.  I think the team's performance in the playoffs kind of vindicated that belief.


I've made clear that I don't think it's as simple as other teams "playing down," but I do think that was a big part of it.

You know, the playoff race last year was extremely competitive.  There were a LOT of teams in both the East and the West which had very close records and had to fight until the very last games of the season in order to secure their seed in the playoffs.  There were a LOT of teams at the end of the season who still had a lot to play for.  Boston played a few of those teams towards the end as well.

Anyway regarding our team getting better at the end of the season - there is an theory I can project that can justify this as being more than just a fluke. 

This 'theory' however does involve the use of advanced statistics (specifically the 'Real Plus Minus' stat) so if you get don't believe in these stats stop reading now. 

My intention here is to propose a theory, not start an argument, and people seem to get offended by these stats when they tell a story that said person does not like to hear...so I thought I'd get that out of the way before I go any further.

Now, on to the theory.
 
Our run started pretty much right around the time we:
* Traded away Marcus Thornton, Jeff Green and Rajon Rondo
* Added Crowder, Thomas, Jerebko, Datome
* Had Olynyk return from injury
* Moved Smart to starting PG (and increased his minutes)

Now armed with that knowledge, let me throw out some stats for you:

Rajon Rondo:
ORPM: -3.54
DRPM: +0.34
RPM: -3.20
NBA Rank: 378/475 (top 80%) 

Jeff Green:
ORPM: -1.52
DRPM: -2.05
RPM: -3.57
NBA Rank: 396/475 (top 83%)

Marcus Thornton:
ORPM: -1.42
DRPM: -1.69
RPM:  -3.11
NBA Rank: 373/475 (top 79%)

Marcus Smart:
ORPM: +1.15
DRPM: +1.06
RPM: +2.21
NBA Rank: 67/475 (top 14%)

Kelly Olynyk:
ORPM: +1.80
DRPM: +1.71
RPM: +3.51
NBA Rank: 34/475 (top 7%)

Isaiah Thomas:
ORPM: +4.12
DRPM: -2.67
RPM: +1.45
NBA Rank: 92/475 (top 19%)

Jae Crowder:
ORPM: +0.62
DRPM: -1.06
RPM: -0.44
NBA Rank: 176/475 (top 37%

Jonas Jerebko:
ORPM: +0.93
DRPM: +1.66
RPM: +1.59
NBA Rank: 56/475 (top 12%)

Luigi Datome:
ORPM: -0.19
DRPM: +0.19
RPM: +0.00
NBA Rank: 151/475 (top 32%)

We basically removed three guys from our rotation, all of whom had an RPM that ranked in the bottom fifth of the league.  In theory, the removal of those three guys (on it's own) should have improved our team to some degree, since their stats indicate that they made the team significantly worse while they were on the floor.

We also gave additional court time to 5 players who all had an RPM that was up around the top 1/3 of the league - three positive, one neutral, and one only slightly negative.  Of court the net of all those guys would have been positive, so giving more minutes to those 5 guys should have improved our team once again.

Ironically, the degree of improvement our team showed was pretty much in line with the degree of improvement in RPM those new guys had over the old guys we got rid of.

Now, we all know Brad Stevens is huge on analytics, so you have to ask the question - was this result an accident/coincidence, or did Brad Steven's specifically make those trades/roster changes BECAUSE of those statistics?

We can't possibly know because we can't get in to BS head, but if you look at all the moves we've mad since BS came on board, It's hard not to be convinced that the correlation between those events (the roster changes, the RPM variance, and our great playoff run) were not by accident.

For example, we just signed Amir Johnson and it looks increasingly likely that we are going to let Brandon Bass go as a free agent.  RPM stats for Bass and Johnson...

Brandon Bass:
ORPM: -1.41
DRPM: -0.20
RPM: -1.41
NBA Rank: 249/475 (top 52%)

Amir Johnson:
ORPM: +0.50
DRPM: +1.31
RPM: +1.81
NBA Rank: 85/475 (top 18%)

Since Stevens came on board, all of the guys on our team with significantly negative RPM's have started slowly leaving (either via trades or free agency) and and being rplaced by guys who conveniently have significantly better positive RPM ratings.

It's hard to imagine this is a coincidence, because many of those guys (Datome, Jerebko, Crowder, etc) are guys who half of us had never heard of, and left us thinking "huh..who?".  Yet as soon as those guys came we fell in love with their apparent ability to make winning plays.

Off the top of my head, the only guys on our roster now with an RPM worse tan -0.5 are:

James Young
Phil Pressey
Evan Turner
Gerald Wallace

* Young was a rookie who barely played, so they aren't going to ditch him based on a small sample size of RPM stats in his rookie year.

* Wallace barely played, and would have been gone long ago if anybody wanted him.

* Pressey is highly unlikly to return this year with Thomas, Smart, Bradley, Rozier and Thornton on the team. 

Turner is the only guy who has any real role on the team, yet the re-signing of Crowder and Jerebko (to fairly lucrative deals) combined with the fact that we have Hunter and Young, would indicate that he's probably not sticking around for long.

Just seems to me like all those negative RPM guys are being phased out slowly, with neutral/positive RPM guys being brought in to replace them.  With Steven's known favoritism towards analytics I find it hard to believe that this is coincidental. 

From what I can see Danny's Plan A is to bring star players to Boston.  If/when that fails he moves to Plan B - support/role players who add wins.

Just some food for throught.

Very nice analysis. Thank you for your work, TP.
This is very interesting. I'm going to check on Drew Cannon's videos on youtube if he talks about that.

[KG Living Legend]

Look, last offseason we very clearly were trying to build around Rondo by bringing in Kevin Love and trying to compete immediately.  We failed that plan and we were forced to change direction.

At some point, it became clear that our best course of action was to cash in on the vets, bottom out and keep building around youth.  Everything about this team smelled mediocre.  We took a 25 win team (from 2013-14) and removed the two best players on the roster (Rondo and Green).  Everyone understood what was going on here... we wanted to land a star prospect and try to build this thing organically. 

Ainge himself was very clear with his thoughts on the matter.  He specifically mentioned in interviews that he saw no point in making the playoffs if the team couldn't compete.   It's about as transparent as an NBA GM can get... Landing a top draft pick is better than winning a "participation badge" in a 4 game playoff curb-stomping.   

I know there is always going to be people in denial who doubt the common narrative even when it's blatantly clear it's true (I argued for years with folks who swore there was no way Ainge was trying to trade Rondo even though it was abundantly clear the Celtics were exploring it).   Well we've seen multiple articles that suggest Ainge wasn't entirely happy about our doomed playoff appearance and would have preferred a draft pick.  This falls in line with everything we know about Ainge and how he builds basketball teams.   Ainge will try his best to make due with the limited/weak assets he has at his disposal, but I don't think there's any doubt that Ainge would have preferred to have a top 5 pick in this draft to either offer up in trade packages or pair with Marcus Smart to start forming building blocks for the future.

Overall point... on paper, this is a 25 win team.   Ainge took a literal 25 win team (from 2013-14) and got rid of a couple of the best players...   Yes, he landed Thomas for a late 1st (likely seeing Thomas as a more tradeable chip down the line than the late pick), but this very much was a team designed to bottom out.   On paper... 25 wins.  As many Sports analysts mentioned, there might not be a single player on the Celtics that would start for a top-tier team.  Certainly not for Golden State.  Our best player would be, at best, the 8th best guy on the Warriors.  It's a credit to Brad Stevens and his otherwordly coaching magic that we won 40.   It's proof that "on paper" doesn't always translate to reality.    So the question is whether or not Stevens can once again get this team of 25 win talent to 40 again.  I doubt it.  47?  No way.   Of course, none of this matters if Ainge hits a few home runs this summer and gets some real talent here.

 This is the thread I was trying to find. Come on Lar, 25 Wins? A simple my bad would go a long way in many posters minds..

 I'm sure your glad to be wrong though.

[KG Living Legend]

The Celtics went 24-12 over their final 36 games, with a roster that for the most part looked like the one we ended the season with as opposed to the fluctuating one we had the first three months.  That's a 54 win pace.  Heck, even if you take away the two wins vs. the resting Cavs at the end of the year, they'd still be on a 50 win pace.  I'm not saying they'll win 54 games with no changes next year, but at the same time, it does imply that 48 wins is well within their reach.  Add to it that they have the flexibility to upgrade the roster, yeah, I'm taking the over.

 500th Tp to you my good Man. In Heinsight the Salty One looks pretty Smart.

[KG Living Legend]

 I actually thought long and hard about the Over Under Number. I was one of the Minority "Delusional" voters that thought we could win 48 Games.

 Many were really sleeping on Coach Stevens.


 And where the heck is DOS?? He owes you 100 Tommy Points Salt Lover!!!

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Can't wait to break this thread out of the archives at the all-star break when we are 20-30 lol.

That's my prediction at the 50 game point with the current roster. Now if Danny makes a real move from now until than, brings in a true starter than we have to re-argue hehehe.

This...

[tarheelsxxiii]

So much aggression in this thread. Very interesting

I agree with everyone. Go Maple Leafs.

So glad to see I made a silly comment instead of a very stupid one (e.g., "38 wins, max!"). Rare occasion.

I miss D.o.s., too.

[KG Living Legend]

 Tp Tarheels, I liked your comment too.

[KG Living Legend]

Anyone that thinks we are going to be better as of right now is totally delusional!!

We are bringing back the same roster just paying them more, adding Amir a bench player and drastically over paying for him will not make us any better what so ever.

I like Jerebko and $5m seems ok for him.
I like Crowder but $7m for him seems like an over pay.
Amir for $12m is insane.

Overpaying bench players is not going to give us more wins. Thinking we are going to duplicate the run that we had at the end of last season is unrealistic, most the teams we played sucked and some of them will get better.

Like to add that the reality of IT will kick in, people will see he's a ball hog that wants to play hero ball. Instead of him being applauded by all-star break people here will want him shipped out ASAP.

With our current team unless the players get a lot better this is a 37 win team next year, looking at the 10-12 pick, as many say here - NBA Purgatory.

 Holy crap this poster didn't do too well here.

[alldaboston]

Anyone that thinks we are going to be better as of right now is totally delusional!!

We are bringing back the same roster just paying them more, adding Amir a bench player and drastically over paying for him will not make us any better what so ever.

I like Jerebko and $5m seems ok for him.
I like Crowder but $7m for him seems like an over pay.
Amir for $12m is insane.

Overpaying bench players is not going to give us more wins. Thinking we are going to duplicate the run that we had at the end of last season is unrealistic, most the teams we played sucked and some of them will get better.

Like to add that the reality of IT will kick in, people will see he's a ball hog that wants to play hero ball. Instead of him being applauded by all-star break people here will want him shipped out ASAP.

With our current team unless the players get a lot better this is a 37 win team next year, looking at the 10-12 pick, as many say here - NBA Purgatory.

 Holy crap this poster didn't do too well here.

Wow. It's amazing how much a season can do for you.

Crowder isn't seen as an overpay any longer.
Amir has been a key part of our defense this year.
Neither is a bench player.
Isaiah is an All Star, certainty no one wants him shipped out.
We are in 3rd in the east, certainly not "purgatory".
We currently have 37 wins, would need to lose every game the rest of the way (God forbid).

[fubar089]

[Celtics4ever]

We are in 3rd in the east, certainly not "purgatory".

We are fun to watch too.

[saltlover]

The Celtics went 24-12 over their final 36 games, with a roster that for the most part looked like the one we ended the season with as opposed to the fluctuating one we had the first three months.  That's a 54 win pace.  Heck, even if you take away the two wins vs. the resting Cavs at the end of the year, they'd still be on a 50 win pace.  I'm not saying they'll win 54 games with no changes next year, but at the same time, it does imply that 48 wins is well within their reach.  Add to it that they have the flexibility to upgrade the roster, yeah, I'm taking the over.

 500th Tp to you my good Man. In Heinsight the Salty One looks pretty Smart.

Haha, thanks! I've been intentionally not reviving this thread because I don't want to say "I told you so" too early and jinx things, but this was my favorite thread of the offseason.  It's making me look really good right now.

[Donoghus]

Under.

Way to go Nostradamus.