Cousins and Nerlens Noel Frontcourt

[gpap]

And the Noel love fest on CB continues

[BornReady]

Why smart and sully gone

Ainge is more likely to trade Bradley, Thomas and olynyk

[Celtics18]

He just put up historical defensive numbers for a player his age.  He's already a top 5-10 defensive player in the league

The first sentence is true, the second isn't. 

In terms of blocks and steals, very few players have put them together in combination like Noel has.  He's an active defender, and fills up the stat sheet.

However, he's still a work in progress.  If you look at his synergy stats, there were some areas of defense that he really struggled with.

Didn't he finish 8th in the league defensive rating?  I remember reading that post all-star break, philly had the best defense in the entire league in minutes noel was on the court.   He also limited opponents to 45% shooting at the rim... 6th in the league.

Big Al finsihed 14th and Scola 20th so they're both top 20 defenders.

Neat.  Where are the stats disproving Noel's defensive dominance as a 20 year old rookie coming off major surgery with a single limited season of college ball on his resume?  Only 20 times has anyone put up his blocks and steals... 10 of times times were Hakeem.  For the season philly was a top 12 defense.  24th with noel on the bench.  Top 3 with him playing.  You aren't getting a player with his potential for mediocre picks and players. It will take a package built around Marcus smart.

Side note:  in lowes recent podcast they actually talked about how Kevin love should study Luis scola to learn how to play defense with limited physical gifts.  They mentioned how Frank Vogel shows tape of him to reach young prospects verticality... Since he has none and makes the most of it with effort and defensive intangibles. So I'm not sure why you listed him...

I agree that Scola's poor defensive reputation isn't deserved.  He was fairly good last year.

In terms of the stats I was referencing:

He ranks in the bottom 37th percentile in terms of points allowed per possession in the post;

He ranks in the bottom 33rd percentile defensively on isolation plays;

He ranks in the bottom 24th percentile in points allowed per possession on spot-ups;

He ranks in the bottom 19th percentile in defending the pick-and-roll (roll man)

Ranking in the bottom third of the league in so many key defensive areas makes me question his defense, despite his number of steals and blocks.  Like a lot of young guys, he appears to be going for flashy plays, rather than solid defensive fundamentals.  I expect he'll develop, but he's realistically not even a good defender in a lot of areas now, let alone a great one.

I don't get how if he's so bad in all those specific areas, how the Sixers are so much better overall defensively when he's on the floor?

What gives?

Also, Roy, I'd love it if you would share a link to the site where those stats come from.  Thanks, and TPs, in advance. 

[MBunge]

You know, there are times when you really just have to employ common sense.

If Noel is a top 10 defensive force as a 21 year old rookie, what is he going to be when he's 28?  Is he going to average a double-double in blocks and steals?

Mike

[Celtics18]

You know, there are times when you really just have to employ common sense.

If Noel is a top 10 defensive force as a 21 year old rookie, what is he going to be when he's 28?  Is he going to average a double-double in blocks and steals?

Mike

That's some twisted "common sense" right there. 

[colincb]

You know, there are times when you really just have to employ common sense.

If Noel is a top 10 defensive force as a 21 year old rookie, what is he going to be when he's 28?  Is he going to average a double-double in blocks and steals?

Mike

Odds appear very slim.

The career blocks per game leader (Mark Eaton) had a 3.5 BPG average.  The career steals per game leader (Alvin Robinson) had a 2.71 SPG average.

Would think the odds go down when Sixers move Noel to PF.

[LarBrd33]

Larbrd, it says in the original post that smart and sully are gone that's why the back court was Bradley Thomas, cause Bradley is not the best chip with his salary.

Yeah that's my point.  Unless we have two Marcus Smarts, I don't see how we trade for a frontcourt of Cousins and Noel.   We'd have to include him in a trade for either guy.  That's not to say that either guy is even available or that our package (built around Smart) would be the best offer they'd get.   If I have Cousins or Noel on my team, there's no way I trade either for a package of mediocrity headlined by Marcus Smart.  I like Smart, but if I'm a GM of Philly or the Kings, I'm getting something better than Smart from a different team.     

[krumeto]

My initial reaction was "Wow, if the Sixers pull that off, that team can be the real deal".

Seriously, Embiid + Jeremy Grant + 3 picks (excluding this year's)? They'd have Noel and Cousins + say D'Angelo and cap room.

[LarBrd33]

He just put up historical defensive numbers for a player his age.  He's already a top 5-10 defensive player in the league

The first sentence is true, the second isn't. 

In terms of blocks and steals, very few players have put them together in combination like Noel has.  He's an active defender, and fills up the stat sheet.

However, he's still a work in progress.  If you look at his synergy stats, there were some areas of defense that he really struggled with.

Didn't he finish 8th in the league defensive rating?  I remember reading that post all-star break, philly had the best defense in the entire league in minutes noel was on the court.   He also limited opponents to 45% shooting at the rim... 6th in the league.

Big Al finsihed 14th and Scola 20th so they're both top 20 defenders.

Neat.  Where are the stats disproving Noel's defensive dominance as a 20 year old rookie coming off major surgery with a single limited season of college ball on his resume?  Only 20 times has anyone put up his blocks and steals... 10 of times times were Hakeem.  For the season philly was a top 12 defense.  24th with noel on the bench.  Top 3 with him playing.  You aren't getting a player with his potential for mediocre picks and players. It will take a package built around Marcus smart.

Side note:  in lowes recent podcast they actually talked about how Kevin love should study Luis scola to learn how to play defense with limited physical gifts.  They mentioned how Frank Vogel shows tape of him to reach young prospects verticality... Since he has none and makes the most of it with effort and defensive intangibles. So I'm not sure why you listed him...

I agree that Scola's poor defensive reputation isn't deserved.  He was fairly good last year.

In terms of the stats I was referencing:

He ranks in the bottom 37th percentile in terms of points allowed per possession in the post;

He ranks in the bottom 33rd percentile defensively on isolation plays;

He ranks in the bottom 24th percentile in points allowed per possession on spot-ups;

He ranks in the bottom 19th percentile in defending the pick-and-roll (roll man)

Ranking in the bottom third of the league in so many key defensive areas makes me question his defense, despite his number of steals and blocks.  Like a lot of young guys, he appears to be going for flashy plays, rather than solid defensive fundamentals.  I expect he'll develop, but he's realistically not even a good defender in a lot of areas now, let alone a great one.

I don't get how if he's so bad in all those specific areas, how the Sixers are so much better overall defensively when he's on the floor?

What gives?

Also, Roy, I'd love it if you would share a link to the site where those stats come from.  Thanks, and TPs, in advance.

TP to Roy as well.  Found an article that touches on some of this:  http://www.sbnation.com/2015/3/4/8149083/nerlens-noel-defense-76ers-synergy-statistics-2015

The consensus there seems to be the same consensus that I heard from David Thorpe on ESPN last season.  Noel is already an uncanny defensive player and he'll only get better as he's surrounded by teammates with actual talent.  He's forced to cover for a lot of them right now.  Unlike offensive ability (which can be inflated on a bad team), Noels' defensive ability can really only get better from here on out.   There are few young players in this league with his potential to impact the game on that end.  Can't see Philly moving him for an even bigger question mark.   It's the same silly argument this forum had a couple years ago about Andre Drummond.  When a team has an elite big man prospect (especially one with the ability to carry a team's defense), you aren't trading him without getting all-star talent back in return. 

[iadera]

There's no way we could get cousins or noel without including Marcus smart in a package.  No chance at both.

Will you stop this now?

Trade rumours threads are a form of entertainment and you are spoiling the good fun.

Fun > Reality by a large margin.

Yes. And who says it doesn't include Smart??

[I told you so]

The frontcourt this post refers to is significantly more likely to happen in Philly than in Boston.  God forbid!! 

[LarBrd33]

The frontcourt this post refers to is significantly more likely to happen in Philly than in Boston.  God forbid!! 

Really good point... And that's partially why I don't think Boston has a shot at either.  If someone like cousins becomes available, you never know if the Lakers will include Okafor, the Knicks will include #4 or philly will include embiid.  If they are looking for prospects, the Marcus Smart package from Boston probably gets outbid.  If they are looking for established talent (a Ty Lawson or a demar derozan), we also don't stand much a chance.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

He just put up historical defensive numbers for a player his age.  He's already a top 5-10 defensive player in the league

The first sentence is true, the second isn't. 

In terms of blocks and steals, very few players have put them together in combination like Noel has.  He's an active defender, and fills up the stat sheet.

However, he's still a work in progress.  If you look at his synergy stats, there were some areas of defense that he really struggled with.

Didn't he finish 8th in the league defensive rating?  I remember reading that post all-star break, philly had the best defense in the entire league in minutes noel was on the court.   He also limited opponents to 45% shooting at the rim... 6th in the league.

Big Al finsihed 14th and Scola 20th so they're both top 20 defenders.

Neat.  Where are the stats disproving Noel's defensive dominance as a 20 year old rookie coming off major surgery with a single limited season of college ball on his resume?  Only 20 times has anyone put up his blocks and steals... 10 of times times were Hakeem.  For the season philly was a top 12 defense.  24th with noel on the bench.  Top 3 with him playing.  You aren't getting a player with his potential for mediocre picks and players. It will take a package built around Marcus smart.

Listen, you could harp about him being a good defender all you want, which I'm not denying, only disagreeing at the pedestal (top 5-10 defender) you have him at. However, what you won't dare touch, and continue to ignore, is what a below average offensive player he is. Have you seen any improvement in him offensively since he was at Kentucky? So essentially what you're saying is that it would take Smart, #16 pick (say Portis), and "a lot more" for a one way player?

He's shooting 8% better on FTs, he's a good passer and he's a good finisher at the rim. He also built a jump shot more or less from scratch this offseason and got it to bad, but not unwatchable by the end of the season.

Any Center who can pass out of the post and finish at the rim can be a useful offensive player. If Marcus Smart continues to struggle at the rim and the 3pt shot plateaus here he's a much less useful player than Noel offensively.

As far as Gobert vs Noel, not really sure how you can look at Gobert's age 21 season and Noel's age 20 season and not come away leaning towards Noel...