What the Cavs have done in these playoffs is impressive. They have peaked at the right time. However, I think their success is highly overvalued.
Much has been made about the level of their competition, but I wanted to look at a little differently. The Cavs' style of play changed after Love went down. They maintained a focus on three point shooting, but they also maximized offensive rebounding. Generally speaking, I think most people think the front courts in this series are a wash due to the way that Mozgov and Thompson are playing. Most people see Mozgov-Thompson as pretty much the same thing as Bogut-Green.
In High School games, bigger and more athletic teams will general win, but they also form bad habits. They learn to rely on their ability to bully smaller schools through offensive rebounds. The problem is that when they face a school with similar athletes, they have bad offensive habits. Essentially, what was their greatest strength becomes their greatest weakness against a comparable teams with better habits.
Mozgov and Thompson have had a good playoff run against Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Paul Milsap, and Al Horford. Mozgov is taller, longer and thicker than every one of those players.
Mozgov and Thompson have not faced Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Marc Gasol, Zac Randolph, Dwight Howard, or Josh Smith. Green and Bogut have.
Mozgov's rebounds per chance percentage has been 55% in the post season against the Eastern Conference. Thompson's rebounds per chance percentage was 55% in the post season.
Bogut and Green are both at 66%- all the while playing bigger, more athletic, better rebounding competition.
That doesn't touch on the fact that, this post-season, Bogut (39% ofg at the rim) and Green (46%) are better rim protectors against better competition than Mozgov (41%) and Thompson (53%). Or how Bogut (2 apg) and Green (5) are better passers than Mozgov (.5) and Thompson (.5). Or how Green is a much better shooter and much more versatile defender than Thompson. Or how the Warriors have more, better, bigs to throw in the game (Speights, Ezeli, Lee) than the Cavs (Perkins).
The dirty little secret is that the Warriors have been bullying teams all season long inside, even though the Splash brothers get all the accolades (and rightly so). The Cavs have relied on bad offensive habits to get them through the smaller Eastern Conference, but they are about to face a team that is just as big and athletic (if not more), who are better at rebounding and have better offensive habits.
In other words, they are about to be out-bullied.
Their offense will rely heavily on Lebron James isos and JR Smith threes from 28 feet, but they will not be able to get as many rebounds and scramble threes. Lebron James is probably good for at least one win for the Cavs. But I think this series ends in game 5 in Oakland.
Topic: Comparing the Cavs to a High School Team (Read 1279 times)