Poll

Would you accept the deal?

Yes
62 (91.2%)
No
6 (8.8%)

Total Members Voted: 68

Author Topic: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick  (Read 10217 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #30 on: May 28, 2015, 11:29:36 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469
It's 13 to 2 in favor right now.

I think some people are misreading the question.  It's would you trade Kelly and the number 16 for the number 8 pick.  It's not Kelly straight up for the number eight. 



Yes, I would trade Kelly + #16 for #8.

The Celtics would get to select one of Porzingis, Hezonja, Cauley-Stein, or Winslow in that range -- or even Stanley Johnson, if they prefer.  I like KO, but I think his future is as a playmaking 4/5 off the bench.  At #8, I think the Celtics could get a long term starter. 

Everything I've read says that picking in the middle of this draft is a bad place to be, so I'd be more than willing to trade a useful bench big who is already 24 years old for a shot at a two-way player who can nail down a starting role on the team.

I think Kelly can be a long term starter at the four or the five with the right surrounding cast.

I guess I'm a distinct minority, though. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #31 on: May 28, 2015, 11:41:03 PM »

Offline hpantazo

  • Kevin McHale
  • ************************
  • Posts: 24878
  • Tommy Points: 2697
I think you have to do it. Kelly was a non-factor for our resurgence and playoff run. The #8 pick could get us a rim protector

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #32 on: May 28, 2015, 11:45:02 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469
I think you have to do it. Kelly was a non-factor for our resurgence and playoff run. The #8 pick could get us a rim protector

While it's true that he struggled in the playoffs, it's not true that he was a non-factor in our late season run to reach the playoffs.

He was a big factor in that run.
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #33 on: May 28, 2015, 11:57:31 PM »

Offline GzUP617

  • Derrick White
  • Posts: 265
  • Tommy Points: 12
It's 13 to 2 in favor right now.

I think some people are misreading the question.  It's would you trade Kelly and the number 16 for the number 8 pick.  It's not Kelly straight up for the number eight. 


 


Yes, I would trade Kelly + #16 for #8.

The Celtics would get to select one of Porzingis, Hezonja, Cauley-Stein, or Winslow in that range -- or even Stanley Johnson, if they prefer.  I like KO, but I think his future is as a playmaking 4/5 off the bench.  At #8, I think the Celtics could get a long term starter. 

Everything I've read says that picking in the middle of this draft is a bad place to be, so I'd be more than willing to trade a useful bench big who is already 24 years old for a shot at a two-way player who can nail down a starting role on the team.

I think Kelly can be a long term starter at the four or the five with the right surrounding cast.

I guess I'm a distinct minority, though.

Add me to this list,  I'd much rather give up Sully + the 16th pick for the 8th.

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #34 on: May 29, 2015, 12:13:55 AM »

Offline Bucketgetter

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1227
  • Tommy Points: 11
KO has nothing resembling this type of trade value. He might have enough to move up 3 spots maybe. If he did this would have happened a long time ago

No it wouldn't.  I doubt Danny has offered anyone that package. 

So, you basically think Danny has offered to swap, say the 13th pick with Phoenix for our 16th pick and Kelly Olynyk, and he's been turned down?

Doesn't sound plausible to me.
He's saying if Kelly+16 was worth the 8th pick this deal would have happened a long time ago, not Kelly+16 for 13. That is what he thinks KO is actually worth.
CB Mock Deadline - Minnesota Timberwolves
Kemba Walker / Tyus Jones / Aaron Brooks
Jimmy Butler / Jamal Crawford / Treveon Graham
Rodney Hood / Nic Batum / Marcus Georges Hunt
Taj Gibson / Nemanja Bjelica / Jonas Jerebko
KAT / Derrick Favors / Cole Aldrich
Picks - 2018 CHA 1st (Lotto protected), none out

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #35 on: May 29, 2015, 12:54:49 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3173
  • Tommy Points: 182
I disagree with the meme - if Kelly + 16 were worth the 8th, it would have been done a long time ago.

1.  Drafting is very player dependent.  It depends on WHO is available at the #8 pick.

Consider the players taken at #8 in the draft in the past 30 years.  How many of those turned into star players?

Out of the following list of 8th overall picks, I would say -- Rudy Gay, Andre Miller, Vin Baker (before he succumbed to alchoholism), Detleft Schrempf, and Ron Harper.  That's 5 all-star level players in 30 years?  Not very good odds.

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/8th-overall/80509/

2.  I feel that Kelly + #16 for the #8 pick is an overpay.  Kelly has already experienced two years of development and shown that he has at least been worth the #13 pick where he was taken.  A rookie taken at #8 will be very raw, and even if he isn't a BUST, will take another 2-3 years of development before you could even consider him ready to contribute.

In other words there is a 'time cost of development' for rookie prospects that posters fail to consider.  Even IF the draft pick is a success, and everything you hoped for, that guy won't be ready to impact the team, most likely until his 3rd year in the league.

When you talk about trading guys like Olynyk, Bradley, and Sullinger, you have to consider that they have all been developed at least 2-3 years already and are just about to hit their prime.  Trading one of these guys will set you back 2-3 years, so that even if the guy you get back with the draft pick is an upgrade, you have to wait around that amount of time before you see return on your investment.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2015, 01:00:42 AM by vjcsmoke »

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #36 on: May 29, 2015, 04:07:59 AM »

Offline LGC88

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1500
  • Tommy Points: 167
I have 2 arguments against it :

1. You don't do the deal unless you have an agreement in principle in place with player like Love or Aldridge. Bass won't be resigned, Sully is not reliable with his conditioning yet. Jerebko (if still there) is not a solution as a starting 4. It would be a joke if we end up with nobody at the PF the next season.

2. KO might be a late bloomer. His skills take time to develop at high level (specially considering his height). He hasn't reach an average level of confidence yet. I will give at least until the trade deadline in february 2016 before reevaluating KO.  If this guy will have a breakout year next season, we might lose something big, because this type of player is hard to find.

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #37 on: May 29, 2015, 04:48:06 AM »

Offline krumeto

  • Al Horford
  • Posts: 476
  • Tommy Points: 72
Kevin O'Conner recently started a discussion on the Pistons blog on the same topic. Check the comments for how the Pistons fans feel about it:
http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2015/5/20/8632101/chad-ford-pistons-may-look-to-trade-draft-pick#comments

Some offers coming from Pistons fans:
16+33+KO for 8 and Meeks
KCP + 8 for Sully and 28 (this one was eaten alive by other fans) I'd do this in a heartbeat
Sully + 16 for 8

On the OP's question, I'd do Kelly + 16 for 8.
"We do so many defensive drills in practice, I come home and I'm putting the press on my woman, denying her the ball.
Y'all are laughing, but it's sad. I go home and deny the wing."

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #38 on: May 29, 2015, 06:25:46 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 36703
  • Tommy Points: 2951
Do it.

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #39 on: May 29, 2015, 06:43:23 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8110
  • Tommy Points: 549
I'd trade either KO or Sully and the #16 for the #8.  Besides liking the players available at #8, it also creates an opportunity to trade up even further (#6 or #4). 

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #40 on: May 29, 2015, 07:03:01 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8110
  • Tommy Points: 549
I disagree with the meme - if Kelly + 16 were worth the 8th, it would have been done a long time ago.

1.  Drafting is very player dependent.  It depends on WHO is available at the #8 pick.

Consider the players taken at #8 in the draft in the past 30 years.  How many of those turned into star players?

Out of the following list of 8th overall picks, I would say -- Rudy Gay, Andre Miller, Vin Baker (before he succumbed to alchoholism), Detleft Schrempf, and Ron Harper.  That's 5 all-star level players in 30 years?  Not very good odds.

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/8th-overall/80509/

2.  I feel that Kelly + #16 for the #8 pick is an overpay.  Kelly has already experienced two years of development and shown that he has at least been worth the #13 pick where he was taken.  A rookie taken at #8 will be very raw, and even if he isn't a BUST, will take another 2-3 years of development before you could even consider him ready to contribute.

In other words there is a 'time cost of development' for rookie prospects that posters fail to consider.  Even IF the draft pick is a success, and everything you hoped for, that guy won't be ready to impact the team, most likely until his 3rd year in the league.

When you talk about trading guys like Olynyk, Bradley, and Sullinger, you have to consider that they have all been developed at least 2-3 years already and are just about to hit their prime.  Trading one of these guys will set you back 2-3 years, so that even if the guy you get back with the draft pick is an upgrade, you have to wait around that amount of time before you see return on your investment.
It is because of that development time that I'm willing to trade KO, AB and Sully.  I haven't seen anything from them that suggests they'll be more than role players.  Obviously I'd prefer to include them in a trade that gets us a star but using one of them in a trade for the #8 pick is a good option.  The league is full of role players.  There is no reason to overvalue our role players and the time spent developing them. 

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #41 on: May 29, 2015, 07:11:16 AM »

Offline Eja117

  • NCE
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19274
  • Tommy Points: 1254
KO has nothing resembling this type of trade value. He might have enough to move up 3 spots maybe. If he did this would have happened a long time ago

No it wouldn't.  I doubt Danny has offered anyone that package. 

So, you basically think Danny has offered to swap, say the 13th pick with Phoenix for our 16th pick and Kelly Olynyk, and he's been turned down?

Doesn't sound plausible to me.
No I'm saying it's more likely he offered KO and the 16 for 12 and they said no

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #42 on: May 29, 2015, 07:12:39 AM »

Offline Eja117

  • NCE
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19274
  • Tommy Points: 1254
KO has nothing resembling this type of trade value. He might have enough to move up 3 spots maybe. If he did this would have happened a long time ago

No it wouldn't.  I doubt Danny has offered anyone that package. 

So, you basically think Danny has offered to swap, say the 13th pick with Phoenix for our 16th pick and Kelly Olynyk, and he's been turned down?

Doesn't sound plausible to me.
He's saying if Kelly+16 was worth the 8th pick this deal would have happened a long time ago, not Kelly+16 for 13. That is what he thinks KO is actually worth.
Yes this. Thank you

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #43 on: May 29, 2015, 07:14:09 AM »

Offline Iggzilla

  • Oshae Brissett
  • Posts: 53
  • Tommy Points: 8
Yes, in a heartbeat. Especially since Stanley Johnson or Willy Cauley-Stein could still be available in that range, two players who could definitely become core pieces.

Re: Kelly for Pistons #8 pick
« Reply #44 on: May 29, 2015, 07:22:06 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20000
  • Tommy Points: 1323
If Love really is coming here then we are going to have to get rid of some of the guys we have and  get some guys who can rim protect.