Author Topic: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.  (Read 16952 times)

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Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #60 on: May 28, 2015, 10:55:32 PM »

Offline JohnBoy65

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So Crimson, you think Cleveland would have Jumped for joy if Danny called at the Trade deadline and said Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullenger for Kevin Love?

Cleveland accepts right away, correct?  ::)

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #61 on: May 28, 2015, 10:56:53 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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So Crimson, you think Cleveland would have Jumped for joy if Danny called at the Trade deadline and said Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullenger for Kevin Love?

Cleveland accepts right away, correct?  ::)

They would hang up laughing, while James gives Gilbert a little wink.
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Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #62 on: May 28, 2015, 10:57:57 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Quote
Sully is 23 years old and is averaging per-36 numbers of 17.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1 steal and 1 block while shooting 44%  / 28% / 74% and is earning $1.4 million.

Per 36 numbers make people look great.   Trouble is this guy was gasping and could not stay in shape with the minutes he had.    KO might foul out in 36 minutes.

Twist it anyway you like in no place but Boston does anyone think KO and Sully are even remotely as good as Love.   This is patently absurd.  This blog is really comedic sometimes except I do not think people mean it that way.

Nailed it.
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Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #63 on: May 28, 2015, 11:02:23 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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So I'm going to quote myself from another thread, using a post that compares Sully's past year to Love's third year in the league. This details why I think Sullinger will not be the "next Kevin Love" and why I think Kevin Love is worth paying for.

In 2010-2011, Kevin Love averaged 20.2 ppg and 15.2 rpg on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that averaged 101.1 points per contest. Love shot 47%/41.7%/85% on 11.2 two-pointers per game, 2.9 three-pointers per game, and 6.8 free throws per game. Love also averaged 2.5 assists per game. Love played 73 games at 35.8 minutes per game, with per-36 minute numbers of 20.4/15.3/2.5

In 2014-2015, Jared Sullinger averaged 13.3 ppg and 7.7 rpg on a Boston Celtics team that averaged 101.4 points per contest. Sullinger shot 43.9%/28.3%/74.4% on 9.0 two-pointers per game, 3.2 three-pointers per game, and 2.2 free throws per game. Sullinger also averaged 2.3 assists per game. Sullinger played 58 games at 27.0 minutes per game, with per-36 minute numbers of 17.7/10.1/3.1

From this, I see that Sullinger, compared to Love, contributed less to the offense point-wise with similar field goal attempts in fewer minutes. What is most concerning, though, is the percentages. Sullinger has always been a below-average everything (free throw rate, 2p%, and 3p%), showing no signs of being elite. His field goal percentages his first three years were: 49.3% (as a bench player), 42.7% (in his only year playing more than 2/3 of games), and 43.9%. Love, on the other hand, was always at least average (45.9%, 45%, and 47%), scraping elite as the first option on offense.  Sullinger also played less games and minutes due to being out of shape and having a bad back, which is not a good sign (although Love's recent injuries make this a wash, in my opinion). But Sullinger seems to have no sizable advantage on offense (neither crafty moves to get to the line nor shooting range or considerable size for his position), which seems to cap his possible production. I have no doubt he'd be better if he gets into shape, and he's showing positive signs, but I still don't think he'd be Love-like. Then, the argument becomes, "Is $10 million a year for 17/10 Sullinger better than >$20 million for 24/13 Love?"

Love is a guy whose efficiency is maintained as his usage rate gets higher, thus translating to great stats when on a bad team and above-average stats on a very good team. I don't think Sullinger has the physical tools or skills to have a big increase in production as his usage rate goes up.

Notice how Love's per-36 compare to Sullinger's.

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #64 on: May 28, 2015, 11:02:29 PM »

Offline GC003332

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The odds of Olynyk or Sullinger making multiple all star teams or making all NBA teams or representing the USA in the Olympics are almost slim and none, regardless of whether Love signs with Boston or not.
Olynyk would be lucky to command more than 4-5 mi on the open market if he was lucky.

I think Olynyk will make the Canadian team.

TP

He will probably put up bigger stats than a lot of the US guys too, might be able to trade him straight for them ;)

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #65 on: May 28, 2015, 11:02:59 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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There are only so many All Stars in this league---and way fewer Super Stars....there are TONS of Role players...which we can get ANYTIME...K.O. and Sully are ROLE Players...Love is an All Star.
Larry Bird was Greater than you think.

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #66 on: May 28, 2015, 11:44:51 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Crimson, it's important to realize the context of the statistics you're using. Kevin Love is on the same team as LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, the team representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals, and yet he still averaged more points and rebounds per game than Jared Sullinger, who played on the 7th seed, swept-in-the-first-round Boston Celtics.

...as a result of more playing time. 

Love's point and rebound increases over Sully are almost 100% directly correlated with his increase in playing time.  Their scoring and rebounding numbers on a per minute basis are essentially identical.

While you say it's important to understand Love's context, it's also important to understand Sully's context. 

Sully plays on a team who's offense doesn't focus on any one player - it's designed to take advantage of the roster's depth by sharing the ball, rather than playing through any two or three guys. 

Everybody talk about what Love did in Minnesota, but in Minny he was playing MASSIVE minutes and taking a HUGE amount of shots in an offensive that ran entirely through him as the entire focus of their offense.  Boston doesn't have that type of offensive in place, so if he came here I don't think he'd give you the type of production you're expecting.  I think his numbers may jump a little from where they are, but not as much as you probably think. 

I'm thinking maybe 18/10/3?

The concern I have is that I think we have a few problems when Sully is on the court:

1) Lack of size
Sully is 6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan - that's enough size to get you by at PF, but only barely.  It will rarely be enough to give you an edge.

2) Predictable and one dimensional offense
Sully stands on the perimeter all day.  Run at his three, and he'll either pass it up, or (worse) chuck a contented three.  Either way the defense wins.  He's no threat to put the ball on the floor and drive, and he doesn't seem to have any interest in posting up.  Nothing to put pressure on the interior (or perimeter) defense.

3) Lack of defensive versatility
Sully lacks the size and length to be a great rim protector, and he lacks the lateral mobility to be a positive perimeter defender.  He can't defender centers, he can't defend Small Forwards, and he struggles enough to defend Power Forwards. 

Now the problem with Kevin Love is, from what I've seen he doesn't fix any of these issues.

1) He has comparable size to Sully (6'10", 7'1" wingspan)

2) He has similar offensive limitations (doesn't show any desire to post up any more, and not much ability to attack off the dribble)

3) He has the same defensive limitations - can't defend the paint or the perimeter

This is why I don't want to go after him unless he's avaliable at a decent price, which obviously is never going to happen.

We actually aren't too bad when Olynyk is out there because at least he helps with point #2.  He is a surprisingly willing driver, and does a pretty decent job at getting in to the paint and putting pressure on the oppositions interior defense.  He creates a lot of offense that way either by scoring himself, or dishing to open guys when the defense collapses. 

I'd like to see us go after a more traditional big.  Somebody who can put some pressure on the opposing teams interior defense - force that defense to collapse more often, draw some double teams, take some pressure off our perimeter shooters defensively.  I don't think Love helps us with that though. 

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #67 on: May 29, 2015, 01:00:33 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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In 2010-2011, Kevin Love averaged 20.2 ppg and 15.2 rpg on a Minnesota Timberwolves team that averaged 101.1 points per contest. Love shot 47%/41.7%/85% on 11.2 two-pointers per game, 2.9 three-pointers per game, and 6.8 free throws per game. Love also averaged 2.5 assists per game. Love played 73 games at 35.8 minutes per game, with per-36 minute numbers of 20.4/15.3/2.5

In 2014-2015, Jared Sullinger averaged 13.3 ppg and 7.7 rpg on a Boston Celtics team that averaged 101.4 points per contest. Sullinger shot 43.9%/28.3%/74.4% on 9.0 two-pointers per game, 3.2 three-pointers per game, and 2.2 free throws per game. Sullinger also averaged 2.3 assists per game. Sullinger played 58 games at 27.0 minutes per game, with per-36 minute numbers of 17.7/10.1/3.1

A fair comparison IF Love was still 22 years old and in his third season...and if a 22 year old Love was the guy we were talking about giving a max contract too.   

Love's 3rd season was the best season of his career. 

In that year:
1) Only 52% of Love's 2PT field goals were assisted, which shows that he was very capable of creating his own shot.  Last season that number jumped to 58%, and this year it's jumped to 70%.

2) Love's free throw rate was 48.9% which is crazy.  Last year it dropped slightly to 44%, and this year it's down to 33%.  Still a good number, but shows that he's not being as agressive taking the ball to the basket, and is settling far more for jumpers.

3) Love took 35% (or more than 1/3) of his field goals from inside 3 feet.  Last year that dropped to 25% (or 1/4) and this year it's dropped to 20% (or 1/5).   Even further proof that Love is becoming less versatile offensively, and making less of an effort to get into the paint.

4) Love took 39% of his shots outside 10 feet.  Last year it jumped to 58% and this year it's up to 61%.  Again, proof that Love is getting less willing to play physical, and more inclined to want to just stand around the perimeter and jack up jumpers.

5) Love shot 41.7% from three.  Last year it dropped to 37.6% and this year it's down to 36.7% - not only is Love taking a higher percentage of his shots from three, but his percentages from there are also falling.

6) Love's FG% was 47% - this has dropped to 45.7% last year and 43.4% this year.  If anything Lebron and Irving should be drawing defensive attention away from Love and he should be getting more open shots - hence his FG% should at an all time high this year.  Instead, it's the lowest of his entire career outside of 12/13 (when he missed most the season to injury).  This has a lot to do with the fact that his Love is taking more jump shots then he ever has before.

So, if you were talking about offering a max contract tot he 2010-11 Kevin Love, then maybe I'll be convinced.  But were talking about giving a max contract to the current day Kevin Love- the one who's just coming off a major surgery, and the one who (the past two seasons) has shown signs of getting lazier and becoming a bit of a chucker.

Quote
Is $10 million a year for 17/10 Sullinger better than >$20 million for 24/13 Love?"

Problem is i'm not comparing $10m a year Sully to $20m a year Love.  I'm comparing a $15.6m Love to a $1.4m Sully.

That's 14x more money.  That's a big difference. Sully gives you what he does practically for free.

Now if Sully was due for contract renewal and was asking for $10m (versus $16m for Love) THEN i'd go for Love.  That's not the case right now though.

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #68 on: May 29, 2015, 01:04:04 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think there's a very real question as to whether Jared Sullinger will ever be able to average 36 minutes a game, which is what Kevin Love has done multiple times during his most productive seasons.
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Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #69 on: May 29, 2015, 01:19:41 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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So Crimson, you think Cleveland would have Jumped for joy if Danny called at the Trade deadline and said Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullenger for Kevin Love?

Cleveland accepts right away, correct?  ::)

Cleveland is completely lacking another PF with Love's skill set.  Aside from Love they don't really have another big who can stretch the floor.  Love fills an important void for them - that's why they traded for him.  Cleveland also has Mozgov, who helps to cover for loves lack of interior presence (both on offense and on defense).  Love is a pretty solid fit in Cleveland.

Boston already has three stretch 4's at the Power Forward spot who get a significant amount of their offense from jump shots, and who do a decent job of stretching the floor.  Hell, even Zeller has a pretty solid midrange jumper.  We don't really NEED another big man standing on the perimeter chucking long jumpers.  Boston also doesn't have a single rim protector who can cover for Love's lack of interior defense...and we don't have a single low post scorer who can make up draw in the defense so that Love has the optimal space to operate on the perimeter.

Love is a much better fit in Clevleand then he is here and lets be honest - he hasn't been a very good fit there at all (as his comments over the year would tell you).

The other problem with Love is that he is not an alpha-dog type personality.  He's not a closer.  You don't sit there at the end of the day and say "give the ball to Love, and get out of the way".  He works best playing off other guys, as a second or third option.  That's why no team has ever made the playoffs with him as a first option, and why his former teammates have publicly spoke of his lack of natural leadership ability.  He just isn't that guy.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens, but this is a season with many nice free agent prospects, and there are a number of them that I'd go for over Love.  Aldridge, Butler, Gasol, Jordan, Monroe - I think all of those guys fit/improve our team better than Love does.

Oh and just for the record, I am not in any way trying to suggest that Sully is as good as Love is, or that he ever will be.  What I'm saying is that as two similar players, with quite similar skill sets, the moderate jump in production gained is (IMHO) not worth the ginormous increase in salary. 

I think there's a very real question as to whether Jared Sullinger will ever be able to average 36 minutes a game, which is what Kevin Love has done multiple times during his most productive seasons.

This is true, but he doesn't need to.  At the end of the day, you don't NEED one guy playing 36 minutes a night.  What you need is for your players at the position to outplay your opponent's players at the position...for 48 minutes a night.  Or as close to it as possible.

Sully and Olynyk play enough minutes between them to cover the PF spot for all 48 minutes.  As long as both of those guy outplay their match-up while they are on the court then ultimately it doesn't matter how many minutes they play individually.  At this stage I think both guys do a good enough job of outplaying (or at the very least holding their own against) the opponent PF while they are on the court.

If Love plays 33 minutes and outplays the opposing PF for while he's on the court, then you still a backup who can come in for the other 15 minutes, and who can outplay the opposing PF during that time.  Finding a backup PF of that quality is a little more difficult when yo have $16m in cap space dedicated to your starter....as opposed to when you have $1.5m dedicated to your starter. 

For arguments sake, lets say team #1 has Sully and Olynyk who (while on the court) are +1 and +2 (respectively) against their opponents.

Now lets say team #2 has Love (who is +3 when on the court) and backup-player-X (who is -2 when on the court). 

Team #1 finishes up with a +3 advantage over their opponent at the PF spot, while team #2 finishes up with a +1 advantage at the PF spot, because Love has to dig the team out of a hole every time he steps back in. 

No the most scientific example, but you point i'm trying to make is that you don't need one star who can play huge minutes and put up dominant stats - all you need is for your PF rotation to outplay your opponents PF rotation.  Whether that's one guy or multiple guys sharing the load, it's the end result that counts.

The increased cap will help with this of course, but it's still worth considering.  Until that new cap comes in, $16M is a lot of money...
« Last Edit: May 29, 2015, 01:52:32 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #70 on: May 29, 2015, 01:55:41 AM »

Offline Monkhouse

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So Crimson, you think Cleveland would have Jumped for joy if Danny called at the Trade deadline and said Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullenger for Kevin Love?

Cleveland accepts right away, correct?  ::)

I think there's a very real question as to whether Jared Sullinger will ever be able to average 36 minutes a game, which is what Kevin Love has done multiple times during his most productive seasons.

The increased cap will help with this of course, but it's still worth considering.  Until that new cap comes in, $16M is a lot of money...

Hate to type something I'm not too honestly sure about, but how many teams in recent history has won the championship that never went over the luxury tax?

You gotta pay to win. Pay to play, play to win.

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Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #71 on: May 29, 2015, 04:57:22 AM »

Offline LHR

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I've been talking about Love to Boston ad nauseum on Celtics Beat for over a month despite many writing it off, particularly with Sherrod and Bob Ryan and will do so tomorrow with Jeff Goodman as well.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/celtics-beat-podcast-covering/id908834698?mt=2

It's always been a decent possibility - referred to it as 33% sometime ago. I stand by those odds. And now with Woj out there, who is as close to Kevin Love as anyone for everyone's reference, it's only drawing attention to the more passive people who follow this situation.
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Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #72 on: May 29, 2015, 05:20:26 AM »

Offline Eddie20

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I've been talking about Love to Boston ad nauseum on Celtics Beat for over a month despite many writing it off, particularly with Sherrod and Bob Ryan and will do so tomorrow with Jeff Goodman as well.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/celtics-beat-podcast-covering/id908834698?mt=2

It's always been a decent possibility - referred to it as 33% sometime ago. I stand by those odds. And now with Woj out there, who is as close to Kevin Love as anyone for everyone's reference, it's only drawing attention to the more passive people who follow this situation.

Awesome stuff. Can't wait to listen to the podcast, which I assume will be mainly focused on draft talk.

Oh, and Blakely is singing a different tune following the latest from Woj.

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/blakely-cs-have-lot-going-their-favor-land-love

Quote
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love plans to "look around" at potential suitors this offseason, and the Boston Celtics could be in the running.

Celtics Insider A. Sherrod Blakely joined SportsNet Central to discuss if the Green Team has a legitimate chance to land Love.

"I think the Celtics will have a legitimate shot at landing him because they're going to have a lot of money," said Blakely. "But I think this is ultimately one of those east coast-west coast battles between the Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers.

"They have the money, they have the young, up-and-coming coach. They've got a lot of things going in their favor to land Kevin Love. And he's a guy that's proven he loves being in Boston."

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #73 on: May 29, 2015, 07:24:27 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Hearing Blakely endorse a story rarely fills me with confidence.

Re: Here is why Love ends up in Boston.
« Reply #74 on: May 29, 2015, 07:52:30 AM »

Offline GetLucky

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This year, Love averaged 17.5ppg with 13.5 field goal attempts per game. Sullinger averaged 13.3 points per game on 12.2 shots per game. So Love, with a similar usage rate to Sullinger (despite their differences in playing time), averaged 4.2 more points per game on just 1 more shot. Imagine having 2-4 more points in each game this year- that's a huge difference. Also, Sullinger was not the first option, not because he did not getting a fair shake but because he was, statistically, too incompetent to be the first option. Yet, he still took more field goal attempts per minute than Love. Likewise, Sullingers' lack of minutes compared to Love were not due to being slighted. Rather, they they were because he was out of shape and had a bad back.

Love's numbers, scoring-wise, simply translate much better than Sullingers' with a higher usage percentage. Never has Sullinger been capable of being a first option, and I can guarantee you that Sullinger will never score 26ppg. Kevin Love also averaged 9.7ppg on a team that averaged an even 43. Sullinger averaged 7.7 on a team that averaged 43.8.