The value of Kelly Olynyk in the modern NBA game

[Ed Hollison]

Zach Lowe has a fantastic piece up on Grantland, exploring the future of the NBA post game, which has become all but extinct in recent years but could be making a comeback. If you haven't read this already, you absolutely should. (I don't think anyone on this forum has linked to it yet, but apologies if I'm mistaken.)

Here it is: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/we-interrupt-this-eulogy-for-the-nba-post-up-game-to-bring-you-its-rebirth/

One of the most interesting points that he makes is that the so-called "stretch 4" in the NBA is now becoming obsolete. Teams can now scheme to defend bigs who can shoot. What teams now need are bigs who can not only shoot but drive to the hoop, handle the ball, and pass.

Here's a passage:

Guys like Ryan Anderson, Ersan Ilyasova, and Channing Frye are more multidimensional, but they aren’t as lethal as they were two or three years ago, and they can only thrive in specific environments. If they had better post games, they could beat up smaller defenders and force opponents into uncomfortable readjustments. But they can’t — at least not consistently.

A few executives have dumped the term “stretch 4” altogether and replaced it with “playmaking 4” — a term I’m officially stealing right now. Shooting is nice, but it’s not enough anymore as defenses get smarter, faster, and more flexible working within the loosened rules. Spot-up guys have to be able to catch the ball, pump-fake a defender rushing out at them, drive into the lane, and make some sort of play. If they can’t manage that, a possession dies with them.

“In a playoff series, you can figure out shooting,” Karl says. “You just cover Kyle Korver. All that cute stuff they ran for him all year long — they only get that once in a while now. The shooters who have playmaking ability — those are the guys that are really kicking *ss.”

How does this translate to the current Celtics? One thing I'd say is that Olynyk's future should really be as one of these "playmaking fours". Think about Boris Diaw in that Spurs-Heat finals last year. Defenders were running at him at the 3-point line, and he would pump fake, drive to the hoop, and be ready to finish or create for someone else. And when guarded by a smaller guy, they'd dump the ball into him on the block and let him go to work. That should be Olynyk's game.

The question, I suppose, is whether or not Olynyk can develop into a good enough defender and rebounder not to get completely exploited on that end of the floor. I'm optimistic, but the uncertainly here is high.

Curious to hear what others think.

[PhoSita]

I definitely thought of Olynyk when he started talking about how power forwards with range need to be able to pump fake, put the ball on the floor, and make plays for teammates.

Kelly has shown an ability to do that, what has been lacking so far is decisiveness and clarity of purpose when he's out there.  Some nights he has it, and he looks great.  Other nights he's tentative and seems to feel like he can't take an open shot unless it's the 3rd or 4th good look the team has had in that possession.  When he plays that way, he's not much good.

I don't expect KO to ever be a great defensive player, or to ever dominate the boards.  The plus minus numbers, though -- for whatever they are worth (I'm not sure) -- suggest he's not as much of a drag on the defensive end as the typical hot take on here would indicate.

[Celtics18]

 

Kelly Olynyk is a "playmaking four." It's what he's been for his two years as a Celtic.  Whenever everybody has been calling him a "stretch four" and saying that if he's lucky he could be the next Ryan Anderson, I've scoffed at that notion.  Kelly offers more than just stretching the floor.  He can also put it on the floor and make a play.

Welcome aboard, Zach. 

[Celtics18]

I definitely thought of Olynyk when he started talking about how power forwards with range need to be able to pump fake, put the ball on the floor, and make plays for teammates.

Kelly has shown an ability to do that, what has been lacking so far is decisiveness and clarity of purpose when he's out there.  Some nights he has it, and he looks great. Other nights he's tentative and seems to feel like he can't take an open shot unless it's the 3rd or 4th good look the team has had in that possession.  When he plays that way, he's not much good.

I don't expect KO to ever be a great defensive player, or to ever dominate the boards.  The plus minus numbers, though -- for whatever they are worth (I'm not sure) -- suggest he's not as much of a drag on the defensive end as the typical hot take on here would indicate.

I think that part of the reason for Kelly's frequent lack of "clarity of purpose" lies exactly in the fact that his role isn't as clear as many want to believe.

We want to shout along with Tommy "just shoot the ball, Kelly!!!" every time he touches the ball.  I don't think, and have never thought, that this is what his sole purpose is, though.  His job is to be a playmaker.  Sometimes that means shooting, sometimes that means driving, sometimes that means looking for a cutter, sometimes it means getting it back to the guard up top who has a better opportunity to make a play.

Being a playmaker in the NBA is not an easy task to master.  It takes more than just "shoot the ball," or
"go to the hole."  It takes figuring out what is the best option on a given play and executing that play quickly and decisively and being able to improvise when things don't go as planned.  That's a lot for a young player to master while learning how to play against the biggest, strongest, fastest, best athletes in the world. 

You don't see a lot of "playmakers" attain mastery within their first couple of years in the NBA.  It takes some time and practice to become comfortable with those kinds of decision making skills at that level.

I think Kelly will continue to get better at it.  As many like to point out, "he probably is what he is."  I agree with that, but think he has plenty of room to improve in the role of who he is.   

[PhoSita]

Kelly Olynyk is a "playmaking four." It's what he's been for his two years as a Celtic.  Whenever everybody has been calling him a "stretch four" and saying that if he's lucky he could be the next Ryan Anderson, I've scoffed at that notion.  Kelly offers more than just stretching the floor.  He can also put it on the floor and make a play.

Welcome aboard, Zach.

I've always thought he moved and played more like Luis Scola (floppy hair and all), only KO takes threes, obviously. 

[2short]

I welcome KO for HIS CAREER as first big off the bench.  I don't think he has "it" to be a starter and dominate one aspect to make up for other short comings. 
Kelly has improved his defense immensely and is a good rebounder.  Does he have the bird/killer attitude ? NO
There lies the problem. I see him as a combo big off the bench who can have the offense run through him if need be

[SHAQATTACK]

I welcome KO for HIS CAREER as first big off the bench.  I don't think he has "it" to be a starter and dominate one aspect to make up for other short comings. 
Kelly has improved his defense immensely and is a good rebounder.  Does he have the bird/killer attitude ? NO
There lies the problem. I see him as a combo big off the bench who can have the offense run through him if need be

I agree.....no matter how you package a player or describe his role as a NBA player......to get to that high level of notoriety a player has to have the "self starter confidence , and attitude to achieve greatness.

No matter how many gifts a person has as physical skills .....what's between the ears .....is the key to the success

[GzUP617]

  We'll all be believers with K.O soon enough.   

[Celtics18]

I welcome KO for HIS CAREER as first big off the bench.  I don't think he has "it" to be a starter and dominate one aspect to make up for other short comings. 
Kelly has improved his defense immensely and is a good rebounder.  Does he have the bird/killer attitude ? NO
There lies the problem. I see him as a combo big off the bench who can have the offense run through him if need be

The problem lies in him not having the killer instinct of Larry Bird?

You sure set a high mark for what it takes to be an NBA starter. 

[D Dub]

IMHO jerebko is a better "play making 4" than Kelly.   

Unless KO learns how to D and rebound, he'll be out of the league in 2-3 years.   Just isn't that good, doesn't have one elite skill.   

[Celtics18]

IMHO jerebko is a better "play making 4" than Kelly.   

Unless KO learns how to D and rebound, he'll be out of the league in 2-3 years.   Just isn't that good, doesn't have one elite skill.   

That's only because you aren't really paying attention. 

Nothing against Jonas.  I like his game. 

[D Dub]

IMHO jerebko is a better "play making 4" than Kelly.   

Unless KO learns how to D and rebound, he'll be out of the league in 2-3 years.   Just isn't that good, doesn't have one elite skill.   

That's only because you aren't really paying attention. 

Nothing against Jonas.  I like his game.

mmmK..

[Celtics18]

IMHO jerebko is a better "play making 4" than Kelly.   

Unless KO learns how to D and rebound, he'll be out of the league in 2-3 years.   Just isn't that good, doesn't have one elite skill.   

That's only because you aren't really paying attention. 

Nothing against Jonas.  I like his game.

mmmK..

Maybe that was a bit too dismissive on my part.  Jonas is another guy who can make plays from the four spot.  He can hit threes as well.

I guess to go with Zach Lowe's main point, you can't have too many guys who can do multiple things on the floor offensively.  I'd love to keep Jonas around. 

Still, I have no doubt that Kelly Olynyk is a more skilled playmaker. 

[MikeJelly]

Value? So what draft pick range could just Kelly O fetch?

[Celtics18]

Value? So what draft pick range could just Kelly O fetch?

My guess would be that he could get somewhere between 10 to 15 in this year's draft.