Even with the raised salary cap, the Cavs would be repeat luxury tax offenders for two years in a row. Kyrie signed a mega-max deal last year. Lebron wants a mega-mega max deal next off-season. Love would almost certainly demand a mega-max deal this off-season, and Thompson will want a max deal. They also hold a team option on Mozgov this year, which means they can put off resigning him for another year, but when he does need resigned, he will cost them 8-10 million a year.
I think it is more and more likely he leaves. The spacing is tighter without Love, but the Cavs have found this bully type of identity that just pounds opposing teams into submission. That has been a winning formula.
More than a 17 million dollar stretch 4 (which is how they use Love), what they need is depth. Love and Irving are injury-prone -- that's undeniable. James is wearing down -- slowly, but it is happening. They need guys who can give them good minutes like JR Smith, Iman Shumpert, Dellavadova, and Mozgov.
If I'm the Cavs, I would try to get depth more than anything. With the way Iman Shumpert has been playing, I might rather keep him for his fit next to Lebron and Kyrie. Dellavadova is the same way. Neither are stars, but they are a great fit next to Lebron and Kyrie. If I'm them, I'm resigning Shumpert (6 million a year), Dellaladova (3 million a year), Thompson (15 million a year), Mozgov (8 million a year), and using my mid-level to try to get Jerebko from us.
At that point, with 10 players on their roster, they have about 91 million in salaries. If you fill that out with a first round pick and minimum contracts, that makes about 95 million in salaries which would be the highest of any team in the NBA - that's without Love and before they resign James to a mega-mega max deal worth about 10 million more than he is being paid right now.
I know Gilbert is willing to pay the tax for a championship team, but because they are repeat offenders, their tax bill will be almost 50 million without Kevin Love. With him too, it would be over 100 million for next season. Even though the cap jumps again the year after that, Lebron wants a megamegamax deal, which I think will put their tax above 50 million again.
These are my rough numbers. From my point of view, the way they use Love, I just don't think he puts them over the top. I think they can win just as well without him, or with a stretch four like Jerebko.
Which is good for us if Love is available. By the way, I think they knew this might happen, and they prepared for this contingency.