Author Topic: Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum  (Read 1056 times)

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Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum
« on: May 26, 2015, 10:05:15 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Nicolas Batum is entering the final year of his contract this year.  He's coming off the worst shooting year of his career for both 2-pointers and 3-pointers, and by necessity, FG%, TS%, and eFG%.  However, the rest of his rate stats for things like rebounding, assists, steals, and blocks were all at or near his career averages.  Furthermore, his shooting picked up after the all-star break -- his post-break TS% would have been the second-highest of his career.  As he was reportedly dealing with a thumb injury in the first part of the season, it seems very possible that this poor year overall was the outlier, and not the beginning of a trend.

However, Portland is going to have some difficult salary decisions to make, and Batum seems like he's becoming a bit of the fall guy for their disappointing season.  If we strike out on the big name free agents this summer, he seems like someone who could be had pretty cheaply, or even for free depending on the situation.  He has the chance to be a significant improvement at the SF position for a team on an upward trajectory, while not costing us future salary cap opportunities in 2016.

He counts $12.3 million against next year's cap.  Given our cap space, we could acquire him and still have room for a free agent in the $8-10 million range, and/or keep one or both of Bass and Jerebko around.  As a plan C or D type of acquisition, would you be willing to give up a couple 2016 2nd rounders for him?

Re: Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2015, 10:10:20 AM »

Offline Endless Paradise

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I think Batum is attainable, but only if Aldridge leaves - in which case, I'd expect them to want at least a first rounder if they were to trade him over the summer. I think the market rate for wings was set with the Afflalo and Jeff Green trades, both of whom were traded during the season for first rounders despite having opt-outs for this summer. Portland probably could and should look to do better than some second rounders for a full year of Batum.

Re: Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2015, 10:23:35 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I think Batum is attainable, but only if Aldridge leaves - in which case, I'd expect them to want at least a first rounder if they were to trade him over the summer. I think the market rate for wings was set with the Afflalo and Jeff Green trades, both of whom were traded during the season for first rounders.

I actually think it's more likely they trade him if Aldridge stays, because that $12.3 million trade exception could be useful as they try to improve their team.  Otherwise, assuming they retain all their free agents, it's really the same team as the last two years.

Also, both Afflalo and Green had options to remain beyond 2015 in their deals when they were traded, at reasonable money.  I think that made both players slightly more valuable relative to their production, as they could stay longer than half a season (and it looks like both could in fact stay with their teams for the final year).  Furthermore, Batum is more expensive, which means a) a smaller pool of trade partners, and b) a larger TPE, which have the twin effects of driving down the price and providing a larger TPE to Portland.  Finally, both Afflalo and Green were traded for highly protected/distant 1sts.  (Green's pick was/is unlikely to convey before 2018, and Afflalo's pick is lottery protected for 2016 and 2017 before turning into two seconds).  I don't think a couple of second-rounders is a major departure from that value, especially if one is from Philly.

Re: Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2015, 10:38:26 AM »

Offline Endless Paradise

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I edited my post afterwards to acknowledge the opt-outs - which actually made including the first rounders much riskier, as there was a chance that both teams were trading first rounders for the right to rent some players for a few months. That said, Afflalo's already indicated he's opting out and, after Green's postseason clunker, I wouldn't be surprised if the Grizzlies' FO is secretly wishing that he does opt-out.

With Aldridge's future up in the air, I'd be surprised that, if he leaves, Portland would then decide to re-sign Afflalo. More likely, they'd let him walk or at least explore sign-and-trades, which would probably signify the start of a rebuilding/retooling process. As such, I'd fully expect Batum to become very available.

The reason why I say that Portland would probably be more inclined to retain Batum if Aldridge stays is, despite Batum's anomalous shooting, the Blazers were an extremely potent and dangerous team for the short period of time following the Afflalo trade and preceding the Matthews injury. They had the exact kind of depth they were looking for and, if healthy, honestly had a very fair shot of being in Houston's place right now. The team itself isn't flawed and, if the main group is retained, doesn't really need any major changes to the core so much as they need good health.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2015, 10:45:15 AM by Endless Paradise »

Re: Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2015, 10:51:06 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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I think Batum is attainable, but only if Aldridge leaves - in which case, I'd expect them to want at least a first rounder if they were to trade him over the summer. I think the market rate for wings was set with the Afflalo and Jeff Green trades, both of whom were traded during the season for first rounders despite having opt-outs for this summer. Portland probably could and should look to do better than some second rounders for a full year of Batum.
Completely agree with this. No reason to keep him around if they are rebuilding around Lillard, especially since Batum is an expiring. Not sure which future first I would trade them, but I would have no problem parting with a pick for someone who is (when healthy) a lock down defender and a good 3 point shooter.
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Re: Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2015, 01:49:08 PM »

Offline SCeltic34

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I've always been a fan of Batum.  Solid all-around player. For his career he's a hair under 45 FG% and 36% from 3 despite really poor shooting numbers this season.  Good rebounder and defender.  Averaged about 5 assists per game in each season over the past 3 seasons, which is pretty impressive.  Only 26 years old.

If we fail to acquire a star this summer and the price is only a pair of two 2nd rounders for Batum, I'd do that without thinking twice. 

Re: Bounceback candidate: Nicolas Batum
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2015, 02:01:47 PM »

Offline Forza Juventus

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I like Batum and I think trading for him would be a good opportunity.
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