Author Topic: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?  (Read 17644 times)

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Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2015, 02:59:05 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Quote
He gives you scoring from the 3. Which was one of our biggest weaknesses this year.

I think if you can trade G Wallace away with 28 and some 2s then sign Monroe and Harris to max deals then deal something like 16 or Sully or KO to Chicago for Gibson.

While Monroe isn't my first choice I think him along with some other guys will make this team good. I was thinking:

1. Trade 16, Sully/KO, future 1st, Wallace, and Young for
S+T Monroe + #8

Gives Detroit something instead of letting Monroe walk plus they seem to want to shop that pick. Gives them Sully/KO + Portis/Kaminsky to go with Drummond who is more a defense big. Future 1st + Young's potential and Wallace as filler.

2. Sign Deandre Jordan.

Smart, IT
Bradley, Turner
S. Johnson (#8), Crowder
Monroe, KO/Sully, McCullough or Mickey
Jordan, Zeller
Way too much to Detroit. I'd remove Young and the future first if it's Sully. If it's KO than can keep the future first. So 16, KO, Wallace and future first. Or 16, Sully and Wallace. Have to remember it's Monroe's choice where he signs his talent shouldn't be added into the value of the trade.

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2015, 03:02:24 PM »

Offline Forza Juventus

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It is bad business to develop a player and then just let another team sign the player in restricted free agency. Orlando should match any offer but they should have just offered the max before the deadline. If someone offers him a shorter contract with a player option Orlando will have acted very stupid.
He probably would not have signed as a player can get 1 to 2 more years by not doing an extention. Its 3 years for extentions vs by resigning 5 or signing 4 a new contract.

Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson signed four and five year extensions. Orlando could have offered a four year max before the season started.
Don't you give up the rfa QO option year for that so technically the team loses a year but player gets signed sooner. Would not have made sense doing that for Harris. He isn't in the same league as Irving or Thompson.

I don't know what you mean by the QO year.
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Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2015, 03:13:41 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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It is bad business to develop a player and then just let another team sign the player in restricted free agency. Orlando should match any offer but they should have just offered the max before the deadline. If someone offers him a shorter contract with a player option Orlando will have acted very stupid.
He probably would not have signed as a player can get 1 to 2 more years by not doing an extention. Its 3 years for extentions vs by resigning 5 or signing 4 a new contract.

Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson signed four and five year extensions. Orlando could have offered a four year max before the season started.
Don't you give up the rfa QO option year for that so technically the team loses a year but player gets signed sooner. Would not have made sense doing that for Harris. He isn't in the same league as Irving or Thompson.

I don't know what you mean by the QO year.
It's the Bledsoe and Monroe RFA situation one took the extension you mentioned but the other took the QO. By playing the QO card the team gets an extra year at cheap $. So Harris if he walks earns Magic a pick if he plays under QO like Monroe they get a cheap year. And the third option is they can still match any offer.

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2015, 03:36:32 PM »

Offline Forza Juventus

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It is bad business to develop a player and then just let another team sign the player in restricted free agency. Orlando should match any offer but they should have just offered the max before the deadline. If someone offers him a shorter contract with a player option Orlando will have acted very stupid.
He probably would not have signed as a player can get 1 to 2 more years by not doing an extention. Its 3 years for extentions vs by resigning 5 or signing 4 a new contract.

Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson signed four and five year extensions. Orlando could have offered a four year max before the season started.
Don't you give up the rfa QO option year for that so technically the team loses a year but player gets signed sooner. Would not have made sense doing that for Harris. He isn't in the same league as Irving or Thompson.

I don't know what you mean by the QO year.
It's the Bledsoe and Monroe RFA situation one took the extension you mentioned but the other took the QO. By playing the QO card the team gets an extra year at cheap $. So Harris if he walks earns Magic a pick if he plays under QO like Monroe they get a cheap year. And the third option is they can still match any offer.

Orlando does not get a pick if he walks. And if they give him QO he becomes unrestricted the next year when the cap jumps. It would have made sense to offer the four year max.
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Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2015, 07:23:06 PM »

Offline Celts Fan 508

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The consensus seems to be that Harris is not going to be available, if the Magic take Winslow does that change?
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Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2015, 07:26:26 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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It is bad business to develop a player and then just let another team sign the player in restricted free agency. Orlando should match any offer but they should have just offered the max before the deadline. If someone offers him a shorter contract with a player option Orlando will have acted very stupid.
He probably would not have signed as a player can get 1 to 2 more years by not doing an extention. Its 3 years for extentions vs by resigning 5 or signing 4 a new contract.

Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson signed four and five year extensions. Orlando could have offered a four year max before the season started.
Don't you give up the rfa QO option year for that so technically the team loses a year but player gets signed sooner. Would not have made sense doing that for Harris. He isn't in the same league as Irving or Thompson.

I don't know what you mean by the QO year.
It's the Bledsoe and Monroe RFA situation one took the extension you mentioned but the other took the QO. By playing the QO card the team gets an extra year at cheap $. So Harris if he walks earns Magic a pick if he plays under QO like Monroe they get a cheap year. And the third option is they can still match any offer.

Orlando does not get a pick if he walks. And if they give him QO he becomes unrestricted the next year when the cap jumps. It would have made sense to offer the four year max.
If they don't match an offer sheet they get a pick but they must first extend QO.

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2015, 07:28:19 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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The consensus seems to be that Harris is not going to be available, if the Magic take Winslow does that change?
I don't think it does. Oladipo can back up the PG spot and Winslow can back up SG. It's helps rotation depth.

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2015, 07:37:56 PM »

Offline Forza Juventus

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It is bad business to develop a player and then just let another team sign the player in restricted free agency. Orlando should match any offer but they should have just offered the max before the deadline. If someone offers him a shorter contract with a player option Orlando will have acted very stupid.
He probably would not have signed as a player can get 1 to 2 more years by not doing an extention. Its 3 years for extentions vs by resigning 5 or signing 4 a new contract.

Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson signed four and five year extensions. Orlando could have offered a four year max before the season started.
Don't you give up the rfa QO option year for that so technically the team loses a year but player gets signed sooner. Would not have made sense doing that for Harris. He isn't in the same league as Irving or Thompson.

I don't know what you mean by the QO year.
It's the Bledsoe and Monroe RFA situation one took the extension you mentioned but the other took the QO. By playing the QO card the team gets an extra year at cheap $. So Harris if he walks earns Magic a pick if he plays under QO like Monroe they get a cheap year. And the third option is they can still match any offer.

Orlando does not get a pick if he walks. And if they give him QO he becomes unrestricted the next year when the cap jumps. It would have made sense to offer the four year max.
If they don't match an offer sheet they get a pick but they must first extend QO.

Im sorry but you are wrong in the NBA there is no draft pick compensation.
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Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2015, 11:02:22 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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It is bad business to develop a player and then just let another team sign the player in restricted free agency. Orlando should match any offer but they should have just offered the max before the deadline. If someone offers him a shorter contract with a player option Orlando will have acted very stupid.
He probably would not have signed as a player can get 1 to 2 more years by not doing an extention. Its 3 years for extentions vs by resigning 5 or signing 4 a new contract.

Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson signed four and five year extensions. Orlando could have offered a four year max before the season started.
Don't you give up the rfa QO option year for that so technically the team loses a year but player gets signed sooner. Would not have made sense doing that for Harris. He isn't in the same league as Irving or Thompson.

I don't know what you mean by the QO year.
It's the Bledsoe and Monroe RFA situation one took the extension you mentioned but the other took the QO. By playing the QO card the team gets an extra year at cheap $. So Harris if he walks earns Magic a pick if he plays under QO like Monroe they get a cheap year. And the third option is they can still match any offer.

Orlando does not get a pick if he walks. And if they give him QO he becomes unrestricted the next year when the cap jumps. It would have made sense to offer the four year max.
If they don't match an offer sheet they get a pick but they must first extend QO.

Im sorry but you are wrong in the NBA there is no draft pick compensation.
Maybe it has changed but I thought the RFA non-match gave former team equal pick compensation. Was it last CBA? If not it's the same.

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #24 on: May 24, 2015, 11:34:58 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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The consensus seems to be that Harris is not going to be available, if the Magic take Winslow does that change?
I don't think it does. Oladipo can back up the PG spot and Winslow can back up SG. It's helps rotation depth.

I think if Orlando takes Winslow they still match on Harris, but not because they don't anticipate Winslow overtaking him or replacing him. The same goes for Mario Hezonja.

Hell, I think even if they take Porzingis, which would be probably the best move if all players mature as projected, but even then I think Tobias Harris is looking at minimal job security in terms of his place in the rotation there.

Fact is, they've already got Aaron Gordon waiting to play the 3 or the 4, depending on where they can get spacing from. If they take any of Winslow, Hezonja, Porzingis, it's just more obvious that the Magic may not be committed to Harris as their starting 3 long-term, like they seem to be with Payton, Oladipo, and Vucevic.

So unless they start winning with Harris, I imagine they'll just start him all next year, wait for his NTC to run out, and look at trading him. 

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Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2015, 11:42:54 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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It is bad business to develop a player and then just let another team sign the player in restricted free agency. Orlando should match any offer but they should have just offered the max before the deadline. If someone offers him a shorter contract with a player option Orlando will have acted very stupid.
He probably would not have signed as a player can get 1 to 2 more years by not doing an extention. Its 3 years for extentions vs by resigning 5 or signing 4 a new contract.

Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson signed four and five year extensions. Orlando could have offered a four year max before the season started.
Don't you give up the rfa QO option year for that so technically the team loses a year but player gets signed sooner. Would not have made sense doing that for Harris. He isn't in the same league as Irving or Thompson.

I don't know what you mean by the QO year.
It's the Bledsoe and Monroe RFA situation one took the extension you mentioned but the other took the QO. By playing the QO card the team gets an extra year at cheap $. So Harris if he walks earns Magic a pick if he plays under QO like Monroe they get a cheap year. And the third option is they can still match any offer.

Orlando does not get a pick if he walks. And if they give him QO he becomes unrestricted the next year when the cap jumps. It would have made sense to offer the four year max.
If they don't match an offer sheet they get a pick but they must first extend QO.

Im sorry but you are wrong in the NBA there is no draft pick compensation.
Maybe it has changed but I thought the RFA non-match gave former team equal pick compensation. Was it last CBA? If not it's the same.
There is no draft pick compensation for losing a free agent and hasn't been for quite some time.    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q48 

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #26 on: May 24, 2015, 11:46:13 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Harris is getting the max. He is 22 years old and avgd 17 ppg this year.

The max is only 16 mil tho so with cap escalation Id do it anyway.

He gives you scoring from the 3. Which was one of our biggest weaknesses this year.

To be fair, Harris averaged 17.5 points and 6.5 rebounds Per 36 minutes on a really bad lottery team.

His scoring efficiency (1.22 Points Per FGA) is pretty so-so, which suggests he's probably a "lots of touches on a bad team" type of scorer more so than anything.

He's also a terrible defensive player - his Defensive RPM of -2.2 ranks him in the bottom 10% (76th out of 86) among NBA Small Forwards.  That's pretty bad...

His over RPM of -2.53 was well below that of both Turner (-0.27) and Crowder (-1.07) which indicates that signing Harris might actually make us worse.

I do feel we need an upgrade at SF, but not sure if he (especially at max money) is that guy.

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2015, 12:24:49 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Harris is getting the max. He is 22 years old and avgd 17 ppg this year.

The max is only 16 mil tho so with cap escalation Id do it anyway.

He gives you scoring from the 3. Which was one of our biggest weaknesses this year.

To be fair, Harris averaged 17.5 points and 6.5 rebounds Per 36 minutes on a really bad lottery team.

His scoring efficiency (1.22 Points Per FGA) is pretty so-so, which suggests he's probably a "lots of touches on a bad team" type of scorer more so than anything.

He's also a terrible defensive player - his Defensive RPM of -2.2 ranks him in the bottom 10% (76th out of 86) among NBA Small Forwards.  That's pretty bad...

His over RPM of -2.53 was well below that of both Turner (-0.27) and Crowder (-1.07) which indicates that signing Harris might actually make us worse.

I do feel we need an upgrade at SF, but not sure if he (especially at max money) is that guy.

Checkout this, if you're judging most of your opinion on stats. Orlando basketball isn't exactly a prime-time event, but i buy this guy's take. Well, most of it.

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

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like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #28 on: May 25, 2015, 02:00:24 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Checkout this, if you're judging most of your opinion on stats. Orlando basketball isn't exactly a prime-time event, but i buy this guy's take. Well, most of it.

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

No disrespect, but I don't put much weight in articles such as this.

Firstly, articles like this are often misleading - frequently using cherry-picked statistical numbers to single out certain players, and make them look like they belong within a very small elite group. 

For example, in this article they claim that Harris is one of only 6 players averaged at least 15 points and 6 rebounds and shot 35% from three on at least 2 attempts.

But what about guys who averaged, say, 14.5 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 34.5% on 1.8 FGA?  How much difference would it make to move the goalposts just that little (and probably statically insignificant) bit?

It's enough to double the list from 6, to 11:

* Chris Bosh
* Dirk Nowizki
* James Harden
* Jimmy Butler
* Kawhi Leonard
* Kevin Durant
* Kevin Love
* Lebron James
* Paul Millsap
* Rudy Gay
* Tobias Harris

Now what about those guys who are putting up stats at the specified rate, but just aren't getting the benefit of playing time like Harris is (he's on 36 MPG, largely thanks to being on a bad team)? 

If we adjust the filters tho see who's averaging at least 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 35% 3PT on 2 or more three point attempts per 36 minutes that initial list now is almost quadrupled, jumping from 6 to 21:

* Andrea Bargnani
* Charlie Villenueva
* Chris Bosh
* Dirk Nowizki
* Donatas Montiejunas
* Ersan Illyasova
* Kawhi Leonard
* Kelly Olynyk
* Kevin Durant
* Kevin Love
* Lebron James
* Luol Deng
* Marcus Morris
* Omri Casspi
* Paul George
* Paul Millsap
* Robert Covington
* Rudy Gay
* Serge Ibaka
* Shabazz Mohammed
* Tobias Harris

You can see now how quickly these things can escalate, and how the specific set of stats used for the filter were able to nicely put Harris up on a Podium that he may not necessarily be worthy of.

For example, lets see how many guys in the NBA averaged at least 13 points, at least 7.5 rebounds, at least 2 assists, max 2 turnovers and max 3 fouls while shooting 70% FT.  None of those stats are particular standout, so you think it'd be a pretty big list, right? 

Only 6 guys:

Anthony Davis
Enes Kanter
Jared Sullinger
Kevin Love
LaMarcus Aldridge
Tim Duncan

Does this list do anything to convince you that Sully and Kanter are in any shape or form on the level of Anthony Davis, Kevin Love, LMA or Timmy D?  Of course not...but that's what this particular selection of stats willtell you.

For the record, I'm not trying to be a smarty pants here - just trying to demonstrate how easy it can be to  make almost any player stand out just by cherry picking certain stats.

To me the important factor to remember here is that basketball has one goal, to outscore your opponent.  Your ability to score must be great than their ability to stop you from scoring, and vice-versa.

That mean ultimately there are only two factors that really matter in basketball:
* Offense
* Defense

All other sub categories of stats ultimately contribute to one of these two categories. 

Now Harris is, statistically, a very poor defensive player (the entire team's defense suffers significantly when he steps on) so the only way it becomes worthwhile to put him on the court is if he can have such a huge impact offensively that your team's offense improves at least as much as(if not more than) it's defense drops off.  This is exactly what happens with Isaiah Thomas, which is why we can justifying putting him on the court even despite his defensive woes.

Unfortunately for Tobias Harris, it's hard to argue that this is the case, and here are some reasons why:

1) He's averaging 17 points per 36 (Avery Bradley numbers) which tells me that his outright ability to put puts on the board is not especially outstanding.  Especially considering he's one of the primary scoring options on a pretty poor lottery team. 

2) In terms of scoring efficiency average of 1.22 points per FGA puts him dead in between Jae Crowder (0.16) and Brandon Bass (1.28). This tells me efficiency as a scorer merely 'OK' and certainly not fantastic.  Guys who shoot threes or get to the line at a very high level (and of course, guys who do both) tend to have the good scoring efficiency numbers because they earn a free bonus point with every 3PT / FT they make and hence they can put a significant number of points on the board without having to take a whole lot of shots.   Harris' scoring efficiency number indicates that he's not really either of those three guys.

3) Offensive RPM can help to identify the little things a guy does to help his team that you don't necessarily see in the regular stats.  Things like diving for loose balls (generating extra possessions), making many good hockey passes (pass that leads to an assist) setting great screens to get teammates open, etc.  Harris' Offensive RPM is -0.3 which tells me that when he gets on the floor for his team, their offense actually gets slightly WORSE.  Not by a large margin mind you, and you may even be able to argue that it's negligible...but the fact is he doesn't make the team any better.

So looking at all of he above, we can see that:
a) Harris makes his team worse defensively (and significantly so) when he gets on the court
b) Harris doesn't score at a spectacular rate
c) Harris doesn't score with spectacular efficiency
d) Harris doesn't make his team better offensively when he gets on the court

I think point A and D are the key ones here, because there are cases of guys who actually make their teams better on offense when they step on the court, despite the fact that they don't score a huge amount of points.  Some examples are DeAndre Jordan, Draymond Green, Matt Barnes and Zaza Pachilia - all have positive Offensive RPM figures despite not being known as being especially skilled scorers.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2015, 04:08:56 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Scott Skiles makes Tobias Harris available?
« Reply #29 on: May 25, 2015, 04:04:51 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Read an article a while ago that Philly is offering him the max. 

That'd be interesting.

PG - DeAngelo Russell
SG - Wroten
SF - Harris
PF - Noel
C - Embiid
... Plus I think they have four 1st round picks next season and Dario Saric.  Lots of assets to play with. 

But Orlando will match.