Chad Ford: Upshaw's off-the-court issues more serious than initially thought

[Yoki_IsTheName]

From a recent Basketball Insiders chat:

Alex Kennedy

I don’t think Robert Upshaw is a first-round pick and I’m not even sure if he’ll be drafted, to be honest. As teams are digging into his situation and doing their homework, there are red flags left and right (and it’s not just the substance abuse, from what I’m told). I hope he can get the help he needs and turn his life around, but I’ve talked to some people around the NBA who say there’s no way they would pick him – in either round.

That's crazy. I get not picking him in the first round if you worry about the red flags. But being undrafted? He's not even going to be worth risking a non-guaranteed contract!? Shut the front door...

You'd have to be a criminal for that to happen, and from what I read, he hasn't been charged with a crime. His talents and potential are too good for the second round. For execs to tell him they won't even draft him in the 2nd are either two things...

a.) They know something that we don't, like criminal records or ongoing trial about a felony he committed. Or...

b.) They're just blowing A TON of smoke so he'd drop way too far.

I think it's safe to say that even the anti Upshaw guys would think that he's worth taking a flier in the second round. Those red flags better be criminal records for them to not even consider drafting him in the 2nd round.

Of course they know things that we don't know.  I have no idea why everyone on this blog automatically assumes he is merely a pot smoker.

I'm not assuming that. I'm just saying that if none will even give him a look on the 2nd round, when it's already considered a low risk high reward, something is not right.

He's too talented to not even be able to be drafted in the second round. His red flags may have to involve future jail time foer him to not even get a look at #40-60. Or GM's are just blowing smoke to each other so he'd drop on the 2nd round.

I'd still swing at #16 if he's available. So what of the red flags, this is the perfect time to go big or go home. Too muchpotential to pass.

That would be such an awful decision. "If available"? Obviously he'll be available at #16 and he'll be available way after that too. You simply can't give this guy a guaranteed contract because of the risks with him. Addiction(s) and having money = a recipe for disaster so you have to protect your investment by making his contract non-guanteed, which it is in the 2nd rd.

We can and we should because he's, as Chad Ford mentioned, is lottery talent.

Unless he got drunk, failed a drug test or commit a crime recently, we need to pick him at #16 before anyone else does. As a team, we should not be worried about his past but instead focus on his future. He's a talented kid, who seems to be trying to het his life on track (he hired a life coach and checked into rehab and finished). Just to pass on him because of a troubled past is passing on what could be a great talent, and a position we desperately need.

There's no way he'll last in the second round. That talent, with that potential? There's absolutely no way, even with the red flags, unless the red flags are so criminal he's facing tome out of the court because of legal issues.

We've seen this story play out before. Chris Washburn, Roy Tarpley, etc. Both were bigs, both were extremely talented (much more than Upshaw), both checked themselves into rehab clinics, but both ultimately succumbed to the temptation of drugs and the NBA lifestyle. Perhaps Upshaw is unique in that he doesn't follow the same self-destructive path, but it's a gamble I'm not willing to take with a 1st rd pick, a 16th pick no less.

Fair enough.

All I'm saying I've never read or heard anything recently to suggest that he's going to revert back to his bad habits. He's got to much potential to drop in the 2nd round, and with a ton of picks in hand for the next two to three years, this is the perfect time to gamble on someone with high upside, especially in that draft position where most of the players left could be just potential role players.

Look, I love Upshaw as a player. However, giving him a non-guaranteed deal also gives him extra incentive to remain clean.

Oh I get that. I'm.just saying there's no way he lasts that long, despite all these reports. Alex Kennedy must be gettingword from GM's that are just blowing smoke, hoping he'd drop to within reach for them. Who knows, maybe Since is one of them, didn't he work out with us already?

I just don't buy the "too many red flags, will not be drafted" claim. He's too talented to even get passed in the 2nd round. I'm just in the mindset that why not just draft him at #16 before anybody else does. I don't think it makes a difference if the contract is guaranteed or not, if he's the headcase that people are predicting him to be, he will drop regardless of earnings. I doubt that though. The fact that he hired a guy to keep him in check and did his part in rehabbing suggest to me that he knows he has a tight thread to walk on, and can't screw it up.

Sixty days in rehab at his age is a pretty serious situation.

And he finished it.

[JohnBoy65]

I read the first few pages and then it got to 10 and I stopped, so I apologize if I make some points that have already been stated.

The situation with Upshaw certainly seems pretty serious, but with the amount of picks the Celtics have these are the types of picks they need to make. I wouldn't use a pick before 33 on him, and even then, maybe we could stretch it to 45. It may work and it may not.

Secondly, I don't have proof of this, but I really think the professional sports are cleaner than college sports. Maybe he needs to be on a professional sports team with constant support, a close knit team, and trainers all over the place. Sure college is like that, but there are also thousands more kids on campus getting into all sorts of crap. I just graduated from a small Jesuit college in NY a couple weeks ago. I could get any drug I wanted within an hour (I am not a user at all. Just trying to make a point). Not to mention, Upshaw is probably one of the most popular guys on campus, and people are just begging to party with him. I think his transition into professional sports could actually help him, and what better way to do it when a great coach and front office like the Boston Celtics.

[Granath]

Unless he got drunk, failed a drug test or commit a crime recently

In what universe does getting kicked off of 3 teams, having a major drug/alcohol problem and going to rehab all within the last 3 years not qualify as "recently"?

Look, you obviously prefer to try to hit the home run shot rather than going for a contributor. And that I understand. But there's two other factors you seem to don't get:

(1) It's quite likely you get get him after #16. Virtually no one believes he's going earlier than the 20s and if the Celtics want him they can certainly move up from 28 with the 5,000,000 2nd round picks they have over the next 2 years. You're not talking about a top 5 talent here. With an unblemished record he probably wouldn't go until 10-15 anyway because he's so raw and there's very little game tape. But he's not unblemished. He has serious issues and that's going to hurt his stock. There's no use in overpaying for him.

(2) You always - and I mean on every single post on this topic - either downplay or entirely overlook the consequences of bringing in a major problem child on a young, impressionable team. Remember, if he doesn't pan out it's not just the opportunity cost of the draft choice plus the salary paid. It's also any damage he does to the ball club and their players while being on it. Remember the Jail Blazers? That doesn't happen by accident. In a team without strong starting veteran leadership - something the Celtics don't have any of - you have to be extra careful because the ramifications of bringing in a cancer are much worse than on an established veteran team.

[LooseCannon]

From a recent Basketball Insiders chat:

Alex Kennedy

I don’t think Robert Upshaw is a first-round pick and I’m not even sure if he’ll be drafted, to be honest. As teams are digging into his situation and doing their homework, there are red flags left and right (and it’s not just the substance abuse, from what I’m told). I hope he can get the help he needs and turn his life around, but I’ve talked to some people around the NBA who say there’s no way they would pick him – in either round.

That's crazy. I get not picking him in the first round if you worry about the red flags. But being undrafted? He's not even going to be worth risking a non-guaranteed contract!? Shut the front door...

You'd have to be a criminal for that to happen, and from what I read, he hasn't been charged with a crime. His talents and potential are too good for the second round. For execs to tell him they won't even draft him in the 2nd are either two things...

a.) They know something that we don't, like criminal records or ongoing trial about a felony he committed. Or...

b.) They're just blowing A TON of smoke so he'd drop way too far.

I think it's safe to say that even the anti Upshaw guys would think that he's worth taking a flier in the second round. Those red flags better be criminal records for them to not even consider drafting him in the 2nd round.

Of course they know things that we don't know.  I have no idea why everyone on this blog automatically assumes he is merely a pot smoker.

I'm not assuming that. I'm just saying that if none will even give him a look on the 2nd round, when it's already considered a low risk high reward, something is not right.

He's too talented to not even be able to be drafted in the second round. His red flags may have to involve future jail time foer him to not even get a look at #40-60. Or GM's are just blowing smoke to each other so he'd drop on the 2nd round.

I'd still swing at #16 if he's available. So what of the red flags, this is the perfect time to go big or go home. Too muchpotential to pass.

That would be such an awful decision. "If available"? Obviously he'll be available at #16 and he'll be available way after that too. You simply can't give this guy a guaranteed contract because of the risks with him. Addiction(s) and having money = a recipe for disaster so you have to protect your investment by making his contract non-guanteed, which it is in the 2nd rd.

We can and we should because he's, as Chad Ford mentioned, is lottery talent.

Unless he got drunk, failed a drug test or commit a crime recently, we need to pick him at #16 before anyone else does. As a team, we should not be worried about his past but instead focus on his future. He's a talented kid, who seems to be trying to het his life on track (he hired a life coach and checked into rehab and finished). Just to pass on him because of a troubled past is passing on what could be a great talent, and a position we desperately need.

There's no way he'll last in the second round. That talent, with that potential? There's absolutely no way, even with the red flags, unless the red flags are so criminal he's facing tome out of the court because of legal issues.

We've seen this story play out before. Chris Washburn, Roy Tarpley, etc. Both were bigs, both were extremely talented (much more than Upshaw), both checked themselves into rehab clinics, but both ultimately succumbed to the temptation of drugs and the NBA lifestyle. Perhaps Upshaw is unique in that he doesn't follow the same self-destructive path, but it's a gamble I'm not willing to take with a 1st rd pick, a 16th pick no less.

Fair enough.

All I'm saying I've never read or heard anything recently to suggest that he's going to revert back to his bad habits. He's got to much potential to drop in the 2nd round, and with a ton of picks in hand for the next two to three years, this is the perfect time to gamble on someone with high upside, especially in that draft position where most of the players left could be just potential role players.

Look, I love Upshaw as a player. However, giving him a non-guaranteed deal also gives him extra incentive to remain clean.

Oh I get that. I'm.just saying there's no way he lasts that long, despite all these reports. Alex Kennedy must be gettingword from GM's that are just blowing smoke, hoping he'd drop to within reach for them. Who knows, maybe Since is one of them, didn't he work out with us already?

I just don't buy the "too many red flags, will not be drafted" claim. He's too talented to even get passed in the 2nd round. I'm just in the mindset that why not just draft him at #16 before anybody else does. I don't think it makes a difference if the contract is guaranteed or not, if he's the headcase that people are predicting him to be, he will drop regardless of earnings. I doubt that though. The fact that he hired a guy to keep him in check and did his part in rehabbing suggest to me that he knows he has a tight thread to walk on, and can't screw it up.

Sixty days in rehab at his age is a pretty serious situation.

And he finished it.

He went through the John Lucas rehab program after getting kicked out of Fresno State and before going to Washington.

[colincb]

From today's 4PM Steve Kyler Chat at Basketball Insiders

Robert: Upshaw seemed to put up some amazing stats in his limited time in college, if the ‘off-court’ distractions weren’t present is he top 5? or even top 3?
       
Steve Kyler: I mean this genuinely… this is like saying that guy could be the president if he didn’t shoot someone.

        The stuff I have heard about Robert Upshaw is stunning… I have openly said to executives “are you ****ting me?” when they talk about what they are finding out about him.

        I don’t think you can call a serious substance abuse problem an ‘off-court’ distraction – there are thing you couldn’t believe are true going on this. I hope Robert gets his life turned around. He seemed like a nice kid at the Combine and there is no doubting he’s talented but you can’t remove the flag and say wouldn’t he be great, the flag is absolutely why he’s not.

Kyler's been saying similar stuff about Upshaw for awhile.  He also speaks well of Ford as being on top of  draft issues.

[hpantazo]

From today's 4PM Steve Kyler Chat at Basketball Insiders

Robert: Upshaw seemed to put up some amazing stats in his limited time in college, if the ‘off-court’ distractions weren’t present is he top 5? or even top 3?
       
Steve Kyler: I mean this genuinely… this is like saying that guy could be the president if he didn’t shoot someone.

        The stuff I have heard about Robert Upshaw is stunning… I have openly said to executives “are you ****ting me?” when they talk about what they are finding out about him.

        I don’t think you can call a serious substance abuse problem an ‘off-court’ distraction – there are thing you couldn’t believe are true going on this. I hope Robert gets his life turned around. He seemed like a nice kid at the Combine and there is no doubting he’s talented but you can’t remove the flag and say wouldn’t he be great, the flag is absolutely why he’s not.

Kyler's been saying similar stuff about Upshaw for awhile.  He also speaks well of Ford as being on top of  draft issues.

Wow. That sounds a lot more Aaron Hernandez like than Larry Sanders like to me.

[Birdman]

Pass

[celticsclay]

From today's 4PM Steve Kyler Chat at Basketball Insiders

Robert: Upshaw seemed to put up some amazing stats in his limited time in college, if the ‘off-court’ distractions weren’t present is he top 5? or even top 3?
       
Steve Kyler: I mean this genuinely… this is like saying that guy could be the president if he didn’t shoot someone.

        The stuff I have heard about Robert Upshaw is stunning… I have openly said to executives “are you ****ting me?” when they talk about what they are finding out about him.

        I don’t think you can call a serious substance abuse problem an ‘off-court’ distraction – there are thing you couldn’t believe are true going on this. I hope Robert gets his life turned around. He seemed like a nice kid at the Combine and there is no doubting he’s talented but you can’t remove the flag and say wouldn’t he be great, the flag is absolutely why he’s not.

Kyler's been saying similar stuff about Upshaw for awhile.  He also speaks well of Ford as being on top of  draft issues.

Wow. That sounds a lot more Aaron Hernandez like than Larry Sanders like to me.

Yea I think it might make sense to stop advocating for this guy as fans and just trust that Danny and management would make the right call on him with access to a lot more information than we have. I think I would feel pretty slimy now if I had spend a ton of time arguing why the patriots should draft Hernandez a few years back despite red flags. I see now reason why ford and others would just make this stuff up.

[Forza Juventus]

None of us know what happened. Like literally we know nothing. How can you decide whether you would pick him or not without knowing anything? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt but we have to wait until more information comes out to really have a fair opinion. It seems like the teams know a lot but we don't really even know that. Let's just wait for the draft.

[colincb]

None of us know what happened. Like literally we know nothing. How can you decide whether you would pick him or not without knowing anything? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt but we have to wait until more information comes out to really have a fair opinion. It seems like the teams know a lot but we don't really even know that. Let's just wait for the draft.

If you hunt around enough you'd know that reportedly some teams don't even have him on their draft boards and there are enough credible guys saying NBA execs have a real problem with him.  If you're looking to take a flyer on him with a late first where the guaranteed money is lower or better still in the second, where it's not guaranteed that's one thing. You don't touch a guy like this before #20 in this draft where you have a good shot at picking up a productive NBA player.

[Forza Juventus]

None of us know what happened. Like literally we know nothing. How can you decide whether you would pick him or not without knowing anything? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt but we have to wait until more information comes out to really have a fair opinion. It seems like the teams know a lot but we don't really even know that. Let's just wait for the draft.

If you hunt around enough you'd know that reportedly some teams don't even have him on their draft boards and there are enough credible guys saying NBA execs have a real problem with him.  If you're looking to take a flyer on him with a late first where the guaranteed money is lower or better still in the second, where it's not guaranteed that's one thing. You don't touch a guy like this before #20 in this draft where you have a good shot at picking up a productive NBA player.

Chad Ford is not credible. We know nothing yet. Vague reports from from people like Chad Ford are meaningless. Just wait for more information to come out before having such a strong opinion.

[Celtics4ever]

Is his getting kicked out of two programs credible despite being a star athlete?

[Forza Juventus]

Is his getting kicked out of two programs credible despite being a star athlete?

I don't understand why we can't just wait until we actually know what happened before having a strong opinion. A lot of people seemed to give Robert Upshaw the benefit of the doubt before the vague and anonymous reports came out.

[colincb]

None of us know what happened. Like literally we know nothing. How can you decide whether you would pick him or not without knowing anything? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt but we have to wait until more information comes out to really have a fair opinion. It seems like the teams know a lot but we don't really even know that. Let's just wait for the draft.

If you hunt around enough you'd know that reportedly some teams don't even have him on their draft boards and there are enough credible guys saying NBA execs have a real problem with him.  If you're looking to take a flyer on him with a late first where the guaranteed money is lower or better still in the second, where it's not guaranteed that's one thing. You don't touch a guy like this before #20 in this draft where you have a good shot at picking up a productive NBA player.

Chad Ford is not credible. We know nothing yet. Vague reports from from people like Chad Ford are meaningless. Just wait for more information to come out before having such a strong opinion.

You might not know nothing yet, but I know enough to state that we shouldn't take him with our 16th pick.

[colincb]

Is his getting kicked out of two programs credible despite being a star athlete?

I don't understand why we can't just wait until we actually know what happened before having a strong opinion. A lot of people seemed to give Robert Upshaw the benefit of the doubt before the vague and anonymous reports came out.

There has been a lot of speculation about Upshaw going back months.  A. Sherrod Blakely reported a couple of days before Ford's chat:

I spoke with three different teams who are in the lottery this year and all three acknowledged he would be a sure-fire lottery pick if not for his past.

It’s so troubling that all three executives said that Upshaw was not on their draft board.

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/will-nba-teams-be-willing-take-chance-robert-upshaw

That's specific and consistent with what Steve Kyler's been saying for some time now.