Author Topic: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?  (Read 15378 times)

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Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #45 on: May 22, 2015, 01:26:32 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Saying Isiah's defense is a negative is a pretty big understatement, imo.  Is he a good player?  Yes, but he also happens to be a volume shooter who often plays out of control and is pretty selfish, to be honest, especially for a point guard.

Volume shooter - how? 

He only averaged 13 FGA per game this season.  Take a look at all the other players in the league who are averaging around 19 PPG and I think you'll find very few (if any) who have done so on < 14 FGA per game. 

Thomas is an extremely efficient scorer in terms of the number of points he scores relative to the number of FGA it takes for him to get those points.  His scoring efficiency (PTS / FGA) of 0.4 is not only among the highest in the NBA right now, it's among some of the highest numbers in NBA history.  That's specially impressive given he's a PG, because that's usually the least efficient offensive position on the court. 

With the exception of Chris Paul, John Stockton and Magic Johnson (maybe Steve Nash?) I don't know of many other Point Guards who have had that type of offensive efficiency. 

As for being selfish and playing out of control, I don't see that either.

He has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.08 which is pretty respectable for an NBA PG, especially one with a shoot-first mentality.  In fact, he ranks 20th among all NBA PG's in that category. His number is in the ballpark of guys like Derek Rose, Deron Williams, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker and Jeff Teague...and his scoring efficiency is better than any of those guys. 

When I see him play, I often see him pass up average or good shots for a teammate who has a better shot.  I've also seen teams throw almost endless traps and presses at him, and I'm not sure if I've seem him lose the ball once as a result.

He's a better offensive player than many give him credit for - people get overly caught up on his size and his perceived defensive issues (which are legit weaknesses) to the point where they don't really recognize how good he is on the other end of the court.

26.4 / 7.5 / 2.9

Those are Thomas' Per-36 stats.  He doesn't get those stats because he doesn't play the minutes, and he doesn't play the minutes because of his size and what that brings.  But don't make the mistake of underestimating his skills - if he was 6'3" he'd be an all out superstar, easily Kyrie Irving good.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #46 on: May 22, 2015, 01:34:16 AM »

Offline colincb

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Saying Isiah's defense is a negative is a pretty big understatement, imo.  Is he a good player?  Yes, but he also happens to be a volume shooter who often plays out of control and is pretty selfish, to be honest, especially for a point guard.

For that to happen, they'd probably have to whiff on several other potential trades before reluctantly trading. I've said all along I think NY would trade their pick, but what star is actually available for it right now? Divac made it pretty clear that DMC was out, and the only other potential "star-caliber" players that I can think of being available are Lawson and potentially Lowry.

When compared to those trades, IT, 16, and the Brooklyn 2016 pick for Calderon and #4 is probably one of the better ones they could get as of right now before any other potential star becomes available. IT is an excellent shooter for the Triangle, they could get a PF prospect at 16, and they'd actually have a pick next year, which could potentially end up being pretty good, too. If they're trying to win right now with Melo, they won't pick a rookie at #4. They'd still have cap space to try for free agents, too.

I still think their best option would be to trade Melo to LA for #2, but there's no way the glamorous NYK go that route.

Well, that and Phil Jackson is 70. He's not in this for a long rebuild. His goal is to put stars around Melo this summer and win another title or two.
Knicks should trade Melo for Julius Randle.   

Why for New York? -  They can build around Mudiay and Randle and have zillions of dollars in cap space to play with.

Why for LA?  -  They have Okafor and likely Kevin Love locked up... Jordan Clarkson and Kobe at the guards.   Melo would fit in nicely with that at SF.

NYK would have to take a lot of crappy players and contracts back to make your trade work (or Kobe). Knicks say no without hesitation either way.

The OP's idea doesn't work either though I don't doubt that IT has raised his value considerably since he came to BOS.  High draft picks are always overvalued. Last year's #4 got you Gordon and #5 got you Exum.  Mudiay, Russell, or maybe the Euros are the BPA there, but none are as strong a candidate as the top two picks.

I wouldn't be giving IT and a couple of firsts for anyone likely to be at 4 myself, and especially the two Americans guards, but that won't stop the madness because high picks after the top tier are always overvalued. Better crapshoot than mid-rounders, but there's much to say in favor of having a lot of good picks. In that regard, Tankathon has our picks this year valued as the 6th best package and I'd rather trade into the 6-10 range if Danny sees value there.

http://www.tankathon.com/power_rankings
High draft picks are not over valued.  Top 10 picks have a much better success rate than those outside the top 10.   Top 10 rookie contracts are also relatively cheap.  If you draft well, you get great value during the rookie contract and are almost certain to resign the player to their second contract.  If you draft a complete bust, it hurts but you can dump the player after his 2nd season.  In contrast, a significant trade or free agency bust has much more negative impact on a team.

There are a lot of top 10 busts and given enough picks you are going to make up the difference. I'd say the model I linked to that makes that point may overvalue top 10 picks if they go too far back because the structure of the draft has changed pretty dramatically with so many players playing for 1 year and 3 and 4 year players being discounted during the draft process because they have a shorter career.  GMs are visualizing how guys who have very limited playing experience will translate somewhere down the road into the NBA based primarily on athleticism.  That's how you get GMs picking a guy like Gordon last year who cannot shoot.

I'd rather have a trade for established talent every day of the week because if I'm an NBA GM, I should have a good idea of whether he can play, how he'll fit in my system, and avoid the complete busts that are possible. A lot less risk in the last instance as long as you're a good GM like DA. There's a lot more hope and guessing in the lottery than picking up a guy like IT.

You're also ignoring the cost of a high lottery bust for the rebuilding teams that populate the bottom 10.  A bust can easily set back the guys you do have who are playing losing basketball with a stiff that you have to play to see what you have. Losing players  pick up bad habits and attitude that comes from playing for your next contract as your main goal. As far as cap ramifications, that's not the problem for the worst teams. They can't attract players to use the free cap they have while the good teams have to figure out how to retain their players. The worst 10 teams have the most cap on average especially when you factor in who the good teams have to re-sign.  We could let all our FAs walk if we could get a top talent to come here instead. Then there's the Nets which is the exception that proves the rule.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #47 on: May 22, 2015, 01:44:41 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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Saying Isiah's defense is a negative is a pretty big understatement, imo.  Is he a good player?  Yes, but he also happens to be a volume shooter who often plays out of control and is pretty selfish, to be honest, especially for a point guard.

Volume shooter - how? 

He only averaged 13 FGA per game this season.  Take a look at all the other players in the league who are averaging around 19 PPG and I think you'll find very few (if any) who have done so on < 14 FGA per game. 

Thomas is an extremely efficient scorer in terms of the number of points he scores relative to the number of FGA it takes for him to get those points.  His scoring efficiency (PTS / FGA) of 0.4 is not only among the highest in the NBA right now, it's among some of the highest numbers in NBA history.  That's specially impressive given he's a PG, because that's usually the least efficient offensive position on the court. 

With the exception of Chris Paul, John Stockton and Magic Johnson (maybe Steve Nash?) I don't know of many other Point Guards who have had that type of offensive efficiency. 

As for being selfish and playing out of control, I don't see that either.

He has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.08 which is pretty respectable for an NBA PG, especially one with a shoot-first mentality.  In fact, he ranks 20th among all NBA PG's in that category. His number is in the ballpark of guys like Derek Rose, Deron Williams, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker and Jeff Teague...and his scoring efficiency is better than any of those guys. 

When I see him play, I often see him pass up average or good shots for a teammate who has a better shot.  I've also seen teams throw almost endless traps and presses at him, and I'm not sure if I've seem him lose the ball once as a result.

He's a better offensive player than many give him credit for - people get overly caught up on his size and his perceived defensive issues (which are legit weaknesses) to the point where they don't really recognize how good he is on the other end of the court.

26.4 / 7.5 / 2.9

Those are Thomas' Per-36 stats.  He doesn't get those stats because he doesn't play the minutes, and he doesn't play the minutes because of his size and what that brings.  But don't make the mistake of underestimating his skills - if he was 6'3" he'd be an all out superstar, easily Kyrie Irving good.

Did you not watch the series against the Cavs?  At the most crucial times in those games, Thomas played completely out of control, going all one-on-one, and turned the ball over repeatedly by getting in the air before realizing what he wanted to do, which is a cardinal sin for any player, but especially for a point guard.  He just seems to have blinders on, out there, imo.  I'm not underestimating his ability or underrating him, I'm just saying that he's all about himself when he's on the court, imo, and despite his obviously outstanding quickness, he doesn't have a very good handle by which he can create his own shot, either, so that's not good, lol ;D.  The guy certainly hits big shots, I'll give him that, but I think he's a 'me not we' player, if you catch my drift.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #48 on: May 22, 2015, 01:50:48 AM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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I'd first pitch Bradley and 16, as they are in need of players at every position but 3/4. When that doesn't work, I'd gladly give up Smart + 16 for Winslow. I am biased, as I love this kid, but I don't see this being much of a risk. Who do we covet at 16 that even matters? I'd take a flyer. I like Smart a lot, but I'm not sure he's going to turn into much more than a stronger Bradley (who I also like). So why not? Guy has the potential to be a stud, which I never believed to be the case for Smart. And I'd agree with Beat LA if we didn't have IT on such a favorable contract, especially with the upcoming cap increase.
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Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #49 on: May 22, 2015, 02:16:44 AM »

Offline colincb

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Saying Isiah's defense is a negative is a pretty big understatement, imo.  Is he a good player?  Yes, but he also happens to be a volume shooter who often plays out of control and is pretty selfish, to be honest, especially for a point guard.

His defense is awful and one of the worst in the NBA, but his offense is a lot stronger than you allow for.

12th in Offensive Real +/-

His Total Shooting % is 38th out of 267 qualifying players and 6th among PGs.  TS% is independent of usage and he's been very consistent over his career. IOW, he's a very good shooter. He's 7th among qualifying PGs in PER.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #50 on: May 22, 2015, 02:21:13 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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I'd first pitch Bradley and 16, as they are in need of players at every position but 3/4. When that doesn't work, I'd gladly give up Smart + 16 for Winslow. I am biased, as I love this kid, but I don't see this being much of a risk. Who do we covet at 16 that even matters? I'd take a flyer. I like Smart a lot, but I'm not sure he's going to turn into much more than a stronger Bradley (who I also like). So why not? Guy has the potential to be a stud, which I never believed to be the case for Smart. And I'd agree with Beat LA if we didn't have IT on such a favorable contract, especially with the upcoming cap increase.
I'm not that high on Smart but I'd try harder to avoid including him in the trade.  If Bradley and #16 wasn't enough, I'd add Sully or KO (their choice) to the offer.  After that I'd add one of next year's 1sts.  If we did get the #4, I'd probably take Russell if he was still available.  I think Smart and Russell would good complementary starting backcourt. 

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #51 on: May 22, 2015, 03:47:55 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Saying Isiah's defense is a negative is a pretty big understatement, imo.  Is he a good player?  Yes, but he also happens to be a volume shooter who often plays out of control and is pretty selfish, to be honest, especially for a point guard.

For that to happen, they'd probably have to whiff on several other potential trades before reluctantly trading. I've said all along I think NY would trade their pick, but what star is actually available for it right now? Divac made it pretty clear that DMC was out, and the only other potential "star-caliber" players that I can think of being available are Lawson and potentially Lowry.

When compared to those trades, IT, 16, and the Brooklyn 2016 pick for Calderon and #4 is probably one of the better ones they could get as of right now before any other potential star becomes available. IT is an excellent shooter for the Triangle, they could get a PF prospect at 16, and they'd actually have a pick next year, which could potentially end up being pretty good, too. If they're trying to win right now with Melo, they won't pick a rookie at #4. They'd still have cap space to try for free agents, too.

I still think their best option would be to trade Melo to LA for #2, but there's no way the glamorous NYK go that route.

Well, that and Phil Jackson is 70. He's not in this for a long rebuild. His goal is to put stars around Melo this summer and win another title or two.
Knicks should trade Melo for Julius Randle.   

Why for New York? -  They can build around Mudiay and Randle and have zillions of dollars in cap space to play with.

Why for LA?  -  They have Okafor and likely Kevin Love locked up... Jordan Clarkson and Kobe at the guards.   Melo would fit in nicely with that at SF.

NYK would have to take a lot of crappy players and contracts back to make your trade work (or Kobe). Knicks say no without hesitation either way.

The OP's idea doesn't work either though I don't doubt that IT has raised his value considerably since he came to BOS.  High draft picks are always overvalued. Last year's #4 got you Gordon and #5 got you Exum.  Mudiay, Russell, or maybe the Euros are the BPA there, but none are as strong a candidate as the top two picks.

I wouldn't be giving IT and a couple of firsts for anyone likely to be at 4 myself, and especially the two Americans guards, but that won't stop the madness because high picks after the top tier are always overvalued. Better crapshoot than mid-rounders, but there's much to say in favor of having a lot of good picks. In that regard, Tankathon has our picks this year valued as the 6th best package and I'd rather trade into the 6-10 range if Danny sees value there.

http://www.tankathon.com/power_rankings
High draft picks are not over valued.  Top 10 picks have a much better success rate than those outside the top 10.   Top 10 rookie contracts are also relatively cheap.  If you draft well, you get great value during the rookie contract and are almost certain to resign the player to their second contract.  If you draft a complete bust, it hurts but you can dump the player after his 2nd season.  In contrast, a significant trade or free agency bust has much more negative impact on a team.

There are a lot of top 10 busts and given enough picks you are going to make up the difference. I'd say the model I linked to that makes that point may overvalue top 10 picks if they go too far back because the structure of the draft has changed pretty dramatically with so many players playing for 1 year and 3 and 4 year players being discounted during the draft process because they have a shorter career.  GMs are visualizing how guys who have very limited playing experience will translate somewhere down the road into the NBA based primarily on athleticism.  That's how you get GMs picking a guy like Gordon last year who cannot shoot.

I'd rather have a trade for established talent every day of the week because if I'm an NBA GM, I should have a good idea of whether he can play, how he'll fit in my system, and avoid the complete busts that are possible. A lot less risk in the last instance as long as you're a good GM like DA. There's a lot more hope and guessing in the lottery than picking up a guy like IT.

You're also ignoring the cost of a high lottery bust for the rebuilding teams that populate the bottom 10.  A bust can easily set back the guys you do have who are playing losing basketball with a stiff that you have to play to see what you have. Losing players  pick up bad habits and attitude that comes from playing for your next contract as your main goal. As far as cap ramifications, that's not the problem for the worst teams. They can't attract players to use the free cap they have while the good teams have to figure out how to retain their players. The worst 10 teams have the most cap on average especially when you factor in who the good teams have to re-sign.  We could let all our FAs walk if we could get a top talent to come here instead. Then there's the Nets which is the exception that proves the rule.
The history of the NBA is replete with bad trades.  Trading IT for a late 1st was a good trade but IT is just a good backup PG.  Drafting in the top 10 gives you a chance to get a star.  The Sixers took a chance drafting Embiid with his injuries.  If he busts it will certainly hurt their rebuild but they'll still be in much better shape than after the Bynum trade bust. 

As to your last point, bad habits come from poor effort and selfishness on the players part and poor coaching not losing per se.  The Sixers, a team with limited NBA caliber talent, finished with the 3rd worst record but their defense was in the top half of the league. 

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #52 on: May 29, 2015, 12:04:45 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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I love this idea.  Hope some variation of it happens.  We might land Winslow at #4, or even D'Angelo Russell if he slips past #3.  I believe that IT is a dynamic scoring guard, but he is not suited to being other than a 6th man for the Celtics. 

Even if IT is the best 6th man in the league, I think you have to move him if an opportunity to move up to #4 presents itself.  Not sure if this rumor has real legs, but it would make for a very exciting draft night if this happened.  :-)

IT is not really our backup PG. If we do not trade him or something happens he will be a starter. I mean he really is a starter and a dam good player. He would also be perfect for NY.

Just because we value Smart higher than IT does not mean the right team would not want IT over Smart. Over time I believe Smart will be a great 2 way player but don't get it confused, he is having a hard time even penetrating.

Also IT contract is an added value. Please try to remember that IT should be getting paid much more than 6 mil a year. That is very desirable to a team like NY who will be throwing money at top FA's.

So we trade IT and his (add value here) contract to NY. Then we absorb JC contract (2 years) which is at least worth an unprotected pick, if not more; ie another protected 1st or 2nd rounders. Then the Knicks would have more efficient roster and could go after better or more FA's THIS YEAR before the cap explodes.

Try to think of it like that.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #53 on: May 29, 2015, 12:57:32 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm amazed this thread has gone on this long.

Isaiah Thomas is not getting you a top-5 pick. Stop the madness.

Go post this on any non-Celtics forum and see the reaction.
They'd burn Madison square garden down if Phil Jackson did this.   Thomas is a gimmicky backup point guard.   This is just as likely as the celtics trading 16 and 28 for Nate Robinson.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #54 on: May 29, 2015, 01:02:30 AM »

Offline knuckleballer

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I'm amazed this thread has gone on this long.

Isaiah Thomas is not getting you a top-5 pick. Stop the madness.

Go post this on any non-Celtics forum and see the reaction.
They'd burn Madison square garden down if Phil Jackson did this.   Thomas is a gimmicky backup point guard.   You have a better chance of seeing the celtics trade 16 and 28 for Nate Robinson.

All the more reason to make the trade.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #55 on: May 29, 2015, 01:29:54 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm amazed this thread has gone on this long.

Isaiah Thomas is not getting you a top-5 pick. Stop the madness.

Go post this on any non-Celtics forum and see the reaction.
They'd burn Madison square garden down if Phil Jackson did this.   Thomas is a gimmicky backup point guard.   You have a better chance of seeing the celtics trade 16 and 28 for Nate Robinson.

All the more reason to make the trade.

I'd gladly trade #16 + #28 for Nate Robinson if it meant we could live in a reality where trading IT for #4 was possible.    Totally worth it.    Gonna get a little nutty in that alternate dimension, though... what with the unicorns and dragons living together and whatnot.  Pack a snorkel mask and extra long tongs. 

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #56 on: May 29, 2015, 01:40:03 AM »

Offline knuckleballer

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I'm amazed this thread has gone on this long.

Isaiah Thomas is not getting you a top-5 pick. Stop the madness.

Go post this on any non-Celtics forum and see the reaction.
They'd burn Madison square garden down if Phil Jackson did this.   Thomas is a gimmicky backup point guard.   You have a better chance of seeing the celtics trade 16 and 28 for Nate Robinson.

All the more reason to make the trade.

I'd gladly trade #16 + #28 for Nate Robinson if it meant we could live in a reality where trading IT for #4 was possible.    Totally worth it.    Gonna get a little nutty in that alternate dimension, though... what with the unicorns and dragons living together and whatnot.  Pack a snorkel mask and extra long tongs.

My comment was directed towards burning down Madison Square Garden. 

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #57 on: May 29, 2015, 03:35:36 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm amazed this thread has gone on this long.

Isaiah Thomas is not getting you a top-5 pick. Stop the madness.

Go post this on any non-Celtics forum and see the reaction.
They'd burn Madison square garden down if Phil Jackson did this.   Thomas is a gimmicky backup point guard.   You have a better chance of seeing the celtics trade 16 and 28 for Nate Robinson.

All the more reason to make the trade.

I'd gladly trade #16 + #28 for Nate Robinson if it meant we could live in a reality where trading IT for #4 was possible.    Totally worth it.    Gonna get a little nutty in that alternate dimension, though... what with the unicorns and dragons living together and whatnot.  Pack a snorkel mask and extra long tongs.

My comment was directed towards burning down Madison Square Garden.
But seriously... they'd have to dispatch riot control if that trade went down... just as a precaution.

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #58 on: May 29, 2015, 01:33:46 PM »

Offline oldtype

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Well, it is the Knicks. That makes it not impossible.


Great words from a great man

Re: Isaiah Thomas for the Knicks' pick?
« Reply #59 on: May 29, 2015, 01:44:35 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Well, it is the Knicks. That makes it not impossible.

This is the underrated factor here - it can be an obviously stupid trade while still being plausible for the Knicks to go for it.  If anyone had suggested the Bargnani trade before it happened it'd be considered crazy too.

I do think it's pretty likely the Knicks trade the #4 - they want to put a good roster around Carmelo ASAP - but I have to imagine they can do better than IT for it.