Author Topic: Getting the 4th Pick  (Read 12213 times)

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Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #45 on: May 20, 2015, 07:16:41 AM »

Offline Irish Stew

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You guys are crazy if you think anything we have is enough for the Knicks. I would give up Sully, Bradley, and KO, Nets pick, Clippers, and our pick for the 4th.

In the top 7, there is a lot of talent remaining. This draft class is loaded. Winslow, Johnson, Hezonja, Mundiay, Russell, etc...

The problem? The Knicks are going to want actual Allstars/Superstars in return. Nothing we can offer to help them most likely win now.
  This is absolutely correct. The Knicks are not taking 5 pennies for a nickel.

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #46 on: May 20, 2015, 10:39:46 AM »

Online mef730

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Woj tweeted: At No. 4, expect that the Knicks draft pick will be very available in trade talks.


So what will it take to get that pick?

Bos 2015, LAC 2015, Bradley, KO, and 2016 BRK is that enough? Too much?

For the Celtics, that would be offering too much.
For the Knicks, it would not be enough.

The bid-ask spread is very wide here.

Mike

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #47 on: May 20, 2015, 10:53:24 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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You guys are crazy if you think anything we have is enough for the Knicks. I would give up Sully, Bradley, and KO, Nets pick, Clippers, and our pick for the 4th.

In the top 7, there is a lot of talent remaining. This draft class is loaded. Winslow, Johnson, Hezonja, Mundiay, Russell, etc...

The problem? The Knicks are going to want actual Allstars/Superstars in return. Nothing we can offer to help them most likely win now.
  This is absolutely correct. The Knicks are not taking 5 pennies for a nickel.

Knicks cant just pick mudiay or winslow either imo

They need to fill in their roster. Imo it was top 3 picks or trade the pick for multiple picks/assets

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #48 on: May 20, 2015, 11:47:05 AM »

Offline Bosstown

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Knicks got screwed. They're going to get significantly low balled for the 4th pick and they're not getting a super star. if they got 3...then they might of been able to get maybe LaMarcus....but right now they're in a bad situation. I think it's time they just pony up and trade Melo.

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #49 on: May 20, 2015, 12:55:17 PM »

Offline Geo123

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You guys are crazy if you think anything we have is enough for the Knicks. I would give up Sully, Bradley, and KO, Nets pick, Clippers, and our pick for the 4th.

In the top 7, there is a lot of talent remaining. This draft class is loaded. Winslow, Johnson, Hezonja, Mundiay, Russell, etc...

The problem? The Knicks are going to want actual Allstars/Superstars in return. Nothing we can offer to help them most likely win now.
  This is absolutely correct. The Knicks are not taking 5 pennies for a nickel.

Knicks cant just pick mudiay or winslow either imo

They need to fill in their roster. Imo it was top 3 picks or trade the pick for multiple picks/assets

They don't want role players and aren't looking to fill the roster.  Trading them a bunch of slightly above average players and low firsts rounders won't get it done.  You're just throwing quantity at them.  As someone else said they want a star for the # 4 pick.  They will sign a big (Monroe maybe) plus Melo and plus whatever they do with the # 4 pick.  Melo's time is now so they want to win now.  That's a good start.  Also, I really don't see the Knicks making a major trade with us...

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #50 on: May 20, 2015, 01:58:15 PM »

Offline td450

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The last 10 4th picks are:

2014 Aaron Gordon
2013 Cody Zeller
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul

These results indicate a 20% chance at a superstar. From there, you have Conley, who is outstanding. Gordon has potential and Evans puts up decent numbers, but you could easily argue that the rest of this list isn't significantly better than either Bradley or Sullinger.

This is an excellent draft, and I believe a major star could be had at the fourth slot. But New York has less leverage than most of the posters here are claiming.

As others have noted, New York can't keep this pick. Its hard to see how they can afford to wait on a very talented 19 year old, like Winslow, Mudiay or Russell. They have real talent, but it is naive to assume they will be all-stars before they turn 23, and by then Melo will be lucky to still be a starter, much less a superstar.

So it will come down to how many teams go after this pick and what they are willing to bid for it. I doubt anyone will give them an all-star for it.

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #51 on: May 20, 2015, 02:06:57 PM »

Offline BigAlTheFuture

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The last 10 4th picks are:

2014 Aaron Gordon
2013 Cody Zeller
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul

These results indicate a 20% chance at a superstar. From there, you have Conley, who is outstanding. Gordon has potential and Evans puts up decent numbers, but you could easily argue that the rest of this list isn't significantly better than either Bradley or Sullinger.

This is an excellent draft, and I believe a major star could be had at the fourth slot. But New York has less leverage than most of the posters here are claiming.

As others have noted, New York can't keep this pick. Its hard to see how they can afford to wait on a very talented 19 year old, like Winslow, Mudiay or Russell. They have real talent, but it is naive to assume they will be all-stars before they turn 23, and by then Melo will be lucky to still be a starter, much less a superstar.

So it will come down to how many teams go after this pick and what they are willing to bid for it. I doubt anyone will give them an all-star for it.

D'Angelo Russell has a very strong chance at becoming an all-star by his 2nd or 3rd year. His skill-set is impressive. The only knock on him is his athleticism. He'll probably be gone by the 3rd pick though.
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Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #52 on: May 20, 2015, 02:13:15 PM »

Offline TA9

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It seems like the Knicks could trade their pick if the right offer is made;
Quote
Nets Daily: Listening to Woj on @JoeandEvan - really down on Knicks. Best hope is find the one guy among Porzingis, Winslow, Mudiay who'll be a star.

Quote
Nets Daily: Doesn't like Mudiay, sees red flags on maturity. Says Knicks have 4th pick in 3 player draft. Big setback.
Could someone elaborate on the red flag thing? If I'm not wrong, I read a piece about Mudiay a month ago where they praised his maturity and the fact that they couldn't put one bad finger on his stay in China as he behaved really well there.
Interesting if Knicks know something that could indicate otherwise ???
Jack of all trades, master of none.

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #53 on: May 20, 2015, 02:15:45 PM »

Offline konkmv

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I value the nets picks higher than others... would not trade them... why trade 3 picks for one? Why lose 3 chances to get a good player to get one... greg oden salutes you....

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #54 on: May 20, 2015, 03:05:13 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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It seems like the Knicks could trade their pick if the right offer is made;
Quote
Nets Daily: Listening to Woj on @JoeandEvan - really down on Knicks. Best hope is find the one guy among Porzingis, Winslow, Mudiay who'll be a star.

Quote
Nets Daily: Doesn't like Mudiay, sees red flags on maturity. Says Knicks have 4th pick in 3 player draft. Big setback.
Could someone elaborate on the red flag thing? If I'm not wrong, I read a piece about Mudiay a month ago where they praised his maturity and the fact that they couldn't put one bad finger on his stay in China as he behaved really well there.
Interesting if Knicks know something that could indicate otherwise ???

I don't buy it. "Red flags" get tossed around for every young man who refuses the yoke of the NCAA. Lazy reporter with nothing to say throws out convenient trope.

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #55 on: May 20, 2015, 03:17:39 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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The last 10 4th picks are:

2014 Aaron Gordon
2013 Cody Zeller
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul

These results indicate a 20% chance at a superstar. From there, you have Conley, who is outstanding. Gordon has potential and Evans puts up decent numbers, but you could easily argue that the rest of this list isn't significantly better than either Bradley or Sullinger.

This is a pretty flawed argument, statistically speaking. I think the thesis (that the Knicks cannot afford to wait for a talent to develop) might be on point, but the whole idea that you can take the last 10 #4 overall picks and draw some kind of conclusion with any merit regarding your chances with the 4th overall pick isn't very feasible.


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Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #56 on: May 20, 2015, 04:09:42 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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The last 10 4th picks are:

2014 Aaron Gordon
2013 Cody Zeller
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul

These results indicate a 20% chance at a superstar. From there, you have Conley, who is outstanding. Gordon has potential and Evans puts up decent numbers, but you could easily argue that the rest of this list isn't significantly better than either Bradley or Sullinger.

This is an excellent draft, and I believe a major star could be had at the fourth slot. But New York has less leverage than most of the posters here are claiming.

As others have noted, New York can't keep this pick. Its hard to see how they can afford to wait on a very talented 19 year old, like Winslow, Mudiay or Russell. They have real talent, but it is naive to assume they will be all-stars before they turn 23, and by then Melo will be lucky to still be a starter, much less a superstar.

So it will come down to how many teams go after this pick and what they are willing to bid for it. I doubt anyone will give them an all-star for it.

I agree with your post. Knicks killed themselves trading picks left and right.  Their future looks grey.  Like i stated Mudiay is not a whole lot better prospect than someone like Payne who can be had later. 

Celtics might make a pitch to the knicks and knicks might take the offer if AB and Sully plus 2 1sts are offered.  In the end WCS might not be worth all of these assets. 

Sully , 16, 28 or 33 and next years 1st (celts or clips) though im ok to trade for wcs or winslow

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #57 on: May 20, 2015, 04:34:07 PM »

Offline td450

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The last 10 4th picks are:

2014 Aaron Gordon
2013 Cody Zeller
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul

These results indicate a 20% chance at a superstar. From there, you have Conley, who is outstanding. Gordon has potential and Evans puts up decent numbers, but you could easily argue that the rest of this list isn't significantly better than either Bradley or Sullinger.

This is a pretty flawed argument, statistically speaking. I think the thesis (that the Knicks cannot afford to wait for a talent to develop) might be on point, but the whole idea that you can take the last 10 #4 overall picks and draw some kind of conclusion with any merit regarding your chances with the 4th overall pick isn't very feasible.

This is a sports blog, so this was meant as a rough illustration more than a statistical analysis. Fortunately, Dustin Chapman published a wider analysis on CelticsBlog- Breaking down the last 20 years of the NBA Draft - Part 1 just after my post. The conclusion should be roughly the same. You can get a star with a 2-6 choice, but the odds are higher that you won't get someone any better than Bradley or Sullinger.

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #58 on: May 20, 2015, 04:53:44 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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It seems like the Knicks could trade their pick if the right offer is made;
Quote
Nets Daily: Listening to Woj on @JoeandEvan - really down on Knicks. Best hope is find the one guy among Porzingis, Winslow, Mudiay who'll be a star.

Quote
Nets Daily: Doesn't like Mudiay, sees red flags on maturity. Says Knicks have 4th pick in 3 player draft. Big setback.
Could someone elaborate on the red flag thing? If I'm not wrong, I read a piece about Mudiay a month ago where they praised his maturity and the fact that they couldn't put one bad finger on his stay in China as he behaved really well there.
Interesting if Knicks know something that could indicate otherwise ???

I don't buy it. "Red flags" get tossed around for every young man who refuses the yoke of the NCAA. Lazy reporter with nothing to say throws out convenient trope.

Woj actually did say something to support the comment. He said that he's been out of shape recently and that he changed agents. He didn't expand as to why the latter was an issue though.

Re: Getting the 4th Pick
« Reply #59 on: May 20, 2015, 05:51:02 PM »

Offline kidradical

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I just asked an avid Knick fan about this trade, two first rounders, Bradley and Olynyk, and they jumped. They said, "sign me up. I would do that trade in an instant."  Knick fans want lots of picks and players, not one player they can get that is not Okafor or Towns. 

I think it would be a risk for C's to do it, but I think I might pull the trigger on it.