We aren't far from contending as long as you assume bringing in three all-stars is an easy thing to accomplish.
As-is, this is probably a 35-45 win roster. Without major additions, it would be a 50/50 shot of making the playoffs next year.
Throw all the pessimism you want at this thread, you can't deny that a .500 team is not far off.
A .500 team is not far off from the bottom, either.
In fact, we're closer to the bottom (24 more wins) than we are to the top (27 less wins).
That's not to say we don't have a chance. But as much as our "position" is being glorified, I could easily argue that (currently worse) teams like Philly, New York and the Lakers are closer to contending.
I was asked to make a guest post for a blog back in March that covered my reasoning on that very topic: http://www.celticslife.com/2015/03/closer-to-contending-knicks-lakers.html
I just picked those teams, because they are all "prestige" teams that are currently in the dumps. Boston ended up making the playoffs, but I think my points are still valid. We have a lot of positive things going for us (mainly our coach, management and organization are a draw) and we have a solid chance at adding some talent here, but you could make a case that most of the 15 lotto teams this year have good things going for them as well. Like, would you rather be in Boston's position... or Minnesota? I definitely pick Minnesota (Wiggins, #1 projected pick and lots of young assets). Boston made the playoffs and Oklahoma didn't... who would you rather be? We finished two games above the Pacers... anyone really think we're further along than them? Etc.
Every year you make the case for lotto teams having good things going for them, then the reality of the situation comes to bear, lack of on court success , you know wins and losses, not hype and hope.
Look at Sacramento 9 years and counting, Minnesota 11 years and counting, the list goes on , how long do you want to erode the fan base, under this notion of hope for the future before they catch on to somebody is sure getting paid an truck load of cash for stinking up the place, but wait we can let the said rookie stat pad to hype some meaningless award, or stat pad to try and get into a meaningless all star game.
Sad part about it teams have been doing it for decades and playing farm league for the actual teams that put forth an effort to actually win titles.
How many years do you want to live on this false notion?
Oh let's pay a GM 12 mil a season to just tear down almost the complete roster and try and sign free agents in their prime to partner up with Melo ha ha good idea Knicks.
NBA where the accountability for actual on court performance is at an all time low.
Let's rollout the dancers and have a gimmick giveaway to sell to the fans when the hope and hype subsides, lol, as long as everybody gets paid who cares right.
Good to have owners that have a commitment to actual winning and hire GM's that can actually turn around franchises, not just this false hype and hope line that young potential more often than not leads to.
How did the Twolves trade of Young to the Nets for KG help out their on court performance, sold a few more tickets to home games , how about actually winning some games.Diverted attention from yet another woeful season for a few weeks , yippee KG is back.
You just illustrated the point well... it's exceptionally hard to move from irrelevance to contending. By saying I think Philly, New York and the Lakers are "closer" to contending, I'm not saying they will get there. Boston might not get there either. I'm just saying that I like the cards in their hand more. That doesn't guarantee them success. Gotta see how it plays out. There's a shot we'll get lucky in spite of having a weaker hand.
My central point is that all those teams are arguably closer to landing a star (or already have one). Because Boston is further away from landing a star, I see them as further away from contending. Yet, at the moment... we're a better team. So what? In 2012, Philly upset the #1 seed Bulls and took the Ray/Pierce/KG/Rondo Celtics to 7 games... next year they were back in the lotto.
I don't really get using Philadelphia as an example at all, in fact using them seems to be making the opposite of the point you are trying to make. They traded away their best player, Andre Igodula who was probably the definition of a star at that point in his career coming off a second team all defensive and all star season and traded him for a guy that wouldn't play a game for them. They also lost a still very solid Elton brand who was one of their better big defenders and still putting up 11 and 6 that year. It also looks like they traded away Vucevic after that season. If they had stayed the course and kept Vucevic, Brand and Iggy they very welll could have been a championship contender at some point in the next few seasons with a few smart mid level signings.
Edit: I just realized they lost Lou Williams after that seasons too. Man how interesting would it have been to see that team together.
I think it's grasping to call Iggy a 'star' of franchise proportions.
He had a great few years and got up near the 20 ppg range on decent shooting, but even his one All Star appearance was as a replacement wasn't it?
Iggy's career certainly has trailed off since he was traded from Philly, but at the time he was coming off back to back second team all-defense seasons and the first of what seemed like probably a couple of all star appearances at the age of 28. The fact that that was his best season is a bit befuddling.
However, my larger point was that if that team was left to stay together they really could have been very good. Vucevic developed into a near all-star level center, louis williams turned into a very good scorer and brand was solid for another year or two. It would have been really interesting to see what that group could have done if they had not blown it up for bynum. Do I think they win the championship? No, but they would have been in a lot better position to make moves to put themselves in championship consideration.
Holiday
Turner
Iggy
Vucevic
Williams
with some good mid-level signings (maybe a ray allen type) that team gets in the mix all of a sudden. Or they could have traded Turner for someone that was more established at the time of the draft.