Early FA rumors (Cs and non Cs)

[Celts Fan 508]

I've been all over the "throw the franchise" at Deandre Jordan and build around him thought, but after listening to Sirius XM the other day, the host said he's not the guy to build around but to add to as a third.  Interesting hearing that and made me rethink.  I guess now I'd go after Cousins or Noel via trade.

I would read too much into what some hack says on Sirius XM. Jordan is exactly the type of guy you build a team around (7 foot defensive center, free throw shooting and all). Also a guy like Noel is not even in Jordan's league.

Is DeAndre Jordan really that much better than Robin Lopez?  Especially when you factor in the contract both will get this summer, is Jordan worth the extra money he will get over Lopez?

I think so. Not that I would mind Robin Lopez. But Lopez is decent while Jordan is a superstar caliber center because of his athleticism, defense and shot blocking.

Lopez provides similar skills at a lower cost.  It would allow the Celtics to use their max to fill another need while getting similar production to what they would get from their max if they used it on Jordan.

It would be similar except that DJ actually plays while Brook gives half a season at best. I'd take both but I'm going with DJ b/c of defense, rb, health.

The  Lopez mentioned here is meant to be Robin Lopez (he of slightly less injury woes). A good defender and not a huge hole on offense. Rebounding numbers dont look great.

But in 2014 when healthy all year he had 11 points 9 boards and 1.7 blocks a game.

I think hes a nice complementary defensive big if we are able to get a stud or two in FA/trade

In 31.7 minutes per game.  Is Jordan going to put up numbers so much better then that to make him worth at least 5 million dollars per year? 

[byennie]

I like Lopez, but I do think there's a big gap. Jordan's rebounding rate is almost TWICE as high, and despite his bad free throw shooting he's the more efficient scorer with his insane 71% from the field.

24.5% rebound rate versus 12.9%
FG: 71% vs 53%
TS: 64% vs 57% (includes free throws)

I'd take Lopez on the cheap, sure, but that won't happen.

[SparzWizard]

Not sure if Lakers getting Thibs a good thing or bad thing...

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/20/report-lakers-will-pursue-tom-thibodeau/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

Good thing? He can run his players to the floor and Kobe might be done in Game 2 of preseason.

Bad thing? He is a defensive head coach and has taken the Bulls to the playoffs consecutive times since his tenured there. He also has some blueprint ties of the Boston Celtics...well, our entire roster is new at this point, and CBS system is different than Doc's these days.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I've been all over the "throw the franchise" at Deandre Jordan and build around him thought, but after listening to Sirius XM the other day, the host said he's not the guy to build around but to add to as a third.  Interesting hearing that and made me rethink.  I guess now I'd go after Cousins or Noel via trade.

I would read too much into what some hack says on Sirius XM. Jordan is exactly the type of guy you build a team around (7 foot defensive center, free throw shooting and all). Also a guy like Noel is not even in Jordan's league.

Is DeAndre Jordan really that much better than Robin Lopez?  Especially when you factor in the contract both will get this summer, is Jordan worth the extra money he will get over Lopez?

I think so. Not that I would mind Robin Lopez. But Lopez is decent while Jordan is a superstar caliber center because of his athleticism, defense and shot blocking.

Lopez provides similar skills at a lower cost.  It would allow the Celtics to use their max to fill another need while getting similar production to what they would get from their max if they used it on Jordan.

It would be similar except that DJ actually plays while Brook gives half a season at best. I'd take both but I'm going with DJ b/c of defense, rb, health.

The  Lopez mentioned here is meant to be Robin Lopez (he of slightly less injury woes). A good defender and not a huge hole on offense. Rebounding numbers dont look great.

But in 2014 when healthy all year he had 11 points 9 boards and 1.7 blocks a game.

I think hes a nice complementary defensive big if we are able to get a stud or two in FA/trade

In 31.7 minutes per game.  Is Jordan going to put up numbers so much better then that to make him worth at least 5 million dollars per year?

Oh my bad, totally overlooked. I would still take DJ first, even at the higher rate. I like Robin though. I thought Brook because of many other threads.

[Rondo9]

Not sure if Lakers getting Thibs a good thing or bad thing...

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/20/report-lakers-will-pursue-tom-thibodeau/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

Good thing? He can run his players to the floor and Kobe might be done in Game 2 of preseason.

Bad thing? He is a defensive head coach and has taken the Bulls to the playoffs consecutive times since his tenured there. He also has some blueprint ties of the Boston Celtics...well, our entire roster is new at this point, and CBS system is different than Doc's these days.

Kobe will be in a wheelchair by the time he retires.

[celts10]

Not sure if Lakers getting Thibs a good thing or bad thing...

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/20/report-lakers-will-pursue-tom-thibodeau/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

Maybe Thibs will be able to convince Rondo to play some defense.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I forgot to mention one reason I like DJ, when he has a good play on either end, he gets extra hyped. I can just imagine what that will do for guys like AB and Smart, I can see them getting pumped and make them lock down even more. That energy is something we could use, we have a bunch of calm demeanor type of guys, I like to see someone like KG... makes you feel yourself! We need someone with a little stank. Watch teams like GSW, Cavs, Hous and Clips usually play better when one of their players puff out their chest and talks them up. We do it when we hit a game winner but I don't see us doing it other than that. I saw AB and Smart chest bump during the Mavs game near comeback win early season but they didn't do it any other time I can remember. Butler is a guy like that too. Someone who will walk around like I'm the MAN, WE GOT THIS!

PP too but I would like someone who can grow with this team.

[SparzWizard]

Since the Lakers will draft either Karl Towns or Jahlil Okafor, that means Jordan Hill's run with the Lakers might come to an end!

Should the Celtics go after this Jordan instead? 

[tarheelsxxiii]

Why is appreciating the qualitative attributes that Crowder provides an "emotional attachment?" That's so absurd to me. The only conclusion I can come to is that people who are unable to identify with the feel of the game, and separate themselves from flawed analytics, fail to make accurate assessments of player value. He was our heartbeat down the stretch. You want to dump him.. why? If he can be had for a reasonable contract, you keep him. Championships are not won without guys like him. His value exceeds that of far more talented players because of it.

[crimson_stallion]

I've been all over the "throw the franchise" at Deandre Jordan and build around him thought, but after listening to Sirius XM the other day, the host said he's not the guy to build around but to add to as a third.  Interesting hearing that and made me rethink.  I guess now I'd go after Cousins or Noel via trade.

I would read too much into what some hack says on Sirius XM. Jordan is exactly the type of guy you build a team around (7 foot defensive center, free throw shooting and all). Also a guy like Noel is not even in Jordan's league.

DeAndre Jordan is absolutely NOT the type of player you build a team around...

Firstly, Jordan was the third best player on a team that didn't get past the second round.  Sure it was a close series, but again...third best player.

Secondly, Jordan has almost no offensive game at all.  74% of his shots came from inside 3 feet, 69% of his field goal attempts were assisted, and his free throw rate this year was 88% - that means for every 100 field goals he takes, he shoots 88 free throws.

This tells me:
a) 70% of his offense comes off assists - he NEEDS an elite pass-first PG in order to not be an offensive liability.

b) He has no jump shot and cannot stretch the floor - so you're limited what players you can put around him.  You need at least 3 (preferably four) dangerous shooters to keep the floor even remotely spread and to keep the defense honest.

b) He has a free throw rate of 88%.  That's based on attempts though, so (since he's a 39% shooter) it's actually 25% of his points that came from free throws.  Teams hack him because he will miss 60% of the time - this makes it hard to keep him on the court at the end of close games, because teams can just hack him and force him to brick free throw.

c) He has horrible BBIQ, and his game is completely dependent on his athleticism.   The instant he loses his quickness or leaping ability, his career is essentially over.

d) His lack of offense means you pretty much NEED one or two elite offensive players to make up for what he isn't giving you.

As for Noel having nothing on Jordan defensively, that's not really true. 

Deandre Jordan's Defensive Real-Plus-Minus for this season was +2.28 which ranks him 41st among all NBA players.   Nerlens Noel had a Defensive RPM of +336 which ranks him 18th in the league. 

Noel is also only 21 years old, and all statistics indicate that he is a FAR superior player right now than DeAndre Jordan was at the age of 21.

It would not be unreasonable to say that Noel is on par with (or even better than) DJ already defensively based on advanced stats...and at least Noel can make free throws at a half respectable rate.

DeAndre Jordan is basically a super role player.  He is crazy good as a shot-blocker and rebounder, but outside of those two areas he's really extremely limited. 

Unfortunately he's so unbelievably good at those two things, that it's inevitable some team will offer him a ridiculous contract...and after that contract you'll likely see his numbers drop off...because where he is right now is the best possible place for him.  On a Clippers team that contains both Chris Paul (one of the best pass-first Point Guards in history) and Blake Griffin (a 20+ PPG scorer).  I don't know if there is a single team in the league that fits him better then where he already is - that's why his stats this year looked so very impressive. 

Hell we couldn't even combine Jordan with our own elite passer (Rondo) because you'd have zero court spacing.

Not only is Noel much cheaper contract wise, and just as effective defensively, but he also probably has much higher upside because at only 21 years old he's already a good player.  If you want a big man specifically for rim protection, you'd be much better of acquiring Noel and then using the left over $7m-$8m to sign add some extra talent.

[crimson_stallion]

Jordan's rebounding rate is almost TWICE as high, and despite his bad free throw shooting he's the more efficient scorer with his insane 71% from the field.

That's assuming you have an elite 9 - 10 APG point guard like Rondo or Chris Paul who can get DJ perfect lobs every time...because he needs to be spoon fed the ball in the perfect spot for him to have ANY impact on offense whatsoever.  He has zero ability to create his own offense.

Why is appreciating the qualitative attributes that Crowder provides an "emotional attachment?" That's so absurd to me. The only conclusion I can come to is that people who are unable to identify with the feel of the game, and separate themselves from flawed analytics, fail to make accurate assessments of player value. He was our heartbeat down the stretch. You want to dump him.. why? If he can be had for a reasonable contract, you keep him. Championships are not won without guys like him. His value exceeds that of far more talented players because of it.

Nobody said we should dump Crowder - they just said that that we shouldn't go blindly matching any offer that another team makes.  Crowder has value, but that value has a price.  He's worth keeping for $4m or $5m a year, if somebody offered much more then that I would just let him go.

Signing Crowder to an $8m contract would be a bad long term move - that's putting a lot of hope on him to develop into more than a role player / bench player and that might not happen.   

It's actually not that hard to find average sized Small Forwards who have limited skill but who compensate for that by playing with a lot of hustle and passion - the Marquis Daniels / Mikael Pietrus type guys.  Lots of those guys around.  Also when it comes to inspiring the team with effort and toughnes, they will still get that inspiration from Smart.

As for his value exceeding far more talented players - I respectfully disagree.  Basketball is about outscoring your opponent.  Putting points on the board, and stopping them from scoring.  If a guy doesn't put significant points on the board, or stop a significant number of the opponents points, then he's not helping you win - end of the day.  Sure Crowder might make one key hustle play (putback on offense, big defensive stop, save a possession, etc) at the end of a tied game, and that play may lead to you winning the game.  But if you had a guy like Greg Monroe or DeAndre Jordan in place of Crowder your team might finish the game up 15 points, and that one little hustle play that 'would' have happened, suddenly becomes irrelevant. 

Of course it's more satisfying when you have guys like Crowder on your team - more emotionally gratifying.  It's more enjoyable watching a team of underdogs beat a monster because one or two guys came out with a "little engine that could" attitude and won with a couple of key hustle plays.  But basketball is a business - teams want to dominate, not win close games.  Of course Danny Ainge would rather have his team win by 20 then scrape by on a game winner - being dominant brings fans to your doors, sells merchandise, raises your profile as a GM / coach / owner. 

[tarheelsxxiii]

I've been all over the "throw the franchise" at Deandre Jordan and build around him thought, but after listening to Sirius XM the other day, the host said he's not the guy to build around but to add to as a third.  Interesting hearing that and made me rethink.  I guess now I'd go after Cousins or Noel via trade.

I would read too much into what some hack says on Sirius XM. Jordan is exactly the type of guy you build a team around (7 foot defensive center, free throw shooting and all). Also a guy like Noel is not even in Jordan's league.

DeAndre Jordan is absolutely NOT the type of player you build a team around...

Firstly, Jordan was the third best player on a team that didn't get past the second round.  Sure it was a close series, but again...third best player.

Secondly, Jordan has almost no offensive game at all.  74% of his shots came from inside 3 feet, 69% of his field goal attempts were assisted, and his free throw rate this year was 88% - that means for every 100 field goals he takes, he shoots 88 free throws.

This tells me:
a) 70% of his offense comes off assists - he NEEDS an elite pass-first PG in order to not be an offensive liability.

b) He has no jump shot and cannot stretch the floor - so you're limited what players you can put around him.  You need at least 3 (preferably four) dangerous shooters to keep the floor even remotely spread and to keep the defense honest.

b) He has a free throw rate of 88%.  That's based on attempts though, so (since he's a 39% shooter) it's actually 25% of his points that came from free throws.  Teams hack him because he will miss 60% of the time - this makes it hard to keep him on the court at the end of close games, because teams can just hack him and force him to brick free throw.

c) He has horrible BBIQ, and his game is completely dependent on his athleticism.   The instant he loses his quickness or leaping ability, his career is essentially over.

d) His lack of offense means you pretty much NEED one or two elite offensive players to make up for what he isn't giving you.

As for Noel having nothing on Jordan defensively, that's not really true. 

Deandre Jordan's Defensive Real-Plus-Minus for this season was +2.28 which ranks him 41st among all NBA players.   Nerlens Noel had a Defensive RPM of +336 which ranks him 18th in the league. 

Noel is also only 21 years old, and all statistics indicate that he is a FAR superior player right now than DeAndre Jordan was at the age of 21.

It would not be unreasonable to say that Noel is on par with (or even better than) DJ already defensively based on advanced stats...and at least Noel can make free throws at a half respectable rate.

DeAndre Jordan is basically a super role player.  He is crazy good as a shot-blocker and rebounder, but outside of those two areas he's really extremely limited. 

Unfortunately he's so unbelievably good at those two things, that it's inevitable some team will offer him a ridiculous contract...and after that contract you'll likely see his numbers drop off...because where he is right now is the best possible place for him.  On a Clippers team that contains both Chris Paul (one of the best pass-first Point Guards in history) and Blake Griffin (a 20+ PPG scorer).  I don't know if there is a single team in the league that fits him better then where he already is - that's why his stats this year looked so very impressive. 

Hell we couldn't even combine Jordan with our own elite passer (Rondo) because you'd have zero court spacing.

Not only is Noel much cheaper contract wise, and just as effective defensively, but he also probably has much higher upside because at only 21 years old he's already a good player.  If you want a big man specifically for rim protection, you'd be much better of acquiring Noel and then using the left over $7m-$8m to sign add some extra talent.

Do you think Noel is available? I have no clue, but agree with your points. Would be interested to learn more.

[crimson_stallion]

Do you think Noel is available? I have no clue, but agree with your points. Would be interested to learn more.

I guess that's the million dollar question. 

I'd say it likely depends on how well Embiid is coming along, and whether they feel those two guys can start along side each other, or are redundant.

It was only last year that MCW finished his rookie season by putting up some nice numbers, winning ROTY and, and looking like he was going to be the future face of the 76ers franchise.  Then some half a season later they practically gave him away to Milwaukee (traded him for a Lakers pick they won't even get).

Now Noel has finished one season, put up some decent numbers, come out looking like a solid piece...but he clearly doesn't have the skills to play PF, and they have another (seemingly better and more talented) center in Embiid ready to step up and take his place. 

i'm thinking they will evaluate Embiid once he has recovered from his injury, work him out, and try to get a feel for how good he will early on.  If they think he'll be better than Noel right off the bat, then I think there is a decent chance they look to trade Noel for either another pick (they seem to like those) or for a young talent at a position of need. 

it's hard to predict what the Sixers will do really, because their management seems to work in such an irrational way.

Even if Embiid comes out, amazes everyone, and takes all the spotlight...it's in no way certain that the 76ers will look to trade Noel...but it's definitely not out of the question either.  Unless Noel can develop some form of a jumpshot, I don't see him and Embiid as compatible players.

[CFAN38]

Do you think Noel is available? I have no clue, but agree with your points. Would be interested to learn more.

He could ultimately be made available but no way they Cs have anything to offer for him this off-season. I expect the 76ers will draft Russell and then role with a starting five of Russell, Wroten, Saric, Noel and Embiid. This unit staying together will hinge on players improving as shooters and spacing the court. If they do not show promise then Noel or Embiid will likely have to be moved for a stretch 4.

Then again this being the 76ers I wouldn't be shocked to see them throw everyone off and make a crazy trade this off-season with another team in the top 5. Maybe a situation where they draft Prozngis #3 then move Embiid in order to still draft Russell or Mudiay.

Conspiracy theory, did the 76ers bring Embiid to player combine as a way to float him around the other GMs to remind them of how much they liked him last year at this time? 

[hwangjini_1]

I've been all over the "throw the franchise" at Deandre Jordan and build around him thought, but after listening to Sirius XM the other day, the host said he's not the guy to build around but to add to as a third.  Interesting hearing that and made me rethink.  I guess now I'd go after Cousins or Noel via trade.

I would read too much into what some hack says on Sirius XM. Jordan is exactly the type of guy you build a team around (7 foot defensive center, free throw shooting and all). Also a guy like Noel is not even in Jordan's league.

DeAndre Jordan is absolutely NOT the type of player you build a team around...

Firstly, Jordan was the third best player on a team that didn't get past the second round.  Sure it was a close series, but again...third best player.

Secondly, Jordan has almost no offensive game at all.  74% of his shots came from inside 3 feet, 69% of his field goal attempts were assisted, and his free throw rate this year was 88% - that means for every 100 field goals he takes, he shoots 88 free throws.

This tells me:
a) 70% of his offense comes off assists - he NEEDS an elite pass-first PG in order to not be an offensive liability.

b) He has no jump shot and cannot stretch the floor - so you're limited what players you can put around him.  You need at least 3 (preferably four) dangerous shooters to keep the floor even remotely spread and to keep the defense honest.

b) He has a free throw rate of 88%.  That's based on attempts though, so (since he's a 39% shooter) it's actually 25% of his points that came from free throws.  Teams hack him because he will miss 60% of the time - this makes it hard to keep him on the court at the end of close games, because teams can just hack him and force him to brick free throw.

c) He has horrible BBIQ, and his game is completely dependent on his athleticism.   The instant he loses his quickness or leaping ability, his career is essentially over.

d) His lack of offense means you pretty much NEED one or two elite offensive players to make up for what he isn't giving you.

As for Noel having nothing on Jordan defensively, that's not really true. 

Deandre Jordan's Defensive Real-Plus-Minus for this season was +2.28 which ranks him 41st among all NBA players.   Nerlens Noel had a Defensive RPM of +336 which ranks him 18th in the league. 

Noel is also only 21 years old, and all statistics indicate that he is a FAR superior player right now than DeAndre Jordan was at the age of 21.

It would not be unreasonable to say that Noel is on par with (or even better than) DJ already defensively based on advanced stats...and at least Noel can make free throws at a half respectable rate.

DeAndre Jordan is basically a super role player.  He is crazy good as a shot-blocker and rebounder, but outside of those two areas he's really extremely limited. 

Unfortunately he's so unbelievably good at those two things, that it's inevitable some team will offer him a ridiculous contract...and after that contract you'll likely see his numbers drop off...because where he is right now is the best possible place for him.  On a Clippers team that contains both Chris Paul (one of the best pass-first Point Guards in history) and Blake Griffin (a 20+ PPG scorer).  I don't know if there is a single team in the league that fits him better then where he already is - that's why his stats this year looked so very impressive. 

Hell we couldn't even combine Jordan with our own elite passer (Rondo) because you'd have zero court spacing.

Not only is Noel much cheaper contract wise, and just as effective defensively, but he also probably has much higher upside because at only 21 years old he's already a good player.  If you want a big man specifically for rim protection, you'd be much better of acquiring Noel and then using the left over $7m-$8m to sign add some extra talent.

well, well, well...a post filled with logic, civilty, oodles and boodles of data that is informative and understandable within a larger argument....are you sure you meant to post this on cb? 

great post CS. i learned a lot and enjoyed reading it.

i also agree with you points. jordan is a great defender, but little else. this was also the problem with sanders of milwaukee i believe. having such a player brings both good (defense) and bad (have to build a team of scorers around him.)

it is not that i am opposed to having such player on the celtics, but is this someone such as this the best possible option?