Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins

[Beat LA]

I certainly don't recall ever making a thread indicating that traditional big men aren't important.  Certainly there is less focus on the post up in today's league.

It's a lot harder to find playing time for big men who have very little range and who can't protect the rim or finish inside at a very high percentage.


A tandem of big men who play in the post can work.  It requires a very high skill level, though, and it must be so potent that it's worth keeping the tandem in there even when the opponent has floor spreading bigs pulling them away from the basket on the other end.

You won't see many lineups today that feature multiple post options that score at a league average level.  Even the Grizzlies, as good as they are, have only managed the 13th best offensive efficiency in the league this season, which is their best mark for the Randolph-Gasol era.

I didn't say that.  I just remember you posting something about how it's more important to have guys who can 'space the floor' in response to my preference of having traditional big guys, although I don't remember the exact thread.  What I did say is that you made a thread after we were swept saying that having size definitely matters in the postseason, so I'm honestly just trying to figure it out - do you want stretch big guys or traditional post players?  It's fine if you changed your mind (because really, who doesn't?), I'm just trying to determine where you stand on this topic, although I knew that it was unlikely that I could point something like that out without making it look like I was picking on you, which was never my intention.  Sorry about that.

Btw, just because it isn't what the cool kids are doing (sarcasm), lol , doesn't mean that post play has to completely vanish from the game.  Look at the Pacers - they were a powerhouse with a more traditional lineup and it certainly worked for them on both ends, so why couldn't a similar approach work somewhere else, like Boston?

[PhoSita]

You want to have guys with legitimate size, and you want to have at least one big who can rebound, finish inside, and defend the paint.

But you also need to have proper floor spacing. 

As Zach Lowe put it in an article I was reading about the Warriors recently, the 4 is perhaps the most important position on the floor with regard to spacing now because whether or not you have a big who can pull opposing big men out of the paint has a huge effect on what your other guys can do.

That's why the Warriors frontcourt is so devastating.  They've got Bogut, who is an elite defender and rebounder and who can finish inside well enough, and then they have Draymond, who can defend any position on the floor inside and out, and who is also an excellent spot up shooter from deep.


As for the post-heavy offense, like I said before, there are teams recently who have had success.  Still, you'll notice that none of those teams has been especially strong offensively.  The Pacers, like the Grizzlies, have been a mediocre offensive team even at their best.

There are some teams that rely a lot on the post-up but that score at a high level.  The Trailblazers are one of them.  LMA is one of the league-leaders in post-ups each year.  But he's also a fantastic shooter.  The Blazers are primarily a spread pick and roll team that goes to LMA on the block in spots.

Similarly, Blake Griffin is a very good post-up scorer, but the Clips don't utilize that as the focal point of their offense.  They are primarily a pick and roll team with some isos added in.

[GetLucky]

I certainly don't recall ever making a thread indicating that traditional big men aren't important.  Certainly there is less focus on the post up in today's league.

It's a lot harder to find playing time for big men who have very little range and who can't protect the rim or finish inside at a very high percentage.


A tandem of big men who play in the post can work.  It requires a very high skill level, though, and it must be so potent that it's worth keeping the tandem in there even when the opponent has floor spreading bigs pulling them away from the basket on the other end.

You won't see many lineups today that feature multiple post options that score at a league average level.  Even the Grizzlies, as good as they are, have only managed the 13th best offensive efficiency in the league this season, which is their best mark for the Randolph-Gasol era.

I didn't say that.  I just remember you posting something about how it's more important to have guys who can 'space the floor' in response to my preference of having traditional big guys, although I don't remember the exact thread.  What I did say is that you made a thread after we were swept saying that having size definitely matters in the postseason, so I'm honestly just trying to figure it out - do you want stretch big guys or traditional post players?  It's fine if you changed your mind (because really, who doesn't?), I'm just trying to determine where you stand on this topic, although I knew that it was unlikely that I could point something like that out without making it look like I was picking on you, which was never my intention.  Sorry about that.

Btw, just because it isn't what the cool kids are doing (sarcasm), lol , doesn't mean that post play has to completely vanish from the game.  Look at the Pacers - they were a powerhouse with a more traditional lineup and it certainly worked for them on both ends, so why couldn't a similar approach work somewhere else, like Boston?

I think an excellent example of what PhoSita is talking about is the Warriors from last year to this year. They went from being very post-up-heavy with Lee and Bogut to more pace-and-space type of team, starting Green.

I think the whole advantage of the pace-and-space offense is its ability to detract attention from any one person. While you can still win traditionally with higher-skilled post players than the other team (like the Grizzlies do), it comes with its own limitations by design (like having trouble guarding stretch fours on defense) and is also much harder to pull off. For example, the Celtics this year often had fantastic floor spacing despite not being very good shooters. Many players (including Marc Gasol himself) brought up the struggle of guarding Kelly Olynyk out to the three-point arc. Kelly Olynyk,  the guy who barely has the respect of his own teammates! (ET's comments after the Cavs game, for example.) So while the traditional two-big set can definitely work, it requires a very skilled team with very specific skillets, whereas the pace-and-space maximizes everyone's abilities while stressing a skill set that is becoming increasingly more common (outside shooting).

[PhoSita]

^ Nailed it.

Maybe this is just a cyclical thing.  But in the league today you can score a lot of points just by parking a big guy on the three point line who gives the opponent the notion that he might be a threat from deep.

Post-ups, on the other hand, have a tendency to bog down ball movement and give the opponent a pass on having to defend the perimeter, unless your bigs are exceptionally skilled and difficult to handle on the block.


Just to jump to the other side for a sec, though, we've seen that in the playoffs, the slow-it-down -and-grind style is easier to keep going, whereas a team like the Celtics can't spread the floor as easily with guys who aren't actually all that good at shooting.  Opponents get wise in the playoffs, and greater physicality is allowed by the refs.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Julius Randle broke his foot in his first NBA game and he has been dealing with foot problems since College. What makes him more enticing than Sullinger and Olynyk?

He was perceived to have star potential before he got to the NBA and has not yet stepped on the court, so the allure remains.

I'm not suggesting this is how assets ought to be viewed, but this is how trade packages tend to be valued.

But Randle DID step into the court..... and got hurt.

OK, yes, you're right.

However, he didn't play long enough to really show how good he is or may be, and the injury he suffered was of a variety that isn't likely to affect his physical ability long term.  I don't think it's the type of injury that is usually considered an indicator of long term injury problems, either.

In effect, Randle will enter next year as a rookie.  One with a much higher pedigree -- whether that's right or wrong -- than Sullinger or Olynyk.

Randall played enough in summer league and pre-season exhibitions to demonstrate he wasn't the second coming. 13.4  PER SL + 4.9 PER preseason, with very poor +/- ratings in both venues. There had been some concern that he was going to slide out of the top 10 in the draft too.  Doesn't mean he won't turn out OK, and be better than the Cs PFs, but he isn't the type of  transcendent player who destroyed the competition early on as LBJ did for example.

Thus, the allure of the unknown is off Randall to some extent (he's no superstar), but the questions as to how his game will translate to the NBA still remain. But for the conditioning/injuries issues, I'd take Sully over Randall without hesitation.

I'm not a big Randle guy, didn't like him coming into the draft because he's an undersized PF who can't play small ball but...

That first sentence dude, seriously?

[vjcsmoke]

You make a good point.  There are teams who can offer more out there.  But just because that's the case doesn't mean that Danny should give up on pursuing Cousins before the game is even afoot. 

Sometimes teams aren't willing to give up as much as we think, even though it is possible to offer more.  The Celtics can at the very least be competitive in offering a package that includes talent now plus draft picks for the future in addition to trade exceptions to save Sacramento some cap space and salary.  If Cousins wants to leave, the Celtics are capable to facilitate his exit and hopefully into a green uniform at the same time.

[Snakehead]

^ Nailed it.

Maybe this is just a cyclical thing.  But in the league today you can score a lot of points just by parking a big guy on the three point line who gives the opponent the notion that he might be a threat from deep.

Post-ups, on the other hand, have a tendency to bog down ball movement and give the opponent a pass on having to defend the perimeter, unless your bigs are exceptionally skilled and difficult to handle on the block.


Just to jump to the other side for a sec, though, we've seen that in the playoffs, the slow-it-down -and-grind style is easier to keep going, whereas a team like the Celtics can't spread the floor as easily with guys who aren't actually all that good at shooting.  Opponents get wise in the playoffs, and greater physicality is allowed by the refs.

The two are not exclusive like that.  I mean the issue with some of these "post up" guys is they can't shoot at all, but Tim Duncan can do both.  So can Cousins.  Who I'm sure many would consider a post up guy.  You could fit him in a system like that though.  I'd pick that one point, but do support the argument.

This is why I think so highly of Kelly Olynyk.  He changes the whole game on offense.  Even yes, Marc Gasol, who is considered an elite defender you see him struggling to always find Olynyk on the three line and he wants to help his teammates but it's really frustrating to be on Olynyk at the line.  Either you stick to him or you try to play your help game and give him up.

I like him at the 5 for this reason and I would also love to keep him to play alongside hopefully a top level big we could land.

...

on the Playoffs, I have always find size matters a lot in the playoffs.  Because the game is physical and people are playing so hard.  It's why I think the last champion Lakers were a well constructed team (even as a Lakers hater and Kobe hater) because they had that size and skill and in the Playoffs it was just so hard to stack up against.  As we saw with the Celtics, we needed every minute our bigs could manage to stack up against it.

Talent matters overall.  When those Lakers teams were at their best they had it though and I think the height was very hard to deal with.  Then Bynum fell off.

And yes, the games aren't as fast so speed matters less.

[PhoSita]

The two are not exclusive like that.  I mean the issue with some of these "post up" guys is they can't shoot at all, but Tim Duncan can do both.  So can Cousins.  Who I'm sure many would consider a post up guy.  You could fit him in a system like that though.  I'd pick that one point, but do support the argument.

The very best big men can score inside and out.  That's what made Dirk Nowitzki one of the most dangerous scorers in the league for many many years.

That said, it's not just about the shooting ability of the big man.  If you're building your offense around post-scoring, that means 25-40 shot attemps per game are going to be post-ups, and the majority of your possessions will revolve around feeding a big man in the post.

Keeping the ball moving and finding the open man in that system is going to be a lot more difficult than, say, the system the Celtics use -- whether or not your big man can reliably hit a mid-range jumper, like Cousins or Duncan.  It requires your big men to be extremely skilled so that they attract a lot of defensive attention on the block or at the high post and then make really good decisions and passes in response to that attention.


A post-up system is effectively the inverse of a spread offense.  In the post-up system, the big men have the greatest "gravity" and create space for shooters on the outside.  The onus is on the big men to pass out to shooters or to cutters.

Spread offense, on the other hand, creates space inside by having 3 or 4 shooters arrayed on the perimeter.  Those shooters individually don't need to have as much "gravity" as the one or two big men in the post-up system, and they really one need to have one elite skill -- shooting.  Then the onus is on the ball-handle(s) to penetrate and either find cutters / roll men or kick it back out to the perimeter.

I think we're seeing a lot more of the latter because it's easier to find players who can thrive in that system.  After all, there are more guards, wings, and undersized big men with skill and speed  in the league than there are immensely strong and skilled post-behemoths.