Author Topic: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins  (Read 11793 times)

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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #45 on: May 03, 2015, 03:17:56 PM »

Offline FreddieJ

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I disagree on the Orlando offer. Vucevick at 11 RPG/19.3 PPG is a keeper for the Magic, they don't need to give up assets to get DMC....they just need to do something else.

As far as creating deals featuring four of the Celtics young players and draft picks is fine, I just don't see it as realistic for the other team....at all....in any deal.

Olynyk doesn't have much value. He needs a team, system and coach to peak out.
Smart is really good, but, today's NBA seems to be tilted in favor of "scoring machine" guards and Marcus is weak in that area....I'm sure he will improve.
Zeller isn't going to get a lot in return.
Sully is my favorite, but, if he's the third best guy on the court, is his team a top contender?
Are we sure we get Crowder signed? I hope so, is Crowder a starter on a top playoff team?

I think the "Nets picks" discussion is the gig for Celtics fans right now. Ainge will use the Nets picks and some current assets to get our starting front court player...somehow.

DMC might be too expensive to the team who gets him....I wish it was the Celtics.

Vucevic is overrated. One of the worst defensive Centers in the league. Defense is pivotal for centers

Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #46 on: May 03, 2015, 04:18:28 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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New York cannot legally trade its 1st this year because they did not have one last year and have so few in the future. Unless they trade back for multiple picks and weaken the value of their best selection, they are out of the discussion.

The Lakers' pick is also mired in obligations. They have to hope that their pick falls within the top 5 to even enter DMC discussions. Let's be nice to them and say that it does. Since we're being entirely academic, I'll compare a Celtics offer with theirs:

Cs trade 16, 28, 33 and absorb Lance Stephenson's deal for Charlotte's #9 selection.

#9 < #4 or #5.
Sullinger = Randle (Sullinger has shown All-Star potential while still relatively young and just needs to move beyond his injury red flags. Randle meanwhile has similar injury red flags and we don't even know what his game will look like in the NBA. They are equal because Randle has a better contract).
Olynyk > Clarkson (I like Clarkson a lot and think he'll be a good player, but no one is valuing Clarkson based on his statistical performance because of how bad the Lakers are. Olynyk also plays a more valued position/role in today's game while Clarkson's contributions can be matched by a player on about 4/5s of the league's teams.
2016 BKN 1st >> 2016 LAL 1st (probably the one SAC would choose, and if the Lakers got Cousins, I doubt their pick would even be close to Brooklyn's)
James Young >>> nothing

We have a better offer and it's not even really close. To me this is a case of Celtics fans perceiving the grass being greener on the other side -- particularly in LA and NY -- and marginalizing the potency of Boston's assets in comparison. This also does not account for the Lakers' concerns about DMC leaving or clashing with Kobe.

Again a team that so recently burned by a moody super-talented big man. Zero chance Philly makes that move. Embiid's value is as low as it will probably ever be right now. They will not give up 2 potential superstars and a pick for a guy that could demand a trade in less than a year.

And another team whose wounds inflicted by a superstar big man have yet to heal, and whose assets are being overvalued. Dieng is a fine player, and probably a starter at the peak of his career, but the only thing we'd hear on this forum if he was a Celtic is "He's already 25." Sullinger and Olynyk -- because of age, but also because of talent and production -- are easily just as valuable as Dieng. While Sullinger plays the least valued NBA role of all three said players, he's the youngest and has been the most productive of all three by a long shot. Olynyk doesn't bring the defensive presence Dieng does, but he has the ability to play a role as offensively appealing as Dieng's role is defensively appealing. He too is younger than Dieng. So we're giving up two guys as valuable as Dieng (at least), the ability to trade up and offer SAC a top ten pick vs. their top 5 pick, a future 1st that is far more valuable than any 1st that a Minny team with Wiggins/DMC can offer (they can't offer their '16 1st so I believe the earliest one they could offer is 2017) plus a prospect that, while not as appealing as LaVine, certainly still holds a lot of value (James Young). If they offered up Rubio -- which I'm not sure they'd do -- their offer would be equal with ours, but in that case, Sacramento would go with the offer coming from outside the Western Conference. Another thing to consider is that Cousins would much rather live in Boston than Minnesota, so conferences aside, I think we can assume we'd get the tiebreaker because of that.

Orlando is the only one that scares me and they as well have fresh memories of Dwight Howard's 2012 fiasco. I'm also not sure if Orlando would give up what you are suggesting. If they did, they'd easily have the best offer, but by that logic, if we gave up all 3 Brooklyn picks, Smart, Young, etc. then we'd have the best offer. Ultimately I think Orlando bows out because of concerns about appeasing Cousins. Their unstable coaching situation really hurts them. Now if they can land Thibs, we may be in trouble...


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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #47 on: May 03, 2015, 04:31:19 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Randle has more trade value than either Sullinger or Olynyk at this point precisely because he is an unproven commodity.  There's still the allure of potential there.  The only Celtics player who has that is Smart.

I agree with you about the Timberwolves player assets.  The core of any offer from them would be their pick this year and another pick in the future.

As for the Lakers and Knicks picks, my understanding of the rule is that you are prevented from trading future picks in consecutive years, but either team could effectively trade its pick by drafting a player and then immediately including that player in the trade.

While the Celtics have the goods to trade into the top 10, I just don't see Cousins getting moved for less than a top 5 pick, precisely because I think if he were available at least one of the teams with a top 5 pick would be prepared to make an offer.

Bottom line, unless the Celtics have some kind of inside edge because the player getting traded has less than a year left and demands to get traded to Boston specifically, it's going to take a deal centered around one highly valuable piece, not a collection of moderately valuable pieces, to seal a deal for an elite player.

I do not view the Brooklyn picks (too speculative), Sullinger, or even Smart as having that kind of value.  If I were managing the Kings, I would rather take my chances holding onto Cousins than settle for a package like that.  It's not just me, either -- by all accounts the Timberwolves felt similarly about that package last summer when they were considering trading Love.
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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #48 on: May 03, 2015, 05:12:49 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Randle has more trade value than either Sullinger or Olynyk at this point precisely because he is an unproven commodity.  There's still the allure of potential there.  The only Celtics player who has that is Smart.

I agree with you about the Timberwolves player assets.  The core of any offer from them would be their pick this year and another pick in the future.

As for the Lakers and Knicks picks, my understanding of the rule is that you are prevented from trading future picks in consecutive years, but either team could effectively trade its pick by drafting a player and then immediately including that player in the trade.

While the Celtics have the goods to trade into the top 10, I just don't see Cousins getting moved for less than a top 5 pick, precisely because I think if he were available at least one of the teams with a top 5 pick would be prepared to make an offer.

Bottom line, unless the Celtics have some kind of inside edge because the player getting traded has less than a year left and demands to get traded to Boston specifically, it's going to take a deal centered around one highly valuable piece, not a collection of moderately valuable pieces, to seal a deal for an elite player.

I do not view the Brooklyn picks (too speculative), Sullinger, or even Smart as having that kind of value.  If I were managing the Kings, I would rather take my chances holding onto Cousins than settle for a package like that.  It's not just me, either -- by all accounts the Timberwolves felt similarly about that package last summer when they were considering trading Love.

Both Sullinger and Olynyk are still unproven. Sullinger could still be a Carlos Boozer. Kelly Olynyk could still be a more capably distributive Mehmet Okur. All they've done is raise their floors, an accomplishment not yet had by Randle. Perhaps you are right that Randle has more value than Sullinger does. But I will argue that in terms of player packages, Sullinger + Olynyk + Young far surpasses Randle + Clarkson from all possible perspectives (even youth).

You are mischaracterizing our assets. Again, Sullinger has All-Star potential left and Olynyk could be a dangerous offensive weapon a la Jamal Crawford or Isaiah Thomas except 7 freaking feet tall. Pair that with a top 10 pick, a lottery-destined Brooklyn 1st, and a prospect with James Young's potential (Michael Redd?), and we don't just offer "moderately valuable" pieces in comparison to an elite top 5 pick, but instead a plethora of very valuable but not elite pieces in comparison to 1, max 2 elite pieces (Philly, who as I explained would likely not go after Cousins).

edit: The only way a top 5 pick can be characterized as an elite asset is if heavy weight is offsetted towards its potential from its risk. Thanks to 82games we know that a top 5 pick has a 2/3s chance of becoming a "star" (http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm). What's the chance of a player already performing at Sullinger's level at his age on a team of similar competitiveness evolving into a "star"? 25-35%? According to 82games that's exactly the percentage chance that a pick between 6-10 evolves into a star. What's the chance of a player already performing at Sullinger's level at his age on a team of similar competitiveness evolving into a "star"? 25-35% (giving him a 50-70% chance of maintaining at least a starter's role, which he has at 23 years old)? That's exactly the percentage chance that a pick 6-10 evolves into a starting caliber player. So to me, unless you're deducting excessive value points from Sullinger because he's nearing his payday, how is a pick between 1-5 an "elite" asset, but a pick between 6-10 (Sullinger) is merely a "moderate" asset? Seems like a big jump to me.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2015, 05:23:21 PM by TheFlex »


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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #49 on: May 03, 2015, 06:17:30 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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Julius Randle broke his foot in his first NBA game and he has been dealing with foot problems since College. What makes him more enticing than Sullinger and Olynyk?

Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #50 on: May 03, 2015, 06:19:02 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I get the sense that you're focusing on how you feel these assets should be valued, whereas I'm coming at this from the perspective of how assets tend to be valued by teams engaging in trade discussions.

I think from that perspective there is no question that a top 5 pick is far more valuable than Jared Sullinger.  I don't think there's a team in the league that would treat Sullinger or Olynyk in a trade as a potential Boozer or 7 foot Jamal Crawford.

Teams are always going to take the pick because they're going to assume they will make a good pick, rather than see it as a "2/3" chance, or whatever.
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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #51 on: May 03, 2015, 06:20:24 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Julius Randle broke his foot in his first NBA game and he has been dealing with foot problems since College. What makes him more enticing than Sullinger and Olynyk?

He was perceived to have star potential before he got to the NBA and has not yet stepped on the court, so the allure remains.

I'm not suggesting this is how assets ought to be viewed, but this is how trade packages tend to be valued.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #52 on: May 03, 2015, 06:24:14 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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Julius Randle broke his foot in his first NBA game and he has been dealing with foot problems since College. What makes him more enticing than Sullinger and Olynyk?

He was perceived to have star potential before he got to the NBA and has not yet stepped on the court, so the allure remains.

I'm not suggesting this is how assets ought to be viewed, but this is how trade packages tend to be valued.

But Randle DID step into the court..... and got hurt.

Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #53 on: May 03, 2015, 06:32:10 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Julius Randle broke his foot in his first NBA game and he has been dealing with foot problems since College. What makes him more enticing than Sullinger and Olynyk?

He was perceived to have star potential before he got to the NBA and has not yet stepped on the court, so the allure remains.

I'm not suggesting this is how assets ought to be viewed, but this is how trade packages tend to be valued.

But Randle DID step into the court..... and got hurt.

OK, yes, you're right.

However, he didn't play long enough to really show how good he is or may be, and the injury he suffered was of a variety that isn't likely to affect his physical ability long term.  I don't think it's the type of injury that is usually considered an indicator of long term injury problems, either.

In effect, Randle will enter next year as a rookie.  One with a much higher pedigree -- whether that's right or wrong -- than Sullinger or Olynyk.
You値l have to excuse my lengthiness葉he reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #54 on: May 03, 2015, 07:23:40 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Randle is a better athlete than KO and Sully.  I think that is not really up for debate.  Whether he possesses greater skill is up for debate.

Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #55 on: May 03, 2015, 08:26:00 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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The wing and guard talent is much different today than it was 20 years ago, and the game as a whole is more perimeter oriented.

I think there are a number of big men who could play center and average 20 to 25 points per game on postups if a team was really determined to build their offense that way, but it wouldn't be to the team's benefit.

What makes Cousins so good is that he can operate pretty much any way you might want your center to operate offensively.  He's also a dominant rebounder and a very good defender.

Look, I don't think Cousins is on the same level as Shaq and Duncan and Hakeem.  But he's a lot better than Sheed and ZBo. 

Sheed probably had the talent to be as good as DMC, but went the way of Josh Smith instead.  ZBo was, and still is, very good, but he is a pure power forward who has never had a reliable jumper or an ability to anchor a defense.

Why not?  Didn't you also harp on the idea that traditional big men aren't important or needed in today's game, only to then make a thread after we were swept that focused on why size matters ;) in the playoffs, lol ;D

I guess that it all comes down to personal preference in terms of what you want out of your big guys.  Some people, and I don't remember if you were one of them or not, said that a tandem of two big guys who play in the post doesn't work, to which I rolled my eyes.  You don't even have to go back to the original Big 3 to see that it unquestionably works, either.  Look at the Bynum-Gasol duo, or, to a lesser extent, Hibbert and West.  There's nothing wrong with having traditional big men, especially when you get to the playoffs.  You don't win outside-in, you win inside-out, and having someone who can get you a high percentage shot from the post, foul, both, or a double team late in games is a huge weapon, as they make the game so much easier for everyone else.

Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #56 on: May 03, 2015, 08:29:39 PM »

Offline BornReady

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I agree kings are not in a desperation situation right now
And we have less tangible assets in our young players that the Kings would want

Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #57 on: May 03, 2015, 08:36:04 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I certainly don't recall ever making a thread indicating that traditional big men aren't important.  Certainly there is less focus on the post up in today's league.

It's a lot harder to find playing time for big men who have very little range and who can't protect the rim or finish inside at a very high percentage.


A tandem of big men who play in the post can work.  It requires a very high skill level, though, and it must be so potent that it's worth keeping the tandem in there even when the opponent has floor spreading bigs pulling them away from the basket on the other end.

You won't see many lineups today that feature multiple post options that score at a league average level.  Even the Grizzlies, as good as they are, have only managed the 13th best offensive efficiency in the league this season, which is their best mark for the Randolph-Gasol era.
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Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #58 on: May 03, 2015, 09:00:50 PM »

Offline colincb

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Julius Randle broke his foot in his first NBA game and he has been dealing with foot problems since College. What makes him more enticing than Sullinger and Olynyk?

He was perceived to have star potential before he got to the NBA and has not yet stepped on the court, so the allure remains.

I'm not suggesting this is how assets ought to be viewed, but this is how trade packages tend to be valued.

But Randle DID step into the court..... and got hurt.

OK, yes, you're right.

However, he didn't play long enough to really show how good he is or may be, and the injury he suffered was of a variety that isn't likely to affect his physical ability long term.  I don't think it's the type of injury that is usually considered an indicator of long term injury problems, either.

In effect, Randle will enter next year as a rookie.  One with a much higher pedigree -- whether that's right or wrong -- than Sullinger or Olynyk.


Randall played enough in summer league and pre-season exhibitions to demonstrate he wasn't the second coming. 13.4  PER SL + 4.9 PER preseason, with very poor +/- ratings in both venues. There had been some concern that he was going to slide out of the top 10 in the draft too.  Doesn't mean he won't turn out OK, and be better than the Cs PFs, but he isn't the type of  transcendent player who destroyed the competition early on as LBJ did for example.

Thus, the allure of the unknown is off Randall to some extent (he's no superstar), but the questions as to how his game will translate to the NBA still remain. But for the conditioning/injuries issues, I'd take Sully over Randall without hesitation.

Re: Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins
« Reply #59 on: May 03, 2015, 09:11:06 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Randle is a better athlete than KO and Sully.  I think that is not really up for debate.  Whether he possesses greater skill is up for debate.

Sullinger is the better rebounder, although, in fairness, he's a better rebounder than many guys in the league, especially when you factor in his lack of athleticism, but Randle is at least as talented, if not more so, in terms of passing than either of our guys, he can handle the ball, and he makes better decisions on the break than any of our guards, imo, lol ;D.  He's also much more nimble, which would be a significant upgrade over either Sully or KO if he has to switch onto a guard.  I was honestly torn between him and Smart, but I also must have been watching the wrong videos on Noah Vonleh at the time, because I saw one last week that showed his skills, and all I can say is wow :o.  If charlotte was dumb enough, lol ;D, I'd give them Sully and Nolynyk for him and left before they realized their mistake, ahaha ;D.  Anyway, here's a clip illustrating Randle's ability.  I know that it's a compilation of highlights from the preseason, but it's the best that I can do, haha ;D.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSb-mXtFvmI

Btw, as to the original question on why we have no chance at Cousins, I'd say that the answer is because the Kings aren't nearly that stupid, lol ;D.