Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins

[GreenGoggles]

I think the Celtics do ...but they need DCM wanting to leave for Boston I believe.

Three firsts and Sully should work , IF DCM tells them....look I need to leave.

Melo was traded at age 26 for not that much. That trade was more of what the OP was referencing in terms of quality vs. quality. Plus they only received one first in 2014 (used in the Affalo trade).

While DMC might be a better top 3 at his position than Melo at his, they are/were both headaches to heir team. Only difference is Melo got them to the playoffs and even to the WCF in 2009.

I think it's possible for the Celtics but DMC would want to leave, as Melo did, in order for it to happen.

But scoring big men will always be more valuable than a scoring wing. Especially one like DMC who has 3 years left on his deal and is only 24 or 25.

[PhoSita]

I think the Celtics do ...but they need DCM wanting to leave for Boston I believe.

Three firsts and Sully should work , IF DCM tells them....look I need to leave.

Melo was traded at age 26 for not that much. That trade was more of what the OP was referencing in terms of quality vs. quality. Plus they only received one first in 2014 (used in the Affalo trade).

Melo was traded with a year left on his deal and he had all of the leverage since he basically forced the Nuggets to trade only with the Knicks.

DMC has no leverage at all.

[PhoSita]

Also, Sacramento has to be willing to trade Cousins and I just don't think they want to or will until Cousins becomes seriously toxic in the Kings locker room.

I agree with this.  I don't think they're actually going to trade him.  Certainly not before next summer.  But the point of this post is to say, well, what if they do trade him this summer, or even next summer?

The only way I see DMC getting traded to the Celts is if the Kings wait until there's only a year left on his deal and he makes it known the only team he'll re-sign with is Boston.

If the Celts get really lucky and that 2016 Brooklyn pick ends up in the top 3 next June, then the Celts might be able to compete with other teams at that point in time.

[SHAQATTACK]

Seems to me I heard that Shaq is part owner of the Kings ?   Or did I dream that .....anyway if it is true .....you know Shaq is talking him into staying on the Kings .

Issue is ,   If he becomes to toxic , then maybe Celtics don't want him either .   

I think he just needs to decide for himself ....like Kevin Love did and KG eventually if he wants to win he needs to leave that city.

I'm just amazed he continues to stay there though ....same as I was amazed KG stayed in Minn .

If there is a player who needs a change of scenery , it is Boogie Cousins and maybe the Kings just to to pack it in with him, and try something different .....new core ...new star.

[colincb]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how:

Cousins is on a contract that doesn't expire until 2018.  That means he has three full seasons left on his deal beyond this summer.

So, let's assume that the Kings are ready to move on from Cousins and reboot. 

Maybe they're worried about him causing problems in the locker room.  Maybe Karl wants to remake the team with his own vision.  Maybe they think trading Cousins is just a matter of time and they want to get maximum value for him.


Because of the length on his deal, each and every team in the league with significant assets, even a team at the very start of a rebuild, has incentive to make a godfather offer for DMC.  He's a top 10 player in the league at a position scarce in talent -- especially offensive talent -- and three years is a long time to put together something good enough that Cousins would want to stick around.

Even if Cousins is unhappy to be traded to a given team at first, you have three years to make it work with a guy whose most notable attribute is that he hates losing, wants to be the focal point of his team, and is sick of changing coaches. 

Any team in the league with the assets to make a deal should be willing to take on that challenge.

Sure, the Celts have a mountain of picks and cost-controlled talent.  So what?  Just as we saw last summer with the pursuit of Love, when a team trades a star, what they really want back is quality of assets, not quantity.  Any team with a top pick plus a young player with a high pedigree (read: "upside") will trump the Celtics offer.

Beyond that, because Cousins is already really, really good and has multiple years left, any teams that already have quality players but have stalled out below the level of contender have lots of incentive to pony up a huge offer for Boogie.

Check out the list packages teams could offer:

Philly: Embiid + 2015 PHI 1st + future 1st of SAC's choosing
Lakers: Randle + Clarkson + 2015 LAL 1st + future 1st of SAC's choosing
Orlando: Vucevic + 2015 ORL 1st + Gordon + future 1st
Minnesota: 2015 MIN 1st + Dieng + Rubio / Lavine + future 1st
New York: 2015 NYK 1st + Hardaway + Larkin + future 1st

All of those teams have pick at the top of this year's draft, and most of them have exciting, or at least decent, young pieces and probably decent future picks to include.

What if SAC wants to stay competitive?  Remember, SAC has a crazy owner who is desperate to make a splash and probably won't care that it makes much more sense to reset with young talent.

Chicago: Rose + Noah + Mirotic
Washington: Beal + Porter + Gortat + multiple picks
Toronto: Lowry + Valanciunas + Ross + multiple picks
Detroit: Drummond + Jennings + 2015 1st + future 1st

Or how about this really crazy one:

OKC: Westbrook.  Straight up for Cousins + Collison.



Compare any of those deals to what the Celtics can offer:

Smart + Sullinger / Olynyk + Zeller + 2015 1st + BRK 2016 1st + BRK 2018 1st

That's three picks likely to fall in the 10-20 range plus a handful of pretty nice young role players with limited upside. 

Why would that excite Sacramento, at all, aside from the chance that Brooklyn completely bottoms out in 2016 and 2018 despite having no incentive whatsoever to do so?

Many of these trades are nonsense.

[PhoSita]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how:

Cousins is on a contract that doesn't expire until 2018.  That means he has three full seasons left on his deal beyond this summer.

So, let's assume that the Kings are ready to move on from Cousins and reboot. 

Maybe they're worried about him causing problems in the locker room.  Maybe Karl wants to remake the team with his own vision.  Maybe they think trading Cousins is just a matter of time and they want to get maximum value for him.


Because of the length on his deal, each and every team in the league with significant assets, even a team at the very start of a rebuild, has incentive to make a godfather offer for DMC.  He's a top 10 player in the league at a position scarce in talent -- especially offensive talent -- and three years is a long time to put together something good enough that Cousins would want to stick around.

Even if Cousins is unhappy to be traded to a given team at first, you have three years to make it work with a guy whose most notable attribute is that he hates losing, wants to be the focal point of his team, and is sick of changing coaches. 

Any team in the league with the assets to make a deal should be willing to take on that challenge.

Sure, the Celts have a mountain of picks and cost-controlled talent.  So what?  Just as we saw last summer with the pursuit of Love, when a team trades a star, what they really want back is quality of assets, not quantity.  Any team with a top pick plus a young player with a high pedigree (read: "upside") will trump the Celtics offer.

Beyond that, because Cousins is already really, really good and has multiple years left, any teams that already have quality players but have stalled out below the level of contender have lots of incentive to pony up a huge offer for Boogie.

Check out the list packages teams could offer:

Philly: Embiid + 2015 PHI 1st + future 1st of SAC's choosing
Lakers: Randle + Clarkson + 2015 LAL 1st + future 1st of SAC's choosing
Orlando: Vucevic + 2015 ORL 1st + Gordon + future 1st
Minnesota: 2015 MIN 1st + Dieng + Rubio / Lavine + future 1st
New York: 2015 NYK 1st + Hardaway + Larkin + future 1st

All of those teams have pick at the top of this year's draft, and most of them have exciting, or at least decent, young pieces and probably decent future picks to include.

What if SAC wants to stay competitive?  Remember, SAC has a crazy owner who is desperate to make a splash and probably won't care that it makes much more sense to reset with young talent.

Chicago: Rose + Noah + Mirotic
Washington: Beal + Porter + Gortat + multiple picks
Toronto: Lowry + Valanciunas + Ross + multiple picks
Detroit: Drummond + Jennings + 2015 1st + future 1st

Or how about this really crazy one:

OKC: Westbrook.  Straight up for Cousins + Collison.



Compare any of those deals to what the Celtics can offer:

Smart + Sullinger / Olynyk + Zeller + 2015 1st + BRK 2016 1st + BRK 2018 1st

That's three picks likely to fall in the 10-20 range plus a handful of pretty nice young role players with limited upside. 

Why would that excite Sacramento, at all, aside from the chance that Brooklyn completely bottoms out in 2016 and 2018 despite having no incentive whatsoever to do so?

Many of these trades are nonsense.

The trades are not meant to be realistic, but rather to demonstrate just how many teams could easily trump a Celtics trade offer of DMC becomes available. 

And you'd best believe that if a young superstar center becomes available, any team that isn't a clear cut contender as constructed will be ready to give up a treasure trove to get him.

[colincb]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how: Wall of text with a bunch of trades that are not realistic.

Many of these trades are nonsense.

The trades are not meant to be realistic, but rather to demonstrate just how many teams could easily trump a Celtics trade offer of DMC becomes available. 

And you'd best believe that if a young superstar center becomes available, any team that isn't a clear cut contender as constructed will be ready to give up a treasure trove to get him.

Somebody can top any offer we make by doing something unrealistic? That's pretty close to click-bait.

[GratefulCs]

I think the Celtics do ...but they need DCM wanting to leave for Boston I believe.

Three firsts and Sully should work , IF DCM tells them....look I need to leave.

DMC has no leverage, though, because of the length of his deal. 

The fact that he prefers a certain destination -- and why he would prefer Boston over all the others I mentioned, I don't know -- won't matter much.  Any team that gets him will have at least two full seasons to convince him to stay.  If he still wants to go, you can trade him for a modest package when he has a full season left.


I think Hinkie would be thrilled to trade Embiid and a fi****ll of picks for Cousins.  He's willing to gamble on lottery picks, why wouldn't he be willing to gamble on Cousins deciding to stay three years from now?  Sacramento would be crazy to take the Celts package over that one.

he has leverage in the sense that he can make the kings' life a living hell if he doesnt want to be there and they don't move him



PLUS if they WERE. Going to move him, wouldnt NOW be the time? If you wait til he's got a year left on the contract, you'll get lowballed

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how: Wall of text with a bunch of trades that are not realistic.

Many of these trades are nonsense.

The trades are not meant to be realistic, but rather to demonstrate just how many teams could easily trump a Celtics trade offer of DMC becomes available. 

And you'd best believe that if a young superstar center becomes available, any team that isn't a clear cut contender as constructed will be ready to give up a treasure trove to get him.

Somebody can top any offer we make by doing something unrealistic? That's pretty close to click-bait.

Not sure how the Orlando deal is unrealistic at all.

[colincb]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how: Wall of text with a bunch of trades that are not realistic.

Many of these trades are nonsense.

The trades are not meant to be realistic, but rather to demonstrate just how many teams could easily trump a Celtics trade offer of DMC becomes available. 

And you'd best believe that if a young superstar center becomes available, any team that isn't a clear cut contender as constructed will be ready to give up a treasure trove to get him.

Somebody can top any offer we make by doing something unrealistic? That's pretty close to click-bait.

Not sure how the Orlando deal is unrealistic at all.

I'm sure the folks in ORL would be thrilled to have DMC after dealing with D12. They've denied interest in the past. I'd bet the house that the ORL fanbase would be against that trade. Nonetheless, Bill Simmds siggested Vuc and their first this year which seems a lot closer to reality. Maybe throw in Harkless among the filler.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how: Wall of text with a bunch of trades that are not realistic.

Many of these trades are nonsense.

The trades are not meant to be realistic, but rather to demonstrate just how many teams could easily trump a Celtics trade offer of DMC becomes available. 

And you'd best believe that if a young superstar center becomes available, any team that isn't a clear cut contender as constructed will be ready to give up a treasure trove to get him.

Somebody can top any offer we make by doing something unrealistic? That's pretty close to click-bait.

Not sure how the Orlando deal is unrealistic at all.

I'm sure the folks in ORL would be thrilled to have DMC after dealing with D12. They've denied interest in the past. I'd bet the house that the ORL fanbase would be against that trade. Nonetheless, Bill Simmds siggested Vuc and their first this year which seems a lot closer to reality. Maybe throw in Harkless among the filler.

Good point, they're probably much happier as a perpetual Eastern Conference doormat.

[Endless Paradise]

Melo was traded for "not that much"? I beg to differ; there's a reason why people describe the Melo trade as Ujiri utterly robbing James Dolan.

[PhoSita]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how: Wall of text with a bunch of trades that are not realistic.

Many of these trades are nonsense.

The trades are not meant to be realistic, but rather to demonstrate just how many teams could easily trump a Celtics trade offer of DMC becomes available. 

And you'd best believe that if a young superstar center becomes available, any team that isn't a clear cut contender as constructed will be ready to give up a treasure trove to get him.

Somebody can top any offer we make by doing something unrealistic? That's pretty close to click-bait.

If anything I think if the offers are "unrealistic" it's because they are overpays.  Many of the packages listed could beat the best Celtics offer even if they were reduced (e.g. Fewer picks).  Those teams have a lot more trade firepower than the celts can hope to muster.

That's what I mean when I say they aren't all meant to be representative of the exact packages that would be offered.  They illustrate the point just fine.

My point here is that if Cousins is traded, it will be for quality assets, not quantity.  Further, because Cousins is so good, many many teams would be in the hunt.

 The Celtics would have one of the weakest offers at the table in that situation.

[PhoSita]

Melo was traded for "not that much"? I beg to differ; there's a reason why people describe the Melo trade as Ujiri utterly robbing James Dolan.

He was traded for a relative pu pu platter.  Likely Denver could have done better but had to settle for what the Knicks had to offer because Melo forced them to deal exclusively with the Knicks.

I'd say the nuggets are still feeling the fallout of that outcome.

[The One]

I agree. The Celts don't have a chance right now.  If somehow the 2016 Brooklyn pick is top 3, then they're in business.