Author Topic: Why we need to overpay this summer  (Read 9156 times)

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Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #30 on: May 02, 2015, 09:25:53 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Great thoughts LarBrd33.

I am just not keen on Greg Monroe as a player not necessarily because of his contract. I am still hopeful that Jared Sullinger can be 90% of what Greg Monroe is but on a better contract.  I'd prefer to have a player with more defensive capabilities at the PF.

Would much rather have Monroe. I am surprised how many people still want to give Sully the benefit of the doubt. Forget the contract and money. Sully is nothing more than a role player.

Fair comment. I don't want either player, so using Sully on a rookie contract feels better than paying Monroe a stack of money. I'm much more interested in a PF that can play some D, play with hustle and genuinely space the floor.

I think LarBrd's point is to stockpile assets now because they will easily be worth it later. Signing FAs is essentially free (you aren't trading anybody to do so) - even if signing a guy like Monroe is redundant (with a breakout season by Sully) and seems too expensive, he will maintain value with the new salary cap. Then you can make a decision on who you want to keep and who you want to trade. If you don't sign anybody at all, you do not have those extra options.

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #31 on: May 02, 2015, 01:28:09 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Trading half our roster for Cousins makes no sense.  Why?  Because it won't be an option.

If Cousins becomes available, every team with top draft assets will be in on the chase.  Why not, when he has multiple years left on his deal?  Why wouldn't Philly offer Embiid and their top pick this summer, for example?  Why wouldn't the Lakers offer their top pick and Julius Randle?

The Celtics will not be able to compete.


It also makes no sense that Orlando would let Harris go. 

If a team with a very young roster, with relatively little salary commitment and no obvious replacements waiting in the wing, is willing to just let a 22 year old 17 ppg scorer with excellent size and shooting ability leave for nothing in restricted free agency ... that should tell you to stay away from the guy they're letting go.


So it looks like overpaying for the likes of Monroe and trading for Derozan or Gallinari or something like that is where this thing is headed.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2015, 01:37:16 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2015, 03:11:26 AM »

Offline Hemingway

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I'm not so sure we can't make the best offer if Cousins became available. We could trade: Sully, KO, Young, Turner,  3 Nets future 1sts (2017 is the better for Bos or Nets pick), our pick this year, Clips pick this year, Future 1st from Mem, Dal and Minny*. We could also add a lot of 2nd round picks. Is there really an offer better? We could always add Smart in the deal.

My point is I think we can get him when he is getable. If I'm Danny I'm making calls draft night. That would be a perfect time. 7 or 8 first round picks and 3 or 4 young assets is a crazy deal. And if we can then sign LMA or Love or make a move for another big name, it very well could be worth it.

Cousins/Zeller
LMA or Love/Bass/Jerebko
Crowder
AB/
Turner or Smart/IT

We could have something like that and still have room to offer Durrant a max next summer.





could be 2 seconds.

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2015, 03:51:59 AM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Trading half our roster for Cousins makes no sense.  Why?  Because it won't be an option.

If Cousins becomes available, every team with top draft assets will be in on the chase.  Why not, when he has multiple years left on his deal?  Why wouldn't Philly offer Embiid and their top pick this summer, for example?  Why wouldn't the Lakers offer their top pick and Julius Randle?

The Celtics will not be able to compete.


It also makes no sense that Orlando would let Harris go. 

If a team with a very young roster, with relatively little salary commitment and no obvious replacements waiting in the wing, is willing to just let a 22 year old 17 ppg scorer with excellent size and shooting ability leave for nothing in restricted free agency ... that should tell you to stay away from the guy they're letting go.


So it looks like overpaying for the likes of Monroe and trading for Derozan or Gallinari or something like that is where this thing is headed.

Agreed, and I don't see overpaying either to be a rational option. Could talk me into Derozan on a cold, rainy day after we draft KO 2.0, but definitely not Gallinari.
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Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2015, 08:07:37 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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The team still needs to stay away from goofy money.


There is overpaying for a player and there is a bad contract for the player.   Even if the cap goes up and everyone has cap space, the teams on top are going to be the ones who pay their stars the biggest money and the rest, role player money.



I keep hearing the idea of throwing role player star level money.  That is still crazy.  Even with the cap going up, those type of deals will still eat up to much of the cap.   



Celtics need to "overpay" smart.  Not just throw max money at guys that may sign with the Celtics.

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2015, 08:18:17 AM »

Offline anewframe

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Great thoughts LarBrd33.

I am just not keen on Greg Monroe as a player not necessarily because of his contract. I am still hopeful that Jared Sullinger can be 90% of what Greg Monroe is but on a better contract.  I'd prefer to have a player with more defensive capabilities at the PF.

Would much rather have Monroe. I am surprised how many people still want to give Sully the benefit of the doubt. Forget the contract and money. Sully is nothing more than a role player.

Fair comment. I don't want either player, so using Sully on a rookie contract feels better than paying Monroe a stack of money. I'm much more interested in a PF that can play some D, play with hustle and genuinely space the floor.

I think LarBrd's point is to stockpile assets now because they will easily be worth it later. Signing FAs is essentially free (you aren't trading anybody to do so) - even if signing a guy like Monroe is redundant (with a breakout season by Sully) and seems too expensive, he will maintain value with the new salary cap. Then you can make a decision on who you want to keep and who you want to trade. If you don't sign anybody at all, you do not have those extra options.

Great point. I am just being picky   ;)

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2015, 08:33:07 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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The team still needs to stay away from goofy money.


There is overpaying for a player and there is a bad contract for the player.   Even if the cap goes up and everyone has cap space, the teams on top are going to be the ones who pay their stars the biggest money and the rest, role player money.



I keep hearing the idea of throwing role player star level money.  That is still crazy.  Even with the cap going up, those type of deals will still eat up to much of the cap.   



Celtics need to "overpay" smart.  Not just throw max money at guys that may sign with the Celtics.

Ideally they overpay by giving generous mid-level deals to unproven young guys who turn into valuable role players, and by giving larger deals to not-quite-stars who then blossom into All-Stars.

You want the deal to be an overpay when signed and then eventually be seen as a bargain for the last two or three years.
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Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2015, 08:37:41 AM »

Offline BleedGreen1989

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The team still needs to stay away from goofy money.


There is overpaying for a player and there is a bad contract for the player.   Even if the cap goes up and everyone has cap space, the teams on top are going to be the ones who pay their stars the biggest money and the rest, role player money.



I keep hearing the idea of throwing role player star level money.  That is still crazy.  Even with the cap going up, those type of deals will still eat up to much of the cap.   



Celtics need to "overpay" smart.  Not just throw max money at guys that may sign with the Celtics.

Ideally they overpay by giving generous mid-level deals to unproven young guys who turn into valuable role players, and by giving larger deals to not-quite-stars who then blossom into All-Stars.

You want the deal to be an overpay when signed and then eventually be seen as a bargain for the last two or three years.

I think this is spot on.

1) Kosta Koufos, Alexis Ajinca, or KJ McDaniels are guys who fit the first mold.
2) The usual suspects such as Greg Monroe, Toby Harris, or Khris Middleton fit the 2nd mold.
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Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2015, 08:40:03 AM »

Offline apc

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The salary cap for 2015-16 is 66.5 mil.

That is supposed to make a huge jump to 89 mil in 2016-17

That is supposed to make a huge jump to 108 mil in 2017-18

Are those salary cap jumps a done deal or a maybe?

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #39 on: May 04, 2015, 09:04:19 AM »

Offline saltlover

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The salary cap for 2015-16 is 66.5 mil.

That is supposed to make a huge jump to 89 mil in 2016-17

That is supposed to make a huge jump to 108 mil in 2017-18

Are those salary cap jumps a done deal or a maybe?

These are projected numbers from the NBA (although I believe the 2015-2016 number is 67.1, not 66.5).  Generally the NBA projects slightly conservative numbers so that teams don't overpay in year 1 expecting a bump in year 2 or 3 that doesn't occur.  It is unlikely these numbers will go down by more than $1-2 million, and wouldn't surprise anyone if they went up by at least that much.

Teams, as well as players and agents, will be using those future projections in negotiating salaries this summer.  Any deal that's more than one year really needs to have those revenue projections factored in when evaluating the year 1 cost.

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #40 on: May 04, 2015, 09:28:02 AM »

Offline Hemingway

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I generally agree not to overpay or waste cap space. But things are changing. For the next 2 or 3 years the general rules are out the window.

Maybe I'm just caught up on semantics, but you can't really overpay a superstar. I'd rather pay LBJ than pay just about anyone else a minimum contract. We can't really over pay for guys that are more than worth their max contracts (guys that would make more than the current max if teams could pay what ever they wanted but were still capped).

The guy we might overpay is Crowder and it might still be the right move. If Ainge really likes him, and I suspect he does, and another team signs him to a high offer sheet what do we do? It's now over paying vs losing an asset.

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2015, 09:35:07 AM »

Offline JBcat

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I made the argument here that we might have to wait until next year to go after the big names.  Basically what I said is there is not enough big names available this summer or maybe I should say I don't see many big names leaving their respective teams this summer (Even Cousins with 3 years left on his contract.)   Plus IMO we don't have enough high end assets at the moment to pull off a big trade and be very competitive.   I think that could change though starting with next year's draft and another year of development of many of our young players.   Even if most teams will all have cap space, we may have these desirable assets young players/high draft picks that not many teams have. 

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=77899.0

Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2015, 10:56:43 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Trading half our roster for Cousins makes no sense.  Why?  Because it won't be an option.

If Cousins becomes available, every team with top draft assets will be in on the chase.  Why not, when he has multiple years left on his deal?  Why wouldn't Philly offer Embiid and their top pick this summer, for example?  Why wouldn't the Lakers offer their top pick and Julius Randle?

The Celtics will not be able to compete.


It also makes no sense that Orlando would let Harris go. 

If a team with a very young roster, with relatively little salary commitment and no obvious replacements waiting in the wing, is willing to just let a 22 year old 17 ppg scorer with excellent size and shooting ability leave for nothing in restricted free agency ... that should tell you to stay away from the guy they're letting go.


So it looks like overpaying for the likes of Monroe and trading for Derozan or Gallinari or something like that is where this thing is headed.
Don't agree that Orlando is a given to match. Aaron Gordon plays a very similar role to Harris, if they feel that they can get better production out of a cheaper player, I could see them just keeping the cap space. Or at the very least agreeing to do a sign and trade to prevent the Magic from matching.

The gm said that they would do anything they could to keep Harris, but then a rumor came out that the gm would be nervous paying him anymore than $13 MM per. If the $13 MM a year is the Magic's ceiling I think they will be outbid.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2015, 11:01:54 AM by Evantime34 »
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Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #43 on: May 04, 2015, 10:58:44 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Trading half our roster for Cousins makes no sense.  Why?  Because it won't be an option.

If Cousins becomes available, every team with top draft assets will be in on the chase.  Why not, when he has multiple years left on his deal?  Why wouldn't Philly offer Embiid and their top pick this summer, for example?  Why wouldn't the Lakers offer their top pick and Julius Randle?

The Celtics will not be able to compete.


It also makes no sense that Orlando would let Harris go. 

If a team with a very young roster, with relatively little salary commitment and no obvious replacements waiting in the wing, is willing to just let a 22 year old 17 ppg scorer with excellent size and shooting ability leave for nothing in restricted free agency ... that should tell you to stay away from the guy they're letting go.


So it looks like overpaying for the likes of Monroe and trading for Derozan or Gallinari or something like that is where this thing is headed.
Don't agree that Orlando is a given to match. Aaron Gordon plays a very similar role to Harris, if they feel that they can get better production out of a cheaper player, I could see them just keeping the cap space. Or at the very least agreeing to do a sign and trade to prevent the Magic from matching.

Aaron Gordon is very raw and probably makes more sense in a 20 mpg bench role for the meantime.

Anyway, why let Harris walk?  It's not like the salary cap is an issue for Orlando.  Why  not just match any offer for Harris, see if you can fit him into your long term plan, and if not, trade him for assets?  Is there concern that he'll be untradeable on a large deal?  If so, why should the Celtics sign him?
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Re: Why we need to overpay this summer
« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2015, 11:04:12 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Trading half our roster for Cousins makes no sense.  Why?  Because it won't be an option.

If Cousins becomes available, every team with top draft assets will be in on the chase.  Why not, when he has multiple years left on his deal?  Why wouldn't Philly offer Embiid and their top pick this summer, for example?  Why wouldn't the Lakers offer their top pick and Julius Randle?

The Celtics will not be able to compete.


It also makes no sense that Orlando would let Harris go. 

If a team with a very young roster, with relatively little salary commitment and no obvious replacements waiting in the wing, is willing to just let a 22 year old 17 ppg scorer with excellent size and shooting ability leave for nothing in restricted free agency ... that should tell you to stay away from the guy they're letting go.


So it looks like overpaying for the likes of Monroe and trading for Derozan or Gallinari or something like that is where this thing is headed.
Don't agree that Orlando is a given to match. Aaron Gordon plays a very similar role to Harris, if they feel that they can get better production out of a cheaper player, I could see them just keeping the cap space. Or at the very least agreeing to do a sign and trade to prevent the Magic from matching.

Aaron Gordon is very raw and probably makes more sense in a 20 mpg bench role for the meantime.

Anyway, why let Harris walk?  It's not like the salary cap is an issue for Orlando.  Why  not just match any offer for Harris, see if you can fit him into your long term plan, and if not, trade him for assets?  Is there concern that he'll be untradeable on a large deal?  If so, why should the Celtics sign him?

The Magic would let him walk if they set a price for him and he exceeds that price. If they don't believe he is worth more than $13 MM a year to them and decide not to match then they could move him. Teams have been known to draw a line in the sand when it comes to the price of a free agent.

I expect Harris to get expensive, which is why I can see him leaving. However, I just found out that he's from New York and grew up a Knicks fan so I think it's more likely he signs with them for max dollars.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2015, 11:14:02 AM by Evantime34 »
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