Running it back (for most of the team) next season & asset collection mode again

[JBcat]

I'm just not convinced that this offseason we will have enough top end assets to land an elite player via trade, or have an elite free agent come here over a better team.    I'm not sure there are enough elite players even available anyway this offseason to really get in the game of aquiring 1 or 2 of them.  Of course you never really know with Ainge leading the way.  That is why I wouldn't be opposed to running it back with most of team with a few exceptions (example letting go of Bass pushing 30 for a younger prospect like Byombo).   

Starting next year even if we made the playoffs we could potentially have up to 3 lottery picks (Nets pick-good chance, Mavs pick top 7 protected-decent chance, and Wolves pick top 12 protected-unlikely but some of their young players could really grow next year).   That could be up to 3 high quality picks to use in a trade for a star.  Then of course for the 3 following years we have the option to swap picks with the Nets in 2017, the Nets 2018 pick, and the Grizzlies pick at the earliest I believe in 2019.    All of those picks could be lottery picks. 

If we can consolidate some of our 4 picks this year into either a late lottery pick this year or in the future that would be a plus.   We have enough mid level or so talent/assets so getting more of a higher quality asset to use to either draft or trade for a star would be beneficial IMO. 

I think there could be more stars available starting next year as well.  Cousins has 3 years left on his contract now so I don't think the Kings will panic just yet, but maybe so with 2 years remaining and they haven't gotten better.  I don't think Kevin Love will leave Cleveland just yet.  Names we haven't thought of yet like Paul George might become available with aging role players around him next year.  I don't think Leonard will want to leave SA now, but maybe in a year or 2 in a post Duncan era.  Who knows what will happen in OKC with Westbrook and Durant.  Maybe even someone like Jabari Parker is on the table then if the greek freak and him can only play the same position.   Maybe Drummond really explodes in Detroit but his team doesn't and wants out. 

My point is it doesn't seem like we will have many options to cash in on our so so assets at the given moment with very few elite players seemingly available.    Starting next year our draft picks should be in much better shape to move for a star player if we want, and there could be more stars available.  I'd rather collect more future assets if we can than cash some of them in now for someone like Monroe.   I would be for taking chances on younger prospects like Byombo or Harrison Barnes to replace some of our older players like Bass and Turner if we can.

By mostly running back the same team that was tied for 3rd in the best record since February 3 we have a chance of being a pretty good team next season.  We'll have Sully in a contract year, another year to see if Olynyk can make the leap, more development from Smart and Young.   Maybe even Crowder, Zeller, and Bradley can improve some, and we'll still have a great chip in Thomas still around.   I'd like to have 1 more year to figure that out before trading any of those players especially Smart. 

Better to cash in some assets now, or wait and collect more if you can as I suggest?

[D.o.s.]

Wait until cashing in makes more sense.

QED.

[slamtheking]

I don't think Danny will have much choice but to wait.  I don't see him making deals just for the sake of making deals

[Evantime34]

I think Danny will make a move this year if it prevents itself. I doubt he will decided whether to make a move this year based on anything besides the quality of the move available.

There is a good chance we wait another year to collect assets and make a move. However, if the opportunity to acquire a good player presents itself I think Danny will and should jump on it.

[Lucky17]

Nice post, TP. I agree with a lot here.

Although, I think there is something to be said for "cashing in"*: it frees up minutes for either the development of core players or the showcasing of others. Bringing in a talented player via trade can also assist in the evaluation of the remainder of the roster. How do these players improve when playing with a more skilled teammate?

*when the right opportunity and price presents

[PhoSita]

Contrary to a popular sentiment, I don't think Ainge will feel any kind of urgency to upgrade the team this summer.  His M.O. has always been to maximize his own flexibility by amassing resources that allow him to consider as many different options for improving the team as possible.

In other words, if Ainge doesn't see a chance to take the team to the next level this summer, he'll just keep making small, smart moves and wait until the next trade deadline, or next summer.

This is why it's important not to convince ourselves that making the playoffs as the 7th seed this season necessarily means that we have to head into next season with a team that is going to almost certainly win more than it loses and perhaps even challenge for the division title. 

Making the playoffs this season really doesn't have much at all to do with Ainge's strategy moving forward, or how well the team is likely to do next season.

[Chief Macho]

Good post.  I'm not enthused about giving out a bunch of money and getting back out of cap flexibility.   I think you need to be careful not to commit too soon.

[MBunge]

The only thing I'd bet on is that Ainge will add somebody at center.  Boston has plenty of cap room and Wallace coming off the books after next season, so grabbing someone like Asik or R. Lopez seems like a no brainer.

Mike

[PhoSita]

The only thing I'd bet on is that Ainge will add somebody at center.  Boston has plenty of cap room and Wallace coming off the books after next season, so grabbing someone like Asik or R. Lopez seems like a no brainer.

Mike

I agree, with the caveat that the "somebody" might be a less thrilling option, such as Alexis Ajinca, Bismack Biyombo, Kosta Koufos, or a draft prospect like Upshaw or Dakari Johnson.

[Donoghus]

I think this has been the plan all along (running it back next season) with an eye on next season's trade deadline & the summer of 2016. Obviously, if some "cant miss" deal came around, that could change but I'm more inclined to believe "running it back" is what will ultimately happen.

The interesting thing to me right now is what Danny does in this year's draft.  Does he stand pat and add another couple of kids to an already young roster or does he move these picks in some fashion?

[PhoSita]

I think this has been the plan all along (running it back next season) with an eye on next season's trade deadline & the summer of 2016. Obviously, if some "cant miss" deal came around, that could change but I'm more inclined to believe "running it back" is what will ultimately happen.

The interesting thing to me right now is what Danny does in this year's draft.  Does he stand pat and add another couple of kids to an already young roster or does he move these picks in some fashion?

It's a young roster, but it's also a roster lacking in upside (beyond "quality role player / decent starter").

So if Ainge moves some of the picks, I think it will involve moving up in the draft to select a guy with some greater upside, or it will be to acquire a player already established as better than that, or a player who has that potential.

I don't think Ainge will make any moves based on the premise "our team already has too many young guys taking up roster spots, I really can't expect Brad Stevens to develop even more of them at once."

[Snakehead]

TP.

I'm prepared for this to happen.  I think we may have really good assets in players but I feel like they aren't quite established enough yet and far enough along.  Another year in will help value... plus well just more young players.

I really hope we can bring in a free agent.  Been warming up to the idea of Middleton or Harris.  But I don't assume a trade will be there and I think we bring back Crowder for sure.  I'm personally not getting my hopes up for a big move but we will see.

[PhoSita]

Running it back with another young team doesn't have to be boring, though.

It could look like this:

- Trade Bradley + #16 for Lance Stephenson + #9
- Draft Stanley Johnson at #9
- Sign Tobias Harris
- Sign Bismack Biyombo
- Re-Sign Crowder
- Trade Kelly Olynyk and Evan Turner for Alec Burks


Smart / Thomas
Stephenson / Burks
Johnson / Crowder
Harris / Sullinger
Zeller / Biyombo


That could be a very fun team.

[Forza Juventus]

We should keep "collecting assets" as gms say and wait until Demarcus Cousins and Paul George have one or two years left on their contracts. Then we should try to trade for both players. They both have three years left on their contracts now.

[PhoSita]

We should keep "collecting assets" as gms say and wait until Demarcus Cousins and Paul George have one or two years left on their contracts. Then we should try to trade for both players. They both have three years left on their contracts now.

Kinda hard to just base your whole game on plan on waiting 2 or 3 years until a couple of guys maybe become available.  What do you do if they don't actually ever become available?  What if they sign (or get traded) elsewhere?

Ainge's job is a hard one.  He has to look for ways to improve the team in the here and now without relying on specific opportunities opening up in the future, while still remaining flexible in case they do.