Grizzlies break up looming? (personal speculation)

[celticsclay]

I think this seems like a weirdly timed thread with the Grizz on the verge of advancing to the second round. However, in game 3 Conley broke his face and will at a minimum have some limits for a few games moving forward. I don't really see them competing with the Warriors next round (assuming they would avoid a collapse against portland)

That leaves the question of what they do moving forward

Zach Randolph turns 34 this offseason (he makes about 10 for the next 3 seasons)
Tony Allen is 33 (and on the books for 5.5 each of the next two years)
Jeff Green is 50/50 to opt out for a multi year deal or get paid 9 million next year
Gasol is 30 and is a free agent
Lee is on the books for 5.5 next season
Conley is the only young guy in the Bunch at 27
Koufas is a really solid backup center, but tough to see him emerging as more than that at this point in his career (he also can't seem to stay on the court very long cause of fouls)
Edit: Koufas has gotten a lot better at not fouling this year

They have no young talent to speak of, unless Smith turns into something. So where do they go moving forward. Allen and Randolph are surely going to be declining over the next few years. What will they do? Does it make sense to trade away some of their players (Randolph or Conley), let Gasol walk and try to get some young talent in? They don't seem poised to contend with Houston or Golden State at a minimum the next few years.

It is probably unlikely they do this, but it seems like they probably have missed their best chances for a title with that group.

[JBcat]

I don't think they will break up this season.  I do think that future first round pick we got from them. (I think the earliest we can get it is 2017 but more likely in 2019) could be a sneaky good asset considering that the Grizzlies will be older team then.

[Fafnir]

It all depends on what Gasol does.

They're prepping to move on from Randolph eventually, slowly lessening his role.

[LooseCannon]

If Gasol wants to say, Memphis should keep it together for a puncher's chance at a title and hope they find a draft pick or a MLE free agent who provides a surprising boost to their rotation, then sell off Z-Bo and Gasol as they become expiring contracts.

Since they've shown a desire to make pure salary dumps to avoid the luxury tax, they seem like a team that would rather extend their playoff window without a huge payroll even if if they have little chance at a title.

[celticsclay]

It looks like they have 34 million next year committed to Randolph, Conley, Vince Carter (if he doesn't retire), Lee and Allen. If Green opts in for 9.2 that brings them up to 43. I wouldn't want to have 43 million committed to those 6 players.

Udrih, Koufas, Gasol all become free agents. Green, and to a lesser extent, Carter really impact what they can do. If those guys opt out (in Carter's case, retire) they have a lot of cap space. If they both stick around all they can really do is resign Gasol. Considering they wouldn't be able to afford Koufas and wouldn't have a backup point guard, that seems like a mess to me.

[Who]

They should keep this group together for another 2-3 years. They are not done yet.

[celticsclay]

They should keep this group together for another 2-3 years. They are not done yet.

I can't really recall a team being competitive with multiple starters that are 36 or 37. In our last good year for the Celtics the guys were around 34 (Randolph's age now). Gasol should still be good in 3 years, especially since his game is not predicated on athleticism. Allen, Randolph could at best be back ups.

[CapnDunks]

KG was effective in the 2012 playoffs as he was turning 36 and he had more/harder miles than Zbo or Gasol. Both of their games look like they will age well. My guess is they will keep running it back until it starts to get ugly.

So yeah, I'd guess 2-3 years. Probably moot if Gasol leaves. Get something for Zbo to accelerate a rebuild.

[DavorCroatiaFan]

Their pick from Jeff Green trade will be lottery pick. No way Memphis is in playoff in 4 years...

[Donoghus]

They have a legit shot against Golden State, IMO.

[Moranis]

Before Conley's injury I predicted Memphis would reach the NBA Finals before losing to Cleveland (of course that was also before the Love injury).  I still think they have a decent shot at beating Golden State if Conley can give it a go and be at least somewhat effective.  Their size down low is a real problem for GS (Bogut can't keep up with Gasol and Randolph can muscle Green).  Allen and Green are incredible pests on defense.  It will all come down to Conley v. Curry.  If Conley can at least play somewhat well, I still like Memphis in the series.  If Conley can't, then Golden State should win.

[celticsclay]

They have a legit shot against Golden State, IMO.

I felt that way about two months ago. Is it possible they have truly turned it up a notch for the playoffs? Perhaps. They were missing some players for injuries, and I don't want to overreact to 1 game, but when they played three weeks ago in a game Memphis needed badly and Golden State did not need at all, GS killed them. They also would have to win at least 1 game in Golden State. I really liked them for the reasons others mention (mainly their size), I just don't know if that is possible. Either way it really sucks that Conley is hurt.