50 Wins Next Season? Paint Me A Picture.

[PhoSita]

I would have a really hard time liking that team, LarBrd.  Really tough.


Here's my Kevin Love scenario.



- Celts sign Kevin Love
- Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan and James Johnson for Bradley, Sullinger, 2015 #16 and BRK 2016 1st.
- Hibbert exercises his Player Option.  Pacers looking to retool trade Hibbert for Wallace's expiring, Kelly Olynyk, and 2016 DAL 1st
- Dudley exercises his Player Option.  Celts trade Turner, Young, Babb, and Pressey for Dudley and long-time Ainge binkie OJ Mayo.
- Celts re-sign Crowder


Smart, Thomas
Derozan, Mayo
Dudley, Crowder
Love, Johnson
Hibbert, Zeller

[LarBrd33]

I would have a really hard time liking that team, LarBrd.  Really tough.


Here's my Kevin Love scenario.



- Celts sign Kevin Love
- Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan and James Johnson for Bradley, Sullinger, 2015 #16 and BRK 2016 1st.
- Hibbert exercises his Player Option.  Pacers looking to retool trade Hibbert for Wallace's expiring, Kelly Olynyk, and 2016 DAL 1st
- Dudley exercises his Player Option.  Celts trade Turner, Young, Babb, and Pressey for Dudley and long-time Ainge binkie OJ Mayo.
- Celts re-sign Crowder


Smart, Thomas
Derozan, Mayo
Dudley, Crowder
Love, Johnson
Hibbert, Zeller

Heh, nobody said the challenge had to result in a likeable team or an efficient use of assets... just a 50 win team.  Rondo, Afflalo, Melo, Monroe and Asik get you 50 wins and a 2nd round exit.

I definitely think the #1 goal will be trying to land a superstar.  We'll hear a lot about Cousins and Love.  I'm not sure who else can actually be made available.  Melo seems plausible.  Depending on who we land first, it will dictate the other moves Ainge makes. 

[PhoSita]

I would have a really hard time liking that team, LarBrd.  Really tough.


Here's my Kevin Love scenario.



- Celts sign Kevin Love
- Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan and James Johnson for Bradley, Sullinger, 2015 #16 and BRK 2016 1st.
- Hibbert exercises his Player Option.  Pacers looking to retool trade Hibbert for Wallace's expiring, Kelly Olynyk, and 2016 DAL 1st
- Dudley exercises his Player Option.  Celts trade Turner, Young, Babb, and Pressey for Dudley and long-time Ainge binkie OJ Mayo.
- Celts re-sign Crowder


Smart, Thomas
Derozan, Mayo
Dudley, Crowder
Love, Johnson
Hibbert, Zeller

Heh, nobody said the challenge had to result in a likeable team or an efficient use of assets... just a 50 win team.  Rondo, Afflalo, Melo, Monroe and Asik get you 50 wins and a 2nd round exit.

Yup.  A truly hateable team.  Also an injury disaster waiting to happen.  Not sure that lineup has enough shooting or speed to succeed either.  Quite a powder keg team if all does not go right from the start.


I think if a superstar becomes available via trade, the Celts will get trumped by a team with a top pick and / or a single young asset with greater value.

The strength of the Celtics' position is they can use picks to grease the wheels on a variety of smaller deals to form the right supporting cast once they acquire the star, as I demonstrated in the Love scenario.

[e4e5sesame]

I think to get to 50 wins, the Celtics will need to make two big time additions.

(1) A center -- either a defensive guy or Monroe. I am going to go with Monroe because I think he is the most gettable talented big man on the market right now.
(2) A creative offensive player on perimeter -- very few wings who fit that description so most likely a PG with Smart playing off guard. Ty Lawson is most available talented PG on the market.

PG: Ty Lawson, Isaiah Thomas
OG: Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley
SF: Jae Crowder, (free agent)
PF: Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk
 C: Greg Monroe, Tyler Zeller

Ugh.  This reminds me how hard it is to put together a guard rotation that features Isaiah Thomas.

The above is pretty much a nightmare scenario, because it necessitates one of the following:

• We have to suffer through a 110 defensive rating for 12 minutes each game, because IT4 and Lawson have to share the court.
• The over/under on IT4 asking to be traded is at about 20 games because we can only find 18 minutes for him in the rotation.

I really like his game, but I'm pretty sure the reason he fell to the 2nd round is because it takes way more effort to build a roster the suits him than most GMs are willing to put in.

[PhoSita]

I think to get to 50 wins, the Celtics will need to make two big time additions.

(1) A center -- either a defensive guy or Monroe. I am going to go with Monroe because I think he is the most gettable talented big man on the market right now.
(2) A creative offensive player on perimeter -- very few wings who fit that description so most likely a PG with Smart playing off guard. Ty Lawson is most available talented PG on the market.

PG: Ty Lawson, Isaiah Thomas
OG: Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley
SF: Jae Crowder, (free agent)
PF: Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk
 C: Greg Monroe, Tyler Zeller

Ugh.  This reminds me how hard it is to put together a guard rotation that features Isaiah Thomas.

The above is pretty much a nightmare scenario, because it necessitates one of the following:

• We have to suffer through a 110 defensive rating for 12 minutes each game, because IT4 and Lawson have to share the court.
• The over/under on IT4 asking to be traded is at about 20 games because we can only find 18 minutes for him in the rotation.

I really like his game, but I'm pretty sure the reason he fell to the 2nd round is because it takes way more effort to build a roster the suits him than most GMs are willing to put in.

I mean, the Celts are off to a good start.

Smart is a point who can defend both guard spots and play off the ball.  Check.

What the Celts need is a starting SG who is skilled enough to work well with Smart and who is also big enough to work next to Thomas.  Needs to work well off the ball and on. 

Bradley and Turner fall short here.  If Turner could defend and shoot he'd be perfect (but the Celtics would never have gotten him).

Get the right SG and that's a quality 3 guard rotation.

Making IT fit is not so different than making Lou Williams or Nate Robinson fit.  Tough, but it can be done, and work very well.

[e4e5sesame]

I think to get to 50 wins, the Celtics will need to make two big time additions.

(1) A center -- either a defensive guy or Monroe. I am going to go with Monroe because I think he is the most gettable talented big man on the market right now.
(2) A creative offensive player on perimeter -- very few wings who fit that description so most likely a PG with Smart playing off guard. Ty Lawson is most available talented PG on the market.

PG: Ty Lawson, Isaiah Thomas
OG: Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley
SF: Jae Crowder, (free agent)
PF: Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk
 C: Greg Monroe, Tyler Zeller

Ugh.  This reminds me how hard it is to put together a guard rotation that features Isaiah Thomas.

The above is pretty much a nightmare scenario, because it necessitates one of the following:

• We have to suffer through a 110 defensive rating for 12 minutes each game, because IT4 and Lawson have to share the court.
• The over/under on IT4 asking to be traded is at about 20 games because we can only find 18 minutes for him in the rotation.

I really like his game, but I'm pretty sure the reason he fell to the 2nd round is because it takes way more effort to build a roster the suits him than most GMs are willing to put in.

I mean, the Celts are off to a good start.

Smart is a point who can defend both guard spots and play off the ball.  Check.

What the Celts need is a starting SG who is skilled enough to work well with Smart and who is also big enough to work next to Thomas.  Needs to work well off the ball and on. 

Bradley and Turner fall short here.  If Turner could defend and shoot he'd be perfect (but the Celtics would never have gotten him).

Get the right SG and that's a quality 3 guard rotation.

Making IT fit is not so different than making Lou Williams or Nate Robinson fit.  Tough, but it can be done, and work very well.

I know it can be done, and Marcus Smart is supposed to be a big part of that.  But I don't think I'm alone in thinking that Smart may never develop into a serviceable primary ball handler, which poses a problem for us moving forwards.

[PhoSita]

I was very encouraged by some of the stuff I saw Smart do in this playoff series.  Gave me hope that next year we'll see a lot more of his game.

But you're right, a lot is riding on Smart at least becoming a George Hill / Greivis Vasquez caliber ball-handler.

[BDeCosta26]

20-9 down the stretch this year.  Very simple picture:

(20/29) * 82 = 56.55.

 

One thing I'm willing to say definitively is that the Celts aren't going to maintain that pace into next year if no significant changes occur.

But I highly doubt Ainge is just going to stand pat.

That's where I am. Is this a 56 win team, as our record post-ASG would be played out over 82 games? God no. But 42-40? Absolutely. 45-37? Sure, that could happen. Just by keeping the same guys and Smart making improvements. 35 wins? That could happen too, if everyone takes a step back. All possible. But we're not a high lottery team anymore and we won't be without gutting the roster. Which would alienate Stevens, the best part of the rebuild so far.

Of course, who really thinks Ainge does nothing? Every year players get moved we didn't think we're available. There's more going on than what seems plainly obvious.

Say Cousins wants out of SAC. A very real possibility. Trade SAC: Sullinger/Olynyk, Young, 2015 #33, 2016 BRK 1st, 2016 DAL 1st, 2017 LAC 2nd, 2016 MIN 1st/2 2nds, 2018 BOS 1st, 2020 BOS 1st (Lottery-Protected)

Re-sign Crowder, Jerebko. Sign Khris Middleton.

Trade Bradley and #16 to Jazz for #12 and Rodney Hood. Trade #12, #28 (or conversely one of Zeller/Olynyk) and 2016 MIA 2nd to Detroit for #8. Select SF Stanley Johnson (Or maybe a falling Winslow?)
 
That leaves

Smart/Thomas
Middleton/Hood
Johnson/Crowder
Sullinger, KO or LAC draft pick/Jerebko
Cousins/Zeller.

Leaves us with: 2016 BOS 1st, 2016 PHI 2nd, 2016 CLE 2nd, 2017 Better of BOS/BRK 1st, 2017 BOS 2nd, 2017 CLE 2nd, 2018 BRK 1st, 2018 MEM 1st, 2018 BOS 2nd, 2019 BOS 1st. Still a lot to play with.

I like that team, that team can win 50 now with Stevens, and I like the future for them too. Just one direction things could go. I could go all day with plausible but unlikely scenarios.

[Who]

I was very encouraged by some of the stuff I saw Smart do in this playoff series.  Gave me hope that next year we'll see a lot more of his game.

But you're right, a lot is riding on Smart at least becoming a George Hill / Greivis Vasquez caliber ball-handler.

This is what I am expecting from Smart. A George Hill level ball-handler and passer.

And I do not think that is enough.

George Hill's inability to be a creative offensive player has been a big hole for Indiana over the last few years. It puts so much pressure on the SG/SF to provide playmaking. Paul George isn't up that. It's too much responsibility. And the Pacers offense cannot function at a high enough level without more dribble penetration and playmaking. Even with Lance Stephenson alongside him, there was still a deficit in those areas.

The biggest problem with Indiana's offense over last few years has been the lack of creativity and playmaking from the PG position. The best way they can upgrade their offense is to move George Hill back into a combo guard off the bench role or as an undersized starting SG.

I mean -- Indiana had two of the better ball-handling & playmaking wings in the league on their team and they still had a problem building a strong offense with a lesser ball-handling / passing PG like George Hill. That to me highlights how difficult it is going to be to build a strong offensive team here in Boston if Marcus Smart is the PG in the long term. How much pressure Smart's lack of creative passing will put on the rest of the team to compensate for his limitations as a driver and passer.

[Celtics4ever]

Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan

  This is what I hope happens, he would be some more offense and can create his own shot, something we really need.

[PhoSita]

I was very encouraged by some of the stuff I saw Smart do in this playoff series.  Gave me hope that next year we'll see a lot more of his game.

But you're right, a lot is riding on Smart at least becoming a George Hill / Greivis Vasquez caliber ball-handler.

This is what I am expecting from Smart. A George Hill level ball-handler and passer.

And I do not think that is enough.

George Hill's inability to be a creative offensive player has been a big hole for Indiana over the last few years. It puts so much pressure on the SG/SF to provide playmaking. Paul George isn't up that. It's too much responsibility. And the Pacers offense cannot function at a high enough level without more dribble penetration and playmaking. Even with Lance Stephenson alongside him, there was still a deficit in those areas.

The biggest problem with Indiana's offense over last few years has been the lack of creativity and playmaking from the PG position. The best way they can upgrade their offense is to move George Hill back into a combo guard off the bench role or as an undersized starting SG.

I mean -- Indiana had two of the better ball-handling & playmaking wings in the league on their team and they still had a problem building a strong offense with a lesser ball-handling / passing PG like George Hill. That to me highlights how difficult it is going to be to build a strong offensive team here in Boston if Marcus Smart is the PG in the long term. How much pressure Smart's lack of creative passing will put on the rest of the team to compensate for his limitations as a driver and passer.

I think you may be right, but I'm not so sure.

Part of Indiana's problem is that they've been a post-heavy offense based around two OK at best post options.  On top of that, Paul George has not been the most efficient scorer as a primary option.

In Brad Stevens's system, I think a point guard like Hill could work effectively so long as the wings and big men have the ability to shoot and keep the ball moving.

If the Celts can acquire a wing with ball-handling and creativity similar to Evan Turner, but with the ability to consistently hit an outside shot and defend his position adequately, I think that could work.  I guess that more or less describes Lance Stephenson during his breakout year in Indiana. 

So mostly I'm putting my trust in Stevens and the difference that superior shooting and passing in the frontcourt would make.

[LooseCannon]

Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan

  This is what I hope happens, he would be some more offense and can create his own shot, something we really need.

What's the fascination with a shooting guard who is 27% career on threes and who dribbles too much while being bad at dribbling?  If he creates his own shot, it's because he is a chucker who creates a lot of contested shots.  He'd be a bad fit for an offense based on ball movement and would be a downgrade on defense.

[Evantime34]

Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan

  This is what I hope happens, he would be some more offense and can create his own shot, something we really need.

What's the fascination with a shooting guard who is 27% career on threes and who dribbles too much while being bad at dribbling?  If he creates his own shot, it's because he is a chucker who creates a lot of contested shots.  He'd be a bad fit for an offense based on ball movement and would be a downgrade on defense.

The fascination is with a guy who gets to the line 7-8 times a game. That is a useful offensive skill.

[The Rondo Show]

Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan

  This is what I hope happens, he would be some more offense and can create his own shot, something we really need.

What's the fascination with a shooting guard who is 27% career on threes and who dribbles too much while being bad at dribbling?  If he creates his own shot, it's because he is a chucker who creates a lot of contested shots.  He'd be a bad fit for an offense based on ball movement and would be a downgrade on defense.

The fascination is with a guy who gets to the line 7-8 times a game. That is a useful offensive skill.

I agree. However, I don't see why the Raptors would part ways with him

[LooseCannon]

Raptors look to retool and agree to trade Derozan

  This is what I hope happens, he would be some more offense and can create his own shot, something we really need.

What's the fascination with a shooting guard who is 27% career on threes and who dribbles too much while being bad at dribbling?  If he creates his own shot, it's because he is a chucker who creates a lot of contested shots.  He'd be a bad fit for an offense based on ball movement and would be a downgrade on defense.

The fascination is with a guy who gets to the line 7-8 times a game. That is a useful offensive skill.

But he's bad enough at everything else that he is a net negative player.  You're looking at a player who resembles Kobe Bryant.  Unfortunately, he resembles old Kobe, not prime, championship-winning Kobe.