Author Topic: Threes and Free Throws  (Read 2303 times)

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Threes and Free Throws
« on: April 26, 2015, 12:16:56 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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The bedrock of efficient offense in today's NBA is three pointers and free throws.  Down in Houston, they've taken this principle to heart, and this year attempted 32.7 three pointers per game while also attempting 26 free throws a game. 

As a result, Houston ranked 1st and 2nd in the league in those categories, respectively.  Importantly, the Rockets weren't just hoisting up attempts; they led the league in three point makes per game, and were 5th in made free throws. 

This focus on efficient offense, along with a strong defensive scheme, helped the Rockets fight for the 2nd seed in the West despite losing Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones to injury for much of the season.


Our Celtics, on the other hand, were a far cry from Houston's cut-out-the-middle offense.  Boston ranked near the middle (13th) in both three point attempts and makes, though they were 27th in the league in percentage with a team average of 32.7 percent.  That means the Celtics actually didn't break even on three point attempts as a team this year! 

What really held the Celtics down was free throws; they ranked 27th in free throw attempts with roughly 20 a game, and 28th a game in makes.


To get to the bottom of this problem, take a look at how the key players on the roster ranked overall in relevant categories:

Thomas - 9th in FTA per 100; 26th in 3PM per 100
Bradley - 290th in FTA per 100; 82nd in 3PM per 100
Turner - 239th in FTA per 100; 227th in 3PM per 100
Smart - 218th in FTA per 100; 97th in 3PM per 100
Crowder - 165th in FTA per 100; 137th in 3PM per 100
Sullinger - 182nd in FTA per 100; 157th in 3PM per 100
Olynyk - 139th in FTA per 100; 127th in 3PM per 100
Zeller - 116th in FTA per 100; No 3 pointers
Bass - 104th in FTA per 100; No 3 pointers
Jerebko - 265th in FTA per 100; 118 in 3PM per 100


What this helps demonstrate:

- Other than Thomas, the Celtics' guards do not get to the free throw line, and they aren't very productive outside shooters, either.

- Celtics' big men do not get to the free throw line very often.  It is especially egregious for non-shooters like Zeller and Bass to fail to get to the line more often.

- Bradley and Turner are poor starting options on the wing, failing to stand out in any way.  Smart will hopefully improve his shooting or get to the line more often. 

- The Celtics roster lacks specialization.  There aren't enough players who are especially good at either shooting from outside or getting to the line, and only one guy who is especially good at both.



What are your thoughts?  Who should the Celtics target via trade or in free agency to try and fix these weak points?
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2015, 12:46:27 PM »

Offline dwoumn

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Agreed! 1 of 3 things is going to have to happen.

1. We will need to sign FA that are specialize in a particular area of the game... i.e. Danny Green for his 3 ball.

2. The roster that the C's have to improve attacking the rim to get to the freethrow line as well as being able to knock down shoots (especially when they are wide open, which we missed way too many of them in the playoffs.)

3. Coach Stevens will have to adjust his offense to fit the roster of the team.

For the C's to get over the hump, it will be a combination of all three of these.

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2015, 12:49:20 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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I agree with all of it. on the surface we are a "perimeter" team. but without any players that I would actually consider an actual "shooter", with maybe Olynyk being the closest to that.

we're a perimeter team because of our limitations. no one likes to drive all the way to the basket(with the exception of IT) which in turn gets us no free throw attempts and makes a perimeter team...a bad perimeter team on top of it.

sooo if we're going to insist on settling on this kind of production? clearly a defensive center isn't our biggest need, it's shooters. 

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2015, 12:55:09 PM »

Offline dwoumn

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we're a perimeter team because of our limitations. no one likes to drive all the way to the basket(with the exception of IT) which in turn gets us no free throw attempts and makes a perimeter team...a bad perimeter team on top of it.


Is it that no one likes to drive or is it their inability to drive the lane. I think it is more an inability to drive the lane. AB in particular comes to mind.

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2015, 12:56:06 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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sooo if we're going to insist on settling on this kind of production? clearly a defensive center isn't our biggest need, it's shooters.

This was my thought, too.

Sure, the Celts need a "rim protector" as has been repeated over and over.  But what might make a bigger difference is actually finding guys who can regularly nail shots from deep, and ideally adding a couple guys who can get to the line more regularly.


I should note, having Isaiah Thomas for a full season would significantly help the Celtics' overall team stats in free throws.  Still, more help needed there.



Is it that no one likes to drive or is it their inability to drive the lane. I think it is more an inability to drive the lane. AB in particular comes to mind.

I agree that with AB it's a matter of not having the skillset to drive and create contact.


With Turner and Smart, I think both players have the ability to drive and get to the line more often, but neither does.  Smart, I think, will improve there.  Turner has no excuse.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2015, 01:03:38 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I think the offensive system is in place for the Celtics to grow more efficient offensively. They spac the floor for the ability to open lanes for guards to penetrate and have mostly eschewed the mid range game for the three point shot. Players are taking open three looks when they are available regardless of the time on the shot clock but the personnel for the most part doesn't fit the system.

Smart has to become the system's PG and he needs to take advantage of the open space by driving to the basket and creating efficient at the basket hoops or contact for foul shots. But the wing position needs more efficient scorers and better shooters. Players that, who knows, might be available via trade or free agency I would look at are Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Anthony Morrow and/or JJ. Redick.

Add a center that can be efficient in a Tyson Chandler way but also be a defensive presence, then replace Turner with Leonard, Bradley with Redick and add shooting specialist Morrow and I would think the talent upgrade and more efficient offense would make a huge difference.

Not really probable to do but that's the direction  this team needs to go.


Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2015, 01:06:36 PM »

Offline GC003332

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Having a greater inside presence on offence would go a great way to improving our average shooters, getting them better quality looks and thus upping their percentages.Help draw some double teams make it easier on them.

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2015, 01:16:36 PM »

Offline dwoumn

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Having a greater inside presence on offence would go a great way to improving our average shooters, getting them better quality looks and thus upping their percentages.Help draw some double teams make it easier on them.


Most definitely! And the thing about that is we could have that inside presence with Sully and Olynyk but that's not part of the system. Moving forward Coach Stevens has to work this in like both the Spurs and Hawks do with their offense.

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2015, 01:17:51 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I agree with you, Nick.

This team, in my view, is a prototype.  The system they've got in place will allow them to win games in the future and be competitive.  They need players with similar skills and versatility, but more physical talent and shooting skill.

Kawhi Leonard is a pipe dream.  I would be over the moon if the Celts got him.  He's probably my favorite non-Celtic in the league right now.  The other guys you mentioned are solid suggestions, though.  I've always liked Morrow and I think it's just a matter of time before he finds a stable role somewhere.  He's just too good a shooter.


Although I agree that a Tyson Chandler style center would be ideal, a couple of names intrigue me that don't fit that mold:

Nikola Pekovic and Greg Monroe


Neither guy is great defensively.  However, they both get to the line, gobble up rebounds, and score well in the post.  The challenge would be finding a power forward who could fit with either.


Speaking of Timberwolves, another guy who I've always liked is Kevin Martin.  He gets to the line and shoots threes.  He's a designated hitter, though.  Still, both he and Pek should be available for a reasonable price.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2015, 01:41:22 PM »

Offline Who

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@ threes,

(1) a SF who can shoot
(2) a starting PG who can attack, beat his man, get into the paint and make good pass

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2015, 01:57:23 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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This season, the Celtics had a slightly above-average defense and a slightly below-average offense, as measured by offensive/defensive rating.

Ideally, they improve on both.  In terms of roster construction, I'd rather have the goal of being a top five defense and a slightly above-average offense instead of trying to be borderline top ten in both offense and defense.  So, I think getting a big man who can be an intelligent defender is a key offseason goal.
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Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2015, 01:59:59 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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This season, the Celtics had a slightly above-average defense and a slightly below-average offense, as measured by offensive/defensive rating.

Ideally, they improve on both.  In terms of roster construction, I'd rather have the goal of being a top five defense and a slightly above-average offense instead of trying to be borderline top ten in both offense and defense.  So, I think getting a big man who can be an intelligent defender is a key offseason goal.


I think creating an elite defensive team is definitely a more worthy goal than being top 10 in offense.

That said, it's tough to get elite defensive big men.  It would probably be easier to improve this roster by adding shooters than it would be to add the kind of big man who can get them close to the top of the league defensively.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2015, 02:02:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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@ threes,

(1) a SF who can shoot
(2) a starting PG who can attack, beat his man, get into the paint and make good pass

Agreed on the SF.  Replacing Turner with a forward who can shoot and still get to the line would make a huge difference.

As for the PG, I think they can stick with the Smart / Thomas combo and hope to see enough improvement from Smart to make it work.  The alternative would be to shell out a bunch of money or assets to get a middle-of-the-road starting option like Reggie Jackson, Kemba Walker, or Brandon Jennings.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2015, 02:07:32 PM »

Offline Who

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@ threes,

(1) a SF who can shoot
(2) a starting PG who can attack, beat his man, get into the paint and make good pass

Agreed on the SF.  Replacing Turner with a forward who can shoot and still get to the line would make a huge difference.

As for the PG, I think they can stick with the Smart / Thomas combo and hope to see enough improvement from Smart to make it work.  The alternative would be to shell out a bunch of money or assets to get a middle-of-the-road starting option like Reggie Jackson, Kemba Walker, or Brandon Jennings.

I am not seeing it with Smart.

The most important element to offenses in NBA now is dribble penetration rather than post play in the past. You gotta have someone who can beat his man and get into the paint. Smart was the worst starting PG in the league at this this season. Even with improvement, it's unlucky he'll ever be more than bottom 1/3 (at driving).

Most teams get the dribble penetration from the PG position. A few lucky teams have a LeBron or a Harden who can do the job for them. If Boston cannot get a wing like that -- which given how few of them are in the league seems highly unlikely to happen -- I have a tough time seeing them ever having a high functioning offense with Smart at the point.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2015, 02:24:12 PM by Who »

Re: Threes and Free Throws
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2015, 02:11:20 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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@ threes,

(1) a SF who can shoot
(2) a starting PG who can attack, beat his man, get into the paint and make good pass

Agreed on the SF.  Replacing Turner with a forward who can shoot and still get to the line would make a huge difference.

As for the PG, I think they can stick with the Smart / Thomas combo and hope to see enough improvement from Smart to make it work.  The alternative would be to shell out a bunch of money or assets to get a middle-of-the-road starting option like Reggie Jackson, Kemba Walker, or Brandon Jennings.

I am not seeing it with Smart.

The most important element to offenses in NBA now is dribble penetration rather than post play in the past. You gotta have someone who can beat his man and get into the paint. Smart was the worst starting PG in the league at this this season. Even with improvement, it's unlucky he'll ever be more than bottom 1/3.

Most teams get the dribble penetration from the PG position. A few lucky teams have a LeBron or a Harden who can do the job for them. If Boston cannot get a wing like that -- which given how few of them are in the league seems highly unlikely to happen -- I have a tough time seeing them ever having a high functioning offense with Smart at the point.

You might be right, but it's too early in Smart's development to just give up on him.  So either you try Smart at the 2, or you see if he can get inside and to the line at least as often as he did in college.

There just aren't many better options for the Celts at point guard right now, as far as I can see.  Unless you want Ainge to give up a treasure trove to acquire Ty Lawson.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain