Author Topic: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?  (Read 7886 times)

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Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #45 on: April 25, 2015, 11:33:30 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Olynyk's been pretty much the same player for two full seasons and he's 24. A better question might be "when will he start to decline"?

Did you guys not see how rapidly Olynyk improved last year after the all-star break versus before the all star break?  He made massive strides.


He improved from the first half of his rookie season to the second half of that season. I think that's to be expected.

But he was an old rookie, and most NBA players don't get much better past the age of 24.

http://basketballnumbers.com/2010/08/12/age-productivity-model-for-the-nba-revisited/

Quote
You see  a gradual increase up to about 24 and then players remain at a consistent level across until they hit a gradual decline at 30.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703478704574612553424283372

Quote
NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining,...
I do think the Olynyk's potential at this point is limited, but that data may not apply to him, because the average 24 year old in the nba has been in the nba for longer than him. By 24 most guys in the nba have had years to develop in the nba whereas he hasn't.

Overall though, I do think he is very unlikely to be more than a 15-20 minute bench player on a good team and honestly wouldn't be shocked if he's not even a rotation player in a few years. He's undertalented and I think the glue is drying for him on a lot of the stuff people have been talking about here - I think if he tried to drastically change his body type at 24 it would be a desperation move, and he simply doesn't have the instincts to make the most of the talent he does have.

Agreed generally.

More specifically your point about time in the NBA is certainly a valid one, but KO's primary limitation isn't that he doesn't have enough experience/savvy to play the NBA game. That's actually an area where he's already pretty good.

KO's limitations are physical and a lot of this thread seems to be saying he needs work there. But let's not forget that he already took a whole year off in college to do nothing but work on his physical development, primarily by bulking up while maintaining agility. Do we really think he has a lot of untapped potential there?

Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #46 on: April 25, 2015, 11:36:44 AM »

Offline Chief Macho

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I don't think he's going to be very good.  He's already in his mid 20's.  He's just too goofy.   Not a great pick by Danny.   I hope I'm wrong.

Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #47 on: April 25, 2015, 11:43:36 AM »

Offline Who

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one big game tomorrow and everyone's tune changes.  Brad and Danny believe,  so there's that. It seems like he needs to be more of the focal point on offense,  either shooting or facilitating others.  Let's see if he can get hot.
I agree. I worry about that with him. He needs a lot of touches on offense to properly utilize his passing ability and to get good consistent scoring from him since he regularly has patches of passive play in terms of taking shots that are there for him.

I doubt Olynyk will ever be the best big man on a top team so I worry about him getting enough touches to ever truly take advantage of his skill-level as a passer and high post facilitator at the highest level.

Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #48 on: April 25, 2015, 11:47:45 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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one big game tomorrow and everyone's tune changes.  Brad and Danny believe,  so there's that. It seems like he needs to be more of the focal point on offense,  either shooting or facilitating others.  Let's see if he can get hot.
I agree. I worry about that with him. He needs a lot of touches on offense to properly utilize his passing ability and to get good consistent scoring from him since he regularly has patches of passive play in terms of taking shots that are there for him.

I doubt Olynyk will ever be the best big man on a top team so I worry about him getting enough touches to ever truly take advantage of his skill-level as a passer and high post facilitator at the highest level.

I agree with this.  Kelly is a guy who will need a lot of touches to be an effective player.  I say next year is the time to start making him more of a focal point of the offense. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #49 on: April 25, 2015, 12:02:14 PM »

Offline clover

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one big game tomorrow and everyone's tune changes.  Brad and Danny believe,  so there's that. It seems like he needs to be more of the focal point on offense,  either shooting or facilitating others.  Let's see if he can get hot.
I agree. I worry about that with him. He needs a lot of touches on offense to properly utilize his passing ability and to get good consistent scoring from him since he regularly has patches of passive play in terms of taking shots that are there for him.

I doubt Olynyk will ever be the best big man on a top team so I worry about him getting enough touches to ever truly take advantage of his skill-level as a passer and high post facilitator at the highest level.

I agree with this.  Kelly is a guy who will need a lot of touches to be an effective player.  I say next year is the time to start making him more of a focal point of the offense.

I'm afraid that Danny has a better appreciation for KO than Brad does. His practically getting benched the last game wasn't a good sign IMO: the argument about getting into the playoffs was the valuable experience it gives our young guys, and here's one of our young guy not getting enough minutes in any game so far--and being practically benched for one of the games.

I also don't think KO's been as effectively coached as he should have been. From comments he's made in the last couple of months he still thinks of taking too many shots as being "selfish", and he just really doesn't seem to have a good take on his game, his strengths, and what he should be concentrating on. I get the idea that all the bigs get told to box out. KO's one of the few who does so, and then he gets dinged for not reeling in the board himself.

I'd like to see him neither flitting about worldwide as much as he did last summer, nor spending his offseason dutifully in Boston when he isn't. I'd like to see him in one of the toughest offseason camps, with a focus on big men, really practicing with and learning how to play down low with the best of his peers.

Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #50 on: April 25, 2015, 12:18:38 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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Agreed generally.

More specifically your point about time in the NBA is certainly a valid one, but KO's primary limitation isn't that he doesn't have enough experience/savvy to play the NBA game. That's actually an area where he's already pretty good.

KO's limitations are physical and a lot of this thread seems to be saying he needs work there. But let's not forget that he already took a whole year off in college to do nothing but work on his physical development, primarily by bulking up while maintaining agility. Do we really think he has a lot of untapped potential there?
I think he's still lacking in a lot of areas. People often say "he needs to post, he needs to learn to be more physical and establish position" which is IMO his biggest area of weakness from a mental point of view. That is something that isn't finished yet for him. I would still be concerned because in the words of Pat Riley "this stuff is hard" and it just takes a LONG time to get it.

I think his chance to be an impact player is if he can lessen some of his biggest flaws and  become a 40% 3 pt shooter - maybe something like Matt Bonner.
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Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #51 on: April 25, 2015, 12:36:00 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Agreed generally.

More specifically your point about time in the NBA is certainly a valid one, but KO's primary limitation isn't that he doesn't have enough experience/savvy to play the NBA game. That's actually an area where he's already pretty good.

KO's limitations are physical and a lot of this thread seems to be saying he needs work there. But let's not forget that he already took a whole year off in college to do nothing but work on his physical development, primarily by bulking up while maintaining agility. Do we really think he has a lot of untapped potential there?
I think he's still lacking in a lot of areas. People often say "he needs to post, he needs to learn to be more physical and establish position" which is IMO his biggest area of weakness from a mental point of view. That is something that isn't finished yet for him. I would still be concerned because in the words of Pat Riley "this stuff is hard" and it just takes a LONG time to get it.

I think his chance to be an impact player is if he can lessen some of his biggest flaws and  become a 40% 3 pt shooter - maybe something like Matt Bonner.

I think Matt Bonner is a terrible comparison.  Kelly has a considerably more advanced and varied offensive skill set than Bonner. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Olynyk at peak. How good is he?
« Reply #52 on: April 25, 2015, 02:04:46 PM »

Offline Chef Parish

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How much better can he improve his conditioning??

Should he get slimmer or try to build a similar body as Love?

What about in terms of able to take over games??

Does he have the tools and skills to become an all star (or near all star)?

He needs to get some protective goggles before he loses an eye.