Olynyk at peak. How good is he?

[chambers]

He's 24 already.  He's probably not getting much better.  Poor man's Andrea Bargnani if he ever gets starter minutes (34+). 

Barg at the same age averaged 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 block on 47%/37%/77% shooting

Diff is Barg got 35 mins and Oly got 22 min.

Per-36 Barg - 17.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 blocks, 47%/37%/77%
Per-36 Oly - 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 47%/35%/68%

Poor Man's Bargnani? 

Olynyk is not far off Bargnani as a scorer (at least on a per minute basis) but he's a far better passer and rebounder. 

People seem to forget that KO averaged almost as many rebounds than Sully last year on a Per-minute basis (something like 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes).  He's a much better rebounder than people give him credit for, especially as an offensive rebounder (where he's borderline elite).

They're different kinds of offense though. Bargani gives you those points via ISOs and some set up three pointers from ball movement. Olynyk gets basically 95% of his points from just standing on the perimeter as the ball swings whilst our guards dish. He's got nice soft touch around the rim but they are different kinds of offensive players.
In fact Kelly's offense is much better for the overall team (creates spacing inside, drags big men defenders out of the paint), but he's a less talented version of Bargani at this point. Still got 3 or 4 years till his prime though.

[Who]

He's 24 already.  He's probably not getting much better.  Poor man's Andrea Bargnani if he ever gets starter minutes (34+). 

Barg at the same age averaged 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 block on 47%/37%/77% shooting

Diff is Barg got 35 mins and Oly got 22 min.

Per-36 Barg - 17.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 blocks, 47%/37%/77%
Per-36 Oly - 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 47%/35%/68%

Poor Man's Bargnani? 

Olynyk is not far off Bargnani as a scorer (at least on a per minute basis) but he's a far better passer and rebounder. 

People seem to forget that KO averaged almost as many rebounds than Sully last year on a Per-minute basis (something like 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes).  He's a much better rebounder than people give him credit for, especially as an offensive rebounder (where he's borderline elite).

They're different kinds of offense though. Bargani gives you those points via ISOs and some set up three pointers from ball movement. Olynyk gets basically 95% of his points from just standing on the perimeter as the ball swings whilst our guards dish. He's got nice soft touch around the rim but they are different kinds of offensive players.
In fact Kelly's offense is much better for the overall team (creates spacing inside, drags big men defenders out of the paint), but he's a less talented version of Bargani at this point. Still got 3 or 4 years till his prime though.

Bargnani was the same (scoring wise). He scored overwhelming majority of his points from shots setup by other players. He created very little of his own offense. He was always more of a 3rd/4th option than a 1st/2nd option because of his inability to create his own offense.

[colincb]

He's 24 already.  He's probably not getting much better.  Poor man's Andrea Bargnani if he ever gets starter minutes (34+). 

Barg at the same age averaged 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 block on 47%/37%/77% shooting

Diff is Barg got 35 mins and Oly got 22 min.

Per-36 Barg - 17.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 blocks, 47%/37%/77%
Per-36 Oly - 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 47%/35%/68%

Poor Man's Bargnani? 

Olynyk is not far off Bargnani as a scorer (at least on a per minute basis) but he's a far better passer and rebounder. 

People seem to forget that KO averaged almost as many rebounds than Sully last year on a Per-minute basis (something like 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes).  He's a much better rebounder than people give him credit for, especially as an offensive rebounder (where he's borderline elite).

They're different kinds of offense though. Bargani gives you those points via ISOs and some set up three pointers from ball movement. Olynyk gets basically 95% of his points from just standing on the perimeter as the ball swings whilst our guards dish. He's got nice soft touch around the rim but they are different kinds of offensive players.
In fact Kelly's offense is much better for the overall team (creates spacing inside, drags big men defenders out of the paint), but he's a less talented version of Bargani at this point. Still got 3 or 4 years till his prime though.

Bargnani was the same. He scored overwhelming majority of his points from shots setup by other players. He created very little of his own offense. He was always more of a 3rd/4th option than a 1st/2nd option because of his inability to create his own offense.

KO is also a much better defender than Bargs both by the numbers and eyeball test. Bargs is bad a defender as I've seen for a guy that's been around for a while.

[jeezem]

he's such a strange player, trips over his own feet sometimes, but does some really good things for stretches.  makes me wonder what would happen if you ran pick and rolls with him and IT, but start the ball with KO.  KO either gets a jump shot, or IT gets a free pass drive to the basket.

[BDeCosta26]

Sorry, posted in wrong thread

[Who]

He's 24 already.  He's probably not getting much better.  Poor man's Andrea Bargnani if he ever gets starter minutes (34+). 

Barg at the same age averaged 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 block on 47%/37%/77% shooting

Diff is Barg got 35 mins and Oly got 22 min.

Per-36 Barg - 17.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 blocks, 47%/37%/77%
Per-36 Oly - 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 47%/35%/68%

Poor Man's Bargnani? 

Olynyk is not far off Bargnani as a scorer (at least on a per minute basis) but he's a far better passer and rebounder. 

People seem to forget that KO averaged almost as many rebounds than Sully last year on a Per-minute basis (something like 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes).  He's a much better rebounder than people give him credit for, especially as an offensive rebounder (where he's borderline elite).

They're different kinds of offense though. Bargani gives you those points via ISOs and some set up three pointers from ball movement. Olynyk gets basically 95% of his points from just standing on the perimeter as the ball swings whilst our guards dish. He's got nice soft touch around the rim but they are different kinds of offensive players.
In fact Kelly's offense is much better for the overall team (creates spacing inside, drags big men defenders out of the paint), but he's a less talented version of Bargani at this point. Still got 3 or 4 years till his prime though.

Bargnani was the same. He scored overwhelming majority of his points from shots setup by other players. He created very little of his own offense. He was always more of a 3rd/4th option than a 1st/2nd option because of his inability to create his own offense.

KO is also a much better defender than Bargs both by the numbers and eyeball test. Bargs is bad a defender as I've seen for a guy that's been around for a while.

I agree.

Bargnani had better physical tools than Olynyk. He was stronger and more able to bang. He had better lateral quickness. He had real genuine length. He had the physical capacity to be a good defensive player but ... he always felt defense & rebounding was beneath him. That he was a scorer and that was his role. Defense & rebounding was for role players.

The one guy in Toronto that was really trying to teach Bargnani and get through to him about playing defense & rebounding was Sam Mitchell who refused to give him extended court time until Bargnani's effort levels improved defensively. So what does Bryan Colangelo do? Fires the only guy in the organization trying to teach Bargnani about defense, installs Jay Triano and immediately puts Bargnani in for 35mpg to get his 16-18ppg. Essentially reinforcing Bargnani's belief that he doesn't need to play defense. Stupid Raptors organization.

It's a shame nobody could ever get through to Bargnani and make him see the light about the importance of defense & rebounding. He had the physical capacity to be a good defender (much more so than Olynyk).

Anyway, yes, fully agree. Olynyk is definitely better both defensively and rebounding wise than Bargnani because Bargnani's lack of application.

[Eja117]

Brandon Bass?

[clover]

Brandon Bass?

He's already there.

[clover]

KO has the work/game ethic of Jeff Green.

That's clearly not true. He's always scrambling in the game doing lots of little, team-oriented things. And when he got benched this season Stevens waxed eloquent about how hard he was continuing to work off the court and that he wanted to be great.

Now, it's not a great statement about any of the young guys that Bass is still apparently the hardest worker on the team, however...

[clover]

I still wonder whether Olynyk should try and beef up and become a Bill Laimbeer type center. Non-athletic, non shot-blocker, position based defender, rebounder and high post offensive facilitator (shooter & passer).

I've started to wonder that too. He seems to be getting the hang of some of that down low D, and a center who can shoot the 3 the way he can really screws up opponents' slower centers.

[GreenWarrior]

next yr. is the cut off for Olynyk. if he doesn't show some consistency in anything he does, then no more time should be dedicated to his development.

I think this "Kelly needs to beef up to be a better defender" theory is somewhat false. while yes he needs to add more muscle weight so he doesn't get man handled down low, but with Kelly it's his demeanor that is comparable to Jeff Green. he's not intimidating and never will be, this is something you just have. 9 yrs. and people are still waiting for this from Jeff Green....hopefully they aren't holding their breath. so holding out hope that a beefier KO will result in a Bill Laimber type player is futile imo. that's never happening.

and this is why I say KO needs to show us who he is next yr. because I know nothing about this guy. maybe he's better off playing for the Raptors next yr. because those are the only games I've seen the player I hoped we got.

me personally I would rather see KO get the shots that AB takes. AB should not have plays run for him, he should not dribble & should only take shots that are wide open and/or as a result of dribble penetration. 

[hwangjini_1]

He's 24 already.  He's probably not getting much better.  Poor man's Andrea Bargnani if he ever gets starter minutes (34+). 

Barg at the same age averaged 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 block on 47%/37%/77% shooting

Diff is Barg got 35 mins and Oly got 22 min.

Per-36 Barg - 17.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 blocks, 47%/37%/77%
Per-36 Oly - 16.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 47%/35%/68%

Poor Man's Bargnani? 

Olynyk is not far off Bargnani as a scorer (at least on a per minute basis) but he's a far better passer and rebounder. 

People seem to forget that KO averaged almost as many rebounds than Sully last year on a Per-minute basis (something like 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes).  He's a much better rebounder than people give him credit for, especially as an offensive rebounder (where he's borderline elite).

They're different kinds of offense though. Bargani gives you those points via ISOs and some set up three pointers from ball movement. Olynyk gets basically 95% of his points from just standing on the perimeter as the ball swings whilst our guards dish. He's got nice soft touch around the rim but they are different kinds of offensive players.
In fact Kelly's offense is much better for the overall team (creates spacing inside, drags big men defenders out of the paint), but he's a less talented version of Bargani at this point. Still got 3 or 4 years till his prime though.

just for reference, during the 2014-15 season, olly's shot chart shows the following number of shots made by area:

35 beyond the 3 point arc
24 mid-range
115 paint

clearly, olly's number one scoring location is in the paint.

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/player/1573/kelly-olynyk/shotchart/

[Boris Badenov]

Olynyk's been pretty much the same player for two full seasons and he's 24. A better question might be "when will he start to decline"?

Did you guys not see how rapidly Olynyk improved last year after the all-star break versus before the all star break?  He made massive strides.

He improved from the first half of his rookie season to the second half of that season. I think that's to be expected.

But he was an old rookie, and most NBA players don't get much better past the age of 24.

http://basketballnumbers.com/2010/08/12/age-productivity-model-for-the-nba-revisited/

You see  a gradual increase up to about 24 and then players remain at a consistent level across until they hit a gradual decline at 30.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703478704574612553424283372

NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining,...

[littleteapot]

Olynyk's been pretty much the same player for two full seasons and he's 24. A better question might be "when will he start to decline"?

Did you guys not see how rapidly Olynyk improved last year after the all-star break versus before the all star break?  He made massive strides.

He improved from the first half of his rookie season to the second half of that season. I think that's to be expected.

But he was an old rookie, and most NBA players don't get much better past the age of 24.

http://basketballnumbers.com/2010/08/12/age-productivity-model-for-the-nba-revisited/

You see  a gradual increase up to about 24 and then players remain at a consistent level across until they hit a gradual decline at 30.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703478704574612553424283372

NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining,...

I do think the Olynyk's potential at this point is limited, but that data may not apply to him, because the average 24 year old in the nba has been in the nba for longer than him. By 24 most guys in the nba have had years to develop in the nba whereas he hasn't.

Overall though, I do think he is very unlikely to be more than a 15-20 minute bench player on a good team and honestly wouldn't be shocked if he's not even a rotation player in a few years. He's undertalented and I think the glue is drying for him on a lot of the stuff people have been talking about here - I think if he tried to drastically change his body type at 24 it would be a desperation move, and he simply doesn't have the instincts to make the most of the talent he does have.

[Fred Roberts]

one big game tomorrow and everyone's tune changes.  Brad and Danny believe,  so there's that. It seems like he needs to be more of the focal point on offense,  either shooting or facilitating others.  Let's see if he can get hot.