Author Topic: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP  (Read 14582 times)

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Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #30 on: April 25, 2015, 04:39:10 PM »

Offline mahcus smaht

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Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.
I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.
Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.
Wow you and I have very different views on Brooklyn next season it appears. I think Brooklyn is going to be 2x worse than this year and a top 10 pick.
Its too early to tell with the Brooklyn picks.
Lopez could  come back, Miami could fall apart, Indiana is getting old they could feasibly fall apart, Toronto could tank. Bogdanavich, Young, Lopez could all have career years. If all that happens I would say Brooklyn still picks no later than 16 or 17.

I expect them to finish behind the current 1-7 seeds, Miami, Indiana, probably Charlotte and one of Orlando, New York , or Detroit. Even if none of the last 4 are better that puts them as a 10 seed in the East which is currently the 9th best draft odds.

I think anywhere from about 5-18 is within the realm of possibility but I expect them to wind up in the 7-12 range.

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2015, 04:53:56 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.
I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.
Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.
Wow you and I have very different views on Brooklyn next season it appears. I think Brooklyn is going to be 2x worse than this year and a top 10 pick.

Why?

I'm not even convinced the 2016 Brooklyn pick will be better than our 2016 (top 7 protected) Dallas pick.

For what reason are you so convinced Brooklyn will be 2x worse next year?  Seems completely baseless.  They were better towards the end of the season after adding Thaddeus.  They finished the season at a pace that would have made them the 2nd seed in the East.  Are you banking on Lopez getting injured again?  Is it a given that Thad and Brook opt out and leave Brooklyn empty-handed?

People need to stop talking about that 2016 Brooklyn pick like it's certified gold.  For Philly to trade Nerlens Noel for a #16 pick and for what looks like a mid 2016 1st from Brooklyn is the equivalent of Boston trading Marcus Smart to Philly for their 2016 Oklahoma Thunder pick.  Completely nonsensical. 
« Last Edit: April 25, 2015, 04:59:51 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2015, 05:53:00 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2015, 06:01:10 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.
Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season. 

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #34 on: April 25, 2015, 06:24:31 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.
I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.
Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.
Wow you and I have very different views on Brooklyn next season it appears. I think Brooklyn is going to be 2x worse than this year and a top 10 pick.
Its too early to tell with the Brooklyn picks.
Lopez could  come back, Miami could fall apart, Indiana is getting old they could feasibly fall apart, Toronto could tank. Bogdanavich, Young, Lopez could all have career years. If all that happens I would say Brooklyn still picks no later than 16 or 17.

I expect them to finish behind the current 1-7 seeds, Miami, Indiana, probably Charlotte and one of Orlando, New York , or Detroit. Even if none of the last 4 are better that puts them as a 10 seed in the East which is currently the 9th best draft odds.

I think anywhere from about 5-18 is within the realm of possibility but I expect them to wind up in the 7-12 range.

Sounds about right. I would be VERY surprised if their back in the playoffs next year. The east will be much better and they'll be worse whether they keep Lopez/Young or not. D-Will is falling off a cliff, Johnson is 38 and they just can't sign/Draft anyone who will make them improve. Top 12 seems like a pretty safe bet

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #35 on: April 25, 2015, 06:52:49 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.
Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.
I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #36 on: April 26, 2015, 12:22:07 AM »

Offline Smitty77

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This truly makes me HOPE we throw a MAX off at Draymond.  Golden State is already at almost $79 million for next year with ONLY 8 players inked.  He can be had.  Then make a push for Noel and see IF we can pry him or Embiid from Philly.  Wow, that would be a heck of a defensive team with Smart, Green, Bradley, and Noel or Embiid (or trade up for Cauley-Stein).  Not much offense, but IT and Bradley and Draymond can score:-))

Thoughts??

Smitty77

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #37 on: April 26, 2015, 12:30:33 AM »

Offline mahcus smaht

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This truly makes me HOPE we throw a MAX off at Draymond.  Golden State is already at almost $79 million for next year with ONLY 8 players inked.  He can be had.  Then make a push for Noel and see IF we can pry him or Embiid from Philly.  Wow, that would be a heck of a defensive team with Smart, Green, Bradley, and Noel or Embiid (or trade up for Cauley-Stein).  Not much offense, but IT and Bradley and Draymond can score:-))

Thoughts??

Smitty77
I haven't watched enough gsw to make an educated statement but from what I've heard/seen green gets most of his offense of a product of playing next to steph and Kay. Also I think GSW brass knows how valuable to them he is. I think they'll do the max and try to figure out a way to move lee and other contracts.

He was right there for dpoy but he's never stood out to me in the few times I've seen him.

Can he create any of his own offense?
Can he really defend 4 positions?

From my little knowledge I think gsw will match anything and I also don't think he'd be nearly as valuable to us as he is to GSW

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #38 on: April 26, 2015, 01:04:11 AM »

Offline GratefulCs

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As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.
Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.
so....



Who are we picking with the number one overall pick?



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I trust Danny Ainge

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #39 on: April 26, 2015, 01:21:27 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.
Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.
I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?
No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year. 

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #40 on: April 26, 2015, 01:27:14 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.
Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.
I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?
No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year.
Wish people would read the full post before replying. Not doing so makes a reply meaningless too often.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2015, 02:10:15 AM by Csfan1984 »

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #41 on: April 26, 2015, 01:32:38 AM »

Offline GreenPride17

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Off topic but speaking of Jabari Parker as someone mentioned on here why don't we try to trade for him instead of trading up for this draft, he is worth the risk because he could be the "Star" Scorer the Celtics need and could play both of the forward positions

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #42 on: April 26, 2015, 01:41:48 AM »

Offline Smartacus

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I think Marcus Smart shows really well here. I think as he develops, he will force offensive players to shoot the shots he wants them to. Also, can you imagine if he had a rim protector behind him? His worst stat would immediately be elevated.

Well done, informative post. The username is definitely relevant.

Looks like if I'm reading this correctly Smart is elite at defending the 3 point line and very strong for a guard around the basket, kind of like how prime Dwayne Wade was as a defender. Could I make a request to see how Elfrid Payton stacks up in these metrics since there been so much contention about him vs Smart on this board?

Your wish is my command.

Smart
•   2.63 StealsP48M, 11th in the NBA
•   .48 BlocksP48M, 169th in the NBA
•   2.08 DRPM, 51st in the NBA
•   47.9% OFG% at the rim, 28th in the NBA
•   57.9% OFG% 0-8 feet, 14th in the NBA
•   40.1% OFG% 8-16 feet, 44th in the NBA
•   39.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 60th in the NBA
•   32.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 5th in the NBA
•   +.7% Overall Differential

Payton
•   2.74 StealsP48M, 9th in the NBA
•   .39 BlocksP48M, 193rd in the NBA
•   .89 DRPM, 120th in the NBA
•   57.9% OFG% at the rim, 122nd in the NBA
•   57.2% OFG% 0-8 feet, 193rd in the NBA
•   41.2% OFG% 8-16 feet, 137th in the NBA
•   38% OFG% 16-24 feet, 54th in the NBA
•   38.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 214th in the NBA
•   +3.9% Overall Differential

Payton may get a lot of steals, but players generally shoot well against him, get to the basket at will against him, and shoot the three pretty well against him. Players shoot against Payton a lot like they shoot against Lavine, although Lavine is a worse scheme defender and stealer.

Many Thanks!

Glad to see that's stats confirm what the eyes are telling me. I really like Elfrid Payton, think he'll have a great career especially if he can land in the right situation like Rondo did. But when people act like he and Smart are in the same class defensively it just doesn't hold water. 

Better scorer? At the moment probably. Better passer? Maybe. Better Defender? Not even in the same building as Smart.

Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #43 on: April 26, 2015, 01:56:27 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Peyton is not a better scorer than Smart.

Tons of guards come into the league each year who can put up 15-20 points in games by driving into the paint against opponents who don't care and don't fear that player's team.

What matters so much in today's league is whether you can defend your position at a high level and whether you can shoot from outside and get to the free throw line. 

Smart can already shoot well enough from outside and defend to get substantial minutes on a playoff team (albeit a poor one).  He's shown some signs of being able to get to the line, although right now he mostly gets free throws by kicking his leg out on three point attempts.


I have much less faith in Peyton's ability to fix his jumper from deep and from the free throw line than I do in Smart's ability to get to the line in the pros half as well as he did in college.
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Re: Advanced Stats Defensive MVP
« Reply #44 on: April 26, 2015, 02:22:48 AM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.
Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.

You know who needs a 26mil expiring contract more than anybody?.....

Brooklyn. If D-Will or Johnson were gonna be moved you figure it would be this past season. Sure, as expirings they're easier to move but only a few teams have the need for cap space with the cap exploding and the requisite dead money or trade exceptions to send back in a deal, and no one is sending anybody of real value back for Williams or Johnson. Besides, if you were Brooklyn, why would you wanna move Johnson's deal? Your gonna have him finally coming off your books which equals 26 million in cap space you didn't have before. The only shot they have of not being a bottom 5 team the next few years is via free agency. They're better off riding that deal out, especially if they're looking to sell.

Because of that I think ISO Joe stays, and the '16 Brooklyn pick stands, as of right now at least, our bet chance at a lottery pick from them. Top 12 sounds about right. They literally can't sign anyone or draft anyone higher than #30 unless Lopez opts out and even if he does, are they gonna sign someone better than him with that money? Doubt it. Brooklyn made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. Even more so than the C's. And at least we did it with a group of guys no older than 29. They have no where to go but down unless they pull a rabbit out their butt.