Advanced Stats Defensive MVP

[crimson_stallion]

The guys that really jump off the page statistically for me are Gobert, Davis and Noel. For Noel to be top 30 in 6 categories and no worse than 96th in the league in any of the categories shown is remarkable for a rookie.

Now just imagine if you had Noel and Smart on the court together - wow.  Greatest defensive rookie combo of this generation? Probably. 

Although I still don't really believe in considering guys like Noel rookies.  I know he didn't play a game last year, but he still got to be around NBA players, attend the practices, listen to advice from NBA players, etc.  It gives you an immediate advantage over the new rookies who come in.   

[Csfan1984]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

My question is, if we have to use any of the Brooklyn picks to make a move, which one do we use? I'd prob wanna keep the 2016 1st because whether or not Lopez opts out that pick looks like it's gonna be lottery. The 2018 pick is too far away to predict. Knowing the Nets that could be a top 5 pick. But it could be in the 20s too, and it's a pretty safe bet the 2016 1St won't be that low.

Well I feel that is a ridiculous price for Noel. C's can just trade 16, 28 and lower 2nd for WCS. We have to think market price with WCS and all the FA big man this offseason. Let's also not forget Brimah and a up to 5  other rim protector bigs are coming out in 2016. Philly can't over value Noel.

I do however think no mater what Philly wants the 2016 Brooklyn pick in any trade. They have to be all in on the top 3 guys of 2016. That means scoring any potential lottery pick available. Top of 2016 draft looks better than this year though this year is deeper right now.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The guys that really jump off the page statistically for me are Gobert, Davis and Noel. For Noel to be top 30 in 6 categories and no worse than 96th in the league in any of the categories shown is remarkable for a rookie.

Wondering why a defensive stat such as defensive rebounding percentage isn't included in determining DPOY statistically? I would think after watching the last three Celtics games that we as a blog could agree that defensive rebounding is an important stat?

I just learned to make sure to copy my posts before i send them. My login timed out and I lost an entire post including rebounding percentages and defensive rebounds per game.

All of the big men showed well except Noel, who had a really poor rebounds per chance percentage. This did not help any of the guards much.

But Green and Leonard again jumped off the page. He averages 6.7 DRPG and Leonard had 5.9 DRPG. Leonard had 70.2% rebounding percentage. Green had 65.9%.

[colincb]

The guys that really jump off the page statistically for me are Gobert, Davis and Noel. For Noel to be top 30 in 6 categories and no worse than 96th in the league in any of the categories shown is remarkable for a rookie.

Wondering why a defensive stat such as defensive rebounding percentage isn't included in determining DPOY statistically? I would think after watching the last three Celtics games that we as a blog could agree that defensive rebounding is an important stat?

I just learned to make sure to copy my posts before i send them. My login timed out and I lost an entire post including rebounding percentages and defensive rebounds per game.

All of the big men showed well except Noel, who had a really poor rebounds per chance percentage. This did not help any of the guards much.

But Green and Leonard again jumped off the page. He averages 6.7 DRPG and Leonard had 5.9 DRPG. Leonard had 70.2% rebounding percentage. Green had 65.9%.

TP for the nice thread and work you did.

Where are you pulling your stats from? BB Reference?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The guys that really jump off the page statistically for me are Gobert, Davis and Noel. For Noel to be top 30 in 6 categories and no worse than 96th in the league in any of the categories shown is remarkable for a rookie.

Wondering why a defensive stat such as defensive rebounding percentage isn't included in determining DPOY statistically? I would think after watching the last three Celtics games that we as a blog could agree that defensive rebounding is an important stat?

I just learned to make sure to copy my posts before i send them. My login timed out and I lost an entire post including rebounding percentages and defensive rebounds per game.

All of the big men showed well except Noel, who had a really poor rebounds per chance percentage. This did not help any of the guards much.

But Green and Leonard again jumped off the page. He averages 6.7 DRPG and Leonard had 5.9 DRPG. Leonard had 70.2% rebounding percentage. Green had 65.9%.

TP for the nice thread and work you did.

Where are you pulling your stats from? BB Reference?

ESPN for per 48 minutes stats and DRPM. NBA.com for player tracking stats like opponents fg% and rebounding. There are some other ones that i use and are helpful, especially as I look at Celtic players, but they are a bit more obscure and not as important as the ones i listed here.

[GreenWarrior]

how come I don't see Bradley anywhere on that list?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

how come I don't see Bradley anywhere on that list?

Because his defense is not up to the level of other guys on that list.

[LarBrd33]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s. 

[Csfan1984]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.

[GreenWarrior]

how come I don't see Bradley anywhere on that list?

Because his defense is not up to the level of other guys on that list.

but, if his offense isn't worth anything and his "D" that get's all this praise doesn't even put him in the ballpark of this list? what's the fascination with him? and why is he worth the time n' money?

[Ilikesports17]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

Why do people say Noel is a PF? I get that he can defend all over the court but his offensive game and shot blocking prowess seem more like that of a center. It looks to me like he could be KG without that deadly midrange J, but I felt like KG was only a PF because of the midrange J.

Most concede that most of his O will come from dunks and alley oops and that sounds more like a center than a PF.

Also im not sure if he has superstar potential. I think he can be a star but his Offense and rebounding abilities are too far away for me to put him in the potential superstar category.

I see him as KG like on D, but not the rebounder, not half the offensive player, and most likely not half the leader.

[Csfan1984]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

Why do people say Noel is a PF? I get that he can defend all over the court but his offensive game and shot blocking prowess seem more like that of a center. It looks to me like he could be KG without that deadly midrange J, but I felt like KG was only a PF because of the midrange J.

Most concede that most of his O will come from dunks and alley oops and that sounds more like a center than a PF.

No one believes he is they are saying he has to play PF if you have Embid. Most hate the idea of Noel at PF and Philly if wise will not try to do that. If Embid is healthy he is a legit 2 way player and possible super star. Noel is the guy out as he is just a defensive dynamo at Center.

[LarBrd33]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.

Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.

[Csfan1984]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.

Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.

Wow you and I have very different views on Brooklyn next season it appears. I think Brooklyn is going to be 2x worse than this year and a top 10 pick.

[Csfan1984]

Now that you know I think Brooklyn pick is top 10 if you thought as I do could you see that position for Philly?

As in Philly wanting the Brooklyn 2015 top 10 because they would pair that with Embid, their high 1st this year to take Winslow/Russell/Mudiay, 16 Oubre/Booker, 33. Ushaw, Philly and Brooklyn lotto shots are at least two top tens in 2016 (Lab and/or Simmons shot).
I see it as Embid, (great shot for)Lab/Simmons, Winslow, Booker, Newman, Upshaw> Embid, (good shot at)Lab, Winslow, Smart, Booker,Woods