Advanced Stats Defensive MVP

[tazzmaniac]

As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.

Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.

I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?

No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year.

Wish people would read the full post before replying. Not doing so makes a reply meaningless too often.

I did read your post.  It made little sense from a Philly perspective.  Why would Philly trade Noel now?  He's their only established asset.  He's already established himself as a very good defensive center.  If Embiid busts, Noel will be their starting center for many years.  If Noel/Embiid works well together, they would have a dominating front court for many years.  There is absolutely no reason for them to trade Noel this year unless they get an extremely good offer.  The #16 this year and a top ten next year isn't nearly good enough. 

Philly has plenty of picks already.  They'll have their own top5 pick and 5 seconds this year.  They will likely have 4 1sts in next year's draft.  Their own and the Laker's pick are probable top 10 picks plus the Miami and OKC picks. 

[colincb]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.

Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.

Noel may turn out to be a good player, but I think you're the first I've seen to label him as having the potential to be a superstar, not that your over-hyping a player on another team at the expense of players on the Cs team should surprise anyone on CBlog. Noel's a surprisingly weak rebounder for a center, a poor offensive player, and he isn't a fit on his current team once Embiid starts playing. He may well get better offensively, but the ceiling comps I most hear are to Camby who has to buy a ticket to get into the HOF. There seems to be quite a few posters in the Sixers sites/forums I've strolled through that sense he's not there long-term which isn't what you'd expect for a superstar, even in the city of brotherly love (which must be the greatest misnomer in the history of man. The spirit of Philly fans is perhaps best captured by their famous booing of Santa Claus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWvza6en5Rg).

[LarBrd33]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.

Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.

Noel may turn out to be a good player, but I think you're the first I've seen to label him as having the potential to be a superstar, not that your over-hyping a player on another team at the expense of players on the Cs team should surprise anyone on CBlog.

As a rookie coming off a major injury he is already one of the 10 best defensive players in the league.  Elite defensive bigs and elite scorers are probably the two most valuable player types in the NBA.   The idea that Philly would get rid of a prospect like Noel for a couple mid 1sts is ridiculous.  It would be like Boston trading Marcus Smart this summer to Philly for Oklahoma's 2016 top 15 protected pick.  Why do it?  If Philly finds it necessary to trade one of their bigs, they can just trade down a couple picks and get Mudiay/Russell.  Or they can trade for a borderline all-star like Demar Derozan.  Or they can trade for another top-level prospect like Jabari Parker.  Maybe they'd trade for Marcus Smart, #16 and Brooklyn's 2016 1st.  Doubt it, though.

[PhoSita]

The most common comparison I've seen people use with Noel is Theo Ratliff.

Ratliff was a valuable player for a number of years.  Fun fact -- one year Theo actually played 85 games in a season because he was traded midway through.

Still, Theo never had more than 6.7 Win Shares in a season, and he was never more than a very nice defensive player.

[colincb]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

Noel wouldn't get traded for anything less than Marcus Smart and both our 2015 1sts.   You don't trade a 20 year old elite defensive center with superstar potential.   There's no reality where they trade him for a couple mid-1sts.  That's like Boston trading Marcus Smart for a couple picks in the 20s.

I know you love Noel and keep throwing out Smart's name as the guy to add but isn't Brooklyn 2016, Celtics 2015 #16 and the #33rd pick more valuable to Philly than Smart, 16 and 28? I think Philly has to be dying for a chance at Simmons, Brown and Lab. Brooklyn will be in the lottery next year.

Brooklyn's 2016... that's gonna be a mid 1st most likely.

You're telling me that a #15, #16 and #33 is more valuable than Smart, #16 and #28? 

So  in other words, if someone offers us #15 and #33 for Smart and #28, you're taking it?  Lol... there would be riots in Boston.

And I don't "love" Noel anymore than I "loved" Drummond when I pointed out Detroit wouldn't trade him for Rajon Rondo.    You aren't getting Nerlens Noel for a few crappy draft picks.  You'd have a better shot trading a bunch of crappy draft picks for Jabari Parker.   

I'd argue that at this point Nerlens has more trade value than Parker.  Actually, that's not a bad trade idea if Philly ends up with too many bigs.   They can send one to the Bucks for Jabari Parker.  Gives Philly a scorer to pair with the bigs and gives the Bucks a star big man prospect to pair with MCW, Giannis, etc. 

When Philly has options like that, I assure you they aren't taking a pu-pu-platter of mid-tier draft picks from Boston.

Noel may turn out to be a good player, but I think you're the first I've seen to label him as having the potential to be a superstar, not that your over-hyping a player on another team at the expense of players on the Cs team should surprise anyone on CBlog.

As a rookie coming off a major injury he is already one of the 10 best defensive players in the league.  Elite defensive bigs and elite scorers are probably the two most valuable player types in the NBA.   The idea that Philly would get rid of a prospect like Noel for a couple mid 1sts is ridiculous.  It would be like Boston trading Marcus Smart this summer to Philly for Oklahoma's 2016 top 15 protected pick.  Why do it?  If Philly finds it necessary to trade one of their bigs, they can just trade down a couple picks and get Mudiay/Russell.  Or they can trade for a borderline all-star like Demar Derozan.  Or they can trade for another top-level prospect like Jabari Parker.  Maybe they'd trade for Marcus Smart, #16 and Brooklyn's 2016 1st.  Doubt it, though.

Again, you excerpted my post and clearly didn't speak to it.

FWIW, the Sixers have been associated with both the PGs at the top of the draft. I'd be surprised if they don't pick one and if necessary make a trade down if they should win the lottery.

[Csfan1984]

As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.

Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.

I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?

No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year.

Wish people would read the full post before replying. Not doing so makes a reply meaningless too often.

I did read your post.  It made little sense from a Philly perspective.  Why would Philly trade Noel now?  He's their only established asset.  He's already established himself as a very good defensive center.  If Embiid busts, Noel will be their starting center for many years.  If Noel/Embiid works well together, they would have a dominating front court for many years.  There is absolutely no reason for them to trade Noel this year unless they get an extremely good offer.  The #16 this year and a top ten next year isn't nearly good enough. 

Philly has plenty of picks already.  They'll have their own top5 pick and 5 seconds this year.  They will likely have 4 1sts in next year's draft.  Their own and the Laker's pick are probable top 10 picks plus the Miami and OKC picks.

No you didn't because you called it a mid round pick. And went on a rant about Noel for mid round 1st

[celtics2030]

I think Marcus Smart shows really well here. I think as he develops, he will force offensive players to shoot the shots he wants them to. Also, can you imagine if he had a rim protector behind him? His worst stat would immediately be elevated.

Well done, informative post. The username is definitely relevant.

Looks like if I'm reading this correctly Smart is elite at defending the 3 point line and very strong for a guard around the basket, kind of like how prime Dwayne Wade was as a defender. Could I make a request to see how Elfrid Payton stacks up in these metrics since there been so much contention about him vs Smart on this board?

Your wish is my command.

Smart
•   2.63 StealsP48M, 11th in the NBA
•   .48 BlocksP48M, 169th in the NBA
•   2.08 DRPM, 51st in the NBA
•   47.9% OFG% at the rim, 28th in the NBA
•   57.9% OFG% 0-8 feet, 14th in the NBA
•   40.1% OFG% 8-16 feet, 44th in the NBA
•   39.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 60th in the NBA
•   32.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 5th in the NBA
•   +.7% Overall Differential

Payton
•   2.74 StealsP48M, 9th in the NBA
•   .39 BlocksP48M, 193rd in the NBA
•   .89 DRPM, 120th in the NBA
•   57.9% OFG% at the rim, 122nd in the NBA
•   57.2% OFG% 0-8 feet, 193rd in the NBA
•   41.2% OFG% 8-16 feet, 137th in the NBA
•   38% OFG% 16-24 feet, 54th in the NBA
•   38.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 214th in the NBA
•   +3.9% Overall Differential

Payton may get a lot of steals, but players generally shoot well against him, get to the basket at will against him, and shoot the three pretty well against him. Players shoot against Payton a lot like they shoot against Lavine, although Lavine is a worse scheme defender and stealer.

Many Thanks!

Glad to see that's stats confirm what the eyes are telling me. I really like Elfrid Payton, think he'll have a great career especially if he can land in the right situation like Rondo did. But when people act like he and Smart are in the same class defensively it just doesn't hold water. 

Better scorer? At the moment probably. Better passer? Maybe. Better Defender? Not even in the same building as Smart.

This is whats funny about Celticsblog, they are totally homeristic.

MAYBE, are you kidding, If Smart is that much better at defense, than Payton is way better at passing, not only passing but as a point guard who does the slashing, getting to the rim, getting to the line, finishing, ALL THOSE ARE BETTER than SMART, who will probably never be as good.

Defense , yes Smart is better, but not really in the scheme of things. Smart will have to play offense , and as a point guard, that will be a big challenge....To score, and lead the floor well.

[tazzmaniac]

As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.

Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.

I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?

No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year.

Wish people would read the full post before replying. Not doing so makes a reply meaningless too often.

I did read your post.  It made little sense from a Philly perspective.  Why would Philly trade Noel now?  He's their only established asset.  He's already established himself as a very good defensive center.  If Embiid busts, Noel will be their starting center for many years.  If Noel/Embiid works well together, they would have a dominating front court for many years.  There is absolutely no reason for them to trade Noel this year unless they get an extremely good offer.  The #16 this year and a top ten next year isn't nearly good enough. 

Philly has plenty of picks already.  They'll have their own top5 pick and 5 seconds this year.  They will likely have 4 1sts in next year's draft.  Their own and the Laker's pick are probable top 10 picks plus the Miami and OKC picks.

No you didn't because you called it a mid round pick. And went on a rant about Noel for mid round 1st

Hardly a rant and I said could end up being a couple mid 1sts which is accurate.  Good young defensive bigs are extremely valuable.  If we had Noel, I certainly wouldn't trade him for a #16 pick and a possible, or even a definite, top 10 pick next year. 

[Csfan1984]

As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.

Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.

I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?

No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year.

Wish people would read the full post before replying. Not doing so makes a reply meaningless too often.

I did read your post.  It made little sense from a Philly perspective.  Why would Philly trade Noel now?  He's their only established asset.  He's already established himself as a very good defensive center.  If Embiid busts, Noel will be their starting center for many years.  If Noel/Embiid works well together, they would have a dominating front court for many years.  There is absolutely no reason for them to trade Noel this year unless they get an extremely good offer.  The #16 this year and a top ten next year isn't nearly good enough. 

Philly has plenty of picks already.  They'll have their own top5 pick and 5 seconds this year.  They will likely have 4 1sts in next year's draft.  Their own and the Laker's pick are probable top 10 picks plus the Miami and OKC picks.

No you didn't because you called it a mid round pick. And went on a rant about Noel for mid round 1st

Hardly a rant and I said could end up being a couple mid 1sts which is accurate.  Good young defensive bigs are extremely valuable.  If we had Noel, I certainly wouldn't trade him for a #16 pick and a possible, or even a definite, top 10 pick next year.

If not for 16 and a definite top ten then I think you are over valuing Noel and not in touch with the 2016 draft or 2015 market. 2016s two best players are true PFs. Noel and Embid isnt goin to work. Also likely Qi, Delio, Brimah and Poetlt good defensive bigs come out. Add in all the bigs via this draft and FA. If you are tanking for a super star you sell Noel now. Get Embid , Lab, Winslow, Booker and Newman together.

Hell, I have even changed my mind. I want Cs to tank and use Brooklyn and own pick for two shots at Lab/Simmons. Be hilarious if Philly loses out on Lab and Simmons next year.

[tazzmaniac]

As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.

Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.

I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?

No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year.

Wish people would read the full post before replying. Not doing so makes a reply meaningless too often.

I did read your post.  It made little sense from a Philly perspective.  Why would Philly trade Noel now?  He's their only established asset.  He's already established himself as a very good defensive center.  If Embiid busts, Noel will be their starting center for many years.  If Noel/Embiid works well together, they would have a dominating front court for many years.  There is absolutely no reason for them to trade Noel this year unless they get an extremely good offer.  The #16 this year and a top ten next year isn't nearly good enough. 

Philly has plenty of picks already.  They'll have their own top5 pick and 5 seconds this year.  They will likely have 4 1sts in next year's draft.  Their own and the Laker's pick are probable top 10 picks plus the Miami and OKC picks.

No you didn't because you called it a mid round pick. And went on a rant about Noel for mid round 1st

Hardly a rant and I said could end up being a couple mid 1sts which is accurate.  Good young defensive bigs are extremely valuable.  If we had Noel, I certainly wouldn't trade him for a #16 pick and a possible, or even a definite, top 10 pick next year.

If not for 16 and a definite top ten then I think you are over valuing Noel and not in touch with the 2016 draft or 2015 market. 2016s two best players are true PFs. Noel and Embid isnt goin to work. Also likely Qi, Delio, Brimah and Poetlt good defensive bigs come out. Add in all the bigs via this draft and FA. If you are tanking for a super star you sell Noel now. Get Embid , Lab, Winslow, Booker and Newman together.

Hell, I have even changed my mind. I want Cs to tank and use Brooklyn and own pick for two shots at Lab/Simmons. Be hilarious if Philly loses out on Lab and Simmons next year.

Lab and Simmons are likely going to be top 3 picks next year.  Unless Lopez and Young leave, I doubt the Nets will be that bad.  If they finish with the 8th worst record that gives less than a 10% chance of becoming a top 3 pick.  That's not good enough to give up Noel for.  The Sixers will likely have two top 10 picks (their own and the Lakers) next year anyway. 

As for the other bigs you mention, I'd rather have Noel than any of them and Diallo is the only one that could potentially play PF next to Embiid.  I don't see why you are so dead certain that Noel/Embiid isn't going to work.  Noel will still be able to get 16-18 minutes playing backup center.  Noel should be quick enough to guard PFs.  Embiid has shooting range so that helps with the spacing offensively.  Even if it turns out Noel can't play PF, it is not going to hurt his trade value much.  The Sixers can always trade him after next season once they see how things play out. 

[Csfan1984]

As mentioned Lopez is bound to be hurt if not worse gone. JJ is declining, as is D-Will. Brooklyn is going to also look for expiring contracts or good deal contracts in case of sale or 2016 FA. I think Pacers, Magic, Heat, Lakers, Kings and Knicks all better than Nets next year. That puts Nets at bottom with Sixers, Wolves,  Cats, Pistons.

Tough to predict.  Brooklyn is a playoff team right now and I expect them to be a playoff team next year.  Who knows what they'll do.  Joe JOhnson is a 26 mil expiring contract they might want to shop around next season.

I understand your reservation about the pick.

Did you catch my post at end of page two on this thread? I am still wondering what you thought about if it was a top ten if you think it would be good for Philly?

No it wouldn't be good for Philly.  Embiid hasn't even played in a summer league game yet.  The Noel/Embiid combination hasn't even been tried out yet.  The Brooklyn pick could end up mid 1st next year.  Philly isn't going to trade Noel for what could end up being a couple mid 1sts especially to a division rival.  Philly will see how next season goes with Noel, Embiid and their top 5 pick this year.

Wish people would read the full post before replying. Not doing so makes a reply meaningless too often.

I did read your post.  It made little sense from a Philly perspective.  Why would Philly trade Noel now?  He's their only established asset.  He's already established himself as a very good defensive center.  If Embiid busts, Noel will be their starting center for many years.  If Noel/Embiid works well together, they would have a dominating front court for many years.  There is absolutely no reason for them to trade Noel this year unless they get an extremely good offer.  The #16 this year and a top ten next year isn't nearly good enough. 

Philly has plenty of picks already.  They'll have their own top5 pick and 5 seconds this year.  They will likely have 4 1sts in next year's draft.  Their own and the Laker's pick are probable top 10 picks plus the Miami and OKC picks.

No you didn't because you called it a mid round pick. And went on a rant about Noel for mid round 1st

Hardly a rant and I said could end up being a couple mid 1sts which is accurate.  Good young defensive bigs are extremely valuable.  If we had Noel, I certainly wouldn't trade him for a #16 pick and a possible, or even a definite, top 10 pick next year.

If not for 16 and a definite top ten then I think you are over valuing Noel and not in touch with the 2016 draft or 2015 market. 2016s two best players are true PFs. Noel and Embid isnt goin to work. Also likely Qi, Delio, Brimah and Poetlt good defensive bigs come out. Add in all the bigs via this draft and FA. If you are tanking for a super star you sell Noel now. Get Embid , Lab, Winslow, Booker and Newman together.

Hell, I have even changed my mind. I want Cs to tank and use Brooklyn and own pick for two shots at Lab/Simmons. Be hilarious if Philly loses out on Lab and Simmons next year.

Lab and Simmons are likely going to be top 3 picks next year.  Unless Lopez and Young leave, I doubt the Nets will be that bad.  If they finish with the 8th worst record that gives less than a 10% chance of becoming a top 3 pick.  That's not good enough to give up Noel for.  The Sixers will likely have two top 10 picks (their own and the Lakers) next year anyway. 

As for the other bigs you mention, I'd rather have Noel than any of them and Diallo is the only one that could potentially play PF next to Embiid.  I don't see why you are so dead certain that Noel/Embiid isn't going to work.  Noel will still be able to get 16-18 minutes playing backup center.  Noel should be quick enough to guard PFs.  Embiid has shooting range so that helps with the spacing offensively.  Even if it turns out Noel can't play PF, it is not going to hurt his trade value much.  The Sixers can always trade him after next season once they see how things play out.

I am certain because farther away Noel gets from basket worse he is. It would absolutely make him lose value because proves without a doubt he can't. Also 10% is a lot when you add their own pick in as well. You are probably at 20-35% for a top 3.

Again Im no longer even interested in Noel because C's need a star badly not a defensive center. C's need Lab or Simmons. They can the use a pick on Brimah. Cheaper and smarter then overpaying for Noel. Going to be a serious tank battle next year

[nickagneta]

I am always amazed when people discuss 17 year old kids who haven't played college ball yet as be certain stars and better options than real proven NBA players.

Before the draft, 2014 was supposed to be the best draft since Lebron. Hah!!!

Before the draft, 2013 was supposed to be the worst draft in recent times

Avery Bradley was the 2nd best prep player in the nation the year before he went to college. Is he some sort of star?

Miles Turner was the 3rd or 4th best player coming out of high school. Like Bradley he might not even be a top 10 pick after a year in school and he does not look like a guaranteed star. These are just two examples. The amount of top prep kids that bomb when it comes to the NBA is unbelievably high.

The thinking that a team would trade Nerlens Noel after the year he had in the league for a small chance to possibly have a shot at some kid who hasn't even played college yet is ridiculous. If you are Hinkie and you trade  Nerlens for a mid 1st this year and a chance at a possible top ten pick in 2016, you deserve to be fired.

Defense is half this game and Noel is a top 10 player in this league after just one year and he just turned 21. His value is way higher than some on this board think.