Advanced Stats Defensive MVP

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I thought it would be fun to dive into the advanced stats to determine who the real defensive MVP should be. I want to look at the top 13 players according to the voting results, plus 5 that I am interested in
Leonard, Green, Jordan, Davis, Gobert, Bogut, Allen, Duncan, MKG, Butler, Gasol, Noah, James
And
Noel, Ibaka, Smart, Middleton, and Matthews
•   StealsPer48Minutes, rank in the NBA
•   BlocksPer48Minutes, rank in the NBA
•   DefensiveRealPlusMinus, rank in the NBA – takes into account the overall defensive impact a player has, including teammates, shooting percentages, etc.
•   OpponentsFieldGoal% at the rim, rank in the NBA
•   OpponentsFieldGoal% from 0-8 feet, rank in the NBA
•   OpponentsFieldGoal% from 8-16 feet, rank in the NBA
•   OpponentsFieldGoal% from 16-24 feet, rank in the NBA
•   OpponentsFieldGoal% from 24+ feet, rank in the NBA
•   % Overall Differential – the difference between how players normally shoots and how they shoot against a particular defender. Negative means that players typically shoots worse against that defender. Negative is good.
Leonard
•   3.49 StealsP48M, 3rd in the NBA
•   1.3 BlocksP48M, 80th in the NBA
•   4.92 DRPM, 2nd in the NBA
•   48.9% OFG% at the rim, 44th in the NBA
•   51.9% OFG% 0-8 feet, 21st in the NBA
•   38.3% OFG% 8-16 feet, 19th in the NBA
•   37.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 15th in the NBA
•   35.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 65th in the NBA
•   -.6% Overall Differential
Green
•   2.37 StealsP48M, 26th in the NBA
•   1.91 BlocksP48M, 46th in the NBA
•   4.63 DRPM, 5th in the NBA
•   46.9% OFG% at the rim, 26th in the NBA
•   51.4% OFG% 0-8 feet, 13th in the NBA
•   39.8% OFG% 8-16 feet, 36th in the NBA
•   36.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 4th in the NBA
•   33.3% OFG% 24+ feet, 14th in the NBA
•   -6.3% Overall Differential

Jordan
•   1.38 StealsP48M, 135th in the NBA
•   3.11 BlocksP48M, 12th in the NBA
•   2.18 DRPM, 47th in the NBA
•   48.5% OFG% at the rim, 36th in the NBA
•   54.2% OFG% 0-8 feet, 56th in the NBA
•   38.8% OFG% 8-16 feet, 26th in the NBA
•   41.2% OFG% 16-24 feet, 101th in the NBA
•   36.1% OFG% 24+ feet, 82nd in the NBA
•   -.8% Overall Differential
Davis
•   1.96 StealsP48M, 61st in the NBA
•   3.91 BlocksP48M, 4th in the NBA
•   3.76 DRPM, 12th in the NBA
•   48.6% OFG% at the rim, 39th in the NBA
•   56.2% OFG% 0-8 feet, 92nd in the NBA
•   36.6% OFG% 8-16 feet, 5th in the NBA
•   37.5% OFG% 16-24 feet, 13th in the NBA
•   34% OFG% 24+ feet, 27th in the NBA
•   -6.3% Overall Differential
Gobert
•   1.42 StealsP48M, 125th in the NBA
•   4.2 BlocksP48M, 3rd in the NBA
•   3.65 DRPM, 14th in the NBA
•   40.4% OFG% at the rim, 1st in the NBA
•   49.3% OFG% 0-8 feet, 2nd in the NBA
•   44% OFG% 8-16 feet, 121st in the NBA
•   36.3% OFG% 16-24 feet, 2nd in the NBA
•   35 % OFG% 24+ feet, 52nd in the NBA
•   -4% Overall Differential
Bogut
•   1.18 StealsP48M, 178th in the NBA
•   3.4 BlocksP48M, 7th in the NBA
•   5.83 DRPM, 1st in the NBA
•   41.4% OFG% at the rim,  3rd in the NBA
•   47.5% OFG% 0-8 feet, 1st in the NBA
•   42.3% OFG% 8-16 feet, 94th in the NBA
•   37.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 15th in the NBA
•   38%% OFG% 24+ feet, 31st in the NBA
•   -5.9% Overall Differential
Allen
•   3.76 StealsP48M, 1st in the NBA
•   .87 BlocksP48M, 101st in the NBA
•   4.69 DRPM, 4th in the NBA
•   50.5% OFG% at the rim, n/a in the NBA
•   55.4% OFG% 0-8 feet, n/ast in the NBA
•   40.3% OFG% 8-16 feet, n/a in the NBA
•   32.2% OFG% 16-24 feet, 1st in the NBA
•   36.6% OFG% 24+ feet, n/a in the NBA
•   -6.9% Overall Differential
Duncan
•   1.36 StealsP48M, 144th in the NBA
•   3.25 BlocksP48M, 9th in the NBA
•   4.47 DRPM, 6th in the NBA
•   46.9% OFG% at the rim, 25th in the NBA
•   51.6% OFG% 0-8 feet, 22st in the NBA
•   37.9% OFG% 8-16 feet, 18th in the NBA
•   40.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 76th in the NBA
•   34.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 39th in the NBA
•   -3.3% Overall Differential
Kidd-Gilchrist
•   .9 StealsP48M, n/a in the NBA
•   1.2 BlocksP48M, n/a in the NBA
•   3.64 DRPM, 15th in the NBA
•   48.% OFG% at the rim, 33rd in the NBA
•   50.2% OFG% 0-8 feet, 21nd in the NBA
•   40% OFG% 8-16 feet, 41st in the NBA
•   41.5% OFG% 16-24 feet, 107th in the NBA
•   34.3% OFG% 24+ feet, 34th in the NBA
•   -.4% Overall Differential
Butler
•   2.18 StealsP48M, 35th in the NBA
•   .69 BlocksP48M, 126th in the NBA
•   .21 DRPM, 175th in the NBA
•   56% OFG% at the rim, 176th in the NBA
•   50.7% OFG% 0-8 feet, 6th in the NBA
•   42.8% OFG% 8-16 feet, 107th in the NBA
•   41.1% OFG% 16-24 feet, 94th in the NBA
•   34.3% OFG% 24+ feet, 34th in the NBA
•   +3.8% Overall Differential
Gasol
•   1.25 StealsP48M, 165th in the NBA
•   2.34 BlocksP48M, 33rd in the NBA
•   2.22 DRPM, 43rd in the NBA
•   49.4% OFG% at the rim, 55th in the NBA
•   56.3% OFG% 0-8 feet, 93rd in the NBA
•   41.2% OFG% 8-16 feet, 69th in the NBA
•   37.9% OFG% 16-24 feet, 30th in the NBA
•   37.2% OFG% 24+ feet, 118th in the NBA
•   -2.8% Overall Differential
Noah
•   1.12 StealsP48M, 188th in the NBA
•   1.73 BlocksP48M, 53rd in the NBA
•   2.33 DRPM, 38th in the NBA
•   51.7% OFG% at the rim, 89th in the NBA
•   52.7% OFG% 0-8 feet, 32nd in the NBA
•   36.2% OFG% 8-16 feet, 4th in the NBA
•   42.3% OFG% 16-24 feet, 112th in the NBA
•   35.2% OFG% 24+ feet, 59th in the NBA
•   -5.6% Overall Differential
James
•   2.1 StealsP48M, 45th in the NBA
•   .98 BlocksP48M, 95th in the NBA
•   2.08 DRPM, 51st in the NBA
•   49.3% OFG% at the rim, 54th in the NBA
•   56.3% OFG% 0-8 feet, 95th in the NBA
•   40% OFG% 8-16 feet, 41st in the NBA
•   41.5% OFG% 16-24 feet, 107th in the NBA
•   34.3% OFG% 24+ feet, 34th in the NBA
•   -.4% Overall Differential
Noel
•   2.76 StealsP48M, 8th in the NBA
•   2.95 BlocksP48M, 15th in the NBA
•   3.32 DRPM, 20th in the NBA
•   45.4% OFG% at the rim, 15th in the NBA
•   51.5% OFG% 0-8 feet, 15th in the NBA
•   39% OFG% 8-16 feet, 28th in the NBA
•   41% OFG% 16-24 feet, 94th in the NBA
•   36.7% OFG% 24+ feet, 96th in the NBA
•   +.1% Overall Differential
Ibaka
•   .68 StealsP48M, 254th in the NBA
•   3.52 BlocksP48M, 6th in the NBA
•   3.51 DRPM, 16th in the NBA
•   40.8% OFG% at the rim, 2nd in the NBA
•   50.3% OFG% 0-8 feet, 3rd in the NBA
•   37.9% OFG% 8-16 feet, 18th in the NBA
•   36.6% OFG% 16-24 feet, 6th in the NBA
•   35.1% OFG% 24+ feet, 55th in the NBA
•   -5.6% Overall Differential
Smart
•   2.63 StealsP48M, 11th in the NBA
•   .48 BlocksP48M, 169th in the NBA
•   2.08 DRPM, 51st in the NBA
•   47.9% OFG% at the rim, 28th in the NBA
•   57.9% OFG% 0-8 feet, 14th in the NBA
•   40.1% OFG% 8-16 feet, 44th in the NBA
•   39.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 60th in the NBA
•   32.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 5th in the NBA
•   +.7% Overall Differential
Middleton
•   2.46 StealsP48M, 21st in the NBA
•   .22 BlocksP48M, 242nd in the NBA
•   4.23 DRPM, 7th in the NBA
•   53.9% OFG% at the rim, 106th in the NBA
•   51.5% OFG% 0-8 feet, 16th in the NBA
•   33.2% OFG% 8-16 feet, 2nd in the NBA
•   38.7% OFG% 16-24 feet, 40th in the NBA
•   33.8% OFG% 24+ feet, 21st in the NBA
•   -4.4% Overall Differential
Matthews
•   1.83 StealsP48M, 72nd in the NBA
•   .24 BlocksP48M, 238th in the NBA
•   2.04 DRPM, 53rd in the NBA
•   56% OFG% at the rim, 83rd in the NBA
•   52.5% OFG% 0-8 feet, 28th in the NBA
•   40.5% OFG% 8-16 feet, 53rd in the NBA
•   38.7% OFG% 16-24 feet, 39th in the NBA
•   32.2% OFG% 24+ feet, 3rd in the NBA
•   -3.3% Overall Differential
There are some other stats that can help, but these are the main ones I am using to determine defensive MVP.
My top ten based on these stats would be:
1.   Draymond Green
2.   Rudy Gobert
3.   Kawhi Leonard
4.   Anthony Davis
5.   Serge Ibaka
6.   Andrew Bogut
7.   Kris Middleton
8.   Tim Duncan
9.    Nerlens Noel
10.   Deandre Jordan
11.   Tony Allen
12.   Marcus Smart
13.   Wes Matthews
14.   Joakim Noah
15.   Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
16.   Lebron James
17.   Marc Gasol
18.   Jimmy Butler

[e4sym0de]

nice post, thanks for the work

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I think Marcus Smart shows really well here. I think as he develops, he will force offensive players to shoot the shots he wants them to. Also, can you imagine if he had a rim protector behind him? His worst stat would immediately be elevated.

[Csfan1984]

Well put together.

[Csfan1984]

Based on all those stats I still think Kawhi is at the top just because he is a SF. I would really want him on C's as well as Gobert, Noel and Ibaka.

[Smartacus]

I think Marcus Smart shows really well here. I think as he develops, he will force offensive players to shoot the shots he wants them to. Also, can you imagine if he had a rim protector behind him? His worst stat would immediately be elevated.

Well done, informative post. The username is definitely relevant.

Looks like if I'm reading this correctly Smart is elite at defending the 3 point line and very strong for a guard around the basket, kind of like how prime Dwayne Wade was as a defender. Could I make a request to see how Elfrid Payton stacks up in these metrics since there been so much contention about him vs Smart on this board?

[Celtics4ever]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

[BornReady]

Draymond green deserved DPOY
I think they voted for Leonard cuz they didn't want GSW getting a lot of the awards
Same reason for Kerr not being coach of the year

Curry definitely gets MVP after all these misses

[colincb]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

[Csfan1984]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I think Marcus Smart shows really well here. I think as he develops, he will force offensive players to shoot the shots he wants them to. Also, can you imagine if he had a rim protector behind him? His worst stat would immediately be elevated.

Well done, informative post. The username is definitely relevant.

Looks like if I'm reading this correctly Smart is elite at defending the 3 point line and very strong for a guard around the basket, kind of like how prime Dwayne Wade was as a defender. Could I make a request to see how Elfrid Payton stacks up in these metrics since there been so much contention about him vs Smart on this board?

Your wish is my command.

Smart
•   2.63 StealsP48M, 11th in the NBA
•   .48 BlocksP48M, 169th in the NBA
•   2.08 DRPM, 51st in the NBA
•   47.9% OFG% at the rim, 28th in the NBA
•   57.9% OFG% 0-8 feet, 14th in the NBA
•   40.1% OFG% 8-16 feet, 44th in the NBA
•   39.4% OFG% 16-24 feet, 60th in the NBA
•   32.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 5th in the NBA
•   +.7% Overall Differential

Payton
•   2.74 StealsP48M, 9th in the NBA
•   .39 BlocksP48M, 193rd in the NBA
•   .89 DRPM, 120th in the NBA
•   57.9% OFG% at the rim, 122nd in the NBA
•   57.2% OFG% 0-8 feet, 193rd in the NBA
•   41.2% OFG% 8-16 feet, 137th in the NBA
•   38% OFG% 16-24 feet, 54th in the NBA
•   38.4% OFG% 24+ feet, 214th in the NBA
•   +3.9% Overall Differential

Payton may get a lot of steals, but players generally shoot well against him, get to the basket at will against him, and shoot the three pretty well against him. Players shoot against Payton a lot like they shoot against Lavine, although Lavine is a worse scheme defender and stealer.

[crimson_stallion]

Draymond green deserved DPOY
I think they voted for Leonard cuz they didn't want GSW getting a lot of the awards
Same reason for Kerr not being coach of the year

Curry definitely gets MVP after all these misses

They voted for Leonard because he plays for the Spurs, whom everybody has loved since forever.  Plus they won the title last year, which made everybody feel all warm and fuzzy inside, so lets honour them by giving them at least one award in the offseason.  It's good PR.

It's the same reason Derek Rose got an MVP award, although Leonard is far more qualified for DPOTY then Rose ever was for an MVP.

The league is always going to favour the teams that are historically popular, because it gets people's attention.  Chris Paul has been one of the top players in this league (you could probably argue he's been the most complete player in the league for the past decade) and has carried his team (which was a league-wide joke before he got there) to the second best record in the Western conference, but has he ever gotten any real recognition?  Nope.  Why?  Because he plays for the Clippers, who nobody gives a peep about.  Steve Nash won two MVP awards in his prime, and he has never in his life been as complete a player as CP3, nor has he ever achieved more team success with less talent around him - CP3 led the notoriously lottery-bound Clippers to the Playoffs his first season there, and has led them to second seed in he West this year with some talent...but nowhere near as much as Nash had when he was surrounded by the likes of Marion, Amare, etc. While CP3 has never won a title, neither has Nash.   

The NBA award process is rigged in favour of big-market teams and historically popular teams.  Always has been.  Always will be.  If the Spurs or Lakers or Celtics have a big season, somebody from their team will likely win an award.  If the Raptors, Clippers or Hornets do really well then chances are they will be ignored.

[BDeCosta26]

Although, I do not think it is going to happen another reason to go after Noel.

Defensively, he's elite.  Offensively his real +/- is second worst in the NBA. On both sides of the ball his numbers are going to be inflated because the Sixers stunk and they were often playing against bench players on the other team. Like any other player on a really bad team, I'd be very wary of his numbers.

There are people on the Sixer forums inflating his value as one might expect and a bunch of people here tabbing him as elite in defending the Hinkie plan for rebuilding. He's not.
Right now, Noel's a specialist and while he may improve it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be an offensive force and he's not a great rebounder either. The Sixers moved him to PF late in the season and supposedly to stay and his numbers are likely to get worse on both sides of the ball if that's where he plays next season.

I agree with this. If he is a Tyson Chandler type at the very least then I'd still want him on the team. Draft offense and hope Young develops into a legit weapon. For draft I'm thinking take Vezenkov at 28. Trade a Brooklyn pick and this year's 16th pick for Noel.

(Sure the guys that over value him will say that isn't enough, their opinion is well known. I feel Noel is not going to be a good PF, his value is Center and he has no offense so it's enough.)

I've been debating with guys around here about the value of Noel and I'm normally trying to temper their enthusiasm but I highly doubt that's enough. If it is I'd do it in a heartbeat, but I'd imagine they want more. He's the only viable asset besides more draft picks that Philly has gotten from their tankathon. Young, a 2018 BRK pick, #16, #33 and the DAL or two MIN picks might be enough.

At the very least, Hinkie would need Young, a Brooklyn pick, #16 and at least one of his two seconds back. Guy loves the 2nds.

My question is, if we have to use any of the Brooklyn picks to make a move, which one do we use? I'd prob wanna keep the 2016 1st because whether or not Lopez opts out that pick looks like it's gonna be lottery. The 2018 pick is too far away to predict. Knowing the Nets that could be a top 5 pick. But it could be in the 20s too, and it's a pretty safe bet the 2016 1St won't be that low.

[nickagneta]

The guys that really jump off the page statistically for me are Gobert, Davis and Noel. For Noel to be top 30 in 6 categories and no worse than 96th in the league in any of the categories shown is remarkable for a rookie.

Wondering why a defensive stat such as defensive rebounding percentage isn't included in determining DPOY statistically? I would think after watching the last three Celtics games that we as a blog could agree that defensive rebounding is an important stat?

[relja]

Draymond green deserved DPOY
I think they voted for Leonard cuz they didn't want GSW getting a lot of the awards
Same reason for Kerr not being coach of the year

Curry definitely gets MVP after all these misses

It was a tight one between two elite defensive performers and both of 'em deserved it.

Kerr being the coach of the year? Please, he literally inherited a stacked team and used his decent knowledge combined with playing experience, and therefore achieved success. No big deal.