Will Boston trade up?

[slamtheking]

Doubtful. The NBA isn't like the NFL where mid-firsts are as valuable as top 5 picks. After about pick 7 or 8, the bust rate goes up past 75%. A 16 pick is nearly worthless and a 26 pick completely so.

We'll probably package them for future firsts. Can't see us adding more marginal rooks to the squad..

What makes you think packaging mid-round 1sts in this draft is likely to yield picks that have a decent chance of turning into top picks in the future?  How does it really help the team to roll over the picks into the future?

Even if they're just more role players, adding guys on rookie contracts who still have the allure of some "potential" will increase the trade assets on the Celts roster compared to the expiring veterans and journeymen they've got taking up half the roster right now.

Maybe. Frankly the picks aren't terribly valuable now, next year, or three years from now unless we tank next year. I'd roll over the picks and then tank next year personally..

Yep we need to tank next year. Hard. Our picks this year have no value and the Brooklyn picks have middling value due to them making the playoffs this year as well. You don't think Proky will allow Boston to get the #1 pick do you? He's going to spend.

all you ever want to do is tank.  you live for the dream of potential and putting all your eggs in that one basket instead of seeing all the options available -- draft, trades & free agents.  I for one can't get behind following in Philly's footsteps -- jettisoning all talent to become so awful in order to improve odds of getting a top pick.  how many years does that have to continue before even the Philly-plan lovers call it a failed philosophy?
The stunk for the MCW draft.  They stunk for the Noel draft.  They stunk for the Embiid/Saric draft.  They'll stink for this draft.  They'll still stink for the following draft.  How long does that have to continue before they should reconsider what they're doing?

[Evantime34]

Doubtful. The NBA isn't like the NFL where mid-firsts are as valuable as top 5 picks. After about pick 7 or 8, the bust rate goes up past 75%. A 16 pick is nearly worthless and a 26 pick completely so.

We'll probably package them for future firsts. Can't see us adding more marginal rooks to the squad..

What makes you think packaging mid-round 1sts in this draft is likely to yield picks that have a decent chance of turning into top picks in the future?  How does it really help the team to roll over the picks into the future?

Even if they're just more role players, adding guys on rookie contracts who still have the allure of some "potential" will increase the trade assets on the Celts roster compared to the expiring veterans and journeymen they've got taking up half the roster right now.

Maybe. Frankly the picks aren't terribly valuable now, next year, or three years from now unless we tank next year. I'd roll over the picks and then tank next year personally..

Yep we need to tank next year. Hard. Our picks this year have no value and the Brooklyn picks have middling value due to them making the playoffs this year as well. You don't think Proky will allow Boston to get the #1 pick do you? He's going to spend.

all you ever want to do is tank.  you live for the dream of potential and putting all your eggs in that one basket instead of seeing all the options available -- draft, trades & free agents.  I for one can't get behind following in Philly's footsteps -- jettisoning all talent to become so awful in order to improve odds of getting a top pick.  how many years does that have to continue before even the Philly-plan lovers call it a failed philosophy?
The stunk for the MCW draft.  They stunk for the Noel draft.  They stunk for the Embiid/Saric draft.  They'll stink for this draft.  They'll still stink for the following draft.  How long does that have to continue before they should reconsider what they're doing?

My thing is that it is not fun to watch a team that is tanking, and the reason I watch the Celtics and basketball in general is because it's fun.

It's debatable whether tanking is a better strategy, what isn't debatable is whether I want to watch a team tank for several years before  I can enjoy watching them again.

An honest question, do you enjoy watching Philly play? Would you be happy with a strategy that involves supporting a team that is unwatchable for at least 3 years before they start to turn back upwards?

[slamtheking]

Doubtful. The NBA isn't like the NFL where mid-firsts are as valuable as top 5 picks. After about pick 7 or 8, the bust rate goes up past 75%. A 16 pick is nearly worthless and a 26 pick completely so.

We'll probably package them for future firsts. Can't see us adding more marginal rooks to the squad..

What makes you think packaging mid-round 1sts in this draft is likely to yield picks that have a decent chance of turning into top picks in the future?  How does it really help the team to roll over the picks into the future?

Even if they're just more role players, adding guys on rookie contracts who still have the allure of some "potential" will increase the trade assets on the Celts roster compared to the expiring veterans and journeymen they've got taking up half the roster right now.

Maybe. Frankly the picks aren't terribly valuable now, next year, or three years from now unless we tank next year. I'd roll over the picks and then tank next year personally..

Yep we need to tank next year. Hard. Our picks this year have no value and the Brooklyn picks have middling value due to them making the playoffs this year as well. You don't think Proky will allow Boston to get the #1 pick do you? He's going to spend.

all you ever want to do is tank.  you live for the dream of potential and putting all your eggs in that one basket instead of seeing all the options available -- draft, trades & free agents.  I for one can't get behind following in Philly's footsteps -- jettisoning all talent to become so awful in order to improve odds of getting a top pick.  how many years does that have to continue before even the Philly-plan lovers call it a failed philosophy?
The stunk for the MCW draft.  They stunk for the Noel draft.  They stunk for the Embiid/Saric draft.  They'll stink for this draft.  They'll still stink for the following draft.  How long does that have to continue before they should reconsider what they're doing?

My thing is that it is not fun to watch a team that is tanking, and the reason I watch the Celtics and basketball in general is because it's fun.

It's debatable whether tanking is a better strategy, what isn't debatable is whether I want to watch a team tank for several years before  I can enjoy watching them again.

An honest question, do you enjoy watching Philly play? Would you be happy with a strategy that involves supporting a team that is unwatchable for at least 3 years before they start to turn back upwards?

personally, I'm not a fan of deliberately getting worse for a long-term stay in the lottery.  makes for bad basketball without much to look forward to except (usually empty) promises that the team will get lucky in the draft.

It was one thing in the years between Antoine and KG/Ray when the team wasn't particularly good but drafting some good young players.  the kids played hard.  didnt' win a lot but they played hard and you could see some talent there and that they were getting better.  Danny used that to improve the team by trading some of the kids for proven players while keeping some good players.  They also had a legit stud in PP to build with.

Philly has basically boxed themselves in by having only 1 player on the court for them this year that anyone would expect them to keep and he's a 2nd-year rookie.  They have no good veterans (nevermind proven studs) to build with that would entice a free agent or to pair with a proven vet should they trade that youth (or future picks) away.  2 of Philly's top 3 assets didn't even play for them this year -- one is out the season injured and the other is in Europe with no real incentive to come to the NBA's biggest joke of a roster.   Philly's only option for a few more years is to hope beyond hope they finally get the number one pick in an upcoming draft where the top player turns out to be the next Lebron AND that as their young players come off their rookie contracts that those players don't refuse an extension in an effort to get out of that losing environment. 

Noel can bolt after the 2018 season.  anyone really think Philly will be that much better than they are now by then?  I don't see them sniffing the playoffs even by then

[PhoSita]

This team might win fewer games next year because they exchange some of the older players in favor of rookies or other young talent, or because they run into injuries.

Anybody hoping Danny is going to tear this thing down all over again and that the Celts are going to tank is almost certainly going to be disappointed.

The talent on this roster is too spread out to tank via any means other than an utter firesale of all the guys who have shown an ability to produce at the NBA level.  That would be very counter-productive.

[BudweiserCeltic]

If Ainge can't trade up, I would strongly consider trading down.

Maybe try to get Hollis-Jefferson towards the end of the first round.

Or simply trading out and conserve the cap space.

[Donoghus]

If Ainge can't trade up, I would strongly consider trading down.

Maybe try to get Hollis-Jefferson towards the end of the first round.

Or simply trading out and conserve the cap space.

This is where I think the draft is headed for the Celtics this year.  I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Danny punt the draft this year if he can. 

[SHAQATTACK]

This team might win fewer games next year because they exchange some of the older players in favor of rookies or other young talent, or because they run into injuries.

Anybody hoping Danny is going to tear this thing down all over again and that the Celts are going to tank is almost certainly going to be disappointed.

The talent on this roster is too spread out to tank via any means other than an utter firesale of all the guys who have shown an ability to produce at the NBA level.  That would be very counter-productive.

Finally .....well put....TP ...... Baring a rash of season ending injuries to half the team ,  those dreaming of a 13 win season need to wake up ....it ain't happening .

Danny and CBS aren't tankers ......neither are the owners..

Time for the perpetual tanker fans to give it up.

[cman88]

why would you expect Brooklyn to get better next year? Brook lopez most likely will opt out and he is trying to sell the team. if anything it will be a low lottery pick.

They could trade up. it all depends on if Ainge sees someone he likes. much like he did to move up for Olynyk

[Ilikesports17]

This team might win fewer games next year because they exchange some of the older players in favor of rookies or other young talent, or because they run into injuries.

Anybody hoping Danny is going to tear this thing down all over again and that the Celts are going to tank is almost certainly going to be disappointed.

The talent on this roster is too spread out to tank via any means other than an utter firesale of all the guys who have shown an ability to produce at the NBA level.  That would be very counter-productive.

Finally .....well put....TP ...... Baring a rash of season ending injuries to half the team ,  those dreaming of a 13 win season need to wake up ....it ain't happening .

Danny and CBS aren't tankers ......neither are the owners..

Time for the perpetual tanker fans to give it up.

I think the tank discussion will go on unless Philly really bottoms out and their whole rebuild fails I think you will see a lot of "we should have tanked" posts however, I hope that the tankers at least switch from "we should tank" to "we should have tanked" because lets face it... the Celtics arent going to tank.

[Who]

This team might win fewer games next year because they exchange some of the older players in favor of rookies or other young talent, or because they run into injuries.

Anybody hoping Danny is going to tear this thing down all over again and that the Celts are going to tank is almost certainly going to be disappointed.

The talent on this roster is too spread out to tank via any means other than an utter firesale of all the guys who have shown an ability to produce at the NBA level.  That would be very counter-productive.

Finally .....well put....TP ...... Baring a rash of season ending injuries to half the team ,  those dreaming of a 13 win season need to wake up ....it ain't happening .

Danny and CBS aren't tankers ......neither are the owners..

Time for the perpetual tanker fans to give it up.

I think the tank discussion will go on unless Philly really bottoms out and their whole rebuild fails I think you will see a lot of "we should have tanked" posts however, I hope that the tankers at least switch from "we should tank" to "we should have tanked" because lets face it... the Celtics arent going to tank.

There are going to be tanking posts until Boston (1) gets a genuine star, & (2) looks capable of winning a playoff series.

So probably for the next 2-3 years.

---------------------------------------------

This is not unusual. This is the type of discussions all teams have that are in a similar position as Boston. As a late lottery / borderline playoff team.

The Rockets were stuck in this position for 5 years after Yao Ming retired until they landed James Harden in trade. They stayed competitive and played around .500 ball most of those seasons. Even so, there was still a focal part of the fanbase that thought Morey's strategy was wrong and wanted the team to bottom out instead of plodding along through mediocrity. There were calls for Morey to be fired.

Then they got Harden and Harden blew up once he got to Houston. Then all those calls went away. That is what has to happen to the Boston Celtics for the calls to tank to go away. A genuine star & realistic chance to win in the playoffs. Real genuine hope of making a run in the playoffs in the immediate to very near future.

Until then, these tanking debates are going to go on and on and on ... and on some more.

Best just to accept them as part of everyday life for a team in Boston's situation because they are. They happen everywhere. Every team.

[moiso]

This team might win fewer games next year because they exchange some of the older players in favor of rookies or other young talent, or because they run into injuries.

Anybody hoping Danny is going to tear this thing down all over again and that the Celts are going to tank is almost certainly going to be disappointed.

The talent on this roster is too spread out to tank via any means other than an utter firesale of all the guys who have shown an ability to produce at the NBA level.  That would be very counter-productive.

Finally .....well put....TP ...... Baring a rash of season ending injuries to half the team ,  those dreaming of a 13 win season need to wake up ....it ain't happening .

Danny and CBS aren't tankers ......neither are the owners..

Time for the perpetual tanker fans to give it up.

I think the tank discussion will go on unless Philly really bottoms out and their whole rebuild fails I think you will see a lot of "we should have tanked" posts however, I hope that the tankers at least switch from "we should tank" to "we should have tanked" because lets face it... the Celtics arent going to tank.

It's really strange how people see Philly as a success story when all they have proven is that they can get worse every year.

[Who]

This team might win fewer games next year because they exchange some of the older players in favor of rookies or other young talent, or because they run into injuries.

Anybody hoping Danny is going to tear this thing down all over again and that the Celts are going to tank is almost certainly going to be disappointed.

The talent on this roster is too spread out to tank via any means other than an utter firesale of all the guys who have shown an ability to produce at the NBA level.  That would be very counter-productive.

Finally .....well put....TP ...... Baring a rash of season ending injuries to half the team ,  those dreaming of a 13 win season need to wake up ....it ain't happening .

Danny and CBS aren't tankers ......neither are the owners..

Time for the perpetual tanker fans to give it up.

I think the tank discussion will go on unless Philly really bottoms out and their whole rebuild fails I think you will see a lot of "we should have tanked" posts however, I hope that the tankers at least switch from "we should tank" to "we should have tanked" because lets face it... the Celtics arent going to tank.

It's really strange how people see Philly as a success story when all they have proven is that they can get worse every year.

I think Philly is viewed as a success in terms of opportunity to:

(1) acquire top tier young talent
(2) acquire multiple top young talents

Winning is still something far off in the distance. It's not the immediate priority.

What this is about -- their purpose -- is acquiring star talent whether it is established talent (free agency, trades) or young talent with star potential (draft). Philly's plan clearly allows them the opportunity to get young talent with star potential.

In that sense, they have had some early successes ... and obviously, there is a lot more work still to be done. To build off of what they have achieved so far to continue growing and into eventually building a team capable of challenging for a title.

[mef730]

why would you expect Brooklyn to get better next year? Brook lopez most likely will opt out and he is trying to sell the team. if anything it will be a low lottery pick.

They could trade up. it all depends on if Ainge sees someone he likes. much like he did to move up for Olynyk

Agree.  Almost no way that team gets better.  A few months ago, I would have said that Lopez would be crazy to opt out.  Now, not so much, leaving Brooklyn with two aging former sort-of-stars and a bunch of role players.  No hopes for free agents, since they'll have $70m in salaries if Lopez opts out, another $10m if Young goes.  Meanwhile, in the east, Indiana and Miami will get better.  Detroit, Orlando and Charlotte all have a legit shot of passing them.  Even New York will have Melo and a high draft pick.  If you're a star looking to move to NY, which team would you choose?

There are two downsides to the above scenario: First, the west will still be so dominant that Brooklyn will have a better record than superior teams because they play against the east.  Second, nothing that I predict ever happens.  My picks are generally 100% inversely correlated to what actually happens (no statement on causation, however).

Mike

[PhoSita]

If Ainge can't trade up, I would strongly consider trading down.

Maybe try to get Hollis-Jefferson towards the end of the first round.

Or simply trading out and conserve the cap space.

This is where I think the draft is headed for the Celtics this year.  I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Danny punt the draft this year if he can.

I don't at all understand why that would make sense.

You could create more cap space by using the stretch provision on Wallace than by "punting" on the draft.

It's not like this team should be avoiding opportunities to add and develop young talent, and honestly, the next few years are probably going to look pretty similar in terms of our draft position prior to any trades being made.

Are you thinking they're going to try and go out and sign a couple of guys to big contracts this summer?

[Ilikesports17]

If Ainge can't trade up, I would strongly consider trading down.

Maybe try to get Hollis-Jefferson towards the end of the first round.

Or simply trading out and conserve the cap space.

This is where I think the draft is headed for the Celtics this year.  I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Danny punt the draft this year if he can.

I don't at all understand why that would make sense.

You could create more cap space by using the stretch provision on Wallace than by "punting" on the draft.

It's not like this team should be avoiding opportunities to add and develop young talent, and honestly, the next few years are probably going to look pretty similar in terms of our draft position prior to any trades being made.

Are you thinking they're going to try and go out and sign a couple of guys to big contracts this summer?

Id rather see him combine our picks with a TE to get an established player than see him "punt the draft"

Unless Danny can get unprotected picks etc it doesnt make a lot of sense to move pick 16 in this draft to get something thats probably going to be in the area next year, where we already have 3-4 1s