Will Boston trade up?

[LarBrd33]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player.  But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

[Ilikesports17]

They've got to try.  Ainge wouldn't be doing his job if he doesn't.

Will #16, #28, Bradley and Sullinger or Olynyk get the Celtics into the top 5?  No, probably not, and the Celtics would be giving up kind of a lot just to take a chance on a highly touted draft guy.

But #16, #28 and Bradley might get the Celtics into the top 10 or 12.  If there's a guy Danny really likes in that range -- Stanley Johnson, let's say, or maybe WCS or Porzingis slips a few spots -- I could see that going down.

There was a Zach Lowe article a few weeks ago suggesting AB to the Jazz for #12 was possible and that it would be the Jazz not the C's looking to throw in decent assets like Rodney Hood to make that deal work. If you made that Move than offered Sacramento pick 12, pick 16, and Sully for pick # I expect they would take that because pick 12 and 16 would let them get their pg of the future at 12 (Grant/Dunn) and then a PF at 16 (Harrell, Lyles etc). In fact I could even see them doing this move with just 12 and 16 or Sully, but thats because the Kings FO is stupid

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

That being said, If we sign Middleton using some of the cap cleared up by moving AB now you are set at the 1, 2, 3 for the future and still have KO, Zeller and a ton of cap space to solve the problems at the 4 and 5.

I want to write more lol sorry

AB to Jazz for # 12 then #12 + Sully + 16 to Sac for # 6 is something I would be shocked to see Sac turn down.

They would be able to get decent PF next to Cousins thus improving immediately.
Their two  biggest holes are PF and PG as they have two top 10 picks from 13 and 14 at the SG and Rudy Gay just signed a nice extension at SF and obviously DMC is a beast at C. The best pgs available outside of the top 4 are Dunn and Grant, both are projected to go around 12-15. At 16 either Lyles, Turner if he falls, Harrell, Portis, and Looney could all be had.

This move would let them fill their biggest immediate hole and draft good long term solutions at the only two positions they dont have long term solutions at. Selecting at # 6 the best available guys are most likely going to be 3s and 5s which is not valuable to them.

The question is, should we do it?

The answer is I dont know.

If we see Winslow as a star and I think I do but honestly IDK, then do it.
If you can get a star wing player for what is likely going to be at best 3 solid starters that is worth it. However, if all you get is another solid starter than you have lost.

For us it puts us at:
Smart IT4
Turner Young
Winslow
Olynyk
Zeller
yikes. That isnt a playoff team.
However, lets say we sign Middleton and Robin Lopez and Crowder for 15, 10 and 4 mill a year respectively.

Now:
Smart IT4
Middleton Young
Turner Winslow Crowder
Olynyk
Lopez Zeller
Move Turner for whatever you can get at the trade deadline and pray Winslow and Smart turn out to be stars and I think we have ourselves a team.


I apologize for the rambling and TBH I still dont know if Id do those two trades and its all very hypothetical and we have a Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.ing playoff game in 3 hours!

[LooseCannon]

I could see Ainge determining that the best player available at #16 will still be there at #22-24 and he trades #16 plus the Philly second round pick for a later first round pick and a future first.

[Ilikesports17]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player.  But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

I think you are right if you read my ramblings above that kinda what Im getting at. odds are Sully(who is a fa next year), pick #16, and AB are all replaceable in FA without restricting yourself too much. Bass or jerebko can nearly replace Sully, and Danny green or Middleton can more than replace Bradley. Also I am expecting a breakout year from KO (silly me) so maybe Sully wont need a replacement.

Also I think Winslow has a lot of star potential at #6 so I think I would do this.

[PhoSita]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player.  But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

Right.  I'd be OK with trading Smart if the return is a proven productive player with All-Star potential -- in other words, an overpay.

Not because I think Smart is going to be a star necessarily, but because he clearly has some elite skills and I'm always reticent about the idea of trading a young guy before he's been given a few seasons to develop and provide a clearer picture of his long term value.

[byennie]

Picking at 16 seems in this draft seems a bit problematic. The players ranked in that area are at positions that Boston does not really need, there are a bunch of PG's and PF's in the 14-18 range. Do you think they will trade one of their many assets to get up around 9-11 where they could get a player that is a better fit?

I think Danny will trade the 16 and 28 and hope he can get a 11-12 pick (if he really likes someone in this range). Maybe add sullinger and move into 9-10

But will want to keep the 33rd and 45 picks. No auto contracts required to give

Wow, that's a new low for Sully. Using him to move up from 11-12 to 9-10??

to be fair, Sully's injury dropped him to 21 where we grabbed him, and with his injury, getting into the lotto pick with him and our 16th pick is a no brainer for me

I'm assuming this is what was meant (#16 + Sully for #9). But the way it was written was that *adding* Sully was moving us from 11-12 to 9-10. So we were trading Sully to move up 1 or 2 spots.

[jpotter33]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player. But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

He strikes again! lol 

[LarBrd33]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player.  But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

Right.  I'd be OK with trading Smart if the return is a proven productive player with All-Star potential -- in other words, an overpay.

Not because I think Smart is going to be a star necessarily, but because he clearly has some elite skills and I'm always reticent about the idea of trading a young guy before he's been given a few seasons to develop and provide a clearer picture of his long term value.

I'd strongly lean towards keeping Smart for at least another season.  Rookie guards sometimes make a significant leap offensively in their second season.  Smart's offense is atrocious.  If he can develop into a scorer, that'd be huge.   CHances are he's going to go to Tony Allen route, though.  A very effective defensive role player that eventually finds himself as a contributor on a contender.

Everyone else more or less is already locked into mediocrity.  It's not too difficult to find a borderline starter.

[Eddie20]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player. But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

He strikes again! lol 

Seriously. His negativity drowns out the majority of his posts. I'm fairly certain he loved the Billups for Anderson trade went it happened.

[LarBrd33]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player. But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

He strikes again! lol 

I'm going to get labelled a Marcus Smart hater in the same way I was labelled a Rajon Rondo hater.  When you don't get drunk off the irrational koolaid, people assume you are trolling.   I was proven right with Rondo eventually.

Smart is a fine prospect.  Probably the most valuable chip we have.   I'd argue that the #6 pick was more valuable before we used it.   Smart has proven to be maybe the 7-10th best rookie this year.  Not bad.  His defense is spectacular.  He can sporadically be troublesome for opposing guards.  But he's an undersized shooting guard with atrocious offensive ability right now.  Those expecting him to develop into a Russell Westbrook type player are taking a major leap of faith.  Sometimes bad offensive guards remain bad offensive guards.  Sure, Smart could suddenly raise his 36% shooting to a level of competence... we saw it happen with Ben McLemore this year.  Guards usually get more efficient in their 2nd year.   Or maybe Smart follows the Rondo/Rubio (without elite passing) path.   I wouldn't bet money on Smart becoming an all-star some day. 

[Who]

I hope so. This team desperately needs some high level talent and this draft has a lot of quality in the top 10 picks. It's a great opportunity and Ainge has the assets to trade up and get one of those players. 

[LarBrd33]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player. But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

He strikes again! lol 

Seriously. His negativity drowns out the majority of his posts. I'm fairly certain he loved the Billups for Anderson trade went it happened.

Dude... I admittedly slant towards negativity, but the majority of the time I'm just being realistic.   The Celtics have had 1 drafted player in the past 16 years develop into an all-star for the team (Rondo).  And yet every year so-and-so is the next great prospect.   Smart has some promise, but he's also a defensive role player coming off a season where he averaged 8 points on 37%/33%/64% shooting... displaying very little point guard ability and very little scoring ability.  I assure you that nobody outside of Boston is labeling it "negativity" when I say I doubt Smart develops into an all-star. 

If a player with reasonable star potential became available (Embiid, Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Noel, Okafor, Townes), it would cost you a lot more than Marcus Smart and #16.

I'd hang onto Smart for another season to see if he makes a leap. 

[jpotter33]

losing AB + Sully + 16 makes us substantially worse next year and is effectively moving 3 mid firsts and several years of invested player development for the # 6 pick. In order to win that trade #6 pick needs to be an absolute stud.

You can probably substantially replace AB and Sullinger without too much trouble in free agency, honestly.  Would the team really be worse if you just re-signed Bass and Jerebko and then signed a guy like Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, or Wilson Chandler for somewhere in the 4-7 million per year range?

Anyway, the whole point of spending several years of player development on young role players like AB and Sully is the hope that you can then package them later for a chance at a real star. 

If a trade (or series of trades) is available that allows the Celts a chance at a guy Danny thinks could be a star, they've got to jump on it.


Hypothetical scenarios like this are why I believe there's a solid chance the Celts could actually take a step or two back this summer while going after assets that could prove to be more than just nice role players.  Trying to win games by virtue of having quality 10 man depth is not going to lead to contention.

One benefit of having a team riddled with mediocrity... Literally everyone is easily replaceable.  Only one I'd be nervous about trading is Marcus Smart on the off chance he develops beyond defensive role player. But hes totally on the table in trades if it lands a substantial cornerstone player.

He strikes again! lol 

I'm going to get labelled a Marcus Smart hater in the same way I was labelled a Rajon Rondo hater.  When you don't get drunk off the irrational koolaid, people assume you are trolling.   I was proven right with Rondo eventually.

Smart is a fine prospect.  Probably the most valuable chip we have.   I'd argue that the #6 pick was more valuable before we used it.   Smart has proven to be maybe the 7-10th best rookie this year.  Not bad.  His defense is spectacular.  He can sporadically be troublesome for opposing guards.  But he's an undersized shooting guard with atrocious offensive ability right now.  Those expecting him to develop into a Russell Westbrook type player are taking a major leap of faith.  Sometimes bad offensive guards remain bad offensive guards.  Sure, Smart could suddenly raise his 36% shooting to a level of competence... we saw it happen with Ben McLemore this year.  Guards usually get more efficient in their 2nd year.   Or maybe Smart follows the Rondo/Rubio (without elite passing) path.   I wouldn't bet money on Smart becoming an all-star some day.

I just can't take you serious anymore. Your pessimism is just too much, and you constantly underrate our guys in favor of overrating your "bae" in Philly. You're the one being irrational in your Smart-hatred, and your claims that you were making last night about "Smart's ceiling is Noel's floor," "Smart's ceiling is at best Avery Bradley," and "at best, Smart will impact the game on the level Noel did as a rookie" are just astronomically biased and asinine. Tell me again, who is the one drinking the irrational red, white, and blue koolaid? 

Actual quotes, by the way, before you say I'm misrepresenting what you said.

[PhoSita]

I'd strongly lean towards keeping Smart for at least another season.  Rookie guards sometimes make a significant leap offensively in their second season.  Smart's offense is atrocious.  If he can develop into a scorer, that'd be huge.   CHances are he's going to go to Tony Allen route, though.  A very effective defensive role player that eventually finds himself as a contributor on a contender.

Everyone else more or less is already locked into mediocrity.  It's not too difficult to find a borderline starter.

Couple points:

1) If Tony Allen could shoot 33% or better from three on 5+ attempts from deep a game, he'd be a very valuable player.  And even without a jumpshot, he's pretty valuable.

2) Yes, it's not that hard to find borderline starter quality players.  Especially when you have a really good coach.  That said, it generally costs a premium in free agency to get guys like that, and trading for them requires picks.  In that sense, Ainge's demonstrated ability to find borderline starter caliber players from pretty much any part of the draft is valuable, though obviously you'd prefer that he find a few more stars.



As you say, though, rookies are often terrible on offense and show significant improvement in year two.  Smart doesn't need to turn into Russell Westbrook on offense to become a really valuable player.  With his defensive capabilities, if Smart became comparable offensively to a guy like George Hill or Mike Conley, he'd be a cornerstone player. 

[JHTruth]

Doubtful. The NBA isn't like the NFL where mid-firsts are as valuable as top 5 picks. After about pick 7 or 8, the bust rate goes up past 75%. A 16 pick is nearly worthless and a 26 pick completely so.

We'll probably package them for future firsts. Can't see us adding more marginal rooks to the squad..