Smart 9th in real +/- among PGs

[greece66]

Marcus Smart finished the season 9th in Real Plus Minus amongst all PGs who played at least 50 games
He was 44th considering all positions.
Here are some of his advance stat rankings against other rookies:
2nd in Real Plus Minus (RPM)
4th in Win Shares (WS)
2nd in Box Plus Minus (BPM )
2nd in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
3rd in Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
(Source: http://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/33b54s/marcus_smart_finished_the_season_9th_in_real_plus/)

[jambr380]

Kind-of a bummer that he won't make all-rookie first team. With Clarkson, Lavine, and even Bogdanovic also getting a lot of praise, it is likely one of them will land a spot with Payton on the first team, despite Smart's clear domination on the defensive end.

[saltlover]

If he were a future star, he'd be top 3.

[greece66]

If he were a future star, he'd be top 3.

[Maurice98]

If he were a future star, he'd be top 3.

So Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant are not stars?

[LarBrd33]

In other worthless statistics, he was 291st in PER.  Good to see him crack the top 300. 

203rd in EFF.   

Pretty awful statistically, actually.   Eye test shows he was an impact defender, though.

According to that RPM stat, Kelly Olynyk was the 36th best player in the league (better than Smart).  Zaza Pachulia was 14th.  Future max contract Celtic, Khris Middleton, was the 8th best player in the league.

[saltlover]

If he were a future star, he'd be top 3.

So Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant are not stars?

It was pre-emptive sarcasm for comments like the one that appeared below yours.

[hwangjini_1]

If he were a future star, he'd be top 3.

So Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant are not stars?

It was pre-emptive sarcasm for comments like the one that appeared below yours.

some folks don't turn on their sarcasm meters this early in the morning. 

[kozlodoev]

In other worthless statistics, he was 291st in PER.  Good to see him crack the top 300. 

203rd in EFF.   

Pretty awful statistically, actually.   Eye test shows he was an impact defender, though.

According to that RPM stat, Kelly Olynyk was the 36th best player in the league (better than Smart).  Zaza Pachulia was 14th.  Future max contract Celtic, Khris Middleton, was the 8th best player in the league.

You don't understand. It's REAL plus-minus. REAL!!!

[greece66]

If he were a future star, he'd be top 3.

So Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant are not stars?

It was pre-emptive sarcasm for comments like the one that appeared below yours.

good to know this was preemptive sarcasm lol
but given how many similar comments are written for real it is almost impossible to distinguish sarcasm from unrealistic expectations, at least give us a hint like a smiley 

[Ilikesports17]

IDK how I feel about this stat.

I love Smart and think his impact is underrated by many but Im not sure if this stat is illustrating that impact or just a sort of a happy coincidence, most other metrics dont shine so brightly on Marcus

[kozlodoev]

IDK how I feel about this stat.

I love Smart and think his impact is underrated by many but Im not sure if this stat is illustrating that impact or just a sort of a happy coincidence, most other metrics dont shine so brightly on Marcus

It's an imputed stat based on box-score data likely suffering from major model consistency issues (e.g. multicollinearity and omitted variable bias). Given that the methodology is not open for peer review, and the results are often counter-intuitive, to say the least, I'll value it higher than a piece of turd, but lower than a bag of chips...

[greece66]

RPM reflects the impact of each player on his team's scoring margin after controlling for the strength of every teammate and every opponent during each minute he's on the court.

Adjusted +/- ratings indicate how many additional points are contributed to a team's scoring margin by a given player in comparison to the league-average player whose adjusted +/- value is zero over the span of a typical game. It is assumpted that in a typical game a team has 100 offensive and 100 defensive possessions. For example, if a +6.5 "adjusted +/-" player is on the floor with 4 average teammates, his team will average about 6.5 points better per 100 possessions than 5 average players would.
http://regressing.deadspin.com/just-what-the-hell-is-real-plus-minus-espns-new-nba-s-1560361469

[kozlodoev]

Yes, I've seen this. It is a non-technical summary, not a real methodology description. The actual methodology is not published.

edit: I'm assuming it's something closer to this: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Minus-for-Basketball-Analysis.pdf

However, my read of the situation is that this measure was so volatile that it had no practical value, so "fix" it with to be within "reasonable ranges". Or in other words they applied some sort of arbitrary "corrections" to a model that didn't really seem to work.

The enhancement with the RAPM is a Bayesian technique in which the data is combined with a priori beliefs regarding reasonable ranges for the parameters in order to produce more accurate models.

Until I see the actual paper presented at Sloan Analytics, color me unimpressed.

[celticsclay]

For what it is worth I think this is better than PER. But my opinion is worth somewhere between a turd and a bag of chips also.