Best Defenders in the NBA vs. Celtic Defenders

[DefenseWinsChamps]

In an effort to determine true defensive prowess, I did a study on the field goal percentage of offensive players when a player was guarding them.

I will break this down into three groups: guards, forwards, and big men. This will not be an exhaustive list, but will include top defenders at their postiion according to reputation, and a few Celtics.

This will not take into account the frequency of each shot, but I will take the percentage from each category and total them together. The lowest total number from the percentages will indicate a better defender.

Bigs

Name   0-8    8-16 16-24 24+  % Howard   55   38   41   32   166 Bogut   48   42   38   35   163 Gobert   49   45   36   36   166 Hibbert   51   42   39   34   166 Biyumbo   50   39   39   36   164 Noel           52   39   42   36   169 Whiteside   52   44   42   39   177 Jordan   54   39   41   36   170 Asik           55   42   40   35   172 Kanter   57   46   40   38   181 B Lopez   56   43   39   36   174 Noah           53   42   41   34   170 Henson    50   32   40   32   154 Davis    56   37   38   34   165 Anderson   57   37   35   33   162 Perkins   54   38   36   31   159 Drummond54   40   44   37   165 Ibaka    50   38   37   35   160 Horford   56   39   39   33   167                 Zeller   55   42   39   34   170 Bass           57   40   36   35   168 Olynyk   55   39   37   35   166 Sullinger   55   42   40   35   172

As you can see, the best overall defender at the center position in the NBA is John Henson, and it’s really not even close. He not only contests threes, but he is solid at the rim and the in between game. He uses his length really well. Perkins surprisingly challenges on the perimeter very well, which makes his overall defensive score solid. Ibaka uses his athletism really well to contest all over the court. Some think he baits players and gives up easy shots, but these stats simply say that is not true.

Whiteside is clearly overrated as a defender. He might be a good shotblocker, but overall, players shoot well against him. He is the second worst on this list to Enes Kanter. Other players like DeAndre Jordan, Joakim Noah, and Omer Asik also appear to be somewhat overrated as defenders. No doubt that their athelticism gives their teams unique defensive flexibility, but players shoot pretty averagely against them.

The best big defender on our team is Olynyk (as a second year player). Olynyk compares to Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Roy Hibbert, Dwight Howard, and Al Horford in these stats. He is clearly not the shotblocker that some of these players are, but he makes up for it by contesting the midrange and deep range well. Sullinger is the worst defender on our team.

Wing
Josh Smith, Jimmy Butler,
Name   0-8 8-16 16-24 24+
Anteto   54   37   40   35   166
Wiggins   62   43   39   37   181
Durant    51   33   36   37   157
Middleton   52   35   39   34   160
James    56   36   42   35   169
Dudley   50   37   38   34   159
Igoudala   53   38   36   33   160
Leonard   52   38   37   35   162
Allen           53   39   34   35   161
Green   51   40   36   33   160
MKG         50   41   42   35   168
Butler   50   43   41   34   168
Thompson   51   43   37   34   165
               
Crowder   59   37   40   32   168
Jerebko   56   41   40   33   170
Turner   57   40   38   34   169

The best wing defender in the NBA is Kevin Durant, and this really isn’t that close either. Middleton, Green, Allen, Leonard, Duley, and Iggy all rank highly as well, all of which are generally recognized as the best defenders in the NBA (one of the reasons I think this stat is viable as a way to define defensive abilities).

Wiggins got abused this year. He was guarding the other team’s best player, but he got crushed. Kidd-Gilchrist also doesn’t rate very highly in this.

Jimmy Butler surprisingly rates lower, but with all of the offensive effort he has exerted this year, it makes sense that his defense would take a step back.

I expected this stat to show our forwards well, but they were average to slightly above average. I like Crowder, but I would like to see these stats improve more. He is a crazy man sometimes, but I would like to see him put forth more consistent effort at bodying up and contesting shooters.

Guards
Name   0-8 8-16  16-24 24+   
Paul           54   37   42   36   169
Curry           51   41   37   34   163
Matthews    53   41   39   32   165
Bledsoe   54   38   38   37   167
Westbrook   54   43   38   37   172
Shumphert   54   40   39   32   165
Ju Holliday   52   36   33   35   156
Mills   52   35   35   34   156
Hill    51   41   38   34   164
Wall    54   41   39   33   167
               
Smart   56   38   40   35   169
Bradley   56   43   37   34   170
Thomas   57   36   44   34   171

A few surprises on here. The best starting guard in the NBA was Curry, but that was possibily because of who he was guarding (Iggy and Thompson take the other team’s best guard).

Patty Mills and Justin Holliday were the two best. Mills uses his quickness well as a pesky defender. Holliday has floated around the league for a few years. I would guess that getting to play against Curry and Thompson every day in practice and learning under Iggy would help his development immensley.

Our guards rank out slightly above average as defenders in this. Thomas is not nearly as bad as people think he is. Bradley might be slightly overrated. Smart showed really well as a rookie (3rd to Rodney Hood and Dante Exum, who had Gobert backing them up) and he is the only good rookie in the playoffs.

Overall, I think one more year of continuity will improve our defensive numbers slightly across the board. Obviously, if we are able to get a rim protector, those number go up even more.

According to opponents field goal percentage, our most effective defender is Kelly Olynyk. Stat after stat continues to show his unique abilities. I’m not sure if he will take the step forward to being a star/leader, but he is a unique all-around talent. I really like what he brings to the table and think that he might be a perfect compliment and teammate to almost anyone.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I don't know anything about the stats but KO is a second year player, not third.

[GetLucky]

I love the idea and your username. TP for that. I have a few questions:
1) Is there any proximity that is taken to account in this (ie: shots made within 5 ft. of the defender), or is it just the percentages of the players being guarded by x player at y time?
2) Did you weigh the final score? For example, if the centers that Henson was guarding this year went 1-2 on threes, would that be any different than a Gobert, for example, having his guys hit 20-40 on threes?
3) Can this weigh the on/off production. For example, what percentage does x player shoot from y distance when Gobert is on him vs. when Gobert is off the court? When x player is not even playing the Jazz? What about shot frequency- is someone more likely to shoot threes and less 5-footers when Gobert is defending them?

There are a lot of variables here, and this was a good idea.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I love the idea and your username. TP for that. I have a few questions:
1) Is there any proximity that is taken to account in this (ie: shots made within 5 ft. of the defender), or is it just the percentages of the players being guarded by x player at y time?
2) Did you weigh the final score? For example, if the centers that Henson was guarding this year went 1-2 on threes, would that be any different than a Gobert, for example, having his guys hit 20-40 on threes?
3) Can this weigh the on/off production. For example, what percentage does x player shoot from y distance when Gobert is on him vs. when Gobert is off the court? When x player is not even playing the Jazz? What about shot frequency- is someone more likely to shoot threes and less 5-footers when Gobert is defending them?

There are a lot of variables here, and this was a good idea.

Great questions. Here is the best I have.

1) For the Opponents fg% at the rim, the player must be within 5 feet. Therefore I assume the same is true here, but I do not know.
2) The minimum shot attempts for each of the category was 200 in order to get a large sample size.
3) If you go in the NBA.com player profiles, they have the shooting average for the players when a defender is guarding him vs when he is not, but they do not break down their categories into 8 foot groupings. I cannot find those averages on their website. Although I'm sure their database has that information, I do not think it is available.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

There are to many things going on on the court for these stats to tell who the actual best defender is. I bet the guys who rated as the best, no one would choose them as the best, except for them but that would be egos talking.

Really, how many of the best coaches in the world would choose KD or Curry to defend the best player at their positions if they had their pick of the best? I would put good money on no one choosing them.

I give the side-eye to any stats that suggest they are the best defenders at their position. Going to need a whole lot of stats to convince me they are the best, that and drugs/alcohol.

[pokeKingCurtis]

Well done.

This actually fits into how KO's real plus or minus (or was it plus or minus) is highest on our team. He's not the quickest or the most springy, but the dude hustles hard. Not the sexiest defender but he gets the job done. Plus, he also defends second stringers so that may have inflated his stats a little more. Still, KO's my boy.

[chilidawg]

Nice work.  The RPM stat is useful because it does adjust for the quality of opponent, so a guy like holiday can't inflate his numbers by playing against lesser offensive players.  It does however correlate pretty well with your numbers.  It would be interesting to rank your list by RPM and your percentage numbers and see how it looks then.

[BudweiserCeltic]

There are no amount of stats to convince me that Olynyk is a good defender.

[Csfan1984]

There are no amount of stats to convince me that Olynyk is a good defender.

Fouling can stop a guy from directly scoring on ya 

[fairweatherfan]

Interesting stats, but the major confound is that guys like Olynyk and Henson spend more time guarding opponents' bench players, whereas Howard, Gasol, Whiteside. those kind of guys mainly guard starters, and often the best big man to boot.  This also doesn't account for ball denial or help, which are key parts of defense - you don't have to make a man miss to defend him well. 

[Celtics4ever]

I don't know anything about the stats but KO is a second year player, not third.

  He is what 24 though which is a little older than most guys his age.  KO at least tries to defend and you can see it.   Sulliinger was bad and he is even a worse defender now.  Bass is a tweener but a nice athlete.   Zeller is a backup and nice one.

We need some frontcourt talent I think most of us agree.

[Celtics18]

I don't know anything about the stats but KO is a second year player, not third.

  He is what 24 though which is a little older than most guys his age.  KO at least tries to defend and you can see it.   Sulliinger was bad and he is even a worse defender now.  Bass is a tweener but a nice athlete.   Zeller is a backup and nice one.

We need some frontcourt talent I think most of us agree.

Nice.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

There are no amount of stats to convince me that Olynyk is a good defender.

What do you want? His steal rate is pretty good for a big (5th among all centers). His defensive plus-minus is solid (21st among centers). The players he guards shoot at a below average rate. His OFG% at the rim is average (on par with Vucevic, Giannis, Mi Plumlee, West, Garnett, and Nowitzki).

Give me a stat that proves he is a bad defender?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

There are no amount of stats to convince me that Olynyk is a good defender.

Fouling can stop a guy from directly scoring on ya 

Fouls are not taken into account with field goal percentage.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Interesting stats, but the major confound is that guys like Olynyk and Henson spend more time guarding opponents' bench players, whereas Howard, Gasol, Whiteside. those kind of guys mainly guard starters, and often the best big man to boot.  This also doesn't account for ball denial or help, which are key parts of defense - you don't have to make a man miss to defend him well.

That may or may not be true. No rotation is fixed. Olynyk plays against starters some games and bench players others. There is no real way to prove or disprove that point.