I think he's going to be a superstar long-term. I think it was just frustrating for him not being able to play basketball. He's been fine the last couple months. Will be exciting to see him in summer league. It will not take long to shut up the naysayers who desperately want to compare him to Greg Oden.
I understand why you think this, and you could be right, but I honestly just don't think he will be that good.
When I was watching pre-draft material on the 2014 draft class I saw a guy who dominated over his college brethren due to his physical gifts, but who also looked to be quite raw, a little lazy and a bit of a bone head.
In the NBA guys rarely become dominant superstars based on freakish physical gifts alone. the guys who really dominate tend to have an incredible skill set, an extremely high Basketball IQ, or an unbreakable work ethic - I don't really see any of that in Embiid.
Embiid's only elite asset right now is the array of physical gifts he's been blessed with, but that isn't as big a benefit in the NBA as it is in college, and even those gifts are put to risk by his injury history. His skill set is versatile, but also very raw. His basketball IQ is very lacking, and his level of effort / motivation looks questionable.
I think Embiid will be a solid player, probably a good starter in this league. Not sure he'll be much more than that. I'm thinking he'll be a 13 point, 9 rebound, 2.5 block type of guy - kind of a shorter, more mobile version of Roy Hibbert.
Self thought Embiid could be the #1 pick in 2016 or 2017. Instead he was competing for #1 in 2015 until his injury. You don't improve as quickly as Embiid did with low basketball IQ. If he can stay healthy, Embiid has all the tools to be a star.
That's funny, because Fab Melo improved dramatically from his first college season to his second as well - that's what had people so curious about his potential.
Didn't work out so well.
Obviously Embiid is not Fab Melo, but the point is you don't need to have high IQ to improve that way.
Look at Embiid play - watch the number of unforced turnovers and the number of poor decisions he makes are pretty clear to see.
Last season he averaged 5.3 fouls per 36 minutes, 3.7 turnovers per 36 minutes, and had an assist/TO ratio of 0.5 - those figures should tell you all you need to know about his basketball IQ on both ends of the floor.
Also those figures are in college competition, against guys who he was absolutely physically dominant over. So how do you think he will fare in the NBA, when he suddenly finds he's not so big/long/athletic compared to everybody else, and when every guy in the league is smarter than he is?
For comparison purposes, Nerlens Noel (who wasn't know for his offensive game, and has struggled on that end of the floor in the NBA) in his final college year had an assist/TO ratio of 0.84, averaged 2.1 turnovers per 36 minutes, and averaged 2.9 fouls per 36 minutes.
Noel was also a more dominant force defensively than Embiid was.
It's still not out of the question that Embiid could become a star, but I just don't think he'll be as good as people expect - much like Wiggins hasn't become the next Lebron (as people suspected).
I actually watched around a dozen Kansas games. How many did you watch? Embiid was in his 1st and only college season. Embiid was getting called for a bunch of fouls at the beginning of the year so he initially was coming off the bench. Once he got the fouls under control, he started and became Kansas' best player. Embiid was a focal point of the Kansas offense. I don't believe that was the case with Noel at Kentucky. So Embiid having more turnovers isn't surprising. Also offensive fouls count as turnovers so that would contribute to Embiid's higher turnovers.
You could argue an offensive foul is the worst type of turnover - it's a turnover and a foul in one play. That doesn't help his case.
Also touches doesn't really matter, because this isn't just turnovers we're talking about - it's assists per turnover. If a guy gets more touches, his assists should go up at a similar rate. Embiid's AST/TO rate is almost half that of Nerlens Noel. His AST numbers on their own are about the same, despite the fact that (as you said) he featured for more in his team's offense.
Plus as I said before, It's not like Noel is known for being a skilled passer or offensive player - he's been criticised a lot this year for his poor IQ and lack of offensive skills.
Yeah, there are NBA bigs who are superstars who average lots of turnovers. Demarcus Cousins is one. But although Cousins averages about 4.5 turnovers per 36 minutes, he also averages about 3.8 assists per 36 minutes...so his assist to turnover ratio (0.84) is about on par with Noel. That somewhat justified his turnovers because he's touching the ball a lot, hence why he's also getting a lot of assists.
I notice you didn't answer whether you actually watched any of Embiid's games at Kansas. Any turnover is bad but the worst turnovers are live ball turnovers because they often give opponents fast break opportunities. Getting an assist requires that the person taking the shot actually make the shot. For much of the season, Kansas guard play and outside shooting was pretty poor. Embiid is certainly raw and inexperienced but from the games I watched throwing the low basketball IQ tag on him is totally misplaced.
I didn't watched Noel in college so I can't reasonably compare his college play to Embiid's. However I have watched Noel this season and to my surprise he is a pretty good passer for a big man.
Topic: more Embiid work ethic problems (Read 13301 times)