Opening game Spread -11.5

[Beat LA]

Wow, people actually believe that the games will be that close, lol?

[CelticsFanFromNYC]

We all know who is the favourite in this series.
What is the point of repeating it over and over again?
Just saying...

 I think the point of the OP's thread was just to show a sort a picture of where the Celtics  stand in a fight with the Cavs and how the rest of the world perceives this team going into the playoffs on paper. not to talk about who is the favorite or rant bout it

Just saying

[celticsclay]

11.5 point underdogs....I know upsets can occur and games can actually be closer

but 11.5 point underdogs is not a good look for us.

This means even at home they will be at least 6.5 point favorites.

If we win this series, it will be the biggest upset in the History of the NBA , no over exaggeration. According to lines makers.

Do you actually know much about line setting? Unless the Celtics get absolutely blown away in both losses the line will be a lot closer to 4 than 6.5. It is possible it could get to 6 if the series is split, but based on this line alone the 6.5 is not accurate.

[konkmv]

Its logic... we are underdogs.. but we will win..hahahahaha

[celtics2030]

11.5 point underdogs....I know upsets can occur and games can actually be closer

but 11.5 point underdogs is not a good look for us.

This means even at home they will be at least 6.5 point favorites.

If we win this series, it will be the biggest upset in the History of the NBA , no over exaggeration. According to lines makers.

What are you talking about


Do you actually know much about line setting? Unless the Celtics get absolutely blown away in both losses the line will be a lot closer to 4 than 6.5. It is possible it could get to 6 if the series is split, but based on this line alone the 6.5 is not accurate.

What are you talking about. Come to think of it, im actually more wrong with the 6.5 line.

The Cavs might even be 7.5 or 8 point favorites against us at home. I will stick with 6.5 but , depending on what they do these 1st two games, it could go higher.

Your crazy if you think Cavs will only be 4 point favorites.

[celticsclay]

So it is 4 or 4.5 in most sites for most sites. Do
I get a tp for nailing it?  I could do a whole separate thread on how this stuff works. The casual fan and picking lines are generally not a good fit.

[celticsclay]

This was a bit over the top so I reigned it in. Go celtics.

[jambr380]

Anybody else find it interesting in game 1 that a Phil Pressey garbage-time missed lay-up was the difference between somebody winning or losing a bet? If he had made the basket, they would have lost by 11 and been within the spread.

This was most likely covered in another thread, but it was on my mind after game 1 and I saw this thread come up this morning.

[celtics2030]

So it is 4 or 4.5 in most sites for most sites. Do
I get a tp for nailing it?  I could do a whole separate thread on how this stuff works. The casual fan and picking lines are generally not a good fit.

Where is it 4? It's 5 mostly and 4.5 in some. No Tommy point for lying.

[celtics2030]

the Celtics played very well both games and thus the linesmakers  have rewarded them. The spread would easily have been 6 6.5 if they got blown out by 20 or more.

Same thing happened with Kentucky when they almost got beat by notre dame. Spread in the next game was way lower than it would have been if they had beaten up on them.

[celticsclay]

So it is 4 or 4.5 in most sites for most sites. Do
I get a tp for nailing it?  I could do a whole separate thread on how this stuff works. The casual fan and picking lines are generally not a good fit.

Where is it 4? It's 5 mostly and 4.5 in some. No Tommy point for lying.

It is going to move a half or a full point in both directions throughout the day. It is 4.5 right now on ESPN which is probably the most common place people look (also on 4.5 on CBS sports app). It was 4 last night when I posted. The Celtics failed to cover in game 1 and ended up losing by 8 in game 2, both games were pretty dead on with the spread.  I also wish you would not have said I was a liar because the line moved a half a point overnight. It honestly was available at 4 last night.

[celticsclay]

the Celtics played very well both games and thus the linesmakers  have rewarded them. The spread would easily have been 6 6.5 if they got blown out by 20 or more.

Same thing happened with Kentucky when they almost got beat by notre dame. Spread in the next game was way lower than it would have been if they had beaten up on them.

There are a few things wrong with this. Comparing college games is very different than NBA. There is much more room for changes in perception in college basketball because the teams have played less games overall and even less games against top tier competition. Kentucky for example, while it is a rudimentary metric (Its not worth getting into Ken Pom or Sagarin stuff),  only played 6 teams that were ranked at the time prior to the tournament. When they start playing 3 games against top 20 teams in a row their performance holds more sway than in the NBA after an 82 game season against other professional teams.

I also don't really understand if you are trying to compare Notre Dame's performance against Kentucky with our game against Cleveland. Notre Dame was in the lead pretty much that entire game and was a shot away from missing it (as 7 to 9 point underdogs). The Celtics were down 7 points entering the 4th, never took the lead, and were actually down 10 with Cleveland ball with 30 seconds left with Cleveland having a legit chance to cover. The line was spot on. The idea that this performance dramatically impacted the line for this game is pretty ludicrous. I actually did spread related stuff professionally for a little while (was a lineshopper for someone that made their living on it). Your idea that the Celtics would be up to 8 point underdogs at home was just not realistic.

[fantankerous]

So it is 4 or 4.5 in most sites for most sites. Do
I get a tp for nailing it?  I could do a whole separate thread on how this stuff works. The casual fan and picking lines are generally not a good fit.

Stay classy.

[celticsclay]

So it is 4 or 4.5 in most sites for most sites. Do
I get a tp for nailing it?  I could do a whole separate thread on how this stuff works. The casual fan and picking lines are generally not a good fit.

Stay classy.

I apologize for probably being overly aggressive regarding this topic. Tommy points to you both. I didn't mean to derail the conversation and hopefully we are all just rooting for a celtics win rather than losing a close enough game that they cover.