What's Isaiah Thomas' value this offseason?

[BornReady]

Thomas in a straight up trade for a draft pick isn't getting a pick in the teens and even the low 20's might be a stretch.

If that's the case Danny needs to start selling our late 1sts now, because they're incredibly overvalued.

Yeah, I would be all over trading our late firsts /early 2nds for Thomas caliber players. I understand that players' value in the draft is inflated because of 'potential', but what are the chances a #20 pick is as successful as IT4 at the next level? Pretty slim. I guess that glimmer of hope that a gm will find the next Marc Gasol or DeAndre Jordan will always make an unproven commodity worth more than a proven quality one.

On a related note, I never understood why a gm won't trade a #20 pick for a guy like Thomas, but he will trade the #20 and #23 to move up to #17 - kind of the opposite logic on how valuable individual draft picks are worth.

I guess a Gm could see a guy that they really like available at 17 who might get picked by another team that want him between 17 and 19

[BornReady]

Thomas is worth maybe a mid range first rounder

I doubt Miami would trade as they expect dragic to resign

I also don't think Indy is high on Thomas as Thomas doesn't really fit into their defence first identity

[saltlover]

Thomas in a straight up trade for a draft pick isn't getting a pick in the teens and even the low 20's might be a stretch.

If that's the case Danny needs to start selling our late 1sts now, because they're incredibly overvalued.

Yeah, I would be all over trading our late firsts /early 2nds for Thomas caliber players. I understand that players' value in the draft is inflated because of 'potential', but what are the chances a #20 pick is as successful as IT4 at the next level? Pretty slim. I guess that glimmer of hope that a gm will find the next Marc Gasol or DeAndre Jordan will always make an unproven commodity worth more than a proven quality one.

On a related note, I never understood why a gm won't trade a #20 pick for a guy like Thomas, but he will trade the #20 and #23 to move up to #17 - kind of the opposite logic on how valuable individual draft picks are worth.

I guess a Gm could see a guy that they really like available at 17 who might get picked by another team that want him between 17 and 19

With guaranteed contracts, a salary cap (that is flexible but still restrictive) and only 15 roster spots, a slight upgrade in quality can be more valuable than extra quantity.  Sure, you have a better chance of getting a single successful player out of two guys at 20 and 23 than you do one guy at 17, but if you only have the space to give one guy a chance to make it, then you want pick 17.  Roster spots, not to mention in-season playing time, are a major constraint.

Of course, if you do have the roster space/cap flexibility, you'll happilly trade 17 for 20 and 23, because now you've got a much better chance at getting a useful player, and heck, you might even get two.

If you want to look at teams who might be willing to trade back for bonus picks, look at the teams with a lot of free agents and minimal cap room.  They're going to have need of extra draftees.  Also teams who have no picks in a future year will be certianly interested in moving back this year for one of our extra firsts in the future.

[Future Celtics Owner]

OK everyone. Lets put our smart hats on for a second. IT makes 6m a year, there is value just in that. Then you add his talent. With the bump in the cap teams will be looking for deals so they can get multiple FA's.

contract amount, number of years, and talent level are the prime things teams will be looking at.

[saltlover]

OK everyone. Lets put our smart hats on for a second. IT makes 6m a year, there is value just in that. Then you add his talent. With the bump in the cap teams will be looking for deals so they can get multiple FA's.

contract amount, number of years, and talent level are the prime things teams will be looking at.

Just for accuracy's sake, he makes close to $7 mil next year, going down a little over $300k per season.  He's still a bargain at that amount, but I do like accuracy.

[Irish Stew]

Unless he is part of a package to acquire a star player, why would you ever want to trade Thomas? For another draft choice? Given the number of picks that will be coming our way over the next few years, why would we trade proven talent on a reasonable contract for even more picks or just a higher pick? We can't reasonably exercise even half of the picks that we will have coming. Thomas was the player most responsible for turning a team with a preseason Vegas over/under of 26.5 wins into a 40 win playoff  team. What are the actual chances of say the tenth player in this years draft being as effective a pro as Thomas? Maybe 25 or 30%? Isn't he at least as likely to be a JAG?

[greg683x]

OK everyone. Lets put our smart hats on for a second. IT makes 6m a year, there is value just in that. Then you add his talent. With the bump in the cap teams will be looking for deals so they can get multiple FA's.

contract amount, number of years, and talent level are the prime things teams will be looking at.

if this is such a no brainer, then why are we so quick to trade him?

if the overwelming majority on here consider trading Thomas for a #10 or 11 pick a no brainer, wouldnt it be silly to think other teams would actually do such a deal?   especially teams that are worse than us.

[More Banners]

IT is a backup point guard.

What's the top end salary for a backup PG?  About what he's making.

Comparing value as a draft pick is odd since he is a unique player. It isn't until the 20's that many folks gladly draft career backups, right?  He just isn't an NBA starter.

[Boris Badenov]

So I ask, what could Isaiah Thomas get us this offseason? I started thinking about this when I proposed we deal him for Indy's #11 pick to send to Sacramento in a Cousins thread. Could he get us Indiana or Miami's 1st?

No.

I don't think his value has gone up much. He was roughly this productive in Sacramento and was still signed to a cheap deal and then moved for a low first round pick.

Nothing Isaiah has done for the C's has been different than what he's done over his career.

I don't think that's true. He's been more productive here.

In SAC he averaged 20ppg in 35 mpg. Here's he's averaging almost as much but in 26 minutes per game. His scoring rate has gone from 21.1 to 26.4 on a per-36 basis, at the same efficiency and as the focal point of the offense. He's also averaging 7.5 assists per-36 instead of 6.5.

For comparison the only players since 2000 to average 26+pp36 and 6+ap36 (regardless of minutes played) are Lebron, Wade, Westbrook, Curry, Harden, and Allen Iverson.

Could he do it at 32-36 minutes per game? Who knows. But I think it's certainly true that his offensive production while on the Celtics has been at a significantly higher level than he's previously shown.

[jambr380]

IT is a backup point guard.

What's the top end salary for a backup PG?  About what he's making.

Comparing value as a draft pick is odd since he is a unique player. It isn't until the 20's that many folks gladly draft career backups, right?  He just isn't an NBA starter.

I think you are really selling IT short by calling just a backup point guard. He is likely to be 6th man of the year and his impact on our flailing franchise was obvious. You can't change his height, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been as effective as many star players in this league.

As for trading him, it would have to a GREAT deal. His contract and his scoring ability is just too valuable for us right now. Other teams should see that, too (meaning, he is worth way more than a late first).

[jambr380]

Thomas in a straight up trade for a draft pick isn't getting a pick in the teens and even the low 20's might be a stretch.

If that's the case Danny needs to start selling our late 1sts now, because they're incredibly overvalued.

Yeah, I would be all over trading our late firsts /early 2nds for Thomas caliber players. I understand that players' value in the draft is inflated because of 'potential', but what are the chances a #20 pick is as successful as IT4 at the next level? Pretty slim. I guess that glimmer of hope that a gm will find the next Marc Gasol or DeAndre Jordan will always make an unproven commodity worth more than a proven quality one.

On a related note, I never understood why a gm won't trade a #20 pick for a guy like Thomas, but he will trade the #20 and #23 to move up to #17 - kind of the opposite logic on how valuable individual draft picks are worth.

I guess a Gm could see a guy that they really like available at 17 who might get picked by another team that want him between 17 and 19

With guaranteed contracts, a salary cap (that is flexible but still restrictive) and only 15 roster spots, a slight upgrade in quality can be more valuable than extra quantity.  Sure, you have a better chance of getting a single successful player out of two guys at 20 and 23 than you do one guy at 17, but if you only have the space to give one guy a chance to make it, then you want pick 17.  Roster spots, not to mention in-season playing time, are a major constraint.

Of course, if you do have the roster space/cap flexibility, you'll happilly trade 17 for 20 and 23, because now you've got a much better chance at getting a useful player, and heck, you might even get two.

If you want to look at teams who might be willing to trade back for bonus picks, look at the teams with a lot of free agents and minimal cap room.  They're going to have need of extra draftees.  Also teams who have no picks in a future year will be certianly interested in moving back this year for one of our extra firsts in the future.

Exactly - and looking at our future draft considerations, we should be in the market of moving up. However, I would certainly trade the Clips pick for an IT caliber player and still use our #16, rather than using the Clips pick to move up to #14. The value just isn't there unless WCS or Stanley Johnson drops.

What Danny did a couple of years ago to acquire KO was much more reasonable - using #16 and two whatev 2nd rounders to move up to #13.

[P stoff]

Its then truly amazing that we had a winning record after the Rondo/Green/ Wright trades for a backup pG (Thomas), a backup PF (Jerebko), backup SF (Crowder) Backup PG (Turner) backup PF (Bass) added to the already acquired backup center (Zeller). 

I would have to look hard to find someone who considers IT a "backup".   He is a great 6th man, and every good team has one. So should we devalue a guy that basically turned the team around because he doesnt currently start?

No top 10 wing or pG in the draft would even BEGIN to have the impact that IT has had for us...and not for a few years if they actually could. 

[BDeCosta26]

IT is a backup point guard.

What's the top end salary for a backup PG?  About what he's making.

Comparing value as a draft pick is odd since he is a unique player. It isn't until the 20's that many folks gladly draft career backups, right?  He just isn't an NBA starter.

Comparing Thomas to other back up PGs doesn't make sense to me. 5 or 6 million May be a good price for Jarret Jack or Shaun Livingston but Thomas isn't comparable to then. He's more comparable to Jamal Crawford whom is a big reason behind the rise of the Clips, and is a defacto starter on that he plays starter minutes and is on the court in crunch time. Some guys are just best served coming off the bench. You talk about being a starter as some plateau of achievement when it's just not that clear cut. I'd much rather have Crawford or Thomas than Dion Waiters or JJ Redick, both of whom start.

Thomas' contract is an absolute steal considering his production. It'll be even more of a steal when the cap goes up. Comparing him to guys like DJ Augustin or any of the other back up PGs in the league is an insult to IT4.

[TheFlex]

IT is a backup point guard.

What's the top end salary for a backup PG?  About what he's making.

Comparing value as a draft pick is odd since he is a unique player. It isn't until the 20's that many folks gladly draft career backups, right?  He just isn't an NBA starter.

Comparing Thomas to other back up PGs doesn't make sense to me. 5 or 6 million May be a good price for Jarret Jack or Shaun Livingston but Thomas isn't comparable to then. He's more comparable to Jamal Crawford whom is a big reason behind the rise of the Clips, and is a defacto starter on that he plays starter minutes and is on the court in crunch time. Some guys are just best served coming off the bench. You talk about being a starter as some plateau of achievement when it's just not that clear cut. I'd much rather have Crawford or Thomas than Dion Waiters or JJ Redick, both of whom start.

Thomas' contract is an absolute steal considering his production. It'll be even more of a steal when the cap goes up. Comparing him to guys like DJ Augustin or any of the other back up PGs in the league is an insult to IT4.

TP.

[GetLucky]

I think he is worth more to the Celtics than any other team. He is a good piece locked up on a good deal whose talent would translate as a contributor on a good team. Perfect for an up-and-coming young team.

Trading Isaiah would be hard because: 1) it'd be hard to match a comparable player's contract to his because it is such a value 2) teams that have the cap space to trade for him will likely go for a big fish in free agency first 3) good teams don't usually have a lot of cap space to trade a pick(s) for a player straight up 4) teams that do have the necessary cap space and high enough draft pick for fair compensation are likely not looking for a guy like Thomas. They are likely looking for younger guys, draft picks, or tankers.