Author Topic: End of Season Decisions  (Read 6186 times)

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End of Season Decisions
« on: April 15, 2015, 01:45:02 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Maybe I am paying more attention to these things this year, or maybe there are more chances for screw ups because of all the draft rights owed with protection. However, we are really seeing in my recollection, an unprecedented level of questionable decisions right now by teams.

Heat
- They may get bailed out by the Jazz winning 7 of their last 10 games, but they have a real legit chance of losing their draft pick. They are currently selecting 10in with a draft pick that is top 10 protected. If Brooklyn loses tonight the Heat beat the 76ers they will have a coin flip determine if they keep the draft slot. If they do, their fans will point to them playing Wade and other beat up veterans major minutes in a home win over Orlando on "fan appreciation night" when they had literally a 2% chance at the playoffs. Note they could of course still lose their draft pick if a team jumps them in the lottery.

Toronto- They had a really legit chance at a 3 seed and the chance to play a sub .500 bucks team in the first round. They chose to rest Derozen, lost by two points to the Celtics and now need to both win and Chicago to lose to avoid a 4-5 matchup with the Wizards.

Knicks - I don't really know if this is a screw up so much as a bad outcome. However, the Knicks won their last two games to move ahead of Minnesota in wins and draw within 1 win of the 76ers. These two wins could be the difference between them having their choice of Towns or Okafor or picking Russel or Winslow instead.

Boston I am belatedly adding in Boston for last night. In a classic situation where the Celtics had nothing to gain, they played a bunch of players heavy minutes and risked injury. Teams do this all the time. Coupled with the fact that they probably earned themselves a worst round matchup and it was fairly dumb.


Separate Category (looking in the mirror)
Jazz - This is kind of a mirror example of what the Celtics have done but with a worse outcome (in my opinion). The Jazz have gone something like 21-10 in their last 31 games moving them out of a number 5 or 6 pick and currently slated to pick 13th. Furthermore, unlike the Celtics they were not getting regular games against the complete drecks of the league during this period so it would have been a lot easier to lose more games than it would have been for the Celtics. Furthermore, their was no chance of making the playoffs by the all-star break playing in the West. They literally just moved from high lottery pick to very back end of it with no upside.

Looking ahead to tonight what teams will win a game they shouldn't and hurt their team's short or long term outlook?


« Last Edit: April 15, 2015, 06:23:27 PM by celticsclay »

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2015, 02:16:03 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Playing your players on fan appreciation night is a mistake? Imagine the fan backlash if they were healthy DNPs.  Honestly, this kind of "lose at all costs, draft picks are all that matter" (not you specifically, but people here in general) really disgusts me.

There's more to running a franchise than just getting a good draft pick

Also: the Jazz are making a mistake by having their team click on all cylinders and play well together? I'm sure the Jazz would rather have good chemistry and their current talent than a higher draft pick
I'm bitter.

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2015, 03:16:01 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Playing your players on fan appreciation night is a mistake? Imagine the fan backlash if they were healthy DNPs.  Honestly, this kind of "lose at all costs, draft picks are all that matter" (not you specifically, but people here in general) really disgusts me.

There's more to running a franchise than just getting a good draft pick

Also: the Jazz are making a mistake by having their team click on all cylinders and play well together? I'm sure the Jazz would rather have good chemistry and their current talent than a higher draft pick
TP - couldn't have said it better.

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2015, 03:16:05 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Playing your players on fan appreciation night is a mistake? Imagine the fan backlash if they were healthy DNPs.  Honestly, this kind of "lose at all costs, draft picks are all that matter" (not you specifically, but people here in general) really disgusts me.

There's more to running a franchise than just getting a good draft pick

Also: the Jazz are making a mistake by having their team click on all cylinders and play well together? I'm sure the Jazz would rather have good chemistry and their current talent than a higher draft pick

A few things

1) I was not even saying they have to do healthy DNPs but they played Luol Deng 40 minutes on knees he has put off having surgery on. That is just stupid. You can play Wade, Dragic and Deng 20 minutes and let them be celebrated by the fans. This is a pretty common strategy around the NBA when your games don't have meaning

2) There is actually fan backlash, but it is not for the reasons you stated. Many many Heat fans are upset their team is risking a top 10 pick for no reason when it would only lose a pick in the 20's next season.

Jazz I put them in a separate category rather than a mistake because I agree with the reasons you stated. However, it is an unfortunate result. I am not sure what they could have done differently because they have actually been winning with d league people the last few games. That being said, they are an interesting team to look at because they have done the same thing as the Celtics without any potential upside of playoff experience.

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2015, 03:32:55 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Playing your players on fan appreciation night is a mistake? Imagine the fan backlash if they were healthy DNPs.  Honestly, this kind of "lose at all costs, draft picks are all that matter" (not you specifically, but people here in general) really disgusts me.

There's more to running a franchise than just getting a good draft pick

Also: the Jazz are making a mistake by having their team click on all cylinders and play well together? I'm sure the Jazz would rather have good chemistry and their current talent than a higher draft pick
TP - couldn't have said it better.

I would hope in all of my posts, particularly the fact that I made and regularly updated a column on our playoff chances before anybody really wanted to discuss it, shows I am not even close to a "lose at all costs" for draft picks mentality. That being said, there is a huge difference between that and doing things like risking injuries for veteran players when nothing can be gained. The fact is, Deng has had knees injuries and multiple aggravations of the same injury in the second half of the season. At one point, he was ruled out for the season only to come back a few days later. I don't see how anyone can say playing him 40 minutes is smart for the involved parties in a practically meaningless end of season game for a sub .500 team.

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybasketball/update/25137186/mri-monday-for-heat-f-luol-deng-knee-season-may-be-over

Wade has also battled knee issues in the second half of the season and reinjured his a few weeks ago.

If the Patriots were playing Tom Brady and he was taking hits in the 3rd quarter of a meaningless game I would be livid (in fact I was pretty livid when he was still in their playoff game when they were up 35 points). Some of that stuff is not about winning or losing it is just properly valuing risk and reward in my mind.

The Heat had no reward, and you can argue somewhat significant risk that two starters with knee injuries that have been repeatedly aggravated could get hurt worst and impact their team next season when they actually have games to play for.

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2015, 03:35:10 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I really think this is being looked at as a lose at all cost when a draft slot is at stake mentality and, I hate to break it to you, but lots if not most of NBA front offices and probably close to none of the coaching staffs have that mentality. The micromanaging of trying to lose as often as possible, heck even to the point of trying to sit players during a certain time of the game because the opposition is playing poorly and your team of choice of winning, just doesn't happen.

The Heat tried to win and make the playoffs. The players and coach and front office don't believe in losing on purpose. From Riley on down, they believe in experienced talented vets and winning and not rookies and losing.

The Knicks had two good games in a row. Derek Fisher isn't about to throw games late just to assure a slightly better shot at the #1 pick. His players were playing well so he let them play.

Boston.... Well really? This team is on full throttle win very game mode. There's no need to sit players to lose games for one playoff slot or two. They want to continue to roll into the playoffs with their killer winning instinct and vibe.

At this point in the season, I just don't understand the micromanaging of the wins and losses just for playoff slots.

As for any team that went on a losing streak and cost them an advantageous playoff seeding? That happens all the time. Not much you can do about it but make the best of it in the playoffs.

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2015, 03:42:29 PM »

Offline Ogaju

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Maybe I am paying more attention to these things this year, or maybe there are more chances for screw ups because of all the draft rights owed with protection. However, we are really seeing in my recollection, an unprecedented level of screw ups right now by teams.

Heat
- They may get bailed out by the Jazz winning 7 of their last 10 games, but they have a real legit chance of losing their draft pick. They are currently selecting 10in with a draft pick that is top 10 protected. If Brooklyn loses tonight the Heat beat the 76ers they will have a coin flip determine if they keep the draft slot. If they do, their fans will point to them playing Wade and other beat up veterans major minutes in a home win over Orlando on "fan appreciation night" when they had literally a 2% chance at the playoffs. Note they could of course still lose their draft pick if a team jumps them in the lottery.

Toronto- They had a really legit chance at a 3 seed and the chance to play a sub .500 bucks team in the first round. They chose to rest Derozen, lost by two points to the Celtics and now need to both win and Chicago to lose to avoid a 4-5 matchup with the Wizards.

Knicks - I don't really know if this is a screw up so much as a bad outcome. However, the Knicks won their last two games to move ahead of Minnesota in wins and draw within 1 win of the 76ers. These two wins could be the difference between them having their choice of Towns or Okafor or picking Russel or Winslow instead.

Boston I am belatedly adding in Boston for last night. In a classic situation where the Celtics had nothing to gain, they played a bunch of players heavy minutes and risked injury. Teams do this all the time. Coupled with the fact that they probably earned themselves a worst round matchup and it was fairly dumb.


Separate Category (looking in the mirror)
Jazz - This is kind of a mirror example of what the Celtics have done but with a worse outcome (in my opinion). The Jazz have gone something like 21-10 in their last 31 games moving them out of a number 5 or 6 pick and currently slated to pick 13th. Furthermore, unlike the Celtics they were not getting regular games against the complete drecks of the league during this period so it would have been a lot easier to lose more games than it would have been for the Celtics. Furthermore, their was no chance of making the playoffs by the all-star break playing in the West. They literally just moved from high lottery pick to very back end of it with no upside.

Looking ahead to tonight what teams will win a game they shouldn't and hurt their team's short or long term outlook?

Like that old philosopher Coach Edwards said... YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2015, 03:57:51 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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The Knicks thing cracks me up.  A couple of my college buddies are Knicks fans and they were upset by the wins.  One of them is a diehard Duke fan so is convinced it'll cost them a shot at Okafor.


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Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2015, 04:06:12 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I really think this is being looked at as a lose at all cost when a draft slot is at stake mentality and, I hate to break it to you, but lots if not most of NBA front offices and probably close to none of the coaching staffs have that mentality. The micromanaging of trying to lose as often as possible, heck even to the point of trying to sit players during a certain time of the game because the opposition is playing poorly and your team of choice of winning, just doesn't happen.

The Heat tried to win and make the playoffs. The players and coach and front office don't believe in losing on purpose. From Riley on down, they believe in experienced talented vets and winning and not rookies and losing.

The Knicks had two good games in a row. Derek Fisher isn't about to throw games late just to assure a slightly better shot at the #1 pick. His players were playing well so he let them play.

Boston.... Well really? This team is on full throttle win very game mode. There's no need to sit players to lose games for one playoff slot or two. They want to continue to roll into the playoffs with their killer winning instinct and vibe.

At this point in the season, I just don't understand the micromanaging of the wins and losses just for playoff slots.

As for any team that went on a losing streak and cost them an advantageous playoff seeding? That happens all the time. Not much you can do about it but make the best of it in the playoffs.

First: Are you completely ignoring the injury risk of this? Players can and do get injured all the time and all teams sit beat up or injured players when there is nothing to play for. Half the league is shut down right now with minor injuries they would play through in more meaningful games. Miami was the exception to that rather than the rule.

As for your point I bolded that is just flat out wrong. Here are a couple of examples I found in a few second cause it does happen and happens so frequently. (and you should know this as a Celtics fan)

"I remember one game in particular, when David Wesley was hitting jump shots and 3-pointers all over the floor," Carr said. "I had to get him out of the game.

"He came over to me and said, 'Coach, what are you doing? I just hit four shots in a row.' I said, 'I know, David, but I'm experimenting.'


"There was one game where I had like 30 points through three quarters," Fox recalled. "We got a lead and I was thinking, 'Finally, we're getting a win.' But then I had to sit down for seven minutes of the fourth quarter and watch it all slip away.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9434966/for-boston-celtics-tanking-likely-necessary-never-easy

From Rickey Davis describing the season before the Cavs got Lebron
""It was tough on [Lucas]. They were forcing him to lose and I know it's nothing he wanted to do. It's just the position he was forced in. But it's tough. ... It worked, whatever they did [to get James] so it's hard to knock them. They got what they wanted. But it was hard on Luke."

From 2006 when the Suns through a late season game to ensure matchup with Lakers in playoffs

"The Suns believe that the Lakers' transition defense is close to nonexistent and will provide an open highway for the Nash-led fast break, so this was the matchup they wanted. [Suns coach Mike] D'Antoni couldn't precisely orchestrate it -- not in an eighty-two-game season -- but the coach had benched [Steve] Nash and Raja Bell for that late-season game, all but assuring a Laker win that would help them beat out the Sacramento Kings, who were in eighth place."

From when the wolves had a top ten protected pick they were at risk of losing (similar to heat this year)
"The NBA should take a look at this one in the interest of the game's integrity and paying customers. Minnesota needs to have one of the top 10 poorest records to keep its draft pick. Otherwise, it goes to the Clippers from the Sam Cassell-Marko Jaric deal.

In a 103-95 loss to the Jazz at home on Friday, [Kevin] Garnett sat out the fourth quarter after making all of his third-quarter shots. Garnett had 13 rebounds through three quarters, and Minnesota was outrebounded 18-6 in the fourth.

It's reminiscent of the game-throwing days before the draft lottery was started."

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2006-04-10/sports/0604100186_1_mvp-allen-iverson-difference-arena/2

I haven't even discussed the Mark Madsen three pointer games, but pretty tough to argue with players coaches and executives on the record saying it does happen. So yea..

Edit:

Oh another more recent example from the Celtics before the Durant draft

Ryan Gomes had 13 through three quarters, but watched from the bench in the fourth as Boston clinched the worst record in the Eastern Conference and second worst in the league.

"I probably (would have played), but since we were in the hunt for a high draft pick, of course things are different," Gomes said. "I understand that. Hopefully things get better. Now that we clinched at least having the second-most balls in the lottery, the last three games we'll see what happens. We'll see if we can go out and finish some games."
« Last Edit: April 15, 2015, 04:12:52 PM by celticsclay »

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2015, 04:33:09 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Perhaps. I should have added "as often as you think". Yeah it has happened but it's not that common. It really isn't.

As for the risk of injury thing, if you are sitting players to tank, like the Kings are now, then you use the excuse of reducing the chance of injury. That's all it is is an excuse. You are tanking. If you are in the playoffs and your seeding doesn't matter, then you are doing it to give your players some rest, not to reduce the nance of injury. If teams or coaches or players are sitting players to reduce the chance they are going to injured they are selling you something because these people play professional sports for a living. They aren't afraid of getting injured. It's part of being a pro.

So in review, I really don't think any of your examples are examples of a team screwing up. They did what they did and the results are what they are. Simply put, this micromanaging to lose just isn't as common as the "growing up playing NBA2K in Franchise mode and it's win it all or tank tank tank" generation thinks it is.

BTW, celticsclay, I am not saying you are part of that group of people that think that way but this site is littered with people who are.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2015, 05:02:15 PM by nickagneta »

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2015, 05:10:58 PM »

Offline thirstyboots18

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Perhaps. I should have added "as often as you think". Yeah it has happened but it's not that common. It really isn't.



So in review, I really don't think any of your examples are examples of a team screwing up. They did what they did and the results are what they are. Simply put, this micromanaging to lose just isn't as common as the "growing up playing NBA2K in Franchise mode and it's win it all or tank tank tank" generation thinks it is.
  I agree Nick.  Completely.  Coaches want to prove that they can get the best out of their guys, and players who don't have the winning instinct usually don't last in  the pros.  (By-the-way...I was really starting to worry about Kelly O's reticence,  but since his eye injury he seems to have lost his fear and is becoming more aggressive.  Hooray.)
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Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2015, 05:33:48 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Perhaps. I should have added "as often as you think". Yeah it has happened but it's not that common. It really isn't.

As for the risk of injury thing, if you are sitting players to tank, like the Kings are now, then you use the excuse of reducing the chance of injury. That's all it is is an excuse. You are tanking. If you are in the playoffs and your seeding doesn't matter, then you are doing it to give your players some rest, not to reduce the nance of injury. If teams or coaches or players are sitting players to reduce the chance they are going to injured they are selling you something because these people play professional sports for a living. They aren't afraid of getting injured. It's part of being a pro.

So in review, I really don't think any of your examples are examples of a team screwing up. They did what they did and the results are what they are. Simply put, this micromanaging to lose just isn't as common as the "growing up playing NBA2K in Franchise mode and it's win it all or tank tank tank" generation thinks it is.

BTW, celticsclay, I am not saying you are part of that group of people that think that way but this site is littered with people who are.

Perhaps screwing up is the wrong phrase for some of these. In a situation like the Knicks though I am a bit torn on what the coaches should do. I admit it is really hard to do what the coaches have done in the examples I have provided. Especially when it was season long like in the two Celtics chances. However, in the Knicks current situation they had just gotten a morale boosting win. Atlanta was not really playing to win with nothing to play for, and the win was on the guys of backs that will not be part of your franchise moving forward. To me, it would have made a lot more sense for them to give Cleanthony Early more than 12 minutes and Rickey Ledo more than 8. Those guys are both rookies that could theoretically have value for them and be a part of their future. Playing 32 year old Louis Admunson 25 minutes and Jason Smith 36 just seems silly to me based on their current situation.

I am pretty thoroughly anti-tank and I hated the two Celtics seasons I have referenced here. However, I am a bit more neutral when it comes to the last games of a season and there is so much at stake. If the Knicks really do end up with the Russell instead of Towns because of that one single win on the backs of Admunson and Smith and Lance Thomas, isn't that a bit hard to swallow? I understand your arguments against losing, and make many of them when it comes to playing out an entire season. However, there may be a point where the risk reward in a single end of season game becomes so great I have to override that mindset.

 

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2015, 05:50:28 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Perhaps. I should have added "as often as you think". Yeah it has happened but it's not that common. It really isn't.

As for the risk of injury thing, if you are sitting players to tank, like the Kings are now, then you use the excuse of reducing the chance of injury. That's all it is is an excuse. You are tanking. If you are in the playoffs and your seeding doesn't matter, then you are doing it to give your players some rest, not to reduce the nance of injury. If teams or coaches or players are sitting players to reduce the chance they are going to injured they are selling you something because these people play professional sports for a living. They aren't afraid of getting injured. It's part of being a pro.

So in review, I really don't think any of your examples are examples of a team screwing up. They did what they did and the results are what they are. Simply put, this micromanaging to lose just isn't as common as the "growing up playing NBA2K in Franchise mode and it's win it all or tank tank tank" generation thinks it is.

BTW, celticsclay, I am not saying you are part of that group of people that think that way but this site is littered with people who are.

I agree with your premise in general, and teams frequently do shut down players that are not really injured (I think we clearly did this with Pierce in one of our tanking seasons). However, in the case of Deng and Wade I think shutting them down, not only would it not have been an excuse, it would have been the smart thing to do (especially in the case of Deng, Wade maybe less so).

Obviously this requires some degree of speculation cause I am not a Heat team doctor and don't know his exact knees injuries. However, if you have a guy that turns 30 years old tomorrow injuring his knee at the end of march and sits out a game (March 31st), then reinjures the knee (or knees the reports are inconsistent) in April and then is experiencing swelling in his knees after the reinjury, isn't it pretty safe to say he has some banged up knees that could use some rest? Playing that guy 40 minutes 5 days after he may be ruled out for the season in a meaningless game seems like just a meaningless risk for both him and the organization. 

There is a slippery slope here but there is clearly a point where it is not smart to play a player. We have seen teams make the mistakes of playing guys at a risk of injury (Robert Griffin being the most egregious example). I don't think it is fair to say there is a chance the heat did some stupid things down the stretch with their management of these guys.

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2015, 05:50:35 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I heard a lot of complaining last year around here when the Celtics won two late games that a very vocal group here did the same thing you are doing with the Knicks thing, and they basically went haywire because the Celtics didn't lose on purpose.

This player played too much. That player shoul have played more. Stevens should have done this or that. Doesn't he understand how important losing these games are.

Those are some of the things that were bandied about.

Turns out those 2 wins didn't make a difference as the team with 33 wins won the top pick and a couple teams in the top three got the other picks. The C's by that time were solidly entrenched into a position to be neither good enough to have been near the 9th seeding or bad enough to be in the bottom three with those two losses. And, judging from what Ainge has stated, the Celtics pretty much got their guy they wanted all along as long as they weren't getting a top three pick. So those two wins meant nothing.

Sometimes the opposition just stinks. Sometimes the opposition sits players. Sometimes your team just plays great. Looking at that Knicks situation I really think people are overthinking those wins to the nth degree simply because they won a couple games. Heck those wins might put them in the proper place to get that top pick for all we know.

Re: End of Season Screw Ups
« Reply #14 on: April 15, 2015, 06:08:54 PM »

Offline wayupnorth

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I cannot believe how many people are against winning games, or even trying to win games as is the case here.

Kinda makes me sick.

Calling a win a screw up is just sad.