Historically Free Agency is not the way to build a champion

[Moranis]

I think Free Agency is of growing importance. Superstar players move more often nowadays. Contracts are shorter so players available in free agency more often. Larger pools of talent in average free agent class than say 10 years ago.

I think it is a mistake to base too much on the past given the changes in recent years.

I think we will continue to see free agency grow in importance in terms of team building.

It may, it may not.  You can still make a heck of a lot more money signing with the team you are on than leaving and going to another team. 

And the last 8 teams in the playoffs this year really only had 3 major free agent acquisitions on the 8 teams combined, James, Howard, and Milsap (maybe you count Pierce, but he is past his prime and probably not a top 2 player on that team). 

[barefacedmonk]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

[Neurotic Guy]

That's  true.  There are certainly exceptions (Lebron to Miami; Lebron to Cleveland; Shaq to LA), but in general, you build contenders by putting together a strong foundation through the draft and supplementing with smart trades and, to a lesser extent, free agent signings.  Generally, you need to spend smartly, not lavishly, in free agency.

Those exceptions are big exceptions.   5 championships out of the last 16 with the likelihood of a couple more on the way.   So since 2000, about 30% of all championships were directly due to free agent signings. 

Really only the Lakers should ever count on this as a primary strategy.  They will always be able to add big names via FA without much trouble.    Other franchises shouldn't put all their eggs in that basket.

Of course, it seems that the Lakers also always get unnecessary big help from good drafting or lucky ping-pong balls (knew they'd get in the top 3 this year). 

[Donoghus]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

In the Celtics particular situation, its too late to tank and blowing it up isn't really realistic.

Celtics are in a position to continue a slow rebuild.  We just went thru year 2 of it.  Basically, don't overpay third tier talent in free agency and, in the meantime, continue to take on assets in the forms of draft picks and more cap friendly deals (i.e. youth & shorter term deals).  Try & work your magic with these assets via the trade market when the right opportunity is there to strike.  Keep your cap flexibility and also try to address needs in free agency.   

Tanking isn't the magic potion but free agency really isn't either.   

[barefacedmonk]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

In the Celtics particular situation, its too late to tank and blowing it up isn't really realistic.

Celtics are in a position to continue a slow rebuild.  We just went thru year 2 of it.  Basically, don't overpay third tier talent in free agency and, in the meantime, continue to take on assets in the forms of draft picks and more cap friendly deals (i.e. youth & shorter term deals).  Try & work your magic with these assets via the trade market when the right opportunity is there to strike.  Keep your cap flexibility and also try to address needs in free agency.   

Tanking isn't the magic potion but free agency really isn't either.

But don't you have to tank/suck..whatever you want to call it, to gather those assets? Nobody is going to give us a first rounder for someone like Brandon Bass (example).

[Donoghus]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

In the Celtics particular situation, its too late to tank and blowing it up isn't really realistic.

Celtics are in a position to continue a slow rebuild.  We just went thru year 2 of it.  Basically, don't overpay third tier talent in free agency and, in the meantime, continue to take on assets in the forms of draft picks and more cap friendly deals (i.e. youth & shorter term deals).  Try & work your magic with these assets via the trade market when the right opportunity is there to strike.  Keep your cap flexibility and also try to address needs in free agency.   

Tanking isn't the magic potion but free agency really isn't either.

But don't you have to tank/suck..whatever you want to call it, to gather those assets? Nobody is going to give us a first rounder for someone like Brandon Bass (example).

We already did much of that part with the Pierce/KG trade.

[TheTruthFot18]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

Thus we are back to the old argument here. Gather assets and win through the draft or gather assets and win through free agents and trades. Kinda need both, not just one.

[LooseCannon]

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

[barefacedmonk]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

Thus we are back to the old argument here. Gather assets and win through the draft or gather assets and win through free agents and trades. Kinda need both, not just one.

True.

And that's why I think neither side is right (tank vs non-tank). You need to a little bit of this and a little bit of that.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

In the Celtics particular situation, its too late to tank and blowing it up isn't really realistic.

Celtics are in a position to continue a slow rebuild.  We just went thru year 2 of it.  Basically, don't overpay third tier talent in free agency and, in the meantime, continue to take on assets in the forms of draft picks and more cap friendly deals (i.e. youth & shorter term deals).  Try & work your magic with these assets via the trade market when the right opportunity is there to strike.  Keep your cap flexibility and also try to address needs in free agency.   

Tanking isn't the magic potion but free agency really isn't either.

I think this just justifies being mediocre. We have some good prospects but this draft was suppose to get us a center...obv we didn't. Its time to realize that we have no stars and its time to trade our better vet players for picks/prospects. We should be in good lottery position the next 3 years and then we will have the assets to trade or develop.

This is just my opinion, but I want championship sooner rather than later. The Lakers could win 1 more and be tied with us......no one wants that.

[D.o.s.]

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

This is a little more legitimate than the usual fallacy, though, because the NBA's CBAs have always been influenced by the free agency/talent acquisition moves made under the prior agreement, and we're about to hit another lockout/strike.

[Donoghus]

I'm so confused. Tanking isn't the answer according to the OP of the thread that's now been locked. This thread makes a good case (thus far) about free agency not being the answer either. So what is a GM supposed to do? How do you take a team like the Cs from what we are now to a contender?

In the Celtics particular situation, its too late to tank and blowing it up isn't really realistic.

Celtics are in a position to continue a slow rebuild.  We just went thru year 2 of it.  Basically, don't overpay third tier talent in free agency and, in the meantime, continue to take on assets in the forms of draft picks and more cap friendly deals (i.e. youth & shorter term deals).  Try & work your magic with these assets via the trade market when the right opportunity is there to strike.  Keep your cap flexibility and also try to address needs in free agency.   

Tanking isn't the magic potion but free agency really isn't either.

I think this just justifies being mediocre. We have some good prospects but this draft was suppose to get us a center...obv we didn't. Its time to realize that we have no stars and its time to trade our better vet players for picks/prospects. We should be in good lottery position the next 3 years and then we will have the assets to trade or develop.

This is just my opinion, but I want championship sooner rather than later. The Lakers could win 1 more and be tied with us......no one wants that.

There was a loud crowd on these boards that was clamoring for that but was that really the case in the organization, though?  Heck, you have reports of the Celtics wanting to trade up...but for a wing.   A group of people (mostly the WCS crowd) were screaming to draft to fill a need.  Not sure that's really a philosophy that Danny shares when it comes to drafting.

Personally, I think they have plenty of picks the next few years so not sure they really need to see off guys for more picks.   In anything, they need to consolidate a bit which seems to be what Danny was trying to do on draft night but couldn't pull off.

[Moranis]

That's  true.  There are certainly exceptions (Lebron to Miami; Lebron to Cleveland; Shaq to LA), but in general, you build contenders by putting together a strong foundation through the draft and supplementing with smart trades and, to a lesser extent, free agent signings.  Generally, you need to spend smartly, not lavishly, in free agency.

Those exceptions are big exceptions.   5 championships out of the last 16 with the likelihood of a couple more on the way.   So since 2000, about 30% of all championships were directly due to free agent signings. 

Really only the Lakers should ever count on this as a primary strategy.  They will always be able to add big names via FA without much trouble.    Other franchises shouldn't put all their eggs in that basket.

Of course, it seems that the Lakers also always get unnecessary big help from good drafting or lucky ping-pong balls (knew they'd get in the top 3 this year).

It is still just 2 players though.  They just happened to be the best player in the game at the time (or soon after in the case of Shaq) the acquisition via free agency.  They are also the only 2 players to be a top 2 player on a championship team in the entire history of the NBA to be acquired via free agency (unless you count Billups, which I do not as I think he was the 4th best player on that team, NBA Finals MVP aside - you know like Iggy this year).   

[GreenGoggles]

So, let me get this straight:

1. When we don't have a high draft pick you don't win in the NBA by tanking, the draft is a crapshoot.

2. When we have cap space but all-star free agents won't sign with us you don't win in the NBA by signing free agents.

3. When teams won't trade with us you don't win by trading away all your picks!

How do we win exactly?

[cltc5]

So, let me get this straight:

1. When we don't have a high draft pick you don't win in the NBA by tanking, the draft is a crapshoot.

2. When we have cap space but all-star free agents won't sign with us you don't win in the NBA by signing free agents.

3. When teams won't trade with us you don't win by trading away all your picks!

How do we win exactly?

Magic