Taking a look at Brook Lopez

[MJohnnyboy]

The way he's been playing lately, yes I'd look at Brook Lopez. The way he's been for the past few years? Absolutely not. Chronic foot problems are not a good thing. Lopez brings an offensive presence, but his injury history is too troubling for me to want to take a flier. Not to mention I'm not sure if Brook's the solution as the rim protector.

[PAOBoston]

Too much money for a guy who's almost guaranteed to miss some time every year. Also,not sure he really fits the system.

[celts10]

That's one way of looking at it.  The other way is that he was healthy, then got a debilitating injury and was never the same

I don't think there are any lingering effects of his injuries, at least on a playing level. Next year will be the test though, if he goes down again then he will be a case of damaged goods.

[Eddie20]

He's not going to opt out.

If he does (and he won't), I would absolutely look at him. And then check him and his agent into serious sessions with the psychologist of my choice.

Why wouldn't he? He's been playing exceptionally well since the break and there will be suitors this summer. Moreover, he can sign a long term deal this summer, with a player option after the first year. This way he gets long term security from the new deal, but also allows him to take advantage of the new CBA deal should he have a solid/injury free year.

I just went over the "why" Lopez won't opt out in another thread so I won't rehash the argument here, but to the bolded: No, he can't.
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q59


Assuming that Lopez and/or his agent knows how the CBA works, he won't opt out of his contract.

That's a short sighted assumption. Opting out this summer would allow him to get more money than he would simply by playing next season and risking another setback injury wise. A potential 4 year deal would provide long term security, and given his potential health risk, probably the wisest approach. This is regardless of any rule prohibiting him being able to opt out.

What would you take? High risk...16.7M for next season and hoping you are injury free for a bigger payday in the summer or taking 60M over 4 years (a very modest figure actually)?

I'll refer you to this thread here:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=77259.0

But you can find the crux of the discussion in this exchange, which is giving me deja vu:

Why would Lopez opt out, though?

Considering his frequent health issues, he might want to opt out to get the security of a multi-year deal.

That's exactly why he wouldn't opt out -- he's going to get another contract after this one, failing a career-ending injury, and as an offensively gifted center operating after a massive increase to the salary cap, he's not going to be left starving.

What he won't get is a fully guaranteed $16 million next year if he does leave the Nets.

I didn't say Lopez was necessarily going to leave the Nets.  Just that he might opt out for a multi-year deal.  If a team isn't going to give him $16 mil guaranteed next year, why would they do it the following year?   

they wouldn't, which was his point.  He takes the 16 million next year and just enters free agency the year after, where he will sign a 4 year deal in the same general neighborhood of a 4 year deal he would sign this summer, except that he wouldn't have 16 million.

Speaking of assumptions, there  are several that are being made in the line of thinking that Lopez will opt out, some of them are best left to medical professionals with access to his vitals, and some of them are being made without a real thought (IMO) into just how much the salary cap is going to increase.

D.o.s., you were saying?

Zach Lowe-

Most execs expect Lopez to opt out and enter free agency after rampaging across the league over the last month.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-groupon-games-which-players-are-the-next-free-agent-steals/
(it's in the last paragraph of the Teletovic part)

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. That's the nature of having an opinion, however informed it may be, none of us can tell the future.  Rest assured I won't be so petty as to bump the thread if he opts in. 

I'd love to talk to Zach about the rationale behind the statement, though. As it stands it's kind of a tossed off sentence that doesn't really relate to this discussion (in fact, it's fairly "multiple sauces" at this point).

I normally wouldn't have posted it, but you were really adamant in saying he would not opt out. In fact, you suggested him and his agent should be institutionalized if they did, despite his injury history suggesting he should play it safe and take the certain money this summer. The rationale behind the statement is straight forward. Lopez is a huge injury risk so the smart move is to take the money this summer rather than risking another foot injury and ending up with next to nothing.

A little more on it...

Barring an unforeseen development, however, Lopez will wind up doing what sources on both sides, as well as around the league, have been saying for months: choose to enter free agency and secure a long-term deal after a successful return from a second fracture of the fifth metatarsal in his right foot.

http://nypost.com/2015/05/02/is-brook-lopez-returning-to-the-nets-he-doesnt-know/

[Birdman]

His history of injuries will hurt him with getting a big contract..i would pass on him

[SHAQATTACK]

It's a 50 /50 gamble .   He is healthy now , but certainly will be hurt again .   Can he make it to playoffs next year .

I see Lakers taking Rondo and Lopez .....they need TV appeal or household names out on the court to support their TV appeal contracts.