Author Topic: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel  (Read 38014 times)

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Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #60 on: April 01, 2015, 05:02:27 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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D.o.s.,  are you down on Nerlens too?  Is it grand hyperbole for me to compare him to Anthony Davis?  Is it unthinkable that Nerlens will develop into a superior defensive talent?

I only watch the 76ers when the NCAA is the lone alternative, so I haven't had much of a chance to see Noel play this season. I have, however, seen a lot of Anthony Davis, who is impressive, so the bar would seem to be pretty high. The numbers, as this thread has shown, can be argued both ways.

To answer your questions in order: I simply don't know enough about the player to feel legitimate in commenting on his potential; it seems to me like you're unintentionally setting Noel up to fail with the comparison; and I don't think it's unthinkable, just unlikely.
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Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #61 on: April 01, 2015, 05:09:20 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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D.o.s.,  are you down on Nerlens too?  Is it grand hyperbole for me to compare him to Anthony Davis?  Is it unthinkable that Nerlens will develop into a superior defensive talent?

This is 3 completely different questions

1) I am not down on Nerlens, I think he is looking like a potential beast on the boards and will be an awesome, potentially all-defensive team level defensive player

2) Yes it is grand hyperbole to compare the two. Davis will most likely win multiple MVP awards and will be an all star every year for the next ten years. Noel is not on this level.

3) See answer number 1

You don't seem to getting how all 3 of these things can be true.

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #62 on: April 01, 2015, 05:21:24 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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D.o.s, it doesn't really surprise me that you'd be so ho-hum about Noel's potential.   I had a couple interns here at Grantland scour this blog for some of our old correspondence.  Let me take you back two years ago to May 2013.   Anthony Davis had just finished up his "ho-hum" rookie season averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds.   I was prancing around singing praises about Davis and blatantly calling him the "second coming of Kevin Garnett" using some of the same basic analytics I'm using today to discuss Nerlens Noel and getting many of the same incredulous responses.  Meanwhile, KG and Pierce were still toiling away on a mediocre dead-end Celtic squad that was in dire need of a shake-up (they were traded to Brooklyn two months later).

Here was I post I made about the New Orleans Hornets (pre-Pelicans) and how the NBA (previously acting owner of the team) did them a favor by vetoing the Chris Paul Lakers trade. 

Look at it this way... The New Orleans Hornets initially were set to trade Chris Paul for a package that would net them  Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Goran Dragic. 

The NBA (acting owner of the Hornets) smartly declined the trade.  WHy?  ... well it was simple really.  It wasn't petty.  It wasn't corruption.  It was "baskeball reasons" and those "basketball reasons" made a heck of a lot of sense.  Short-sighted fans looked at that trade and said, "That's not a bad deal!  That's a lot of talent... they could make the playoffs with that talent!"  ... And sure, maybe they would.  But they were eliminating a Top-5 player in Chris Paul and replacing him with a bunch of mediocre fringe-stars.  None of those guys were all-stars.  At most they would have won 35-45 games.  Meanwhile, they would have saddled themselves with 100 million dollars worth of bad salary if they made that deal... they would have ruined any shot of drafting a franchise player... and they would have stuck themself into a rut of perpetual mediocrity.

At the time, I thought the veto made TOTAL sense.  In retrospect, it made even more sense.  Odom was a travesty in Dallas.  Scola was so mediocre, his team didn't mind amnestying him.  K-Mart is currently coming off the bench.  I like Dragic, but Dragic isn't an impact player.

The alternative?  Young Eric Gordon, the pick that became #10 (Austin Rivers) and most importantly... addition-by-subtraction... putting yourself in position to tank and land a top 5 pick (the superstar scratch ticket).   Now, Gordon and Rivers so far look underwhelming... but that superstar scratch ticket nabbed them the second coming of Kevin Garnett (Anthony Davis)I'd gladly take that Hornets roster over ours... Davis is the future.  You absolutely can build a contender around Anthony Davis if he develops the way we expect him to.

"Running it back" is akin to accepting that Scola/Odom/Martin/Dragic trade.  You'll put yourself in a fine position to win 45 games.   If KG/PP retire and we decide to march out a team built around Rondo, Green, Bradley, Bass and Sully... you're looking at a 25-38 win team.  Best case:  1st round exist.  Worst case:  Mid-Lotto.

As much as I love Rondo, there isn't a single player on this team you can build a contender around.  There is no Anthony Davis on this squad.  We're severely lacking in quality assets... Bradley alone probably wouldn't net a lotto pick.  Sully was a late 1st rounder for a reason.  Beyond that, there's nothing on this team in terms of value.  The contracts of Bass, Terry and Lee are borderline terrible.  Green is alright, but will never be an all-star.   If KG and Pierce retire, you're looking at a perpetually mediocre team.  Too good to suck.  Too bad to contend.

A couple notes.  I appear to be right about Davis developing into a KG-level force.  I appeared to be right about Bradley's trade value (just was reported we were offered late 1sts for him this season).  I was right about Green never becoming an all-star.  I was right that a team of Rondo, Green, Bradley, Bass and Sully gets you about 28-38 wins.   On the flip side, I may have undersold Dragic (maybe) and may have underestimated Lord Ainge's ability to get miracle value for ancient KG/Pierce, but two years later the "perpetually mediocre team" warning seems pretty prophetic... my friend Zach wrote an article about that just yesterday:  http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-playoff-problem-if-the-celtics-are-trying-to-rebuild-then-why-the-postseason-push/ 

So what was your response, D.o.s? 

Firstly, I like the way you bury the caveats all through your post. It's a nice rhetorical strategy.

It happens first when you call Davis the second coming of KG, and then spend another ten or so words before you acknowledge the point that he has to develop the way you think he will in order for that statement to make sense.

*sigh*...  Now here we are again two years later and people in this forum are calling me a troll for daring to mention Nerlens Noel in the same sentence as sacred Anthony Davis.   I don't get it. 

Footnote... Later in that same thread I said:

Quote
Let me pause for a second.  I'd argue that MKG has more trade value than Rondo.  I'd also argue that their pick (projected #2 in this draft) also has more trade value than Rondo. 

To which AB_Celtic responded:  "Just false".    Nah... Judging by the mediocre haul we received for Rondo and how those within the league rave about MKG's defensive dominance (still only 21 years old) and improved offensive game, I think it's fair to say I was probably right on that one as well. 


Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #63 on: April 01, 2015, 05:30:31 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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In the spirit of transparency, I'd like to point out that your post, the one you've self-referentially quoted (very Simmons-y, that), began with this sentence:

In the spirit of this thread... I'd argue that the Charlotte Bobcats are closer to winning a championship than this team.

It's the short-view vs long-view.

At first, that sounds crazy-town.

Look at it this way... The New Orleans Hornets initially were set to trade Chris Paul for a package that would net them  Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Goran Dragic. 

The NBA (acting owner of the Hornets) smartly declined the trade.  WHy?  ... well it was simple really.  It wasn't petty.  It wasn't corruption.  It was "baskeball reasons" and those "basketball reasons" made a heck of a lot of sense.  Short-sighted fans looked at that trade and said, "That's not a bad deal!  That's a lot of talent... they could make the playoffs with that talent!"  ... And sure, maybe they would.  But they were eliminating a Top-5 player in Chris Paul and replacing him with a bunch of mediocre fringe-stars.  None of those guys were all-stars.  At most they would have won 35-45 games.  Meanwhile, they would have saddled themselves with 100 million dollars worth of bad salary if they made that deal... they would have ruined any shot of drafting a franchise player... and they would have stuck themself into a rut of perpetual mediocrity.

At the time, I thought the veto made TOTAL sense.  In retrospect, it made even more sense.  Odom was a travesty in Dallas.  Scola was so mediocre, his team didn't mind amnestying him.  K-Mart is currently coming off the bench.  I like Dragic, but Dragic isn't an impact player.

The alternative?  Young Eric Gordon, the pick that became #10 (Austin Rivers) and most importantly... addition-by-subtraction... putting yourself in position to tank and land a top 5 pick (the superstar scratch ticket).   Now, Gordon and Rivers so far look underwhelming... but that superstar scratch ticket nabbed them the second coming of Kevin Garnett (Anthony Davis).  I'd gladly take that Hornets roster over ours... Davis is the future.  You absolutely can build a contender around Anthony Davis if he develops the way we expect him to.

"Running it back" is akin to accepting that Scola/Odom/Martin/Dragic trade.  You'll put yourself in a fine position to win 45 games.   If KG/PP retire and we decide to march out a team built around Rondo, Green, Bradley, Bass and Sully... you're looking at a 25-38 win team.  Best case:  1st round exist.  Worst case:  Mid-Lotto.

As much as I love Rondo, there isn't a single player on this team you can build a contender around.  There is no Anthony Davis on this squad.  We're severely lacking in quality assets... Bradley alone probably wouldn't net a lotto pick.  Sully was a late 1st rounder for a reason.  Beyond that, there's nothing on this team in terms of value.  The contracts of Bass, Terry and Lee are borderline terrible.  Green is alright, but will never be an all-star.   If KG and Pierce retire, you're looking at a perpetually mediocre team.  Too good to suck.  Too bad to contend.

Compare that to the Bobcats position.  They have 9 players 26 years old and younger. 

Kemba Walker - Solid young player (22 years old) ... was the 9th pick in 2011.  2nd year player currently averaging 18 points and 6 assists and 2 steals on a bad team.  Good asset.

Gerald Henderson - Good young SG (25 years old) with proper size (6'5 215)... was the 12th pick in 2009.  Averaged 15.5 points and 4 rebounds. Solid asset.

Bismack Biyomobo - Good young big. (20 years old).  Was the 7th pick in 2011.  Averaged 7 boards and 2 blocks.  Solid asset.

Michael Kidd-Gilcrest - Only 19 years old.  Was the 2nd pick this year.  Was one of the top rookies in the league in terms of efficiency.  He's one of the best young prospects in the league.  Elite asset.

Byron Mullins and Jeff Taylor also have some value...

Additionally, they have the 2nd best odds in this upcoming draft... which means they could luck into Nerlens Noel.

Let me pause for a second.  I'd argue that MKG has more trade value than Rondo.  I'd also argue that their pick (projected #2 in this draft) also has more trade value than Rondo. 

Let's take it a step further... that team has all their key players locked into rookie deals.  They have boatloads of cap space.

And most importantly, they'll stink again next year... meaning they'll be one of the frontrunners to land a top 5 pick in the HUGE 2014 draft (with Andrew Wiggins the star player).   

With the Bobcats, you're looking at a team who (if properly managed) could be a contender within the next 4 years.  THey are LOADED with young assets and cap space.  Danny Ainge would be salivating to have that kind of flexibility.  That's the kind of assets you either build a contender around (the OKC route) or you flip for established vets (the 2007 Celtics route).   

Boston, on the other hand, is in a very poor position to contend in the short and long term.   For all of these reasons, I'd argue that the Charlotte Bobcats are far closer to contending than the Boston Celtics are.  Yes, Boston might make the playoffs for a the next couple years (and get walloped by the contenders) while in the short term the Bobcats will remain a lotto team... but if I had to put money on one of these teams winning a title in 2018... I'd put money on the Bobcats.

So, no, you weren't wrong about Davis, and I still admire your rhetorical strategy. That much hasn't changed over the last two years. Of course, neither has your writing style. And, also, we were talking about the Bobcats.

Furthermore, if you look at our exchange, you'll see this:

Firstly, I like the way you bury the caveats all through your post. It's a nice rhetorical strategy.

It happens first when you call Davis the second coming of KG, and then spend another ten or so words before you acknowledge the point that he has to develop the way you think he will in order for that statement to make sense.

That extends out to your vision of the Bobcats and their tank adventure--namely, I would say that you don't give the "if properly managed" portion of that plan enough credit. Hiding it in a parenthetical statement doesn't change the fact that anyone can blow a team up. It remains to be seen if Rich Cho can build a better one.

That said, I think that Charlotte made the right decision in blowing it up. While that Gerald Wallace/Capt. Jack team was a lot of fun to watch, they'd pretty clearly hit their ceiling.

Now, you could say that our team, as presently constructed, hit our ceiling last year when we snuck into the ECF by the skin of our teeth. I'd probably agree with that.

Davis compares favorably to KG at the same age...  He also compares favorably to kg in year 2.  His per-minute numbers are fantastic. He's a franchise player unless something goes horribly wrong

Sure, he's potentially a franchise talent, but it takes a smart front office to maximize the team around him. The crux of my point doesn't really involve Davis at all, rather I'm curious to see how much you think front office competency plays into the development of a blown up team.

Also worth talking about, I think, is that teams have been much less liberal with trading draft picks since the new CBA was signed. A team like Brooklyn (trading picks for talent) is looking like the exception, not the rule.

If we were to look at the bobcats.. There's a fair chance they continue to stink.   That team is a dream for a GM that knows what he is doing.  Plenty of young assets on rookie deals... A top 5 pick in 2013, cap space... I'd personally tank for one more year in an effort to land wiggins and let the value increase for the youngins... And then either go the Okc route or use the cap space/assets to trade for established stars.   

For example... Boston would probably take MKG or the top 5 pick for rondo right now... The bobcats could swallow the extra salary and Boston would get a young prospect to build around.... But the bobcats don't need to do that.  A trade like that is the worst-case scenario for a properly managed bobcats team...  Trading your prospects for a 28 year old flawed fringe Allstar. 

They will probably mess it up but I promise you that team is a dream for a smart GM.  You could turn it into a contender within 4 years.. And that is significantly harder to do with the celtics current roster... Lack of assets, a best player with lack of value, overpaid vets and a lack of cap space in the foreseeable future.  When teams "blow it up", the goal is to get in the position the bobcats are in right now.  They are years ahead of us in thar regard.

I bet you Danny ainge would rather have the bobcats assets than the crap he has to work with right now.

and my reply, which wasn't quoted, was as follows:
That's the thing, though--it's a two way street. Look at how long Houston was in the "collect assets and wait" mode. How many superstars did they swing and miss with before they landed Harden?

I actually find Houston a much more reasonable model than the Sonics/Thunder, since they weren't really an awful team at any stretch of their post-Yao rebuild, and as a fan, I want my team to at least be entertaining if they can't be good. I've watched more Warriors games than I care to admit, from the We Believe era to the present, and watching them tank aggressively at the end of last year was awful.



TL;DR -- I appreciate your ability to recall old discussions, and I'll give you credit about correctly assessing Davis's potential, but please don't misrepresent my points because it makes you look like a shortsighted, mouthbreathing pedant.
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Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #64 on: April 01, 2015, 05:58:32 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Gotta side with DOS on this one. For starters, I personally really hate it when people go back to arguments from two years ago on a forum to pat themselves on the back about being right about something. You obviously wouldn't go out of your way to do it on the things you were wrong on so it seems a bit silly. Secondly if everyone did it, the board would become unbearable with everyone constantly bumping up old threads.

If it was something truly mindblowing, like predicting Evan Turner would have a triple double for the Celtics in March of 2015  in 2012 than by all means bring it up, but stuff like this not so much.

Secondly, if you are going to go through the trouble to bring in stuff, at the very least put it in the proper context and don't twist someone's words. Giving an ol TP for DOS.

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #65 on: April 01, 2015, 05:59:21 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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To bring it full circle, D.o.s, I think the moral of the story there is that the Bobcats were in-fact closer to contending for a title... but they ended up using the #4 on Cody Zeller.... they shoulda taken Nerlens Noel.  lol   So TP for you for pointing out that front-office competency matters, but that was never something I argued against.  I mentioned that Danny Ainge would have been salivating to have the 2013 Bobcats roster and that a competent GM would have a field day with it.   Re-read my quote:

Quote
With the Bobcats, you're looking at a team who (if properly managed) could be a contender within the next 4 years.  THey are LOADED with young assets and cap space.  Danny Ainge would be salivating to have that kind of flexibility.  That's the kind of assets you either build a contender around (the OKC route) or you flip for established vets (the 2007 Celtics route).   

Flash forward 2 months, and Ainge starts putting together a very Bobcat-esque roster by dumping KG and Pierce for future assets.  Here we are two years later in 2015 and our roster resembles that of the 2013 Bobcats (though we don't have a top 5 pick coming in this draft).  I stand by everything I said in that thread two years ago... they were closer to competing for a title.  They blew their opportunity by making poor draft choices (Zeller over Noel), bad signings (Al Jefferson pushed them to mediocrity and cost them a shot at the Wiggins/Embiid/Parker draft), further poor draft choices (Vonleh over Payton), and further bad signings (Lance).  Let's see how Ainge manages similar circumstances. 

Btw, although you included the rest of the long post, nothing added (my off-topic comments about the Bobcats and your off-topic comments about the Rockets) really changes the context.   I pointed out that Davis was the second coming of Kevin Garnett and you scoffed.   Now I'm saying Nerlens Noel is a serious ROY candidate and might develop into a better defender than Davis ... and yet I'm being called a troll.

FYI, I was born with a deviated septum, but I had surgery to fix that years ago.  Turns out, it wasn't a deviated septum... just allergies causing a near-constant stuffy nose.  20+ years having cats for pets and never realizing I was allergic to them.   Flonase was a life-saver.  My mouth-breathing days are long-gone, baby. 
« Last Edit: April 01, 2015, 06:28:25 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #66 on: April 01, 2015, 06:28:52 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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The Davis/KG/Noel Comp is interesting to me
First the Davis KG comp
I think of KG as an all around elite defender (like Noel) while I see Davis as a great shot blocker but I dont see him making that huge of a difference in terms of rim protection and all around defense.
2nd The Davis Noel com
1. comparing rookie years is a bit misleading for me because I think Noels injury gives him an advantage (see Blake Griffins rookie stats)
2. as mentioned above I see Davis as not an impact defender whereas I see Noel as potentiallybecoming a KG type defender
3. You note that you arent comparing them as scorers but Davis is the best scoring big in the game so thats kind of unfair (I mean half the league is as good as Harden if you take out scoring)
Conclusion
I see Davis and Noel as very different players in terms of style who are similar in the sense that they are from Kentucky, very athletic, big men, and have huge ceilings as elite big men.

I think KG is a Noel-Davis hybrid.  tho thats a non sequitor at this point

Lastly, I think they could become similarly dominant bigmen but they would dominate in different ways.

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Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #67 on: April 01, 2015, 06:37:26 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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To bring it full circle, D.o.s, I think the moral of the story there is that the Bobcats were in-fact closer to contending for a title... but they ended up using the #4 on Cody Zeller.... they shoulda taken Nerlens Noel.  lol   So TP for you for pointing out that front-office competency matters, but that was never something I argued against.  I mentioned that Danny Ainge would have been salivating to have the 2013 Bobcats roster and that a competent GM would have a field day with it.   Re-read my quote:

Quote
With the Bobcats, you're looking at a team who (if properly managed) could be a contender within the next 4 years.  THey are LOADED with young assets and cap space.  Danny Ainge would be salivating to have that kind of flexibility.  That's the kind of assets you either build a contender around (the OKC route) or you flip for established vets (the 2007 Celtics route).   

Flash forward 2 months, and Ainge starts putting together a very Bobcat-esque roster by dumping KG and Pierce for future assets.  Here we are two years later in 2015 and our roster resembles that of the 2013 Bobcats (though we don't have a top 5 pick coming in this draft).  I stand by everything I said in that thread two years ago... they were closer to competing for a title.  They blew their opportunity by making poor draft choices (Zeller over Noel), bad signings (Al Jefferson pushed them to mediocrity and cost them a shot at the Wiggins/Embiid/Parker draft), further poor draft choices (Vonleh over Payton), and further bad signings (Lance).  Let's see how Ainge manages similar circumstances. 

Btw, although you included the rest of the long post, nothing added (my off-topic comments about the Bobcats and your off-topic comments about the Rockets) really changes the context.   I pointed out that Davis was the second coming of Kevin Garnett and you scoffed.   Now I'm saying Nerlens Noel is a serious ROY candidate and might develop into a better defender than Davis ... and yet I'm being called a troll.

FYI, I was born with a deviated septum, but I had surgery to fix that years ago.  Turns out, it wasn't a deviated septum... just allergies causing a near-constant stuffy nose.  20+ years having cats for pets and never realizing I was allergic to them.   Flonase was a life-saver.  My mouth-breathing days are long-gone, baby.

If that's the interpretation you're taking from that years-old exchange, I don't know what to tell you, other than the fact that it was clearly not what happened.

What you said (in a heavily abbreviated fashion) was "Davis will be the next KG if... than..." right before you said "Charlotte will be title contenders sooner than the Celtics if...than." I commented on the relative transparency of that style of argument... and you remained salty about it for two years, I guess.

In other words, I wasn't scoffing at you for what you said. If anything I was scoffing at you for couching your opinion-as-fact post in a set of conditionals, something I will continue to do so as long as you parade your opinions as facts using those same sort of conditionals as guarantees. None of this has much to do with Nerlens Noel, who I've already said I haven't seen play enough to add to the discussion being had.

TP to you too for the friendly discussion on the relative merits of mild disagreement over the internet.
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Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #68 on: April 01, 2015, 06:55:28 PM »

Offline gpap

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Wiggins.

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #69 on: April 01, 2015, 07:16:31 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Davis is going to be a special player, and probably already is.  However, in terms of pure defense, I think I take Noel.

New Orleans screwed up so much with the Jrue Holiday trade.  I love Holiday, but the chance to pair Davis and Noel was one that they shouldn't have passed up.
Plus they gave up another pick which became Elfrid Payton.  Imagine how good they would be right now with Payton and Noel instead of Holiday and Pierre Jackson (who also came with Holiday but who hasn't played at all).  Not that Holiday has been a bad player, but seems like Noel and Payton might have been better options (though they probably would have been worse and might have drafted even higher than Payton - or they might not have acquired Asik if they had Noel).
The Davis/Noel combo seems like it would have been a great defense pairing.  However I would have thought the Davis/Asik combo would be a good defensive pairing but NO is one of the worst defensive teams. 

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #70 on: April 01, 2015, 07:53:01 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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The Davis/KG/Noel Comp is interesting to me
First the Davis KG comp
I think of KG as an all around elite defender (like Noel) while I see Davis as a great shot blocker but I dont see him making that huge of a difference in terms of rim protection and all around defense.
2nd The Davis Noel com
1. comparing rookie years is a bit misleading for me because I think Noels injury gives him an advantage (see Blake Griffins rookie stats)
2. as mentioned above I see Davis as not an impact defender whereas I see Noel as potentiallybecoming a KG type defender
3. You note that you arent comparing them as scorers but Davis is the best scoring big in the game so thats kind of unfair (I mean half the league is as good as Harden if you take out scoring)
Conclusion
I see Davis and Noel as very different players in terms of style who are similar in the sense that they are from Kentucky, very athletic, big men, and have huge ceilings as elite big men.

I think KG is a Noel-Davis hybrid.  tho thats a non sequitor at this point

Lastly, I think they could become similarly dominant bigmen but they would dominate in different ways.
Fair points.  KG came straight out of high school and averaged 10.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.1 steals in 28.7mpg as a 19 year old rookie.   Davis had College experience, but came in as a 19 year old and put up even better stats:  13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals in 28.8mpg.   It was an easy comparison to make. 

Noel played 24 college games, tore his ACL mid-season, missed his entire rookie year and returned as a 20 year old rookie with a very raw offensive game.    Pre All-Star he averaged 8.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.6 steals.   Post All-star he's averaged 14 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.5 blocks and 2.3 steals.  We're seeing a pretty dramatic improvement out of him.   Will he averaged 17-20 points next year like KG and Davis did their sophomore years?  Probably not.  Maybe.  His offensive game is still pretty weak.

Here was his 30 point performance last week.  Lots of flying well above the rim, some off the dribble stuff, baby hook, dream-shake fade-away jumper bank shot... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aOK9xUkAMg

I dunno... when's the last time you guys assessed his offensive game?  Maybe his worst-case scenario is rich man's Tyson Chandler or something.   

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #71 on: April 01, 2015, 08:08:43 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The Davis/KG/Noel Comp is interesting to me
First the Davis KG comp
I think of KG as an all around elite defender (like Noel) while I see Davis as a great shot blocker but I dont see him making that huge of a difference in terms of rim protection and all around defense.
2nd The Davis Noel com
1. comparing rookie years is a bit misleading for me because I think Noels injury gives him an advantage (see Blake Griffins rookie stats)
2. as mentioned above I see Davis as not an impact defender whereas I see Noel as potentiallybecoming a KG type defender
3. You note that you arent comparing them as scorers but Davis is the best scoring big in the game so thats kind of unfair (I mean half the league is as good as Harden if you take out scoring)
Conclusion
I see Davis and Noel as very different players in terms of style who are similar in the sense that they are from Kentucky, very athletic, big men, and have huge ceilings as elite big men.

I think KG is a Noel-Davis hybrid.  tho thats a non sequitor at this point

Lastly, I think they could become similarly dominant bigmen but they would dominate in different ways.
Fair points.  KG came straight out of high school and averaged 10.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.1 steals in 28.7mpg as a 19 year old rookie.   Davis had College experience, but came in as a 19 year old and put up even better stats:  13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals in 28.8mpg.   It was an easy comparison to make. 

Noel played 24 college games, tore his ACL mid-season, missed his entire rookie year and returned as a 20 year old rookie with a very raw offensive game.    Pre All-Star he averaged 8.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.6 steals.   Post All-star he's averaged 14 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.5 blocks and 2.3 steals.  We're seeing a pretty dramatic improvement out of him.   Will he averaged 17-20 points next year like KG and Davis did their sophomore years?  Probably not.  Maybe.  His offensive game is still pretty weak.

Here was his 30 point performance last week.  Lots of flying well above the rim, some off the dribble stuff, baby hook, dream-shake fade-away jumper bank shot... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aOK9xUkAMg

I dunno... when's the last time you guys assessed his offensive game?  Maybe his worst-case scenario is rich man's Tyson Chandler or something.

The off the dribble runner early on was really nice (34 seconds) as was the drive and dunk (54 second in), he shows good athleticism on catching the alley oops and it was definitely encouraging to see him hit so many foul shots.

A few questions I had from this video is why in the world he was still in the game the last two minutes in a 25 point blowout. The clippers had clearly emptied their bench at this point and he is a guy coming off a serious injuries playing the most minutes he ever has in his life. If I was a philly fan I would definitely have wanted him out of the game in that that situation. Refs don't generally call fouls in blowouts, you have end of bench guys and guys on 10 day contracts trying to prove they deserve more time and play hard. I also don't really get throwing down alley oops when you are down 25 points.

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #72 on: April 01, 2015, 08:22:27 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Yeah he's the 23 point performance a week earlier.  Mostly alley-oops:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bTWxPXeNVw

You can see how his returning athleticism has a lot to do with his improvements in the 2nd half of the season.

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #73 on: April 01, 2015, 08:52:28 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Man, like 90% of those career night highlight videos are characterized by how TERRIBLE the defense was. He did have quite a few nice plays and lucky ones as well which were good to see, but the rest... man the defense was incredibly bad.

Nice to see him hitting his free-throws and running the floor though... in those games.

Re: ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel
« Reply #74 on: April 01, 2015, 08:59:28 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Man, like 90% of those career night highlight videos are characterized by how TERRIBLE the defense was. He did have quite a few nice plays and lucky ones as well which were good to see, but the rest... man the defense was incredibly bad.

Nice to see him hitting his free-throws and running the floor though... in those games.

I don't think many teams bring their a game for the 76ers and if the Knicks brought their A game, well its still pretty bad.