ROY: Andrew Wiggins or Nerlens Noel

[LarBrd33]

Wiggins has been outstanding and I think people are very familiar with what he's been doing so far.  I think earlier in the season it seemed Wiggins was a lock, but Nerlens has really improved.   I think he's got a real shot at winning the award despite the fact that Wiggins gets the most press. 

A couple recent articles about Noel's rise:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nerlens-noel-the-other-rookie-of-the-year/

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25129487/roy-breakdown-nerlens-noel-has-taken-big-steps-forward

For as bad as Philly is, he's made a team that was 27th best defense last year to 12th best this year.  His opponents are shooting 38% against him.  The Sixers' defense is plus-4.4 points better per 100 possessions with Noel on the floor.  He's 6th in the league in defensive rating this season and he's a 20 year old coming off major surgery.

Season averages:

Wiggins:  16.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.6 blocks, 1.1 steal, 44%/33%/75% - 35.7mpg
Noel:  10 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.9 blocks, 1.8 steals, 46%/61% - 31mpg

Post All-star Break averages:

Wiggins:  19 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.6 blocks, 0.9 steals, 45%/18%/77% in 38.6mpg
Noel:  14 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.5 blocks, 2.3 steals, 49%/67% - 33mpg

When you get past the scoring, it really does seem like Noel has been the most impressive and most impactful rookie this season.  Also note that Wiggins plays 5 more minutes per game.

Fwiw just for reference, Anthony Davis as a rookie put up 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.8 block and 1.2 steal.  52%/75%   Drummond averaged 7.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 1.6 block and 1 steal as a rookie, but in less minutes.    Since the all-star break, Noel certainly looks like a prospect who is going to develop into a star big man... especially on the defensive end.

[Tr1boy]

Neither. Marcus Smart should be getting it.

[celticsclay]

Wiggins. You really really love Noels by the way. Putting him in the same sentence as Davis is just unfair to Noel.

[nickagneta]

Nerlens. But  I am admittedly seriously biased in his favor for personal reasons.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Honestly though I think Mirotic is the best of the 3, but he just didn't play enough minutes and it took him awhile to come on strong.  He's going to be a such beast soon though, he is just incredible.  I love the Spanish league players so much, they do an amazing job developing guys lately. If I had a kid who was a blue chip prospect and all I cared about was their basketball development, I would send them to one of the good Liga ACB teams over any school in the NCAA.

Wiggins and Noel are no slouches though and certainly deserve praise for slugging through the season on their respectively awful teams.  I expect big things from the 3 of them.  I'm guessing though that Wiggins takes it and it's not particularly close.

[LarBrd33]

Wiggins. You really really love Noels by the way. Putting him in the same sentence as Davis is just unfair to Noel.

I like dominant defensive bigs, but I also like well-rounded elite scorers.   I like both of those guys.  I'm bummed we couldn't land Noel for Rondo during the 2013 draft... I'm equally bummed we missed out on a top 3 pick during the 2014 draft.  BOth of those guys look like they are going to be perennial all-stars. 

And is it actually unfair to Noel to compare him to Davis?  Davis is a better scorer.  Are we sure Noel isn't going to be a better defender?

[LarBrd33]

BTW, I've been totally on board with the Hinkie plan for a while.  If you're selling Philly stock, I'm buying.   That team has the potential to be really really good a lot quicker than most people realize.   I could see them as a playoff team in a couple years.

They have a dominant defensive center in Noel.   Embiid might even be better.  They should have a top 4 pick this year.  They have cap space to sign anyone and are the frontrunners to land any available stars through trade (nobody can compete with their assets).   I'll actually be surprised if they are still a lottery team in 2 years.

[Moranis]

Noel

[D.o.s.]

Wiggins, simply because teams don't win ROTY awards back to back in the modern era and the 76ers backlash is going to be strong.

[Quetzalcoatl]

BTW, I've been totally on board with the Hinkie plan for a while.  If you're selling Philly stock, I'm buying.   That team has the potential to be really really good a lot quicker than most people realize.   I could see them as a playoff team in a couple years.

They have a dominant defensive center in Noel.   Embiid might even be better.  They should have a top 4 pick this year.  They have cap space to sign anyone and are the frontrunners to land any available stars through trade (nobody can compete with their assets).   I'll actually be surprised if they are still a lottery team in 2 years.

They have a great chance to either get a top 3 pick or move back and pick 5th and 6th simultaneously if the Lakers also don't get a top 3 pick.  The only way they can lose is if they get 4th or 5th and the Lakers get a top 3.

Ugh and I have been playing the ESPN Lottery Machine and Indy won it then the Hornets won it back to back

[celticsclay]

Wiggins. You really really love Noels by the way. Putting him in the same sentence as Davis is just unfair to Noel.

I like dominant defensive bigs, but I also like well-rounded elite scorers.   I like both of those guys.  I'm bummed we couldn't land Noel for Rondo during the 2013 draft... I'm equally bummed we missed out on a top 3 pick during the 2014 draft.  BOth of those guys look like they are going to be perennial all-stars. 

And is it actually unfair to Noel to compare him to Davis?  Davis is a better scorer.  Are we sure Noel isn't going to be a better defender?

Yes Davis has transcendent athleticism and is in legitimate conversation for MVP this year at 23 years old. He is having one of the best statistical seasons in the history of the NBA. Comparing a guy that is having a really nice rookie season to him is just stupid and pointless and again even unfair to Noel. I know you are smarter and more realistic than this. Is the hyperbole really that necessary to express that you like him?

[Moranis]

Wiggins. You really really love Noels by the way. Putting him in the same sentence as Davis is just unfair to Noel.

I like dominant defensive bigs, but I also like well-rounded elite scorers.   I like both of those guys.  I'm bummed we couldn't land Noel for Rondo during the 2013 draft... I'm equally bummed we missed out on a top 3 pick during the 2014 draft.  BOth of those guys look like they are going to be perennial all-stars. 

And is it actually unfair to Noel to compare him to Davis?  Davis is a better scorer.  Are we sure Noel isn't going to be a better defender?

Yes Davis has transcendent athleticism and is in legitimate conversation for MVP this year at 23 years old. He is having one of the best statistical seasons in the history of the NBA. Comparing a guy that is having a really nice rookie season to him is just stupid and pointless and again even unfair to Noel. I know you are smarter and more realistic than this. Is the hyperbole really that necessary to express that you like him?

But he was pointing out that they had similar rookie seasons.  Nothing wrong with that at all, you know when the stats show they did in fact have similar rookie seasons.

[celticsclay]

Wiggins. You really really love Noels by the way. Putting him in the same sentence as Davis is just unfair to Noel.

I like dominant defensive bigs, but I also like well-rounded elite scorers.   I like both of those guys.  I'm bummed we couldn't land Noel for Rondo during the 2013 draft... I'm equally bummed we missed out on a top 3 pick during the 2014 draft.  BOth of those guys look like they are going to be perennial all-stars. 

And is it actually unfair to Noel to compare him to Davis?  Davis is a better scorer.  Are we sure Noel isn't going to be a better defender?

Yes Davis has transcendent athleticism and is in legitimate conversation for MVP this year at 23 years old. He is having one of the best statistical seasons in the history of the NBA. Comparing a guy that is having a really nice rookie season to him is just stupid and pointless and again even unfair to Noel. I know you are smarter and more realistic than this. Is the hyperbole really that necessary to express that you like him?

But he was pointing out that they had similar rookie seasons.  Nothing wrong with that at all, you know when the stats show they did in fact have similar rookie seasons.

Umm... this is a little different than comparing their rookie season statistics...

[Vox_Populi]

Wiggins. You really really love Noels by the way. Putting him in the same sentence as Davis is just unfair to Noel.

I like dominant defensive bigs, but I also like well-rounded elite scorers.   I like both of those guys.  I'm bummed we couldn't land Noel for Rondo during the 2013 draft... I'm equally bummed we missed out on a top 3 pick during the 2014 draft.  BOth of those guys look like they are going to be perennial all-stars. 

And is it actually unfair to Noel to compare him to Davis?  Davis is a better scorer.  Are we sure Noel isn't going to be a better defender?

Yes Davis has transcendent athleticism and is in legitimate conversation for MVP this year at 23 years old. He is having one of the best statistical seasons in the history of the NBA. Comparing a guy that is having a really nice rookie season to him is just stupid and pointless and again even unfair to Noel. I know you are smarter and more realistic than this. Is the hyperbole really that necessary to express that you like him?

But he was pointing out that they had similar rookie seasons.  Nothing wrong with that at all, you know when the stats show they did in fact have similar rookie seasons.

Rookie Davis per 100 possessions: 25.5 points, 15.3 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 3.3 blocks, 56 TS%, .159 WS/48.
Rookie Noel per 100 possessions: 16.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, 2.9 steals, 3.1 blocks, 50 TS%, .084 WS/48.

Only David Robinson has done what Davis did as rookie. I started watching more of Noel since New Year and he can definitely be as good a defender as Davis, but they weren't that close statistically as rookies. Davis was much better.

[celticsclay]

Wiggins. You really really love Noels by the way. Putting him in the same sentence as Davis is just unfair to Noel.

I like dominant defensive bigs, but I also like well-rounded elite scorers.   I like both of those guys.  I'm bummed we couldn't land Noel for Rondo during the 2013 draft... I'm equally bummed we missed out on a top 3 pick during the 2014 draft.  BOth of those guys look like they are going to be perennial all-stars. 

And is it actually unfair to Noel to compare him to Davis?  Davis is a better scorer.  Are we sure Noel isn't going to be a better defender?

Yes Davis has transcendent athleticism and is in legitimate conversation for MVP this year at 23 years old. He is having one of the best statistical seasons in the history of the NBA. Comparing a guy that is having a really nice rookie season to him is just stupid and pointless and again even unfair to Noel. I know you are smarter and more realistic than this. Is the hyperbole really that necessary to express that you like him?

But he was pointing out that they had similar rookie seasons.  Nothing wrong with that at all, you know when the stats show they did in fact have similar rookie seasons.

Rookie Davis per 100 possessions: 25.5 points, 15.3 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 3.3 blocks, 56 TS%, .159 WS/48.
Rookie Noel per 100 possessions: 16.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, 2.9 steals, 3.1 blocks, 50 TS%, .084 WS/48.

Only David Robinson has done what Davis did as rookie. I started watching more of Noel since New Year and he can definitely be as good a defender as Davis, but they weren't that close statistically as rookies. Davis was much better.

So even that stats part isn't accurate. It just makes our board look bad when we make such outlandish comparisons. I don't think even the strongest Philly homers are making a Noel Davis comparison. I get the shtick, say outlandish things and try to get a rise out of people, but sometimes it's just derails a good conversation.