To me, I think the Celtics should be favored for making the playoffs over the Pacers and Nets, but virtually everything I read with playoff projections has the Pacers nabbing the 8th seed from us. Does anyone else think this is a bit unfair? There are several reasons why I believe this is mistaken:
1) First and foremost, we're in the 8th seed right now, and Indiana is in 10th place a full game behind us and a half-game behind Brooklyn for 9th place.
2) As of now, we own the tie-breaker against both Indiana and Brooklyn, with Brooklyn being final and one game still against Indiana. This means not only do they have to match our record as of now, they have to play 2 games better in the remaining 10 games or beat us at home in our final game against each other. Brooklyn has to have a better record than us to get in.
3) The potential comeback of Paul George is really skewing these projections, imo. However, how much can he really help with only 10 games left? He's going to be rusty, there will be chemistry concerns, and more than likely he'll be on a minutes restriction. It's not too far to even suggest him coming back might worsen the team in the short run rather than making them better. Furthermore, it's projected that he won't be coming back until April 3 against the Hornets. when they get done with their two-game road trip against Brooklyn and us. This leaves them 7 games with PG.
4) Here's the remaining schedule for the Pacers, Nets, and Celtics, respectively:
Indy: Brooklyn: Celtics:
3/29 vs. Dallas 3/29 vs. LAL 3/29 vs. LAC
3/31 @ Brooklyn 3/31 vs. Indiana 3/30 @ Charlotte
4/01 @ Boston 4/01 @ New York 4/01 vs. Indiana
4/03 vs. Charlotte 4/03 vs. Toronto 4/03 vs. Milwaukee
4/05 vs. Miami 4/04 @ Atlanta 4/04 @ Toronto
4/08 @ New York 4/06 vs. Portland 4/08 @ Detroit
4/10 @ Detroit 4/08 vs. Atlanta 4/10 @ Cleveland
4/12 vs. OKC 4/10 vs. Washington 4/12 vs. Cleveland
4/14 vs. Washington 4/12 @ Milwaukee 4/14 vs. Toronto
4/15 @ Memphis 4/13 vs. Chicago 4/15 vs. Milwaukee
4/15 vs. Orlando
Theoretically, here's what I see for each team.
Indiana: Should be wins - New York, Detroit
50/50 - Brooklyn, Boston, Charlotte, Miami, Washington
Should probably lose - Dallas, OKC, Memphis
Brooklyn: Should be wins - LAL, New York, Orlando
50/50 - Indiana, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, Chicago
Should probably lose - Atlanta, Atlanta, Portland
Boston: Should be wins -
Detroit
50/50 - Charlotte, Indiana, Milwaukee, Toronto, Toronto, Milwaukee
Should probably lose - LAC, Cleveland, Cleveland
So what do you guys think? Who should be the favorite to make the playoffs right now given the current standings, context surrounding each team, tiebreakers, and remaining schedule?
I'm still going with the C's, because I'm a homer!
Seriously, though, I think the order of strength of remaining schedule goes 1) Boston 2) Indiana 3) Brooklyn. I think Indiana falls out of the race, and it ends up being between Brooklyn and us for the final spot, which is great because we own the tiebreaker.