Better to be swept in Round 1 and pick #15... or have 9th best draft odds?

[ScoobyDoo]

Hi Rondo9 - yep, good point and agree. I acknowledge the wins attributable to the players you mention and I have zero issue with those wins.

My issue is with watching Thornton, Prince and Bass help us pull out a minimum of 5-10 wins this season - games where Thornton or Price come off the bench to make key plays or drop 15-20 on a team that changed the outcome. I'd much rather have played my young guys those minutes and let the chips fall where they may.

Regarding Thornton and Prince - there is now way they were going to be here next season, therefore I do not play them. I also am not a fan of "showcasing" vets who'
have been in the league for 6+ years to increase their trade value. I think any good GM league wide is probably pretty clear on what Thornton or Prince can bring to the table.   

Bass is a tougher call because he deserves minutes and I would have serious considerations about bringing him back on another fairly long term contract as a vet presence in my PF rotation.

Two options with him:

Option A) I ultimately decide I'm not planning on bringing him back. If so, he is not getting minutes - I'm giving them minutes to guys "who will be here". If he doesn't like it he can go home. I pay him $6-7 million a year to be happy with whatever role I ask to perform.

Option B) I do plan on bringing him back. In this case I tell him I have every intention of bringing him back as a part of our long term plans and at a fair market value. That said, I need to take a long, hard look at my young guys and need him to play a bit more of a mentor role with reduced minutes for the last 20-30 games. Again, I pay him and that's the job I'm asking him to do. If he chafes under that job description, that would change my decision on making him a long term part of this team. I would not tell him I'm bringing him back unless I absolutely intended to.

I 100% agree with you that we have lots of cap, pick s and massive flexibility moving forward. I love that and very excited about it - I also want to add "one projected blue chip talent" to my war chest as well - I want it all. 

Olynyk, Zeller, Sullinger (until injured), Crowder, Jerebko, Turner, Thomas, Smart, Bradley, Datome Young, Pressey - that's my key rotation. Bass gets minutes here and there where needed.

No one else sees the court. If players are p---ed because Prince, Thornton and/or Bass aren't being used, they can complain all day. They'll all be happy when Towns is running up and down the court with them.

LarBrd33 - your cut and pastes summarize it in a nutshell. I'm not saying we can't get lucky and make something happen in free agency or trade - but I'd like to add that blue chipper. In that case you'd also have to give up less assets having only to chase maybe one star instead of two in in trade scenarios and you might also be more attractive to big free agents having a real cornerstone piece, such as Towns, in house...

Hey Celtics4ever: Not a coach, but have held a lot of upper level management positions  - there are a lot of similarities to that in coaching, management of talent, what's the right team, 10,000 strategies, day to day details to get "there"...

I also cannot help but root for the Celtics once the ball goes up.

I absolutely want us to win every game - just not with guys who are not part of the future. I'd rather take it on the chin with a few more losses and develop guys who will be here - than play them.

And in this case, the playing of those vets are likely to put us in a much worse draft position.           
 

[JBcat]

I see what you're saying ScoobyDoo, and some of it I agree with.  However,  regarding minutes to Bass, Thornton, and Prince I'll say this.  I think you're advocating the big man minutes to be spread mostly between Jerberko, Zeller, and KO with Sully going down, but Jerberko is not much younger than Bass is also a free agent and no sure lock to return.  Plus when KO was out somebody had to get those extra big man minutes.  When Thornton was here somebody had to get those backup SG minutes, and Young wasn't ready nor was Datome here at the time.  I'm not an advocate of just giving a young player minutes before they deserve it.  Thornton only played 17 MPG at 27 games total so I don't think he impacted our win total that much.  Prince played 22 MPG over 9 games for us.  At the time Turner was playing PG I believe as it was before IT arrived.  The only other options at SF then were Crowder and Wallace.  So somebody had to get those minutes. 

So basically what I'm saying is if you look at the roster situation at the time these guys had to play those minutes because there wasn't really an alternative.  I also think maybe at most you got 5 more wins by having these guys here, especially with Prince and Thornton's combined game total of only 36 games at close to 20 MPG.  10 extra wins I think is really pushing it, and 5 extra losses doesn't push us in the high lottery.

If you look at the minute distribution of the young players I'm pretty happy with it for the most part.  I don't think you you could have played them much more than they already have, and I'm perfectly fine with not playing Young now until the coaching staff feels he deserves PT.

Lastly with Ainge's move to get IT at the trade deadline it was a win now move for this year, and the future.   Even if we didn't make that trade I think we would still had a very small chance of landing a top 4 pick.  Maybe itstead of 33 wins we have 30 now, and still not bad enough.  So why not make that move, and he could easily be a moveable piece as part of a bigger trade down the line.

[Al91]

This topic has me torn. When the season began I was all about missing the playoffs and securing a good pick. Post-Rondo and Green I was fully invested in this team again...something that I hadn't felt for about two or three years. More recently I fell in love with the playoff hunt and have wanted the Cs to creep in, win a game or two and call it a season.

Thoughts of the Hawks for the past six years plague me now. I don't want to be THAT team. Brad is an amazing coach which also has me conflicted. I kind of want to see him coach in the playoffs. Then we'll know if he's the real, real deal (I'm completely sold on Brad personally and in a world where Stotts or Hornacek can be considered COY last year with such talent I don't see why Brad isn't this year).

However, I really like the sound of WCS. Our odds wouldn't be best to nab him but that's why we have a "war chest" of picks.

Miss playoffs. Secure better pick odds.

[LarBrd33]

You're obsessed LarBrd33.  Been stuck on repeat for a while.  Hey, maybe Ainge will listen to you.

Despite the fact that this thread was framed with a bit of a slant towards "tank, baby, tank!" and 70% of the voters seem to agree, I think it's fair to mention that I'm actually in the other camp this time around.   I'm all-aboard the playoff push train.  If we get dominated by the Hawks in Round 1... whatever.   I have confidence in this organization.   Ainge is incredible.   I'm fine with Stevens trying to build a winning culture.  Hopefully it rubs free agents the right way as we head into the first offseason we've ever had (seemingly in the entire history of the organzation) with cap space.   

[mahcus smaht]

You're obsessed LarBrd33.  Been stuck on repeat for a while.  Hey, maybe Ainge will listen to you.

Despite the fact that this thread was framed with a bit of a slant towards "tank, baby, tank!" and 70% of the voters seem to agree, I think it's fair to mention that I'm actually in the other camp this time around.   I'm all-aboard the playoff push train.  If we get dominated by the Hawks in Round 1... whatever.   I have confidence in this organization.   Ainge is incredible.   I'm fine with Stevens trying to build a winning culture.  Hopefully it rubs free agents the right way as we head into the first offseason we've ever had (seemingly in the entire history of the organzation) with cap space.

Really?! For two years I have been against the tank, but in this I think #9 would be the best.
Selecting 9th we are garunteed one of the following
Towns
Okafor
Russell
Mudiay
Winslow
Hezonja
Johnson
WCS
Porzingis
if not we are left with
Kaminsky
Oubre
Turner
Dekker
Grant
To me thats a huge talent drop, and I think we have already gotten a lot of the value of not tanking in this season in terms of player development

[LGC88]

You're obsessed LarBrd33.  Been stuck on repeat for a while.  Hey, maybe Ainge will listen to you.

Despite the fact that this thread was framed with a bit of a slant towards "tank, baby, tank!" and 70% of the voters seem to agree, I think it's fair to mention that I'm actually in the other camp this time around.   I'm all-aboard the playoff push train.  If we get dominated by the Hawks in Round 1... whatever.   I have confidence in this organization.   Ainge is incredible.   I'm fine with Stevens trying to build a winning culture.  Hopefully it rubs free agents the right way as we head into the first offseason we've ever had (seemingly in the entire history of the organzation) with cap space.

I agree with that. The celtics has a winner culture and pride for the jersey.
Our coach needs an nba playoff experience before this team is a contender. I don't want to see Boston ready for contention with a playoff virgin coach. At least he needs one series to realize what it takes to win a 7 game series, and if it will be painful to watch, at least it will be a great lesson for Stevens and our youngs that will be with us in the future.
I believe in DA for pulling off whatever it takes when the opportunity comes.
For now on, this organisation has to be consistent and stick to its principles (something that some FA might appreciate or even identify themselves into).
Let's go for the playoff !

[SHAQATTACK]

Probably was a good idea to let Stevens and couple of the keepers or young talent to have faith in their coach .  I mean who would want to play for a GM and coach that is killing your chances to make the playoffs and accomplish something .  You suppose to,be a professional , you get drafted , and your team is built to loose on purpose is not team I'd want to play on.

I think , at least by reading other teams blogs , that their is a opinion that Boston has a Good Coach , one that can win and players who are mostly happy. 

If the team is really bad and say picking 7 or 8 ,  then I'm not against sitting players to pickup a draft position  , move up a couple spots ,   The season is over ....might as well.   That is where Danny screwed up last season,  no,chance of playoffs at all,  should have lost the last ten games to move up.

It's been refreshing to see the program moving forward and fans getting something. To cheer for.

[LarBrd33]

March 25th, 2015 thread BUMPITY BUMP -> June 26, 2015

I know bumping threads is frowned on, but it's kind of interesting re-visiting this thread given how relevant it is (us trying to offer 6 draft picks to Charlotte in order to move up from #16 to #9). 

On March 25th when this thread was created, we had a record of 31-40
On March 25th when this thread was created, the Hornets had a record of 30-40

We were a half game ahead of them with 11 games left in the season... a time of year when playoff teams rest their stars and lotto teams experiment with youth... "Extended Garbage Time", as I like to call it. 

Charlotte gets hit with a MKG and Al Jefferson injury... they lose 9 of their remaining games and finish 33-49

Boston goes on a end-of-season run.... they win 9 of their remaining games and finish 40-42. 

Charlotte ends up with the 9th pick.
Boston gets curb-stomped by a bored Cavs team in 4 games... ends up with the #16 pick.

Now I realize that Charlotte selecting Kaminsky ruins this "what-if", but the fact is Boston was willing to give up #16 + reportedly as many as three other 1st round picks to move up to #9 and select Winslow.    We have a very clear answer to the question of how those final 11 games impacted our franchise.  The gap between Winslow and Hozier was a freakin Grand Canyon.  It's interesting how these two teams separated.   Would anyone argue that the Hornets have less talent than Boston right now because of those final 11 games?  No.  They were on a par with us.  Their two best players got injured and they stumbled.  We drank a bunch of red bull and fell azz-backwards into an accidental playoff berth. 

Bright side:  I still think making the playoffs was ok.  And despite the fact that I created this thread and acknowledged we were on the verge of a Grade-A Nut-kicking by a real playoff team, I mentioned multiple times that I was on-board with the playoff push.  My reasoning might be naive, but I felt like this playoff run was all about keeping Brad Stevens happy.  I think there's a very real possibility we could lose him to the NCAA.  I think he's an outstanding coach.  I feel like the playoff push gave us a tiny bit of momentum heading into the offseason.  It reflected well on the organization that we would win at "ALL COSTS" (even screwing ourselves out of a #9 pick that we were willing to sacrifice 6 draft picks for).  The players will remain committed to Brad.   Brad will stay invested in the Celtics (for now, at least).  And Free agents will hopefully consider us... not because of the talent on this team (we're severely lacking), but because we have a top-notch organization with an exceptional coach.    If Winslow ends up the next Paul Pierce, those final 11 games (when the league is generally in extended garbage time) may have set this team back a decade.   But I am holding out hope that the push will go a long way towards putting the focus on Brad Stevens as a selling point this summer.   Puttering into the lottery probably wasn't going help Brad's draw power... and it very likely could have lead to him bailing on us.

[BlackCeltic]

Losing is never an option. We have built a reputation for rebuilding the right way. That may attract a free agent who admires it. Forget what ifs.

[LarBrd33]

Losing is never an option. We have built a reputation for rebuilding the right way. That may attract a free agent that admires it. Forget what ifs.

Agree... but it's interesting to note that the final 11 games of the season (15 if you include the 4 where the Cavs took us behind a woodshed) almost cost us 5 extra draft picks.  We were reportedly willing to give up 6 draft picks (including our own #16) in order to get the Charlotte pick #9... and it wasn't even enough to get the job done.   Amazing.   

Think about the reverse of that.  We lose 9 of the last 11, end up with Pick #9... and Charlotte offers us 6 draft picks for it.  It's kind of fun to think about, because when I was creating this thread, I was creating it in a bubble where I had no concept of how the value of #9 would compare to #15 and whether or not it really even mattered.    Well, we now have a tangible idea of what the comparative value actually was... and it's startling.  Those final 11 games had a real cost.   

11 games... Less than 3 weeks of NBA basketball... may have dramatically impacted the course of this franchise.   Actually... why am I even saying "may have"?   This is definitive.  Less than 3 weeks of NBA basketball absolutely impacted the course of this franchise.  It's no coincidence that after striking out on Winslow, rumors dropped that we were willing to give 15 mil per year to restricted free agent Tobias Harris.  Here's hoping we make something out of it this summer in free agency... otherwise, this was a total waste.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Another aspect of the value of a pick is who is available at that spot. What if Kaminsky wasn' t on the bboard when Charlotte were making the pic? Do they turn down 6 picks then?

[D.o.s.]

I don't hold any stock in winning culture. We had none the season before we won our last championship -- we have very little now that we don't have good players. It's 85% a sell to the fans in order to buy merch.

We "should" have missed the playoffs, even though I can't bring myself to root for Celtics losses. That is, largely, inarguable on paper, but it's hard to advocate for losing, particularly when we were wound up being outclassed by three teams in our own division in that regard.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I'll be glad when the people crying realize it doesn't matter what anyone on CB wanted, we had no control either way.

I don't care how anyone feels about winning vs. tanking, if I could go back I would root for winning all over again! You can spend your life whining about it if you want but it isn't going to get you a prize or make people like me change my mind because you think your position is the right one!

Like I said before, if we lose that's fine, I can't do anything about that but there is no way in hell I am ever going to WANT or WISH for it!

I like the blog so I'm prepared to see another 50 of these threads in the next few weeks (obviously the other 50 just like it weren't enough) but I sure wish people would put up new topics instead.

[Casperian]

I don't hold any stock in winning culture. We had none the season before we won our last championship -- we have very little now that we don't have good players. It's 85% a sell to the fans in order to buy merch.

We "should" have missed the playoffs, even though I can't bring myself to root for Celtics losses. That is, largely, inarguable on paper, but it's hard to advocate for losing, particularly when we were wound up being outclassed by three teams in our own division in that regard.

I don't believe in "winning culture", either.

I also don't believe that one option is clearly better than the other. Furthermore, I don't believe that it makes any difference to Brad Stevens whether the majority of the fan base would have preferred to win or lose more games. I think the man is simply doing his job to the best of his abilities (which, btw, is exactly how I like my coaches).

Oh, and I also don't believe that this whole discussion has any value, at all. Neither for the future of the franchise, it's current state, or as a theoretical exercise from which we can draw conclusions about the art of rebuilding in general.

[Roy H.]

If I knew that Winslow would be there at #10, I would have given up the playoff run, even though it was fun at the time.

Heck, I would have settled for the #15, because there's at least a chance that Kelly Oubre is special. We could have avoided the Cavs, too, and had a fighting chance against the Hawks.

Oh, well. It was an entertaining season.