Better to be swept in Round 1 and pick #15... or have 9th best draft odds?

[LarBrd33]

Noticed that we were a half game above the team with the 9th best Draft odds.   We have the same amount of losses as them.

Let's lay the groundwork for this hypothetical. 

- Let's say that Utah, Boston, Charlotte, Indiana and Brooklyn all finished the season with 35 wins (they are all tied in the loss column right now with 40 losses).
- Let's just say that each of those teams is on a par with each other in terms of current roster quality (though I think most would admit Utah and Indiana have more potential heading forward)
- Let's say regardless of who the tiebreaker went to (Boston, Charlotte, Indiana or Brooklyn), the Hawks would crush them in Round 1.  I know the optimists always have faith in playoff miracles, but for the sake of argument let's pretend that we are certain a playoff appearance will lead to a sweep by Atlanta. 

So then... explain to me which of the following two scenarios is better:

Scenario #1 - Win the tie-breaker.  End up with the 8th seed.  Get swept in Round 1 by Atlanta.  End up missing out on a lotto pick and picking #15.

Scenario #2 - Lose the tie-breaker.   End up with the 9th best odds in the Lotto.

Again, let's pretend that a sweep in Round 1 is certain.  I'm genuinely wondering if a terrible playoff appearance + #15 outweighs missing the playoffs and having 9th best odds. 

Last year, the team with the 9th best odds ended up winning the lottery.  Doubtful it happens two years in a row, but it's interesting.     

Which is a better Scenario? 

Some will argue that playoff experience, regardless of the quality of the experience, is very beneficial.   I could see it having a mild impact on the trade values of our players.     

Some would argue that there's not a ton of difference between #9 and #15.

Others will argue that #15 + #26 wouldn't get you a Top 10 pick in this draft... and that having the #9 pick, based on the draft tiers, would be far more valuable than having the #15... so much so that it outweighs a pointless playoff exercise. 

Curious what everyone thinks.   

[Nerf DPOY]

- Let's say regardless of who the tiebreaker went to (Boston, Charlotte, Indiana or Brooklyn), the Hawks would crush them in Round 1.  I know the optimists always have faith in playoff miracles, but for the sake of argument let's pretend that we are certain a playoff appearance will lead to a sweep by Atlanta.

If I knew ahead of time the Hawks would sweep us, then give me the #9 pick. In reality though, I'd forgo the 9 pick for 15 just to take one solid swing at the Hawks. Stranger things have happened.....the Cavs winning the lottery from the 9 spot last year for instance.

But I don't really put much stock in "playoff experience", especially given the roster turnover no matter what happens.

Edit: So I voted #9 pick given the parameters.

[KG Living Legend]

 As a fan I'd love to see us compete. That said I'm all in for the 9th pick. With all the other picks it's conceivable we could jump up to 6th if Ainge really liked a certain player.

[tarheelsxxiii]

What are the best projections, for us, from 9-15? I'd consider that a major factor. Maybe even more so, the fact that odds don't tend to mean much in recent history.

[LarBrd33]

- Let's say regardless of who the tiebreaker went to (Boston, Charlotte, Indiana or Brooklyn), the Hawks would crush them in Round 1.  I know the optimists always have faith in playoff miracles, but for the sake of argument let's pretend that we are certain a playoff appearance will lead to a sweep by Atlanta.

If I knew ahead of time the Hawks would sweep us, then give me the #9 pick. In reality though, I'd forgo the 9 pick for 15 just to take one solid swing at the Hawks. Stranger things have happened.....the Cavs winning the lottery from the 9 spot last year for instance.

But I don't really put much stock in "playoff experience", especially given the roster turnover no matter what happens.

For what it's worth, I'm with you.  I'd rather see them make the playoffs and have a crack at it even though I know the most likely outcome BY FAR is them getting dominated in Round 1.  Team doesn't have the talent to do much. 

Best case scenario is probably a couple wins vs the Hawks.  So we're basically saying that we'd rather have #9 than a sweep, but if there's a couple playoff wins it's fine that we get stuck with #15. 

[LarBrd33]

I brought this up before, but a wonderful example of this is Philly in 2012.   Granted, that young Philly team was better than the 2015 Celtics... they actually managed to finish 4 games above .500.  But they were a pretty mediocre young squad that made the playoffs as the 8th seed.

Thanks to some fluke injuries (D-Rose got hurt), Philly managed to knock off the #1 Seed Bulls in Round 1.  Only the 5th time in NBA history that happened.

In Round 2, Philly pushed the old KG/Pierce/Ray Celtics to 7 games (Boston eventually went on to lose to Miami in the ECF).   

Heck of an experience for the young Philly team.   

The results:

#15 pick - Mo Harkness.     Fwiw, #9 that year net Andre Drummond.

Despite the playoff experience, Philly ended up winning 34 games the next year and missing the playoffs.  The next year they won 19 games.

[Nerf DPOY]

I brought this up before, but a wonderful example of this is Philly in 2012.   Granted, that young Philly team was better than the 2015 Celtics... they actually managed to finish 4 games above .500.  But they were a pretty mediocre young squad that made the playoffs as the 8th seed.

Thanks to some fluke injuries (D-Rose got hurt), Philly managed to knock off the #1 Seed Bulls in Round 1.  Only the 5th time in NBA history that happened.

In Round 2, Philly pushed the old KG/Pierce/Ray Celtics to 7 games (Boston eventually went on to lose to Miami in the ECF).   

Heck of an experience for the young Philly team.   

The results:

#15 pick - Mo Harkness.     Fwiw, #9 that year net Andre Drummond.

Despite the playoff experience, Philly ended up winning 34 games the next year and missing the playoffs.  The next year they won 19 games.

Okay, but that's complicated by that they made a deal for Bynum which of course was a disaster. With Iguodala and pick #15, who knows. Too many moving parts.

[LarBrd33]

On the flip side, it also semi-happened last year.

Atlanta makes the playoffs with 38 wins
New York misses the playoffs with 37 wins.

Results: 

Atlanta picks #15 - Adriene Payne.  They ended up dumping him mid-season for what will likely be two future 2nd round picks.

Knicks pick was projected #12.  Pick was owned by Orlando.  Orlando selected Dario Saric.  Orlando trades Saric on draft night for the rights to Elfrid Payton.

So basically that little playoff dance cost the Hawks Elfrid Payton.  Granted, this convoluted example is terrible, because the very next season the Hawks finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference.   But that had very little to do with their 2014 playoff appearance (where they lost to Indiana in 7 games) and more to do with getting their all-star center back this season (Horford and the Hawks have been a consistent 44-53 win playoff team since 2008). 

[Quetzalcoatl]

On the flip side, it also semi-happened last year.

Atlanta makes the playoffs with 38 wins
New York misses the playoffs with 37 wins.

Results: 

Atlanta picks #15 - Adriene Payne.  They ended up dumping him mid-season for what will likely be two future 2nd round picks.

Knicks pick was projected #12.  Pick was owned by Orlando.  Orlando selected Dario Saric.  Orlando trades Saric on draft night for the rights to Elfrid Payton.

So basically that little playoff dance cost the Hawks Elfrid Payton.  Granted, this convoluted example is terrible, because the very next season the Hawks finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference.   But that had very little to do with their 2014 playoff appearance (where they lost to Indiana in 7 games) and more to do with getting their all-star center back this season (Horford and the Hawks have been a consistent 44-53 win playoff team since 2008).

Hoford was out all year though and they got a new coach who's amazing.  Sullinger isn't going to take us to 60 wins next year, he's much too fat

[jpotter33]

Even getting swept, I think making the playoffs makes us twice as attractive to free agents than not making it. I'm also of the camp who doubts we win against the Hawks, but I think we match up fairly well with Atlanta and woukd give them a scare to game 6 or 7.

[chambers]

Good topic.

#9 pick for me.
Don't care about playoffs when a lot of the team won't be here. Free agents have seen how good our coach is and have seen Smart's impact on the defensive end.

We need to acquire at least a serious starting caliber player.

I'm not a believer in the playoffs/free agency thing I don't see Khris Middleton deciding to pick the Celtics as his new team over other teams if we do or don't make the playoffs. Mangers and Sports Agents are smart enough and Ainge is smart enough to sell them on what we are building here- the second half of our season is enough for me.

But the most critical part about acquiring that 9th pick for me is having the ability to move up and get an even better player in the top 5.
Combining the #15 and #25 picks might get us pick #11 or #12.

But if we had the #9 pick and the #25 pick AND all our Brooklyn picks I think we could feasibly move into the top 5 if Danny has a guy that he really likes.

eg: #9 pick+Clippers pick+a Brooklyn pick in 2017= Kristaps Porzingis or D'Angelo Russell?
That's pretty sweet to think about moving into territory that would give us a chance at drafting:
 
D'Angelo Russell PG/SG
Mudiay PG/SG
Willie Cauley-Stein C
Stanley Johnson SF
Justise Winslow SF
Mario Hezonja SG/SF
Kristaps Porzingis PF


Coming into 2015-16 with a line up with a young free agent signing like Khris Middleton:

Smart
Bradley
Middleton
Sullinger
Porzingis

would be a very sweet outcome for this season and very possible too.

[n4nirvana]

9th best odds

Every little number helps / improved talent helps

Reason being - the overall talent on the team is not quite there to make a statement in the playoffs

This team wins by heart and grit and Brad Stevens

And you know its great "in the moment"

But losses to Detroit and Miami and the blow out to the Spurs should be a reality check

Good teams beat Detroit and an undermanned Miami.

We're not quite there yet 

Worse case scenario is Celtics don't have a lottery pick, don't pick up any FAs of note
That's a real possibility of happening

As a consequence there's a very real risk that the Celtics becomes Charlotte version 2.0 from 2016 onwards ...

The play off free agent argument doesn't ring true to me. Free agents will still flock to Los Angeles and New York despite their abysmal records. 

[BornReady]

I'd rather not get in the playoffs to be swept by the Hawks
That said there is not much good players where we would be potentially picking at 10-14
Outside of the top 6 there are serious question marks surrounding the other players

I prefer the 9th pick but if we make the playoffs I do t think I would cry much about it

[cb8883]

I'd rather not get in the playoffs to be swept by the Hawks
That said there is not much good players where we would be potentially picking at 10-14
Outside of the top 6 there are serious question marks surrounding the other players

I prefer the 9th pick but if we make the playoffs I do t think I would cry much about it

I agree with most of this. This is why we cannot win another game this year. Tank hard for the best draft position you can get and pray for ping pong balls.

[wdleehi]

Since I hate below 500 playoff teams, I rather give Ainge the better asset to use to build that non-below 500 team.  (one step at a time)