The Celtics have blown four drafts in a row.

[spikelovetheCelts]

I will repeat: My criticism of Ainge is that in the drafts from 2011 on, he looked long and hard at other players he could of had and in every case got the pick wrong. In 2011 it looked like he was going with Chandler Parsons but picked Johnson. Miss. In 2012 there were a number of players that people thought would go at 22 to Boston. Out of the blue he takes Fab Melo. Miss. In 2013 Danny was the first GM to be reported as looking at Giannis. He was certainly the first to see him in person and almost every media report had Boston going for Antetokounmpo. Instead DA trades up and takes Olynyk. Miss. So even if you leave Sullinger out of it which I will concede was most likely worth it at 21 the Celtics have made the wrong choice between selections in three drafts. Now in 2014 Payton is far better so far than Smart and Young looks like the next Gerald Green. There is not a single player Boston has picked in the last four drafts that has people thinking they could be a real cornerstone. This is not a hindsight argument. Boston looked at specific players and in the end picked wrong each time.

Spot on...totally agree.

cherry picking to support an argument.

JJ -> kid was considered BPA at the time of this pick.  kid had the athletic skills and the college resume to support this being a smart pick.  kid just didn't have the mental make-up apparently to push to succeed.  other option considered at that spot was Brooks.  we had him for a short time and jettisoned him quickly.    A lot of teams passed on Parsons --> dropped to the second round.  Everyone missed on him.  Not going to hold it against Danny for making what many considered the smart pick.

Melo -> I'll go along with this being a dumb pick.  said before he was picked, when he was picked and after he was picked.  had bust written all over him.  question is, who was an obvious pick other than Melo (besides "everyone else left on the board")?  I would have thought Ezeli but he hasn't lit the league on fire.

Sully --> solid pick.  can't complain about it at all.

KO --> wasn't a fan of his on draft night and was surprised to see Danny move up to get him.  Personally, I wanted Dieng (still do).  KO has shown some flashes that he can be a 1st big off the bench, as has Dieng.  The crying over Giannis is a lot of revisionist garbage.  some people like to swing for the fences and that's what this kid represents.  he's still not doing more than showing flashes of being good.  He's just as inconsistant as KO just more athletic. 

Smart --> I'd like more offensive production from him like driving to the basket but other than that, I have to say he's fantastic on D.  kid is a real disruptive force and is a major positive when he's on the floor.  I don't think he's our next starting PG but quite possibly our next SG if his shot continues to develop.  claiming Payton is better is folly.  Payton's a better ballhandler and passer but Smart's a better scorer and defender by far.   Best question here is  --> who would have been the preferred choice?  no one selected after him has impressed me including Payton.

Young -> way to early to write this kid off.  kid has a good-looking shot and with offseason coaching and workouts can hopefully develop into instant offense off the bench that doesn't kill us on D.

Sorry one more:

Olynk was a very solid pick at 13:

Year   Player   Drafted From   Drafted By
2013   Kelly Olynyk   Gonzaga   Dallas
2012   Kendall Marshall   North Carolina   Phoenix
2011   Markieff Morris   Kansas   Phoenix
2010   Ed Davis   North Carolina   Toronto
2009   Tyler Hansbrough   North Carolina   Indiana
2008   Brandon Rush   Kansas   Portland
2007   Julian Wright   Kansas   NO
2006   Thabo Sefolosha   Switzerland   Chicago
2005   Sean May   North Carolina Jr.   Charlotte
2004   Sebastian Telfair   NY HSSr.   Portland
2003   Marcus Banks   UNLV Sr.   Memphis
2002   Marcus Haislip   Tennessee Jr.   Milwaukee
2001   Richard Jefferson   Arizona Jr.   Houston
2000   Courtney Alexander   Fresno St. Sr.   Orlando
1999   Corey Maggette   Duke Fr.   Seattle
1998   Keon Clark   UNLV   Orlando
1997   Derek Anderson   Kentucky   Cleveland
1996   Kobe Bryant   Lower Merion HS   NO Hornets
1995   Corliss Williamson   Arkansas   Sacramento
1994   Jalen Rose   Michigan   Denver
1993   Terry Dehere   Seton Hall   LA Clippers
1992   Bryant Stith   Virginia   Denver
1991   Dale Davis   Clemson   Indiana
1990   Loy Vaught   Michigan   LA Clippers
1989   Michael Smith   Brigham Young   Boston
1988   Jeff Grayer   Iowa State   Milwaukee
1987   Joe Wolf   North Carolina   LA Clippers
1986   Dwayne Washington   Syracuse   New Jersey
1985   Karl Malone   Louisiana Tech   Utah
1984   Jay Humphries   Colorado   Phoenix
1983   Ennis Whatley   Alabama   Kansas City
1982   Eric Floyd   Georgetown   New Jersey
1981   Danny Schayes   Syracuse   Utah
1980   Rickey Brown   Mississippi State   Golden State

1999,
 1996 1994 and 1985 the rest KO is better than now.
2001 Jefferson he may out do.
DA can draft. I think he will do great this year with our pick. Hopefully Next year we get a top 5 from the nets.

[Beat LA]

I just hope we get an athletic big sometime in the future.  I am sick of the slow ones that struggle on D.

Melo was always a project prospect, though. Can't blame Ainge for that one.

Melo was a reach, I think.  His college stats aside from shot blocking are underwhelming.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/fab-melo-1.html

7.8 PPG   5 Reb is bad for a seven footer. He was an elite shot blocker at 2.9 a game but can you trust a guy who just played zone in college?

He will go down as a wasted pick and the dude that killed Boeheim's career.

If you're going to "reach", pick 22 is a good place to do it. Just about every pick at that spot busts out of the league historically. Swing for the fences in the 20's..

Yeah, that's what I mean. He was a wasted pick but we were looking for something/anything to fill backup big men minutes.

Looking back, Khris Middleton was available, although I was hoping for Wroten after Sully.  If we're talking about the serious need at the time for a backup big guy for KG, though, we could have just taken Henry Sims instead of Kris Joseph.  Getting Sully, Wroten, and Sims in one draft is one hell of a haul, imo.

[Vermont Green]

All these threads about how good or bad Danny Ainge is at drafting illustrate just how hard it is to judge it in a way that is fact or data based.  It seems like the most critical expect Danny to pick the absolute best player left on the board every time.  A more realistic expectation is to get decent value with every pick as compared to the historical value of the pick.  An easier metric might be to never have a total bust.

Danny has had 16 first round picks since 2003, only 3 have been higher than 15.  He used two of those high ones (#5 and #7) to set up the KG trade and to get Ray Allen.  Here is the whole list:

Smart            (6)
Young           (17)
Olynyk          (16, trade Nogueira)
Sullinger       (21)
Melo             (22)
J. Johnson     (25, trade Brooks)
Bradley         (19)
Giddens        (30)
Jeff Green     (5, Ray Allen)
Foye             (7, trade, helped get KG)
G. Green       (18)
Jefferson       (15)
West             (24)
Tony Allen     (25)
Banks           (16, trade Bell)
Perkins         (20, trade Jones)

[Note:  Rondo at 19 was officially a trade]

I remain baffled at the critics.  I just don't see what the problem is.

[byennie]

Amen. Perkins, Tony Allen, Delonte West, Sullinger, Big Baby (2nd round) were all darn good picks in the 20+ range.

Jefferson at 15 one of the better centers in the league and got us KG.

G Green a consensus top-5 before the draft, at 18. Now again a good player.

J Green + West (#5 + #24) got us Ray Allen.

Bradley a good value at #19.

A few busts at what,  16, 22 and 30? As if those weren't calculated risks?

[JHTruth]

I will repeat: My criticism of Ainge is that in the drafts from 2011 on, he looked long and hard at other players he could of had and in every case got the pick wrong. In 2011 it looked like he was going with Chandler Parsons but picked Johnson. Miss. In 2012 there were a number of players that people thought would go at 22 to Boston. Out of the blue he takes Fab Melo. Miss. In 2013 Danny was the first GM to be reported as looking at Giannis. He was certainly the first to see him in person and almost every media report had Boston going for Antetokounmpo. Instead DA trades up and takes Olynyk. Miss. So even if you leave Sullinger out of it which I will concede was most likely worth it at 21 the Celtics have made the wrong choice between selections in three drafts. Now in 2014 Payton is far better so far than Smart and Young looks like the next Gerald Green. There is not a single player Boston has picked in the last four drafts that has people thinking they could be a real cornerstone. This is not a hindsight argument. Boston looked at specific players and in the end picked wrong each time.

Spot on...totally agree.

cherry picking to support an argument.

JJ -> kid was considered BPA at the time of this pick.  kid had the athletic skills and the college resume to support this being a smart pick.  kid just didn't have the mental make-up apparently to push to succeed.  other option considered at that spot was Brooks.  we had him for a short time and jettisoned him quickly.    A lot of teams passed on Parsons --> dropped to the second round.  Everyone missed on him.  Not going to hold it against Danny for making what many considered the smart pick.

Melo -> I'll go along with this being a dumb pick.  said before he was picked, when he was picked and after he was picked.  had bust written all over him.  question is, who was an obvious pick other than Melo (besides "everyone else left on the board")?  I would have thought Ezeli but he hasn't lit the league on fire.

Sully --> solid pick.  can't complain about it at all.

KO --> wasn't a fan of his on draft night and was surprised to see Danny move up to get him.  Personally, I wanted Dieng (still do).  KO has shown some flashes that he can be a 1st big off the bench, as has Dieng.  The crying over Giannis is a lot of revisionist garbage.  some people like to swing for the fences and that's what this kid represents.  he's still not doing more than showing flashes of being good.  He's just as inconsistant as KO just more athletic. 

Smart --> I'd like more offensive production from him like driving to the basket but other than that, I have to say he's fantastic on D.  kid is a real disruptive force and is a major positive when he's on the floor.  I don't think he's our next starting PG but quite possibly our next SG if his shot continues to develop.  claiming Payton is better is folly.  Payton's a better ballhandler and passer but Smart's a better scorer and defender by far.   Best question here is  --> who would have been the preferred choice?  no one selected after him has impressed me including Payton.

Young -> way to early to write this kid off.  kid has a good-looking shot and with offseason coaching and workouts can hopefully develop into instant offense off the bench that doesn't kill us on D.

Sorry one more:

Olynk was a very solid pick at 13:

Year   Player   Drafted From   Drafted By
2013   Kelly Olynyk   Gonzaga   Dallas
2012   Kendall Marshall   North Carolina   Phoenix
2011   Markieff Morris   Kansas   Phoenix
2010   Ed Davis   North Carolina   Toronto
2009   Tyler Hansbrough   North Carolina   Indiana
2008   Brandon Rush   Kansas   Portland
2007   Julian Wright   Kansas   NO
2006   Thabo Sefolosha   Switzerland   Chicago
2005   Sean May   North Carolina Jr.   Charlotte
2004   Sebastian Telfair   NY HSSr.   Portland
2003   Marcus Banks   UNLV Sr.   Memphis
2002   Marcus Haislip   Tennessee Jr.   Milwaukee
2001   Richard Jefferson   Arizona Jr.   Houston
2000   Courtney Alexander   Fresno St. Sr.   Orlando
1999   Corey Maggette   Duke Fr.   Seattle
1998   Keon Clark   UNLV   Orlando
1997   Derek Anderson   Kentucky   Cleveland
1996   Kobe Bryant   Lower Merion HS   NO Hornets
1995   Corliss Williamson   Arkansas   Sacramento
1994   Jalen Rose   Michigan   Denver
1993   Terry Dehere   Seton Hall   LA Clippers
1992   Bryant Stith   Virginia   Denver
1991   Dale Davis   Clemson   Indiana
1990   Loy Vaught   Michigan   LA Clippers
1989   Michael Smith   Brigham Young   Boston
1988   Jeff Grayer   Iowa State   Milwaukee
1987   Joe Wolf   North Carolina   LA Clippers
1986   Dwayne Washington   Syracuse   New Jersey
1985   Karl Malone   Louisiana Tech   Utah
1984   Jay Humphries   Colorado   Phoenix
1983   Ennis Whatley   Alabama   Kansas City
1982   Eric Floyd   Georgetown   New Jersey
1981   Danny Schayes   Syracuse   Utah
1980   Rickey Brown   Mississippi State   Golden State

1999,
 1996 1994 and 1985 the rest KO is better than now.
2001 Jefferson he may out do.
DA can draft. I think he will do great this year with our pick. Hopefully Next year we get a top 5 from the nets.

Yeah and one could argue that Kobe was possibly the best draft pick in NBA history, and such an outlier that it could be discarded from the analysis

[loco_91]

All these threads about how good or bad Danny Ainge is at drafting illustrate just how hard it is to judge it in a way that is fact or data based.  It seems like the most critical expect Danny to pick the absolute best player left on the board every time.  A more realistic expectation is to get decent value with every pick as compared to the historical value of the pick.  An easier metric might be to never have a total bust.

Danny has had 16 first round picks since 2003, only 3 have been higher than 15.  He used two of those high ones (#5 and #7) to set up the KG trade and to get Ray Allen.  Here is the whole list:

Smart            (6)
Young           (17)
Olynyk          (16, trade Nogueira)
Sullinger       (21)
Melo             (22)
J. Johnson     (25, trade Brooks)
Bradley         (19)
Giddens        (30)
Jeff Green     (5, Ray Allen)
Foye             (7, trade, helped get KG)
G. Green       (18)
Jefferson       (15)
West             (24)
Tony Allen     (25)
Banks           (16, trade Bell)
Perkins         (20, trade Jones)

[Note:  Rondo at 19 was officially a trade]

I remain baffled at the critics.  I just don't see what the problem is.

Wow. Based on this list, Ainge is an excellent drafter. He gets a lot of legit starters out of mid-late first rounders, which is not something that most GM's can say. Sully at 21 was a steal, KO was likely the best prospect available and panned out as the 2nd-best player available, Smart was obviously best prospect available, and Young I thought was questionable but there just weren't great options available. Then you look back, AB was obviously a great pick, Jefferson was awesome value at #15, and Tony Allen at #25 was a steal...

[JHTruth]

All these threads about how good or bad Danny Ainge is at drafting illustrate just how hard it is to judge it in a way that is fact or data based.  It seems like the most critical expect Danny to pick the absolute best player left on the board every time.  A more realistic expectation is to get decent value with every pick as compared to the historical value of the pick.  An easier metric might be to never have a total bust.

Danny has had 16 first round picks since 2003, only 3 have been higher than 15.  He used two of those high ones (#5 and #7) to set up the KG trade and to get Ray Allen.  Here is the whole list:

Smart            (6)
Young           (17)
Olynyk          (16, trade Nogueira)
Sullinger       (21)
Melo             (22)
J. Johnson     (25, trade Brooks)
Bradley         (19)
Giddens        (30)
Jeff Green     (5, Ray Allen)
Foye             (7, trade, helped get KG)
G. Green       (18)
Jefferson       (15)
West             (24)
Tony Allen     (25)
Banks           (16, trade Bell)
Perkins         (20, trade Jones)

[Note:  Rondo at 19 was officially a trade]

I remain baffled at the critics.  I just don't see what the problem is.

Wow. Based on this list, Ainge is an excellent drafter. He gets a lot of legit starters out of mid-late first rounders, which is not something that most GM's can say. Sully at 21 was a steal, KO was likely the best prospect available and panned out as the 2nd-best player available, Smart was obviously best prospect available, and Young I thought was questionable but there just weren't great options available. Then you look back, AB was obviously a great pick, Jefferson was awesome value at #15, and Tony Allen at #25 was a steal...

TA top 3 25 picks ever:

2013   Reggie Bullock   North Carolina   LA Clippers
2012   Tony Wroten   Washington   Memphis
2011   Marshon Brooks   Providence   Boston
2010   Dominique Jones   South Florida   Memphis
2009   Rodrigue Beaubois   France   Oklahoma
2008   Nicolas Batum   France   Houston
2007   Morris Almond   Rice   Utah
2006   Shannon Brown   Michigan State   Cleveland
2005   Johan Petro   France 1986   Seattle
2004   Tony Allen   Oklahoma St. Sr.   Boston
2003   Carlos Delfino   Argentina 1982   Detroit
2002   Nenad Krstic   Yugoslavia 1983   New Jersey
2001   Raul Lopez   Spain 1980   Utah
2000   Jake Tsakalidis   AEK Greece   Phoenix
1999   Tim James   MiamiSr.   Miami
1998   Al Harrington   St. Patrick's HSSr.   Indiana
1997   John Thomas   Minnesota   New York
1996   Martin Muursepp   BC Kalev Tallinn   Utah
1995   David Vaughn   Memphis   Orlando
1994   Greg Minor   Louisville   LA Clippers
1993   Corie Blount   Cincinnati   Chicago
1992   Elmore Spencer   Nevada-Las Vegas   LA Clippers
1991   Shaun Vandiver   Colorado   Golden State
1990   Alaa Abdelnaby   Duke   Portland
1989   John Morton   Seton Hall   Cleveland
1988   David Rivers   Notre Dame   LA Lakers
1987   Ron Moore   West Virginia State   New York
1986   Mark Price   Georgia Tech   Dallas
1985   Mike Smrek   Canisius   Portland
1984   Devin Durrant   Brigham Young   Indiana
1983   Sidney Lowe   North Carolina State   Chicago
1982   Bryan Warrick   St. Joseph's   Washington
1981   Tracy Jackson   Notre Dame   Boston
1980   Jeff Ruland   Iona   Golden State

Big Al huge value at 15 as well:

2013   Giannis Adetokunbo   Greece   Milwaukee
2012   Moe Harkless   St. John's   Philadelphia
2011   Kawhi Leonard   San Diego St.   Indiana
2010   Larry Sanders   VCU   Milwaukee
2009   Austin Daye   Gonzaga   Detroit
2008   Robin Lopez   Stanford   Phoenix
2007   Rodney Stuckey   Eastern Wash   Detroit
2006   Cedric Simmons   NC State   New Orleans
2005   Antoine Wright   A&M Jr.   New Jersey
2004   Al Jefferson   MS HSSr.   Boston
2003   Reece Gaines   Louisville Sr.   Orlando
2002   Bostjan Nachbar   Slovenia 1980   Houston
2001   Steven Hunter   DePaul So.   Orlando
2000   Jason Collier   Georgia St. Sr.   Milwaukee
1999   Frederick Weis   France   New York
1998   Matt Harpring   Georgia Tech   Orlando
1997   Kelvin Cato   Iowa State   Minnesota
1996   Steve Nash   Santa Clara   Phoenix
1995   Brent Barry   Oregon State   Denver
1994   Eric Piatkowski   Nebraska   Indiana
1993   Doug Edwards   Florida State   Atlanta
1992   Anthony Peeler   Missouri   LA Lakers
1991   Anthony Avent   Seton Hall   Atlanta
1990   Dave Jamerson   Ohio   Miami
1989   Todd Lichti   Stanford   Denver
1988   Gary Grant   Michigan   Seattle
1987   Jose Ortiz   Oregon State   Utah
1986   Dell Curry   Virginia Tech   Utah
1985   Blair Rasmussen   Oregon   Denver
1984   Terence Stansbury   Temple   Dallas
1983   Howard Carter   Louisiana State   Denver
1982   David Thirdkill   Bradley   Phoenix
1981   Jeff Lamp   Virginia   Portland
1980   Reggie Johnson   Tennessee   San Antonio