Is Khris Middleton the Celtics most likely attainable free agent this o/season?

[Roy H.]

$8 million, sign me up. $10 million is overpaying, but justifiable. Above that, no way.

So you would not have interest in him at amount that the Bucks wouldn't match?

I would pay more ($12 MM) because that extra $2 MM is the difference between us signing him or getting nothing.

I'm not. As you know, I love Middleton (go DKC Cavs!), but I worry about his lack of a track record (outside of great shooting)

2m a year more for Middleton will barely be noticeable when the cap exceeds 100M in 2 seasons.

It's not $2 million more.  It's $11 million more than he's ever earned before.  If his production and age warrant $8 million per year based upon one season of very good defensive play and half of a season of strong offense, do we pay 150% of that for four years?

What if he regresses to the player he was last year, when he was a legitimately terrible defender and mediocre offensively?  That would be the equivalent of giving a defensively-challenged Courtney Lee $12 million per year, which doesn't make sense.

If we're committing $12 million+ to a player, I'd like to see more than a half-season of being a good two-way player.

[LooseCannon]

If we're committing $12 million+ to a player, I'd like to see more than a half-season of being a good two-way player.

Then you should want to target a player in the 28- to 30-year-old age range (which I don't think is a bad thing for this team).  If Middleton had a longer track record, he'd probably be unattainable.

[LarBrd33]

I keep reading that they'll match any offer.  Bucks (and Orlando with Harris) would be silly not to match considering how the cap is going to jump.

That said, if the Bucks (or Orlando with Harris) truly didn't want to hang onto their player, could they work out some kind of sign-and-trade?   I haven't kept up on sign-and-trade rules... especially ones involving restricted free agents.  What kind of deal is possible if Khris comes to the Bucks and says, "Look, I want to play in Boston... they want to pay me max... you guys don't want to commit that kind of money, but don't want to lose me for nothing... let's work something out"?

[Eddie20]

$8 million, sign me up. $10 million is overpaying, but justifiable. Above that, no way.

So you would not have interest in him at amount that the Bucks wouldn't match?

I would pay more ($12 MM) because that extra $2 MM is the difference between us signing him or getting nothing.

I'm not. As you know, I love Middleton (go DKC Cavs!), but I worry about his lack of a track record (outside of great shooting)

2m a year more for Middleton will barely be noticeable when the cap exceeds 100M in 2 seasons.

It's not $2 million more.  It's $11 million more than he's ever earned before.  If his production and age warrant $8 million per year based upon one season of very good defensive play and half of a season of strong offense, do we pay 150% of that for four years?

What if he regresses to the player he was last year, when he was a legitimately terrible defender and mediocre offensively?  That would be the equivalent of giving a defensively-challenged Courtney Lee $12 million per year, which doesn't make sense.

If we're committing $12 million+ to a player, I'd like to see more than a half-season of being a good two-way player.

On the flipside, what if he continues his growth and that contract ends up being a bargain? He's still only 23 and this was just his second season (3rd season overall) in being given consistent minutes, so I'd feel confident in thinking he improves rather than regresses. In addition, unlike Draymond Green, he's not really playing off of anyone in Milwaukee. They lost Parker to injury and traded away Knight for an arguably worse player/definitely worse shooter in MCW and he continued to roll.

[Eddie20]

I keep reading that they'll match any offer.  Bucks (and Orlando with Harris) would be silly not to match considering how the cap is going to jump.

That said, if the Bucks (or Orlando with Harris) truly didn't want to hang onto their player, could they work out some kind of sign-and-trade?   I haven't kept up on sign-and-trade rules... especially ones involving restricted free agents.  What kind of deal is possible if Khris comes to the Bucks and says, "Look, I want to play in Boston... they want to pay me max... you guys don't want to commit that kind of money, but don't want to lose me for nothing... let's work something out"?

C's wouldn't benefit. Middleton wouldn't benefit. C's have cap space to sign him outright. So what's the incentive for anyone other than Milwaukee in the scenario, Bucks refusing to match the C's money offer, you proposed?

[Ilikesports17]

I think this is the kind of guy you take a risk on and pay him big money. Hes 23 has shown constant improvement and offers a lot of versatility because he can play the 2 and the 3 at a high level on both ends of the floor.

Hes the type of guy I want us taking risks on. Had he proven himself for 2 years as a two way player who can create his own shot along with 3 point accuracy and defensive abilities like his then he is untouchable.

With the cap rising, no team is going to let a proven star walk unless they literally cannot afford to resign him. You have to take risks like this. Id Say Khris Middleton with no improvement will be worth 12+ million under the new cap. Id bet on him improving to max value over the next few years.

[Roy H.]

$8 million, sign me up. $10 million is overpaying, but justifiable. Above that, no way.

So you would not have interest in him at amount that the Bucks wouldn't match?

I would pay more ($12 MM) because that extra $2 MM is the difference between us signing him or getting nothing.

I'm not. As you know, I love Middleton (go DKC Cavs!), but I worry about his lack of a track record (outside of great shooting)

2m a year more for Middleton will barely be noticeable when the cap exceeds 100M in 2 seasons.

It's not $2 million more.  It's $11 million more than he's ever earned before.  If his production and age warrant $8 million per year based upon one season of very good defensive play and half of a season of strong offense, do we pay 150% of that for four years?

What if he regresses to the player he was last year, when he was a legitimately terrible defender and mediocre offensively?  That would be the equivalent of giving a defensively-challenged Courtney Lee $12 million per year, which doesn't make sense.

If we're committing $12 million+ to a player, I'd like to see more than a half-season of being a good two-way player.

On the flipside, what if he continues his growth and that contract ends up being a bargain? He's still only 23 and this was just his second season (3rd season overall) in being given consistent minutes, so I'd feel confident in thinking he improves rather than regresses. In addition, unlike Draymond Green, he's not really playing off of anyone in Milwaukee. They lost Parker to injury and traded away Knight for an arguably worse player/definitely worse shooter in MCW and he continued to roll.

I think that over-paying based upon what you hope a player will turn into is bad business.  There are tons of players who never improved past their third season; season-to-season progression is a fallacy perpetuated by agents and bought into by fans, but it doesn't have a ton of basis in reality. 

How many role players have suddenly developed into stars?

[BornReady]

Man if the Bucks keep all their young talent they will be a force to reckon with in the future
MCW, Middleton, Parker, Henson and the Greek freak

That is a nice starting lineup
Very big with length at all positions and the ability to mix and match defensively

[byennie]

I think that over-paying based upon what you hope a player will turn into is bad business.  There are tons of players who never improved past their third season; season-to-season progression is a fallacy perpetuated by agents and bought into by fans, but it doesn't have a ton of basis in reality. 

How many role players have suddenly developed into stars?

I agree in principle about paying for future projection; however, Middleton's *current* production is arguably worth 15-20% of the cap. He's averaged 17-5-3 as a starter with 40% 3PT and among the league leaders in advanced metrics. That's a very high threshold for "role player".

Also, it certainly doesn't happen every time, but many All-Stars make significant leaps 3+ years into their careers. Guys like Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Chandler Parsons, Paul George, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Jeff Teague, Stephen Curry, even Rondo come to mind. Now many of them showed their ability early in their careers, but anyone locking them up at age 23 would have been handsomely rewarded.

[Monkhouse]

I would like to believe if we could give Middleton a 11-12 year contract, with the intention of re-signing him after his 2 year contract ends to give him a lucrative contract might open up his interest.

Would love a backcourt of Smart and Middleton. Go after Love, trade a boatload of picks for Noel.

Smart
Middleton
Crowder
Love
Noel

Guess a man can dream.

[konkmv]

Not interested