Is Khris Middleton the Celtics most likely attainable free agent this o/season?

[Roy H.]

For guys that are against the max. What do feel is his actual value?

I say old cap 7-10 million per. The new cap 10-13 million per. By the numbers at 11 million team could still afford two max guys in 2016. So I'm on board at 11 million.

I'd be scared at even $11 million.  Middleton rated as a very poor defender last year.  He's been very good this year.  Is that sustainable, or is that contract year effort? 

I like Middleton, but to me it's just too soon to give him a huge contract.  I understand that you're not going to be able to sign Middleton for what he's worth, because he's a restricted free agent.  However, I'd rather commit resources toward somebody else than overplay based on the potential of one good stretch of 40 games.

Who would you rather commit resources too?

The prototype of the player I want is a 3 who can really shoot it and defend, that is young enough to have a lot of room for improvement. To me that sounds like Middleton.

No idea at this point.  A guy like Danny Green made $4 million this season, and nobody is talking about him signing a max deal.  I'd much rather sign him to a reasonable deal than pay Middleton the ridiculous contracts folks are talking about. DeMarre Carroll has a similar skillset, and he made $2.5 million.  Again, good player, about the same caliber as Middleton has shown this year, and nobody in their right mind is going to pay him $15 million+.

[Csfan1984]

For guys that are against the max. What do feel is his actual value?

I say old cap 7-10 million per. The new cap 10-13 million per. By the numbers at 11 million team could still afford two max guys in 2016. So I'm on board at 11 million.

I'd be scared at even $11 million.  Middleton rated as a very poor defender last year.  He's been very good this year.  Is that sustainable, or is that contract year effort? 

I like Middleton, but to me it's just too soon to give him a huge contract.  I understand that you're not going to be able to sign Middleton for what he's worth, because he's a restricted free agent.  However, I'd rather commit resources toward somebody else than overplay based on the potential of one good stretch of 40 games.

That is a safer approach.

[chambers]

For guys that are against the max. What do feel is his actual value?

I say old cap 7-10 million per. The new cap 10-13 million per. By the numbers at 11 million team could still afford two max guys in 2016. So I'm on board at 11 million.

I'd be scared at even $11 million.  Middleton rated as a very poor defender last year.  He's been very good this year.  Is that sustainable, or is that contract year effort? 

I like Middleton, but to me it's just too soon to give him a huge contract.  I understand that you're not going to be able to sign Middleton for what he's worth, because he's a restricted free agent.  However, I'd rather commit resources toward somebody else than overplay based on the potential of one good stretch of 40 games.

Who would you rather commit resources too?

The prototype of the player I want is a 3 who can really shoot it and defend, that is young enough to have a lot of room for improvement. To me that sounds like Middleton.

No idea at this point.  A guy like Danny Green made $4 million this season, and nobody is talking about him signing a max deal.  I'd much rather sign him to a reasonable deal than pay Middleton the ridiculous contracts folks are talking about. DeMarre Carroll has a similar skillset, and he made $2.5 million.  Again, good player, about the same caliber as Middleton has shown this year, and nobody in their right mind is going to pay him $15 million+.

DeMare Carroll? There's no comparison between a 23 year old Middleton and a 28 year old Carroll.
Again, Middleton taking up 14 or 15 % of the cap would be a perfectly justifiable gamble.

Look at his efficiency. Look at his three point shooting.
Are we going to wait around for 5 seasons waiting for the $25 million max guys? How about 10 seasons?
We're talking about giving a third option guy some 4th option money and at worst, he remains a 4th option money guy. The upside is that he continues to show rapid improvement and continues to be one of the best shooters in the NBA, and starts hitting Jimmy Butler numbers.
He becomes a powerful trade chip or a vital piece to the future of our franchise, or a fairly paid elite role player.

Here's the number Roy: $108 million.

[Roy H.]

DeMare Carroll? There's no comparison between a 23 year old Middleton and a 28 year old Carroll.

Okay, so we're truly in the land of make believe. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=carrode01&y2=2015&p2=middlkh01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

It's hard for me to take you seriously when you say there's "no comparison" between two guys who were almost statistically identical last year.  The only difference is that Carroll played on the best team in the East.

Why on earth would we pay Middleton 4 to 6 times what guys like Carroll and Green got?  Does that sound like a good investment?

[chambers]

DeMare Carroll? There's no comparison between a 23 year old Middleton and a 28 year old Carroll.

Okay, so we're truly in the land of make believe. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=carrode01&y2=2015&p2=middlkh01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

It's hard for me to take you seriously when you say there's "no comparison" between two guys who were almost statistically identical last year.  The only difference is that Carroll played on the best team in the East.

Why on earth would we pay Middleton 4 to 6 times what guys like Carroll and Green got?  Does that sound like a good investment?

'The only difference'? C'mon man gimme a break. Middleton is clearly a better overall player than both of those guys given his age and NBA experience, and if you won't admit that, then there's no point discussing it.

He belongs in conversations with Parsons and Hayward, and the fact that he's younger and shown as good or better numbers at his age/experience than both of those guys says something about his talent.

Carroll is a 28 year old role player with zero potential left. He's reached his ceiling. Middleton is coming off his 2nd season as a starter and 3rd season in the NBA.

Since the All Star break he's posting numbers that are as good or better than Chandler Parsons and Gordon Hayward who both make the money we are talking about. His per 36 numbers have been as good or better than Chandler's all season and his usage % is still less than both of them. Are the Jazz and Mavs going to be hamstrung with those contracts as the cap hits 89 and then 108 million?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parsoch01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html

You're not getting Khris Middleton for 4 million dollars because he's a far better player than both Carroll and Danny Green were at that stage of their careers.

I just don't see how giving Middleton 15% of the cap as he enters his prime going to ever be a disastrous move for the Celtics no matter how you look at it.

[Roy H.]

DeMare Carroll? There's no comparison between a 23 year old Middleton and a 28 year old Carroll.

Okay, so we're truly in the land of make believe. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=carrode01&y2=2015&p2=middlkh01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

It's hard for me to take you seriously when you say there's "no comparison" between two guys who were almost statistically identical last year.  The only difference is that Carroll played on the best team in the East.

Why on earth would we pay Middleton 4 to 6 times what guys like Carroll and Green got?  Does that sound like a good investment?

'The only difference'? C'mon man gimme a break. Middleton is clearly a better overall player than both of those guys given his age and NBA experience, and if you won't admit that, then there's no point discussing it.

So we just ignore the stats, both traditional and advanced, and go with the "clearly better" argument?

Carroll and Green are more proven, and would be safer and smarter investments.   

[chambers]

DeMare Carroll? There's no comparison between a 23 year old Middleton and a 28 year old Carroll.

Okay, so we're truly in the land of make believe. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=carrode01&y2=2015&p2=middlkh01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

It's hard for me to take you seriously when you say there's "no comparison" between two guys who were almost statistically identical last year.  The only difference is that Carroll played on the best team in the East.

Why on earth would we pay Middleton 4 to 6 times what guys like Carroll and Green got?  Does that sound like a good investment?

'The only difference'? C'mon man gimme a break. Middleton is clearly a better overall player than both of those guys given his age and NBA experience, and if you won't admit that, then there's no point discussing it.

So we just ignore the stats, both traditional and advanced, and go with the "clearly better" argument?

How about we ignore their age, experience and on court +/- and their traditional and advanced numbers since the All Star Break?
Let's also just leave the potential factor out  because as good as he's been, Middleton's never getting any better. Having just turned 23 years old his ceiling is ultimately that of DeMare Carroll. Oh and 15 million against the 68 million cap this offseason is the same as 15 million against the 108 million cap in 2017.
Right?

We clearly disagree but at the end of the day the Bucks are probably matching any offers on him anyway so I'm just sprouting false hope.

[Csfan1984]

DeMare Carroll? There's no comparison between a 23 year old Middleton and a 28 year old Carroll.

Okay, so we're truly in the land of make believe. 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=carrode01&y2=2015&p2=middlkh01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

It's hard for me to take you seriously when you say there's "no comparison" between two guys who were almost statistically identical last year.  The only difference is that Carroll played on the best team in the East.

Why on earth would we pay Middleton 4 to 6 times what guys like Carroll and Green got?  Does that sound like a good investment?

'The only difference'? C'mon man gimme a break. Middleton is clearly a better overall player than both of those guys given his age and NBA experience, and if you won't admit that, then there's no point discussing it.

So we just ignore the stats, both traditional and advanced, and go with the "clearly better" argument?

How about we ignore their age, experience and on court +/- and their traditional and advanced numbers since the All Star Break?
Let's also just leave the potential factor out  because as good as he's been, Middleton's never getting any better. Having just turned 23 years old his ceiling is ultimately that of DeMare Carroll. Oh and 15 million against the 68 million cap this offseason is the same as 15 million against the 108 million cap in 2017.
Right?

We clearly disagree but at the end of the day the Bucks are probably matching any offers on him anyway so I'm just sprouting false hope.

I  hear that side of the argument on age but just look at AB today. We can't keep hoping/assuming guys will get better as they get older. Can we flat out dismiss Roy for saying pay a guy once he proves himself? I think not, given C's blow out loss today. C's at this point need to save all the $ for the elite players. Once they have top 2 guys fill in rest of the roster.

[Roy H.]

How about we ignore their age, experience and on court +/- and their traditional and advanced numbers since the All Star Break?
Let's also just leave the potential factor out  because as good as he's been, Middleton's never getting any better. Having just turned 23 years old his ceiling is ultimately that of DeMare Carroll. Oh and 15 million against the 68 million cap this offseason is the same as 15 million against the 108 million cap in 2017.
Right?

We clearly disagree but at the end of the day the Bucks are probably matching any offers on him anyway so I'm just sprouting false hope.

Age and experience cut both ways.  There's less of a track record to judge Middleton on.  He was a horrid defender last year.  Was that poor coaching?  Inexperience?  Or simply a guy who is now showing more effort because it's a contract year? 

It's a fallacy to think that all young guys improve.  Many of them stagnate, and sometimes they regress. 

I'd much rather pay a proven guy like DeMarre Carroll or Danny Green than I would massively overpay Khris Middleton.  If you've got three guys with similar skill sets, it doesn't make sense to pay one of them much, much more than the others due to potential shown over half a season.

And, for the record, stats since the all-star break:

Carroll:  13.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 39.0% 3PT%, .626 TS% in 30.6 minutes
Middleton:  16.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 38.7% 3PT%, .550 TS% in 35.4 minutes

When you account for per-minute production and USG%, Carroll was right there with Middleton, if not a little better. 

Middleton has had a fantastic season, but smart teams don't overpay based upon potential.  Rather, you pay stars, and adopt a "moneyball" approach with the role players. 

EDIT:  And Middleton was awesome in RPM this year, but he ranked 298th last year.  Which one is the real guy, you know?

[PhoSita]

RPM seems like the kind of stat that is going to vary wildly from year to year, especially for role players, whose success is very context dependent.

[LooseCannon]

maybe Middleton and one max guy is enough to make the team a contender.

Sometimes it would be nice to live in Candyland like this, how are the cotton candy trees?

I don't believe Stevens envisions a team with 1-2 or 3 stars surrounded by role players who's job it is to facilitate the stars.
I believe he incisions a team of equals who win together.
So far it has worked.
The next step is to upgrade the talent across the board.
Ideally 6 or 7 "3rd best" players, each of which would be at least good defenders and willing passers. each with an above average talent, be it scoring, distributing, 3pt shooting, rim protection, perimeter d...
KM is an ideal pick up in this system, add an athletic shot blocker (who has an additional above average skill and a little more of fence and Stevens would have the team he's looking to build.

I hope not, because such a team maxes out in the second round. Teams stacked with third options, but no stars, don't win titles.

It's pretty difficult to say where a team as young as ours currently maxes out. Adding a guy like Middleton at the max doesn't cap our ceiling as a team because our young players could improve and become stars (or improve to the point they should be traded for stars)

I don't think that any of our guys has superstar potential. The premise was that Stevens wants a team full of third options. That's a recipe for mediocrity.

Stars win. Teams full of role players don't. NBA history is pretty clear on this point. Similarly, spending large chunks of your cap on role players, without stars being in place, is a great way to ensure you never reach the next level.

I just don't understand the "the cap is going up, so let's massively overpay role players" argument.  You spend money on stars, period. Paying $15+ million to a guy who is worth $6 to $8 million is lunacy.

What I can see the Celtics doing is going after players who would be considered star-caliber players according to advanced metrics, but who will be under-appreciated by Charles Barkley type anti-statheads unless they actually win a title.  (And not even then.  Some people still don't think Kawhi Leonard is a max contract guy who is good enough for the Spurs to build around post-Duncan.)

Channing Frye was an all-stat caliber player using those same advanced metrics. How'd that work out for Orlando?

Guys need to show more than half a season of good-but-not-great play to earn a max contract.

Frye's an OK player who was arguably misused by a bad coach in Orlando.  People who weigh raw points and rebounds too heavily will underrate him.

Brandan Wright is probably a better example for an advanced metrics all-star.

My hope is that Ainge can find the next Paul Millsap.  I remember arguing that Millsap was significantly better than Al Jefferson on the Jazz when they were about to become free agents.

[LooseCannon]

I like Middleton, but to me it's just too soon to give him a huge contract.  I understand that you're not going to be able to sign Middleton for what he's worth, because he's a restricted free agent.  However, I'd rather commit resources toward somebody else than overplay based on the potential of one good stretch of 40 games.

Would you make a similar argument if Rudy Gobert were a free agent this summer and you thought there was a chance that his team might not match a max offer sheet?

[tazzmaniac]

How about we ignore their age, experience and on court +/- and their traditional and advanced numbers since the All Star Break?
Let's also just leave the potential factor out  because as good as he's been, Middleton's never getting any better. Having just turned 23 years old his ceiling is ultimately that of DeMare Carroll. Oh and 15 million against the 68 million cap this offseason is the same as 15 million against the 108 million cap in 2017.
Right?

We clearly disagree but at the end of the day the Bucks are probably matching any offers on him anyway so I'm just sprouting false hope.

Age and experience cut both ways.  There's less of a track record to judge Middleton on.  He was a horrid defender last year.  Was that poor coaching?  Inexperience?  Or simply a guy who is now showing more effort because it's a contract year? 

It's a fallacy to think that all young guys improve.  Many of them stagnate, and sometimes they regress. 

I'd much rather pay a proven guy like DeMarre Carroll or Danny Green than I would massively overpay Khris Middleton.  If you've got three guys with similar skill sets, it doesn't make sense to pay one of them much, much more than the others due to potential shown over half a season.

And, for the record, stats since the all-star break:

Carroll:  13.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 39.0% 3PT%, .626 TS% in 30.6 minutes
Middleton:  16.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 38.7% 3PT%, .550 TS% in 35.4 minutes

When you account for per-minute production and USG%, Carroll was right there with Middleton, if not a little better. 

Middleton has had a fantastic season, but smart teams don't overpay based upon potential.  Rather, you pay stars, and adopt a "moneyball" approach with the role players. 

EDIT:  And Middleton was awesome in RPM this year, but he ranked 298th last year.  Which one is the real guy, you know?

So what are you going to do in a year when the minimum team salary jumps to 80mil+ and there is no elite talent available?  I certainly don't want Ainge overpaying to keep Sully. 

I don't see how Carroll is more proven than Middleton.  Carroll's had two good season with the Hawks but his 1st three seasons were nothing to write home about.  Green has had the advantage of playing on the Spurs.  How much are you willing to pay to get Green or Carroll? 

[Roy H.]

I like Middleton, but to me it's just too soon to give him a huge contract.  I understand that you're not going to be able to sign Middleton for what he's worth, because he's a restricted free agent.  However, I'd rather commit resources toward somebody else than overplay based on the potential of one good stretch of 40 games.

Would you make a similar argument if Rudy Gobert were a free agent this summer and you thought there was a chance that his team might not match a max offer sheet?

No idea.  Are there guys who will give you the same production for 1/3 of the cost?

[Roy H.]

So what are you going to do in a year when the minimum team salary jumps to 80mil+ and there is no elite talent available?

I think people largely misunderstand the minimum team salary.  If you don't meet the minimum, you simply pay a penalty equal to the amount you're under the minimum.  It's better to write a check for one year than it is to significantly overpay.