Author Topic: Is Khris Middleton the Celtics most likely attainable free agent this o/season?  (Read 43663 times)

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Offline Snakehead

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I think, of the top level Free Agents, yes.

I think Bucks could let him walk for a big offer just because they have a couple young wings and might want to get a little worse to get some more picks and try to build around Giannis and Parker.

I like him.  When we get to max money I do get apprehensive but he has been very good this year and probably will be a perfect fit in Stevens system.  So I am pretty bought in on him.

I think Love is likely a guy that we could get, but that's if he leaves Cleveland. I do not think he will.  Not that there isn't a chance, but if they at least get to the Finals (which I think they will) it will be hard to leave.  Even if the fit hasn't been great in Cleveland.  I think it would be perfect with the Celtics.  He could be doing the kind of role Olynyk has for 10 more minutes a game and be putting up strong numbers. 

I think it would be a lot more fun for him to play for us and I think he would be back in the top players in the league discussion.  Depending on how much that would mean to him... well we will have to see.

He will also have other choices and for all I know he really just wants to play in LA.  We will have to see.  I just think the fit is very strong between Love and the Celtics.

Sorry to make a Kevin Love post.  I do like Middleton a lot I just think he should be below a couple priorities (trying to trade for Cousins, and signing Love).
« Last Edit: April 18, 2015, 09:22:55 PM by Snakehead »
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Offline max215

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I think he could definitely be a nice fit for us and wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucks let him go. I think Jimmy Butler should probably be a higher priority, but I dont think there's any chance the Bulls let him go.
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Offline byennie

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So in 2016 off season with Middleton at max, IT, AB, Smart, KO, Young and a bunch of sophomores you can sign just one max guy. (Not even 2 max under 6 year guys)

Now without Middleton you are looking at 59 million under and capable of signing 2 prime Max players. With Middleton at 11 million (not the max) you can get a max prime player and a under 6 year max player.


So very different scenario financially if you Max Middleton verse you pay him what he is worth 11 million.

Well of course we'd *rather* pay him 11 million. 10 million would be even better =).

I appreciate the long-term thinking, but I think saving up for 2 max guys after the salary jump is fool's gold. What are the chances of luring 2 max free agents to Boston in the same year over every other team with money? I'd say close to zero. On the other hand, we could have Middleton on the roster, be one of the top teams in the east, still have money for a max guy, and even after we sign him, enough money to sign another good player. We don't need to bank on $50M of cap room, especially in a year when 20 other teams will have it too.

Offline chambers

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KO thing aside, the point is the team has to try at securing Middleton for less than max. At max I say you have to pass because hurts your shot financially later.

Would you just worry about cap space later and max Middleton?

Because even if you sign him at 15 million, by 2017-18 he's taking up less than 14% of the cap and he's got two years remaining.

Remember we can ship Wallace's 10 million out with a first round pick as well if we really want cap room for 2 more max players.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
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Offline Csfan1984

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So in 2016 off season with Middleton at max, IT, AB, Smart, KO, Young and a bunch of sophomores you can sign just one max guy. (Not even 2 max under 6 year guys)

Now without Middleton you are looking at 59 million under and capable of signing 2 prime Max players. With Middleton at 11 million (not the max) you can get a max prime player and a under 6 year max player.


So very different scenario financially if you Max Middleton verse you pay him what he is worth 11 million.

Well of course we'd *rather* pay him 11 million. 10 million would be even better =).

I appreciate the long-term thinking, but I think saving up for 2 max guys after the salary jump is fool's gold. What are the chances of luring 2 max free agents to Boston in the same year over every other team with money? I'd say close to zero. On the other hand, we could have Middleton on the roster, be one of the top teams in the east, still have money for a max guy, and even after we sign him, enough money to sign another good player. We don't need to bank on $50M of cap room, especially in a year when 20 other teams will have it too.
Well cap for everyone is impossible to predict for over 2 years. I know there are a lot of teams that won't be able to get 2 max guys because there are a few already projected into the 70 million dollar range. I also know as of right now C's are the only playoff team with its core signed on another year that can afford a max player. That means that other playoff/decent teams cap situation will change for the better but lose talent or for the worse but keep their guys. C's need to keep flexibility and keep adding talent to close the gap between them, a bottom playoff team, and to the current contenders.

Offline Csfan1984

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KO thing aside, the point is the team has to try at securing Middleton for less than max. At max I say you have to pass because hurts your shot financially later.

Would you just worry about cap space later and max Middleton?

Because even if you sign him at 15 million, by 2017-18 he's taking up less than 14% of the cap and he's got two years remaining.

Remember we can ship Wallace's 10 million out with a first round pick as well if we really want cap room for 2 more max players.
Max players salary rises too. Can't just think he is just 14% because max guys make up 25 to 35% and then you still have the rest of the roster.

Offline chambers

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That's the point though.
If you can get a third fiddle like Middleton who takes up only 15% of your total cap (or 16 million),
you're going to have 93 million dollars to sign whoever you want.

Idea being that Middleton would command 20 million+ if he could or 20%+ of the cap. If you can get him for 15% then you have to think long and hard given his age, stats and projections with more usage.

Look at Parsons and Hayward. Middleton has arguably had a better year than either of these guys, particularly post All Star break. More efficient, better from the 3 point range, better from FT line, better defender and just turned 23 years old.

Signing a kid like this
a) not going to hamstring our finances
b) could be an incredibly huge bargain ala Rondo's first big contract
c) gives us a legitimate go to guy in the starting line up that can also be a top 3 player on a championship team (potentially) for only 15% of the cap.

"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline Csfan1984

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That's the point though.
If you can get a third fiddle like Middleton who takes up only 15% of your total cap (or 16 million),
you're going to have 93 million dollars to sign whoever you want.

Idea being that Middleton would command 20 million+ if he could or 20%+ of the cap. If you can get him for 15% then you have to think long and hard given his age, stats and projections with more usage.

Look at Parsons and Hayward. Middleton has arguably had a better year than either of these guys, particularly post All Star break. More efficient, better from the 3 point range, better from FT line, better defender and just turned 23 years old.

Signing a kid like this
a) not going to hamstring our finances
b) could be an incredibly huge bargain ala Rondo's first big contract
c) gives us a legitimate go to guy in the starting line up that can also be a top 3 player on a championship team (potentially) for only 15% of the cap.
I take it you only want one max guy in 2016 then because I went over the numbers in a post on previous page. Read them if you haven't it shows team salary, max salaries, and cap room with and without Middleton. I want 2 max guys as I believe the roster needs two elite stars. Middleton is only a 3rd option guy. AB is a 4th option. Smart is just a viable defender. Zeller may or may not be here. IT and Turner are 6 men kind of guys.

Offline Csfan1984

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Maybe I'm over thinking the cap space and stars route. Let's see how Cavs match-up. If we get torched this series than think 2 max guys needed. If two games are close and one is a C's win then maybe Middleton and one max guy is enough to make the team a contender.

Offline chambers

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Maybe I'm over thinking the cap space and stars route. Let's see how Cavs match-up. If we get torched this series than think 2 max guys needed. If two games are close and one is a C's win then maybe Middleton and one max guy is enough to make the team a contender.

I agree we need 2 All Stars at a minimum. Middleton's production is close to All Star level and he's 23 years old. I didn't mention earlier that I agree with you I doubt we'd want to pay Middleton the max slot, but just something high enough that the Bucks won't match, say up to 16/17 million x 4 years.

I read your post on cap room and it's good. Keep in mind that guys like Bradley probably part of deals with that salary going out in order to sign one or two max players. This team isn't just keeping everyone and just adding max guys.

Contracts like Bradley, Thomas are designed to give teams who consider trading with us a value proposition who need salary coming back in that isn't complete dead weight with the picks we send them.
Ainge probably looks to move Bradley in any trade that acquires a star. The final year of his contract will be something like 8% of the cap, which would be pretty appealing to other GM's with a need for defense/3 point shooting/locker room culture in a rebuild.

But yeah I agree with you on the max slot. I just hope we consider Middleton as someone who could get that max slot one day and signing him to something solid now could be very valuable, and is never going to be overly detrimental.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2015, 02:55:41 AM by chambers »
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline Irish Stew

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Are we really going to sign two max free agents in the same offseason a year or two from now? Seems like a bit of a reach to me. Why don't we try to improve our win total by signing good players like Middleton to slightly above market contracts that will be well below market in two years? Either the player himself is a valuable asset if he is here for the length of the deal or his contract is a valuable asset that can be used as part of an offer for a disgruntled superstar. Seems like a win-win situation. Because the total NBA cap will increase by over 50% in about two years but the total NBA talent pool will be about the same, $1 today will get you what it will take about $1.50 to get you in two years. Slightly overpaying for good players now makes long term sense to me. 

Offline Celtics4ever

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maybe Middleton and one max guy is enough to make the team a contender.

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Offline LooseCannon

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I agree we need 2 All Stars at a minimum. Middleton's production is close to All Star level and he's 23 years old. I didn't mention earlier that I agree with you I doubt we'd want to pay Middleton the max slot, but just something high enough that the Bucks won't match, say up to 16/17 million x 4 years.

Using he salary cap projection of $66.3 million, the max contract that the Celtics can offer Middleton is four years starting at $16.575m and totaling $70.8 million, for an average salary of $17.7 million.  The Bucks can offer a five year deal with slightly larger raises.

It'd be reasonable to put him on the same tier as Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons, but his skill set seems like a better fit for the Celtics under Stevens than those guys.  If Hayward/Parsons were free agents this summer and you'd have no problem tossing a max offer at them, you probably should be ok with giving the same to Middleton.
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Offline arctic 3.0

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maybe Middleton and one max guy is enough to make the team a contender.

Sometimes it would be nice to live in Candyland like this, how are the cotton candy trees?
I don't believe Stevens envisions a team with 1-2 or 3 stars surrounded by role players who's job it is to facilitate the stars.
I believe he incisions a team of equals who win together.
So far it has worked.
The next step is to upgrade the talent across the board.
Ideally 6 or 7 "3rd best" players, each of which would be at least good defenders and willing passers. each with an above average talent, be it scoring, distributing, 3pt shooting, rim protection, perimeter d...
KM is an ideal pick up in this system, add an athletic shot blocker (who has an additional above average skill and a little more of fence and Stevens would have the team he's looking to build.


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maybe Middleton and one max guy is enough to make the team a contender.

Sometimes it would be nice to live in Candyland like this, how are the cotton candy trees?
I don't believe Stevens envisions a team with 1-2 or 3 stars surrounded by role players who's job it is to facilitate the stars.
I believe he incisions a team of equals who win together.
So far it has worked.
The next step is to upgrade the talent across the board.
Ideally 6 or 7 "3rd best" players, each of which would be at least good defenders and willing passers. each with an above average talent, be it scoring, distributing, 3pt shooting, rim protection, perimeter d...
KM is an ideal pick up in this system, add an athletic shot blocker (who has an additional above average skill and a little more of fence and Stevens would have the team he's looking to build.

I hope not, because such a team maxes out in the second round. Teams stacked with third options, but no stars, don't win titles.


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