Is Khris Middleton the Celtics most likely attainable free agent this o/season?

[marlon.oddo]

I certainly hope that Middleton is not the most attainable free agent.

I'm hoping and praying that we prioritize the 4s as Love, Monroe and Faried (not a free agent but I think a good fit).  I hope we make Jimmy Butler and Kawhi max offers.

I don't know much about Middleton.  Maybe he's a guy who is just having a contract year.  I hope we draft either draft Stanley Robinson or sign Kawhi before going to Middleton or another starting caliber 3.

[spikelovetheCelts]

I certainly hope that Middleton is not the most attainable free agent.

I'm hoping and praying that we prioritize the 4s as Love, Monroe and Faried (not a free agent but I think a good fit).  I hope we make Jimmy Butler and Kawhi max offers.

I don't know much about Middleton.  Maybe he's a guy who is just having a contract year.  I hope we draft either draft Stanley Robinson or sign Kawhi before going to Middleton or another starting caliber 3.

Kawhli, Butler and Green will get offered the Max by their teams. Kidd will have a fit if Middleton leaves so I don't see that hapenning.  Monroe to me is not a fit he is not a rim protector. I hope we can somehow get Jordan but I doubt we can match LA. He wants to do better than His Bro in Portland. 

Faried is the best Choice. We have Rondo trade exemption and picks to give Denver. They may go all in with a rebuild since they are Tanking this year. Lopez may leave the Nets for us if we get another big name too. Going to be a fun summer of hope.

[slamtheking]

I love the kid, but Milwaukee will match any reasonable offer. We could probably get him for a max offer, but I have no interest in that.

have to agree with this assessment.  Danny doesn't get him without grossly overpaying and if he does, Middleton's contract won't help in the effort to bring in other good FA's later on.   

TBH, I think our first pick is likely to be one of the prized SFs in this draft.

[indeedproceed]

I certainly hope that Middleton is not the most attainable free agent.

I'm hoping and praying that we prioritize the 4s as Love, Monroe and Faried (not a free agent but I think a good fit).  I hope we make Jimmy Butler and Kawhi max offers.

I don't know much about Middleton.  Maybe he's a guy who is just having a contract year.  I hope we draft either draft Stanley Robinson or sign Kawhi before going to Middleton or another starting caliber 3.

Kawhli, Butler and Green will get offered the Max by their teams. Kidd will have a fit if Middleton leaves so I don't see that hapenning.  Monroe to me is not a fit he is not a rim protector. I hope we can somehow get Jordan but I doubt we can match LA. He wants to do better than His Bro in Portland. 

Faried is the best Choice. We have Rondo trade exemption and picks to give Denver. They may go all in with a rebuild since they are Tanking this year. Lopez may leave the Nets for us if we get another big name too. Going to be a fun summer of hope.

To that I say, Yuck.

If the cap escalates as much as people project it to, Middleton even at a max offer would take up less than 18% of the salary cap within 2 years. To put that in context, 18% of the current cap is roughly $11 million dollars per year, or about the same contract DeAndre Jordan got off his rookie deal, or about the same contract that Perkins got, relatively speaking.

I'm not saying the C's should do it, but I won't at all be surprised if someone does.

[marlon.oddo]

spikelovetheCelts-

I don't necessarily disagree with your reply to my post.  To clarify, the context was prioritizing the players in positions we need.  I don't think we will make those offers to most of the players I mentioned.  I think Leonard, Aldridge and Butler are locks to stay with their current teams. 

I think there's a chance Love could leave.  I place DeAndre Jordan in the Amare Stoudemire type of free agent.  He's a player whose value is massively improved by the players around him.  For the Clippers, he doesn't have to score much and he gives them exactly what they need.  On most other teams, are you going to pay him $15-20 million per and get 10-12 PPG?

Another poster had a good comment that we have a lot of 2nd tier players already but we really need 1 or 2 top tier players to go with what we have.  And if Middleton is a RFA, I think his chances of leaving Milwaukee are diminished.

[Roy H.]

18% of the current cap is roughly $11 million dollars per year, or about the same contract DeAndre Jordan got off his rookie deal, or about the same contract that Perkins got, relatively speaking.

Well, Perk's contract (with a resume that included being the starting center on a championship team) was 4 years, $34 million.  Plus, of course, that didn't exactly work out particularly well, and teams are always going to pay for size.

J.J. Redick -- a player who brings a lot of the same things as Middleton on offense -- makes $6.3 million per year.  Tony Allen -- who brings everything that Middleton brings defensively -- makes $4.5 million.

How can anybody be comfortable paying Middleton -- a guy who is a very good player, but who has only shown it for one season -- 2.5 to 4 times what those guys make?

[SHAQATTACK]

That's not much to look forward to........

[chambers]

18% of the current cap is roughly $11 million dollars per year, or about the same contract DeAndre Jordan got off his rookie deal, or about the same contract that Perkins got, relatively speaking.

Well, Perk's contract (with a resume that included being the starting center on a championship team) was 4 years, $34 million.  Plus, of course, that didn't exactly work out particularly well, and teams are always going to pay for size.

J.J. Redick -- a player who brings a lot of the same things as Middleton on offense -- makes $6.3 million per year.  Tony Allen -- who brings everything that Middleton brings defensively -- makes $4.5 million.

How can anybody be comfortable paying Middleton -- a guy who is a very good player, but who has only shown it for one season -- 2.5 to 4 times what those guys make?

well let's look at this way...

He's been a top 5 shooter in the NBA for for 150 games now. (almost 2 of his three seasons).
He's top 10 in NBA real +/-....here's the list of those guys...

2014-15 Real Plus-Minus
RK     NAME                 TEAM   GP   MPG ORPM DRP RPM   WAR

1   Stephen Curry, PG   GS   67   32.9   7.06   1.81   8.87   16.24
2   James Harden, SG   HOU   68   36.7   7.57   0.90   8.47   17.20
3   LeBron James, SF   CLE   61   36.3   5.71   1.68   7.39   12.99
4   Kawhi Leonard, SF   SA   51   32.0   2.80   4.36   7.16   9.52
5   Russell Wbrook, PG   OKC   55    34.0   7.45   -0.61   6.84   11.00
6   Anthony Davis, PF   NO   56   36.0   3.06   3.66   6.72   11.04
7   Chris Paul, PG   LAC   71   35.1   6.13   0.48   6.61   13.85
8   Khris Middleton, SG   MIL   67   29.6   2.45   3.93   6.38   10.46
9   DeMarcus Cousins, C   SAC   53   33.7   1.27   4.62   5.89   9.22
10   Draymond Green, SF   GS   69   31.9   1.20   4.64   5.84   11.69
11   Kyle Korver, SG   ATL   65   32.7   4.48   0.85   5.33   9.88
12   John Wall, PG   WSH   70   35.7   3.12   1.93   5.05   11.27

Other points...
1) Because it's 18% of the cap to pay him a max deal and his progression has been awesome.
2) He has similar production to Reddick on the offensive end but he's a better shooter, better defender and far more efficient.
3) He's 23 years old. Tony Allen is 33 and Reddick is 30.
4) The Bucks also have Giannis and Parker at the wing/forward position. Middleton is more of a SF/SG but they may not want the log jam of Parker/Middle at the 3.
5) Kwahi Leonard is a pretty good comparison for Middleton. They are the same age, and although Kwahi's resume is significantly more proven and alluring with his role on a championship team and finals MVP etc...his stats are very similar to Middleton's in their second years.
Both played roughly 29 minutes a game and are at 13 points, 2 assists, on 47% shooting while Leonard was at 6.2 rebounds to Middleton's 4.5 rebounds (understandable as more of a perimeter player), whilst Middleton's three point shooting is better at 43% vs 38% (they both take 3.1 attempts a game). Middleton is also the better free throw shooter by 5% (Kwahi 80% vs Middleton 85%).

Both are lock down 1v1 defenders and can guard the 2,3 and occasionally the 4, I'd say Kwahi is the superior team/off ball defender but again, Middleton is no slouch.

Now obviously Leonard achieved the above whilst winning a championship, and the Bucks are battling for a playoff spot between 4 and 7 in a weak East.

But the numbers don't lie and Middleton has got game.

When thinking about the evolving game in the NBA with three point shooting and the ability to defend multiple positions as must haves, he is a guy who could fit in very well with our system, particularly if you can get him for less than a max contract.

I am in the pool of fans who would like to sign bonafied, certified All Star caliber players to get us to Banner 18, but we have to do our diligence and look into players with his potential and I think we should expect Ainge to have a serious think about a guy like this considering how quickly he's matured and his skillset.

A 23 year old with the offensive production of JJ Reddick and the defensive production (or getting there) of Tony Allen who can shoot the 3 pointer at 43% is arguably worth a max contract if you count in potential progression.

I do understand the cap implications if he doesn't work out,  but at 18% of the cap we are looking at a guy to hopefully be a 2nd or 3rd option on a championship team one day- we also have a gaping hole at SF with Crowder as a free agent and no one to step in other than Turner or James Young.

[jpotter33]

18% of the current cap is roughly $11 million dollars per year, or about the same contract DeAndre Jordan got off his rookie deal, or about the same contract that Perkins got, relatively speaking.

Well, Perk's contract (with a resume that included being the starting center on a championship team) was 4 years, $34 million.  Plus, of course, that didn't exactly work out particularly well, and teams are always going to pay for size.

J.J. Redick -- a player who brings a lot of the same things as Middleton on offense -- makes $6.3 million per year.  Tony Allen -- who brings everything that Middleton brings defensively -- makes $4.5 million.

How can anybody be comfortable paying Middleton -- a guy who is a very good player, but who has only shown it for one season -- 2.5 to 4 times what those guys make?

So what you're saying is that he brings $6.3 M per year in offense and $4.5 M per year on defense; thus, logically, we should offer him a $10.8 M per year and not a penny more!  jk jk

Seriously, though, this seems to have Lance Stephenson written all over it. I know they're a little bit different circumstances, but this very well could end up being contract year related. I'd almost rather stick with Jae, who will be much, much cheaper, if we can't make a better splash than that.

[Roy H.]

well let's look at this way...

He's been a top 5 shooter in the NBA for for 150 games now. (almost 2 of his three seasons).
He's top 10 in NBA real +/-....here's the list of those guys...

2014-15 Real Plus-Minus
RK     NAME                 TEAM   GP   MPG ORPM DRP RPM   WAR

1   Stephen Curry, PG   GS   67   32.9   7.06   1.81   8.87   16.24
2   James Harden, SG   HOU   68   36.7   7.57   0.90   8.47   17.20
3   LeBron James, SF   CLE   61   36.3   5.71   1.68   7.39   12.99
4   Kawhi Leonard, SF   SA   51   32.0   2.80   4.36   7.16   9.52
5   Russell Wbrook, PG   OKC   55    34.0   7.45   -0.61   6.84   11.00
6   Anthony Davis, PF   NO   56   36.0   3.06   3.66   6.72   11.04
7   Chris Paul, PG   LAC   71   35.1   6.13   0.48   6.61   13.85
8   Khris Middleton, SG   MIL   67   29.6   2.45   3.93   6.38   10.46
9   DeMarcus Cousins, C   SAC   53   33.7   1.27   4.62   5.89   9.22
10   Draymond Green, SF   GS   69   31.9   1.20   4.64   5.84   11.69
11   Kyle Korver, SG   ATL   65   32.7   4.48   0.85   5.33   9.88
12   John Wall, PG   WSH   70   35.7   3.12   1.93   5.05   11.27

Here are some notables from last year:

3.  Andre Iguodala
7. Nick Collison
11. Channing Frye
16. Amir Johnson
18. Vince Carter

All are useful players, but not necessarily guys you'd want to break the bank for.

He has similar production to Reddick on the offensive end but he's ... far more efficient.

I think you misread your stats on this one.  J.J. beats Middleton handily in terms of efficiency this year.  Both are very good, but J.J. puts up 42.8% 3PT% / .574 eFG% / .614 TS%, while Middleton is at 43.3% 3PT% / .537 eFG% / .571 TS%.

Again, I love Middleton as a player, but so far he's a one year wonder.  He shot well last year, but overall was a net-negative.  Now, a lot of that is probably from being misused; he was slotted primarily as a bench PF last year, and this season he's a starting SG, where he's thrived.  However, even if you look at things in terms of "18% of the cap", people are suggesting that we pay Middleton like an elite asset.  I think that's premature, and the consequences of paying 18% of your cap to a guy who badly regresses would set our franchise back.

[indeedproceed]

18% of the current cap is roughly $11 million dollars per year, or about the same contract DeAndre Jordan got off his rookie deal, or about the same contract that Perkins got, relatively speaking.

Well, Perk's contract (with a resume that included being the starting center on a championship team) was 4 years, $34 million.  Plus, of course, that didn't exactly work out particularly well, and teams are always going to pay for size.

J.J. Redick -- a player who brings a lot of the same things as Middleton on offense -- makes $6.3 million per year.  Tony Allen -- who brings everything that Middleton brings defensively -- makes $4.5 million.

How can anybody be comfortable paying Middleton -- a guy who is a very good player, but who has only shown it for one season -- 2.5 to 4 times what those guys make?

So what you're saying is that he brings $6.3 M per year in offense and $4.5 M per year on defense; thus, logically, we should offer him a $10.8 M per year and not a penny more!  jk jk

Seriously, though, this seems to have Lance Stephenson written all over it. I know they're a little bit different circumstances, but this very well could end up being contract year related. I'd almost rather stick with Jae, who will be much, much cheaper, if we can't make a better splash than that.

To be clear, I'm not saying its a bad plan to not offer the guy max money, or close to it. I'm just saying that if a team does, I get why, and its a ballsy play that isn't entirely unappealing.

[Roy H.]

18% of the current cap is roughly $11 million dollars per year, or about the same contract DeAndre Jordan got off his rookie deal, or about the same contract that Perkins got, relatively speaking.

Well, Perk's contract (with a resume that included being the starting center on a championship team) was 4 years, $34 million.  Plus, of course, that didn't exactly work out particularly well, and teams are always going to pay for size.

J.J. Redick -- a player who brings a lot of the same things as Middleton on offense -- makes $6.3 million per year.  Tony Allen -- who brings everything that Middleton brings defensively -- makes $4.5 million.

How can anybody be comfortable paying Middleton -- a guy who is a very good player, but who has only shown it for one season -- 2.5 to 4 times what those guys make?

So what you're saying is that he brings $6.3 M per year in offense and $4.5 M per year on defense; thus, logically, we should offer him a $10.8 M per year and not a penny more!  jk jk

Seriously, though, this seems to have Lance Stephenson written all over it. I know they're a little bit different circumstances, but this very well could end up being contract year related. I'd almost rather stick with Jae, who will be much, much cheaper, if we can't make a better splash than that.

To be clear, I'm not saying its a bad plan to not offer the guy max money, or close to it. I'm just saying that if a team does, I get why, and its a ballsy play that isn't entirely unappealing.

Credit to you for being the first person on the blog to brainstorm the idea, at least that I saw.  I consider you to be the leader of this crazy train.

I think overpaying guys like Middleton is what gets GMs fired.  At the same time, if I was the Cavs, I'd work like heck to sell the Bucks on Brendan Haywood's non-guaranteed contract + future draft pick for Middleton on a max contract.  Middleton would be awesome next to Lebron (DKC plug aside), and the Cavs are the type of team that won't have cap space (unless Love and/or Lebron bolts).  There's no real downside to overpaying Middleton other than the luxury tax, and Dan Gilbert has no problem with paying the tax.

[byennie]

The salary cap makes this whole thing an interesting chess game. We know we're going to have a ton of cap space in a couple of summers. The question is, will we be able to use it?

I think you can at least make an argument for "overspending" on 2 very good players this summer, so that we can win as many games as possible next year and position ourselves as a destination. Let's say we break the bank for Middleton and Draymond Green.

For the sake of argument, we get Middleton in a S&T for Wallace (don't laugh - he's an expiring now), Turner (expiring) and a couple of 1sts. 5 years, $65, slightly less than max for getting him the 5th year. For Green, we throw the max at him - partly because Golden State can't match and so we don't have to give up any player assets to get him.

We'd have about enough room left to sign our draft pick, and maybe resign Crowder.

How many games does this team win, if you're adding a full season with Thomas, Middleton and Green?

Our 10-man rotation would be:
Smart / Bradley / Thomas / Middleton / Crowder / Green / Sullinger / Olynyk / Zeller / 1st rounder(s)

That team is deeeeep, young, and good. Could we win 50 games, and still have $30M to spend next summer on top of our boatload of picks?

[Roy H.]

The salary cap makes this whole thing an interesting chess game. We know we're going to have a ton of cap space in a couple of summers. The question is, will we be able to use it?

I think you can at least make an argument for "overspending" on 2 very good players this summer, so that we can win as many games as possible next year and position ourselves as a destination. Let's say we break the bank for Middleton and Draymond Green.

For the sake of argument, we get Middleton in a S&T for Wallace (don't laugh - he's an expiring now), Turner (expiring) and a couple of 1sts. 5 years, $65, slightly less than max for getting him the 5th year. For Green, we throw the max at him - partly because Golden State can't match and so we don't have to give up any player assets to get him.

We'd have about enough room left to sign our draft pick, and maybe resign Crowder.

How many games does this team win, if you're adding a full season with Thomas, Middleton and Green?

Our 10-man rotation would be:
Smart / Bradley / Thomas / Middleton / Crowder / Green / Sullinger / Olynyk / Zeller / 1st rounder(s)

That team is deeeeep, young, and good. Could we win 50 games, and still have $30M to spend next summer on top of our boatload of picks?

The new CBA caps S&Ts at four years.

I think that adding Green and Middleton would make us marginally better, but more in the 40 - 45 win range, if there is no regression.

[chambers]

well let's look at this way...

He's been a top 5 shooter in the NBA for for 150 games now. (almost 2 of his three seasons).
He's top 10 in NBA real +/-....here's the list of those guys...

2014-15 Real Plus-Minus
RK     NAME                 TEAM   GP   MPG ORPM DRP RPM   WAR

1   Stephen Curry, PG   GS   67   32.9   7.06   1.81   8.87   16.24
2   James Harden, SG   HOU   68   36.7   7.57   0.90   8.47   17.20
3   LeBron James, SF   CLE   61   36.3   5.71   1.68   7.39   12.99
4   Kawhi Leonard, SF   SA   51   32.0   2.80   4.36   7.16   9.52
5   Russell Wbrook, PG   OKC   55    34.0   7.45   -0.61   6.84   11.00
6   Anthony Davis, PF   NO   56   36.0   3.06   3.66   6.72   11.04
7   Chris Paul, PG   LAC   71   35.1   6.13   0.48   6.61   13.85
8   Khris Middleton, SG   MIL   67   29.6   2.45   3.93   6.38   10.46
9   DeMarcus Cousins, C   SAC   53   33.7   1.27   4.62   5.89   9.22
10   Draymond Green, SF   GS   69   31.9   1.20   4.64   5.84   11.69
11   Kyle Korver, SG   ATL   65   32.7   4.48   0.85   5.33   9.88
12   John Wall, PG   WSH   70   35.7   3.12   1.93   5.05   11.27

Here are some notables from last year:

3.  Andre Iguodala
7. Nick Collison
11. Channing Frye
16. Amir Johnson
18. Vince Carter

All are useful players, but not necessarily guys you'd want to break the bank for.

He has similar production to Reddick on the offensive end but he's ... far more efficient.

I think you misread your stats on this one.  J.J. beats Middleton handily in terms of efficiency this year.  Both are very good, but J.J. puts up 42.8% 3PT% / .574 eFG% / .614 TS%, while Middleton is at 43.3% 3PT% / .537 eFG% / .571 TS%.

Again, I love Middleton as a player, but so far he's a one year wonder.  He shot well last year, but overall was a net-negative.  Now, a lot of that is probably from being misused; he was slotted primarily as a bench PF last year, and this season he's a starting SG, where he's thrived.  However, even if you look at things in terms of "18% of the cap", people are suggesting that we pay Middleton like an elite asset.  I think that's premature, and the consequences of paying 18% of your cap to a guy who badly regresses would set our franchise back.

It's fine to question if he's having a lucky streak but remember that he's been a top 5 shooter in the NBA for over 150 games now. Look at the notables from this year in real plus/minus...

Also, I claimed that Middleton had similar efficiency to Reddick on the offensive end and you posted their numbers...those look pretty similar to me except again, Reddick is 30 and in his 9th season. The remaining majority of their advanced stat line comparisons are in Middleton's favor, and he's in his 3rd season. Middleton is shooting 47% this season and Reddick's highest fg% was 47% in his 9th year.
Higher winshares, higher VORP than Reddick. He's also always had a higher shooting percentage than Reddick than Reddick for the last two years.

We can now talk about his defensive statistical influence where I'm sure you'll agree he's markedly better than Reddick and therefore influencing the real plus/minus score as most of those top players are.

Anyway, we agree he's a solid player but your fear is that we've waited so long for this cap room that giving it away to Middleton (if he were to be a dud) would be unbearably painful...which I completely understand and to be honest, it would somewhat worry me too the way the Avery Bradley contract worries me.

I'm just looking at this kid from an objective point of view and we know that:

-Ainge and Stevens like shooters with size and D- It's the new era NBA and Stevens appears to be one of the great minds structuring with Spoelstra and Popovic (even Rivers) their offense around ball movement and the three point shot over size.

-The rise in the cap means that we may have room for 4 (FOUR) max players in 2017/18.
If Middleton turns out to be an 18 point, 4 rebound, 4 assist version of Jeff Green with better 3 point shooting and moxy then we should be pretty happy to sign him at something like 14 millionx 5 years. The gambling part is probably going the whole way to a maximum deal- but that's the tough decision that Danny has to make.

Like poker, I'm trying to work out the way my fellow card player Mr Ainge would play his hand if he were dealt the Khris Middleton proposals above....