Summer Prediction: Cs sign Biyombo to two year, approx $12mil deal

[hpantazo]

My main point was people were throwing around $10MM amounts of money for a guy whose offense is so bad, you can't start him.

You can't start him, and you can't play him in crunch time or really in any critical part of the game.

[LarBrd33]

Which Players Are the Next Free-Agent Steals?
April 7, 2015
by Zach Lowe

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-groupon-games-which-players-are-the-next-free-agent-steals/

...
I’m leading a movement to relocate the last starving residents of Waiters Island onto the Biyombo Archipelago. Biyombo has earned his punch-line reputation as perhaps the NBA’s least competent offensive player. [Lowe goes on to say why he's worth a shot in FA nonetheless before getting to what he'd cost] ...

Nabbing Biyombo at $3 million or $4 million per season might turn into a bargain, especially after the cap leaps in 2016-17. That kind of salary is already a team-friendly price for a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.

Even the most plugged-in execs are cautious in projecting contracts for this summer, the last one before the biggest cap jump in league history. Teams and agents will negotiate in a weird netherworld between the projected cap for next season, around $68 million, and the potential $90 million cap coming in 2016-17. The league’s average salary, and perhaps the midlevel exception,2 could jump to $7.5 million or so in just two years. Teams want good contracts now, but agents don’t want to sign contracts that will look silly in 2017.

Could you get Biyombo at $4 million? Most people think so, but no one is sure. The Hornets have to tender Biyombo a one-year, $5.2 million qualifying offer to retain matching rights, and executives are nearly unanimous that Biyombo won’t get that kind of money on the open market.

You could probably get him a lot cheaper than what the resident CBlog GMs have deemed his worth, or get similar production from Joel Anthony who's a free agent this summer, made under $4 MM last year, and likely get less going forward.  Biyombo got marginally better after a year of tutelage under Patrick Ewing, but he's dead last in the NBA in assist%, shot under 10% from past 10 feet (how is that even possible?), and turns the ball over at a high rate too (396th best). Overall he has a net negative +/- (Box and Real +/-) because he's an offensive liability and he was a lot worse his first 3 seasons.

Bismack Biyombo (Restricted Free Agent)

I?m leading a movement to relocate the last starving residents of Waiters Island onto the Biyombo Archipelago. Biyombo has earned his punch-line reputation as perhaps the NBA?s least competent offensive player. He has one move: Catch the ball near the rim and dunk.

If he catches the ball too far from the basket, or if a help defender gets in his way, he is helpless:





Look at the floor an instant before Biyombo launches that hopeless hook: Three teammates are wide open beyond the arc, raising their arms, begging for the ball.

This is sadly indicative of what is perhaps Biyombo?s most damaging limitation: He cannot, or will not, pass. He has 19 assists combined over the last two seasons. He has assisted on fewer than 2 percent of Charlotte?s baskets while on the floor in each of those two seasons, putting him in rare historic territory. Being a finisher first is fine, especially for a range-less big man with hops, but even those types need at least basic NBA passes in their bag for moments when help converges.

Mastering the simple kickout dish could also help Biyombo trim his ugly turnover rate, since he wouldn?t stumble into charging calls, traveling violations, and fumbles.

If a team can teach Biyombo to read the floor just a bit better, he could become something in the NBA. He has already improved in small ways. He doesn?t flat-out drop the ball as much as he used to; his hands have softened from granite to limestone. He is an explosive leaper in traffic and faster than almost every center in the league. He sucks in extra defensive attention on his rolls to the rim, opening up shots for teammates dotting the perimeter:



Charlotte sports the league?s saddest rotation of outside shooters, and it?s tempting to imagine how Biyombo might fare for a team that could surround him with more shooting. The Hornets have scored a respectable 102.3 points per 100 possessions when Biyombo shares the floor with Marvin Williams, the only 3-point shooter in Charlotte?s frontcourt rotation, and collapsed whenever Biyombo plays alongside any other big, per NBA.com.

He has hit a career-best 58 percent from the line this season, and he?s a creative screen setter who toggles between laying the wood and darting into the lane before really setting a pick.

Biyombo is a proven rim protector on defense, with the wheels to defend stretchier big men on the perimeter ? a rare combination:



Opponents hit just 45.6 percent of shots at the basket this season with Biyombo nearby, a stingy mark, and that number was even lower last season ? 39.1 percent, the best mark in the league among rotation bigs, per Spor**** data.

Biyombo can get a little out of control defending in space, and he?s never going to have a post game or any sort of range. Opponents are free to play small against the Hornets with Biyombo on the floor, since a wing player can guard him without worrying about Biyombo posting up. That?s a real liability, and one that could become more glaring as smart coaches go small at every chance.

But Biyombo is a force at the basket, and he could develop into a threatening pick-and-roll dunk machine. Nabbing Biyombo at $3 million or $4 million per season might turn into a bargain, especially after the cap leaps in 2016-17. That kind of salary is already a team-friendly price for a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.

Even the most plugged-in execs are cautious in projecting contracts for this summer, the last one before the biggest cap jump in league history. Teams and agents will negotiate in a weird netherworld between the projected cap for next season, around $68 million, and the potential $90 million cap coming in 2016-17. The league?s average salary, and perhaps the midlevel exception,2 could jump to $7.5 million or so in just two years. Teams want good contracts now, but agents don?t want to sign contracts that will look silly in 2017.

Could you get Biyombo at $4 million? Most people think so, but no one is sure. The Hornets have to tender Biyombo a one-year, $5.2 million qualifying offer to retain matching rights, and executives are nearly unanimous that Biyombo won?t get that kind of money on the open market.

So yeah...  Lowe determines that Biyombo is a poor offensive player and a proven rim protector who can guard on the perimeter as well... says he's a force around the basket and could develop into a threatening pick-and-roll dunk machine.   But yeah... beyond dunking, he's limited.  Pretty sure there isn't a single person in this thread disagreeing on that.

[D.o.s.]

bfm, you're cutting and pasting D.o.s. incorrect statements from a different thread.  I've already put him in his place numerous times.  That dude doesn't need a cross-thread hype man.  He's brought up some flawed points that I've already addressed before he even brought up the flawed points.  Give it a rest, Flavor Flav.  I'm trying to move on from Biyombo in this thread.  If you have something of value to add, add it in the Biyombo thread that sspence started.

I fail to see the points in this thread where LB33 has put D.o.s. "in his place numerous times" Am I missing something here?

  Ain't nothing wrong with some banter back and forth.

I will point out, though, that Lowe's assessment of Biyombo:

a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.The Hornets have to tender Biyombo a one-year, $5.2 million qualifying offer to retain matching rights, and executives are nearly unanimous that Biyombo won’t get that kind of money on the open market.

is basically what I said:

Bismack Biyombo is the car that you buy sight unseen and hope to drive once a year after a long period of fixing it up. Even with the salary cap set to explode, he is not worth the high end of a $25-$40 (I assume that is $5-$10 deal. I can get down with $5.)

[LarBrd33]

To be fair, Tyler Zeller is back-up big too... and pretty much our entire starting line-up is made out of back-ups.   We have the capacity to have a pretty strong defensive identity, though.  Smart and Bradley are exceptional defensive guards.   We perform admirably and seem to overachieve with Stevens leadership.   I'd be really interested to see what the team could do with a top-tier rim protector... which is what I see Biyombo as.   We'd absolutely need scoring from somewhere to contend.  Absolutely.   But if you surround a superstar offensive weapon on a team with Biyombo, Smart, Bradley...   you can make noise.   Evidence is the Cavs last night.  They keep losing more well-rounded talent, but they have Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova stepping up HUGE and the team is making things interesting with defensive competence. 

BIyombo is defensively competent.  I still think he can develop into a better offensive player.   My first choice definitely isn't Biyombo this offseason.  But I'd welcome him here if we can't get the bigger names.   Fwiw, I'd welcome Asik here as well... and I get the sense that not everyone here agrees with that.   I'm just saying that if you're someone who WOULD welcome Asik here, but NOT Biyombo, I don't really understand that.  I'd need some help understanding what 28 year old Asik has that 22 year old Biyombo doesn't.  Likewise, if you're someone who is salivating about a future involving Willie Cauley Stein, but hate the idea of Biyombo... I don't understand you.

[D.o.s.]

Wholeheartedly agree with that ^.

I would be comfortable with Biyombo on the team if we could get away with him never having to see the ball on offense.

The difference with Asik, I feel, is that you could throw all of your chips in the basket for Asik + Melo/Love/Durant/Top Flight scoring Talent and compete for an NBA championship tomorrow (you'd need a bench but, as has just been pointed out, our whole team is a bench). Biyombo is still 2-3 years off from being able to play 30+ MPG on a contender.

Of course, I don't think we have the assets to build a championship winning roster right now, so between the two Biyombo has more merit for our likely (IMO) window of contention, while WCS seems to be about the same level of rawness -- and will likely go in a lottery position we won't be able to sniff.

[LarBrd33]

Wholeheartedly agree with that ^.

I would be comfortable with Biyombo on the team if we could get away with him never having to see the ball on offense.

The difference with Asik, I feel, is that you could throw all of your chips in the basket for Asik + Melo/Love/Durant/Top Flight scoring Talent and compete for an NBA championship tomorrow (you'd need a bench but, as has just been pointed out, our whole team is a bench). Biyombo is still 2-3 years off from being able to play 30+ MPG on a contender.

Of course, I don't think we have the assets to build a championship winning roster right now, so between the two Biyombo has more merit for our likely (IMO) window of contention, while WCS seems to be about the same level of rawness -- and will likely go in a lottery position we won't be able to sniff.

Yeah... if Biyombo is the only player we got this summer... that'd be ugly. 

If Boston uses their cap space to bring in Kevin Love (everyone's favorite pipe dream)... I see Love as a focal-point offensive weapon who would be an absolute ideal fit for Steven's offensive system.  Say you had Love... that suddenly makes power forwards Olynyk and Sully expendable.  Here's hoping the team would get a competent two-way upgrade at either Bradley's position or SF.  My go-to trade target in these examples is DeMar Derozan.  He's good, but not great.  Fringe star.  Ok defender who can provide some balanced scoring  Theoretically he's attainable.  Merely using him as an example.   Say you added a Derozan-esque scoring punch to the roster and had a team of PG - Bradley, SG - Smart, SF - Derozan, PF - Love... Thomas providing scoring punch off the bench...   Wouldn't you want an elite defender manning the middle?  How important is it for that player to be a two-way guy?    This forum has penciled in Asik's name for the past 3 seasons.   Within the last few months, they've penciled in WCS, but getting WCS is going to cost you significant assets. 

Why not Biyombo?

Anyways... so pumped for this offseason.   Literally anything can happen and it's not going to surprise me.

[LooseCannon]

I'd need some help understanding what 28 year old Asik has that 22 year old Biyombo doesn't. 

Biyombo isn't bad, but Asik is an elite rebounder (I feel pretty comfortable calling him a top five rebounder in the NBA).  Asik is a significantly better passer.  Asik is a clear starter in the league, albeit one who probably can't handle playing more than 30 minutes per game.  I also feel that the Celtics need a steady veteran and want the Celtics to upgrade the frontcourt with an above-average starter in the 27-30 age range who can compensate for what I thought was a clear lack of poise that the team demonstrated in multiple third quarters against Cleveland.

I'm not 100% against signing Biyombo, but I think the size of any deal should be made with the assumption that he will be a backup.  I wouldn't gamble on giving him a deal that will make him either an overpaid backup or an underpaid starter, or at least not until superior options such as Asik find other homes.

[LarBrd33]

I'd need some help understanding what 28 year old Asik has that 22 year old Biyombo doesn't. 

Biyombo isn't bad, but Asik is an elite rebounder (I feel pretty comfortable calling him a top five rebounder in the NBA).  Asik is a significantly better passer.  Asik is a clear starter in the league, albeit one who probably can't handle playing more than 30 minutes per game.  I also feel that the Celtics need a steady veteran and want the Celtics to upgrade the frontcourt with an above-average starter in the 27-30 age range who can compensate for what I thought was a clear lack of poise that the team demonstrated in multiple third quarters against Cleveland.

I'm not 100% against signing Biyombo, but I think the size of any deal should be made with the assumption that he will be a backup.  I wouldn't gamble on giving him a deal that will make him either an overpaid backup or an underpaid starter, or at least not until superior options such as Asik find other homes.

What's interesting about Asik is that his defensive rating is actually surprisingly pretty poor.  Rating of 105 last season... Again, I'm not sure how much we're supposed to read into that stat, but I could have sworn defensive rating was the main thing people kept harping on when Asik was toiling away on Chicago's bench.

You're right he's probably a better rebounder.  Per-36 rating of 13-14 boards.  Compared to Biyombo who has a per-36 of 12 (which is still better than anyone on our team).   Biyombo gets a lot more blocks and has a better defensive rating.   Interestingly enough, Willie Cauley Stein seems like he might be a pretty terrible rebounder.  He spent 3 years in college and averaged about 6 boards per game. 

Kevin Love is still my pipe dream this summer.  Love is one of the best rebounders in the entire league.  If you had him covering boards, maybe you can get away with a Biyombo or WCS.  FWIW, Biyombo has gets more rebounds per-36 (12) than Sully (10), Zeller (10) or Oly ( ... so he's probably an upgrade on that end.

[colincb]

Advanced stats breakdown between Asik and Biyombo:

http://bkref.com/tiny/XXxGk

Decent edge for Asik if you look at their career numbers.  Biyombo's numbers this year were better, however:

http://bkref.com/tiny/PIGZV

I'd look at the +/- numbers along with the rating numbers and give a more credence to the +/-.  There are a lot of assumptions that go into the ORtg and DRtg stats. In particular, Biyombo's offensive rating is very biased by being a big who gets all his offense off dunks, but who has low usage. They don't pass the ball to him for a reason. Biyombo's going to look like he's a decent offensive player, but he's just the opposite as his offensive +/- and 4.0 PPG attest and it's tough to see Biyombo ever being much better when Lowe calls for him to get the ball out of his hands to others as a way to improve and thus avoid turnovers and taking shots.

[LooseCannon]

What's interesting about Asik is that his defensive rating is actually surprisingly pretty poor.  Rating of 105 last season... Again, I'm not sure how much we're supposed to read into that stat, but I could have sworn defensive rating was the main thing people kept harping on when Asik was toiling away on Chicago's bench.

Defensive rating is stat that has to be considered in context.  It's sort of like raw +/-.  Asik's defensive rating has consistently been better than the team's overall defensive rating, so he is usually one of his team's better defenders.  When he was on the Rockets with Dwight Howard, he arguably had a more significant impact on lowering the team's defensive rating than Howard did.  In New Orleans, there's a reasonable argument that the team's defense was poor because Monty Williams was an idiot coach who deserved to be fired.

[crimson_stallion]

I'd need some help understanding what 28 year old Asik has that 22 year old Biyombo doesn't. 

Biyombo isn't bad, but Asik is an elite rebounder (I feel pretty comfortable calling him a top five rebounder in the NBA).  Asik is a significantly better passer.  Asik is a clear starter in the league, albeit one who probably can't handle playing more than 30 minutes per game.  I also feel that the Celtics need a steady veteran and want the Celtics to upgrade the frontcourt with an above-average starter in the 27-30 age range who can compensate for what I thought was a clear lack of poise that the team demonstrated in multiple third quarters against Cleveland.

I'm not 100% against signing Biyombo, but I think the size of any deal should be made with the assumption that he will be a backup.  I wouldn't gamble on giving him a deal that will make him either an overpaid backup or an underpaid starter, or at least not until superior options such as Asik find other homes.

Mostly agree, except for the "Asik is a clear starter" part.   I think Asik is a fringe starter.  He's basically a 7'0" Reggie Evans.

If you're starting center is Omer Asik, then chances are you'll never compete for a title in your life.  I seriously doubt that any team will ever legitimately contend for a title with Omer Asik as it's starting center.   Not unless you have Cleveland Cavs (Lebron/Irving/Love) levels of scoring talent around him. 

Although that said, he's a very good fringe starter.  I'd say he's a tier 1 fringe starter - the highest calibre of fringe starter lol

[Celtics18]

According to BasketballReference, only ten players listed as 22 or younger for the 2014-2015 season accumulated more total winshares than Bismack Biyombo.

Despite having already played four years in the NBA, I firmly believe that Bismack is still young enough to be considered a developing prospect.  It's not like his tenure as a pro has been all bad.  He's had his moments, particularly defensively.

I know that someone suggested paying him $40 million over 4 years.  That seems a bit steep to me, but something in the $6 to $8 million per year is something that could be worth taking a chance on.

At that price, even if he never develops beyond where he is right now, it would probably be worth it. 

For argument's sake, let's say he did become a Celtic this off-season, played twenty-five minutes a game, and our defense improved to top ten in the league over the course of the season.

He'd be hailed as a hero . . . at least by me he would. 

[LooseCannon]

I'd need some help understanding what 28 year old Asik has that 22 year old Biyombo doesn't. 

Biyombo isn't bad, but Asik is an elite rebounder (I feel pretty comfortable calling him a top five rebounder in the NBA).  Asik is a significantly better passer.  Asik is a clear starter in the league, albeit one who probably can't handle playing more than 30 minutes per game.  I also feel that the Celtics need a steady veteran and want the Celtics to upgrade the frontcourt with an above-average starter in the 27-30 age range who can compensate for what I thought was a clear lack of poise that the team demonstrated in multiple third quarters against Cleveland.

I'm not 100% against signing Biyombo, but I think the size of any deal should be made with the assumption that he will be a backup.  I wouldn't gamble on giving him a deal that will make him either an overpaid backup or an underpaid starter, or at least not until superior options such as Asik find other homes.

Mostly agree, except for the "Asik is a clear starter" part.   I think Asik is a fringe starter.  He's basically a 7'0" Reggie Evans.

If you're starting center is Omer Asik, then chances are you'll never compete for a title in your life.  I seriously doubt that any team will ever legitimately contend for a title with Omer Asik as it's starting center.   Not unless you have Cleveland Cavs (Lebron/Irving/Love) levels of scoring talent around him. 

Although that said, he's a very good fringe starter.  I'd say he's a tier 1 fringe starter - the highest calibre of fringe starter lol

I have a hard time believing that a guy who is an elite rebounder and an elite defensive center (and by elite, I mean, top five in the NBA) is a fringe starter.

[vjcsmoke]

Just calling it now. I have it on good authority the Cs org feels they can work him into a better, more rounded player, and therefore leverage his shotblocking ability more consistently. If they strike out on a marquee big man early in FA, look for this to happen.

He sucks.  No seriously.  Undersized and no offensive game.  I don't see Biyombo coming here unless we trade all our power forwards.  He has a center's game in a power forward's body.