Should we wait till 2016 to make fireworks in Free agency?

[Celtics#18]

Should we wait till 2016 to make fireworks in Free agency?

[guava_wrench]

No. If a top guy wants to sign, sign him. If not, there is no need to force the issue.

[Moranis]

yes

[wdleehi]

Swing for the fences on star players now.  If they miss out, there is still the following season.


Do not just overpay OK to good players. 

[Future Celtics Owner]

I believe so. In 2016 I believe we will be able to sign 2 max players. That fact alone may help us recruit top level talent.

hoopshype has been wrong lately. what would our salary situation be in 2016? Also that's when G. Wallace's contract is up.

[saltlover]

I believe so. In 2016 I believe we will be able to sign 2 max players. That fact alone may help us recruit top level talent.

hoopshype has been wrong lately. what would our salary situation be in 2016? Also that's when G. Wallace's contract is up.

If we signed no one long term this offseason, we'd have about $55 million in cap room, not counting holds for Sullinger, Zeller, and Turner,  and pending where several of our draft picks end up.  Also this assumes Crowder is not retained.

Personally I think it foolish to believe you're going to get two free agents to come here in 2016.  Every team is going to have a lot of cap room.  This offseason present a better opportunity.  If we miss, then try next year, but I don't see us successfully getting two free agents next year if we are unable to sell one this year.

[jonaslopes]

Swing for the fences on star players now.  If they miss out, there is still the following season.


Do not just overpay OK to good players.

This is the point for me. We should try. I don't think we have any chance with Butler or Kawhi. But let's try. And if we can't get them, give up.

The most dangerous thing right now is to overpay "good but not really capable of really change things players" like Monroe or Draymond Green. The risk is use our cap space without becoming a serious contender. If we can sign a really great player I'd rather draft young prospects, keep developing our guys and wait until 2016.

[Evantime34]

No we should not. With the cap explosion the majority of teams will have cap space next season.

Use the cap space this offseason when cap space is more of advantage.

To be clear i'm not for overpaying players to use cap space, but I would rather they take on someone else's bad salary (with them throwing in a pick or a young player) than just letting the cap space sit.

[saltlover]

Also, I'm absolutely for "overpaying" players.  How do you think you sign anyone who's salary isn't capped by the max?  You pay them the most money.  Incredibly rare is the time a player accepts less money -- and if they do, there's usually some other reason, like chasing a championship, which we can't exactly sell a player on for next year.

Additionally, I think are three other good arguments to not be afraid of "overpaying" this year or next:

1) With the cap spike upcoming, teams will pay more in year 1 to the current class of free agents, factoring in their price on the open market in 2016.  The cap will rise 40%.  Player salaries will rise a commensurate amount.  A player worth $10 mil this year could be worth $14 mil in 2016.  Is it overpaying if you give him $12 mil in 2015?

2) Siccessful draft picks like Marcus Smart can subsidize the salaries of other players.  Smart is giving production at least equivalent to the MLE, for $2 million less.  Sullinger, when healthy, produces more than his $2 million salary next year.  Those savings give us the freedom to overpay a bit on veteran free agents.  We have a lot of draft picks the next two years -- this gives us more cushion to go extra high on a free agent.

3) The CBA will end after the 2016 season. After the prior two CBAs were signed, an amnesty provision was included.  If we really miss on a signing, it is likely the Celtics can fix the problem before the 2017 season using the amnesty (which the C's have not before used).

Note: I'm not advocating to sign any old free agent.  But if there's a player that the Celtics want to go after, who is not a "max" player, they should not be afraid to go a little high on the offer.

[Evantime34]

Also, I'm absolutely for "overpaying" players.  How do you think you sign anyone who's salary isn't capped by the max?  You pay them the most money.  Incredibly rare is the time a player accepts less money -- and if they do, there's usually some other reason, like chasing a championship, which we can't exactly sell a player on for next year.

Additionally, I think are three other good arguments to not be afraid of "overpaying" this year or next:

1) With the cap spike upcoming, teams will pay more in year 1 to the current class of free agents, factoring in their price on the open market in 2016.  The cap will rise 40%.  Player salaries will rise a commensurate amount.  A player worth $10 mil this year could be worth $14 mil in 2016.  Is it overpaying if you give him $12 mil in 2015?

2) Siccessful draft picks like Marcus Smart can subsidize the salaries of other players.  Smart is giving production at least equivalent to the MLE, for $2 million less.  Sullinger, when healthy, produces more than his $2 million salary next year.  Those savings give us the freedom to overpay a bit on veteran free agents.  We have a lot of draft picks the next two years -- this gives us more cushion to go extra high on a free agent.

3) The CBA will end after the 2016 season. After the prior two CBAs were signed, an amnesty provision was included.  If we really miss on a signing, it is likely the Celtics can fix the problem before the 2017 season using the amnesty (which the C's have not before used).

Note: I'm not advocating to sign any old free agent.  But if there's a player that the Celtics want to go after, who is not a "max" player, they should not be afraid to go a little high on the offer.

It's hard because overpaying is a subjective term. In general if multiple teams make a guy an offer then whoever signs him with the highest offer didn't overpay, they just paid the amount that the market required.

What I don't want to see is us paying the max to players of medium quality just so that use our money before the big cap spike happens.

[saltlover]

Also, I'm absolutely for "overpaying" players.  How do you think you sign anyone who's salary isn't capped by the max?  You pay them the most money.  Incredibly rare is the time a player accepts less money -- and if they do, there's usually some other reason, like chasing a championship, which we can't exactly sell a player on for next year.

Additionally, I think are three other good arguments to not be afraid of "overpaying" this year or next:

1) With the cap spike upcoming, teams will pay more in year 1 to the current class of free agents, factoring in their price on the open market in 2016.  The cap will rise 40%.  Player salaries will rise a commensurate amount.  A player worth $10 mil this year could be worth $14 mil in 2016.  Is it overpaying if you give him $12 mil in 2015?

2) Siccessful draft picks like Marcus Smart can subsidize the salaries of other players.  Smart is giving production at least equivalent to the MLE, for $2 million less.  Sullinger, when healthy, produces more than his $2 million salary next year.  Those savings give us the freedom to overpay a bit on veteran free agents.  We have a lot of draft picks the next two years -- this gives us more cushion to go extra high on a free agent.

3) The CBA will end after the 2016 season. After the prior two CBAs were signed, an amnesty provision was included.  If we really miss on a signing, it is likely the Celtics can fix the problem before the 2017 season using the amnesty (which the C's have not before used).

Note: I'm not advocating to sign any old free agent.  But if there's a player that the Celtics want to go after, who is not a "max" player, they should not be afraid to go a little high on the offer.

It's hard because overpaying is a subjective term. In general if multiple teams make a guy an offer then whoever signs him with the highest offer didn't overpay, they just paid the amount that the market required.

What I don't want to see is us paying the max to players of medium quality just so that use our money before the big cap spike happens.

Medium-quality is also a subjective term.  But I'm fine with giving someone the max this year who might've been a $12 million player last year, if that player fills a team need (small forward and defensive anchor big man being my opinions of the two largest needs on the team).  We have a limited amount of roster spaces to fill over the next two seasons, and a lot of resources like cap room and draft picks that enable and subsidize large contracts

Good cap management is important, but it can be a wasted opportunity if you sit on it waiting for the perfect deal.

[konkmv]

i think if ainge finds another... isaiah, he will sign him... it depends what you can get... i expect to draft at least 2 good players with our 4 picks and sign 2 good free agents... next step playoffs

[Evantime34]

Also, I'm absolutely for "overpaying" players.  How do you think you sign anyone who's salary isn't capped by the max?  You pay them the most money.  Incredibly rare is the time a player accepts less money -- and if they do, there's usually some other reason, like chasing a championship, which we can't exactly sell a player on for next year.

Additionally, I think are three other good arguments to not be afraid of "overpaying" this year or next:

1) With the cap spike upcoming, teams will pay more in year 1 to the current class of free agents, factoring in their price on the open market in 2016.  The cap will rise 40%.  Player salaries will rise a commensurate amount.  A player worth $10 mil this year could be worth $14 mil in 2016.  Is it overpaying if you give him $12 mil in 2015?

2) Siccessful draft picks like Marcus Smart can subsidize the salaries of other players.  Smart is giving production at least equivalent to the MLE, for $2 million less.  Sullinger, when healthy, produces more than his $2 million salary next year.  Those savings give us the freedom to overpay a bit on veteran free agents.  We have a lot of draft picks the next two years -- this gives us more cushion to go extra high on a free agent.

3) The CBA will end after the 2016 season. After the prior two CBAs were signed, an amnesty provision was included.  If we really miss on a signing, it is likely the Celtics can fix the problem before the 2017 season using the amnesty (which the C's have not before used).

Note: I'm not advocating to sign any old free agent.  But if there's a player that the Celtics want to go after, who is not a "max" player, they should not be afraid to go a little high on the offer.

It's hard because overpaying is a subjective term. In general if multiple teams make a guy an offer then whoever signs him with the highest offer didn't overpay, they just paid the amount that the market required.

What I don't want to see is us paying the max to players of medium quality just so that use our money before the big cap spike happens.

Medium-quality is also a subjective term.  But I'm fine with giving someone the max this year who might've been a $12 million player last year, if that player fills a team need (small forward and defensive anchor big man being my opinions of the two largest needs on the team).  We have a limited amount of roster spaces to fill over the next two seasons, and a lot of resources like cap room and draft picks that enable and subsidize large contracts

Good cap management is important, but it can a wasted opportunity if you sit on it waiting for the perfect deal.

It's so difficult to discuss this in grand terms. I'm sure there are $12 MM guys this year that I would be fine paying the max to in the offseason.

Here's an example: on Simmons podcast earlier in the week he said before Wes Matthews got hurt he was looking at a 5 year $ 100 MM contract. Even though that seems too high, I'd much rather have Wes at $20 a year (pretending he didn't get hurt) than say Lou Williams and Jared Dudley for $10 MM each. With the cap jumping up like this even a bad max contract doesn't hamstring you like it used to.

Honestly, I could get behind the C's giving the max to  the following
Kawhi
Aldridge
Knight
Gasol
Jordan
Green
Monroe
Love
Butler
Jefferson

and big contracts to
Danny Green
Wes Matthews
Jackson
Harris
Asik
Hibbert
Millsap

With the way the cap is trending I wouldn't be surprised if the guys on the second list got the max or close to it as well.

[saltlover]

Medium-quality is also a subjective term.  But I'm fine with giving someone the max this year who might've been a $12 million player last year, if that player fills a team need (small forward and defensive anchor big man being my opinions of the two largest needs on the team).  We have a limited amount of roster spaces to fill over the next two seasons, and a lot of resources like cap room and draft picks that enable and subsidize large contracts

Good cap management is important, but it can a wasted opportunity if you sit on it waiting for the perfect deal.

It's so difficult to discuss this in grand terms. I'm sure there are $12 MM guys this year that I would be fine paying the max to in the offseason.

Here's an example: on Simmons podcast earlier in the week he said before Wes Matthews got hurt he was looking at a 5 year $ 100 MM contract. Even though that seems too high, I'd much rather have Wes at $20 a year (pretending he didn't get hurt) than say Lou Williams and Jared Dudley for $10 MM each. With the cap jumping up like this even a bad max contract doesn't hamstring you like it used to.

Honestly, I could get behind the C's giving the max to  the following
Kawhi
Aldridge
Knight
Gasol
Jordan
Green
Monroe
Love
Butler
Jefferson

and big contracts to
Danny Green
Wes Matthews
Jackson
Harris
Asik
Hibbert
Millsap

With the way the cap is trending I wouldn't be surprised if the guys on the second list got the max or close to it as well.

To clarify a bit further, the C's only have 1-3 open roster spots, depending how wedded they are to their 2nd round picks.  So yeah, I'm not talking about getting Dudley.  I'm talking probably about giving one of the guys on your second list max dollars (without going through every name on it), or near-max, because I don't want to be stuck going after the Dudley's and Biybombo's of the world. That's they type of of overpaying I'm not afraid of (and again, not debating the specific players on your lists).

[mef730]

If we can find the right player who is willing to sign a long-term contract (or a cheaper "good" player on a one-year), sure, why not?  But I don't think that many of the players that we would want are going to be available for our price and time-frame.

Mike